Heri's video demonstration of the 3-stage window opening method is brilliant. His seperate hypothesis that the child walks towards the window is incorrect as it reverses the natural instinct to move away from danger. The child would certainly have moved away from the danger into another room.
If children ran towards danger it would make the game of monster (described in the files) an absolutely pointless non-starter wouldn't it?
I know you put a great deal of thought into your posts using the little evidence we have to build a workable hypothesis.
I tremble a little if I digress from Heri’s meticulous research all of which I agree is brilliant.
I think the abduction was planned.
I base this opinion on the known witness statements describing men observing apartment 5a. Too many to be discarded.
I also think the balcony where the cigarette butts were found might well have been used as an observation post … Heri has posted photographs which show the panoramic view of the crime scene from that position.
I think the timing of phone pings were communications relaying information about the family’s movements.
Consider this, please.
Abductor enters apartment via the sliding patio door (or front door) immediately Dr McCann leaves having made his check.
In seconds s/he is in child bedroom; ensures window is unlocked, may open it, may raise the shutter … but it is likely an accomplice may do that from outside while inside, Madeleine is sedated.
The abductor lifts Madeleine from her bed, crosses the room and passes her to accomplice who makes good the escape either to nearby accommodation but more likely to a vehicle.
Abductor makes quick visual check to ensure s/he has left no forensic trace and exits via a door unencumbered by the burden of the child and makes good a separate escape.
It is all down to planning and precision; perhaps the original plan included lowering the blind and closing and locking the window.
That would have delayed discovery, and Madeleine might not have been missed till the morning giving them a bigger window for escape.
However the suspicion and confusion engendered by the open window leading to the "staged abduction theory" must have left them delerious with joy when the spotlight was focused on Madeleine's parents and not them.