Did the McCann"s sudden flight from Portugal engender suspicion?

[Carana]

As far as the progress of the investigation into Madeleine’s disappearance is concerned, I don’t think there would have been much difference, too many elementary mistakes had been made for any more progress towards finding her to be made.

As far as the investigation into Madeleine’s parents is concerned … I do not think that would have happened.

The ‘honour’ of the PJ would not have been allegedly impugned.

The dogs would not have been brought in and allegedly alerted.

The hire car would not have been hired.

The second mistaken Smith sighting would not have occurred.

The previous three statements would have meant that the McCanns would not have been made arguidos.

It is possible Dr Amaral might not have been removed from the case when he was and he would not have written his book or made his documentary.

… and no-one would be trying to find out what happened to Madeleine now.

Not sure about the dogs.

Harrison may still have offered to do a scoping exercise on the search, in which case the dogs may still have been taken out and alerted to 5A. As Amaral suspected the parents from the start, that might well have been enough for the McCanns to be made arguidos (at the time).

[Carana]

It's a little unfair to take my post apart from the context of Brietta's post, which I was responding to.

I was comparing actual events with Brietta's hypothesis of the way things might have panned out ...

Sorry. I keep forgetting about this damned one-quote restriction.

[ferryman]

Sorry. I keep forgetting about this damned one-quote restriction.

No problem.

Adding to Misty's question, if the McCanns had returned early, might things have worked out different for Robert Murat?

Better, or worse?

[Carana]

If the McCanns had gone home early and had just waited quietly for any news, then the media frenzy would probably have died down. However, I find it unlikely that the mere fact of having to go back due to work / financial commitments would have stopped their determination to mount their awareness campaign, or to find the means to fly out to try to get updates, all of which would still have kept the media going.

If they had gone home, would that have affected the extent of involvement of the UK police agencies? LP would still have had its major incident room, but if the various other ones had been more passive, Harrison may not have been aware that more could be done in the actual search, in which case the dogs would probably not have gone out.

[Carana]

No problem.

Adding to Misty's question, if the McCanns had returned early, might things have worked out different for Robert Murat?

Better, or worse?

I was wondering about that as well.

That might depend on whether the dogs would have gone out or not. If they hadn't, Murat would probably have remained the only arguido and would probably have been even more demonised by the media. If that were the case, he might well have been a scapegoat and found himself in a Cipriano-style situation.

[ferryman]

I was wondering about that as well.

That might depend on whether the dogs would have gone out or not. If they hadn't, Murat would probably have remained the only arguido and would probably have been even more demonised by the media. If that were the case, he might well have been a scapegoat and found himself in a Cipriano-style situation.

I think, possibly, the dogs might still have gone out to inspect the holiday apartments and Murat's place ...

[Brietta]

If the McCanns had gone home early and had just waited quietly for any news, then the media frenzy would probably have died down. However, I find it unlikely that the mere fact of having to go back due to work / financial commitments would have stopped their determination to mount their awareness campaign, or to find the means to fly out to try to get updates, all of which would still have kept the media going.

If they had gone home, would that have affected the extent of involvement of the UK police agencies? LP would still have had its major incident room, but if the various other ones had been more passive, Harrison may not have been aware that more could be done in the actual search, in which case the dogs would probably not have gone out.

Carana said
“However, I find it unlikely that the mere fact of having to go back due to work / financial commitments would have stopped their determination to mount their awareness campaign, or to find the means to fly out to try to get updates, all of which would still have kept the media going.”

That is because you have looked at everything concerning the case with an open mind; you have not been taken in by the propaganda and you have understood the meaning of the complete results from forensics … and have made your conclusion that they are innocent of involvement in Madeleine’s disappearance.

Carana said
“If the McCanns had gone home early and had just waited quietly for any news, then the media frenzy would probably have died down.”
 
I believe that is how they would have reacted if they had been guilty in any way. 

They would have kept their heads down; made their excuses and got on with life. 
They could have forestalled media investigation by using the necessity to get on with life for the twins and asking for the privacy to do so.


As far as Leicestershire police are concerned … I think the liaison officers sent out did a remarkable job … but I think those at the top of the tree could have done a lot more in the situation and I think their handling of the media left a lot of hostages to fortune and let the McCanns down badly … I base this opinion on the Baggott and Lawton testimony given at the Leveson Inquiry. 

[Alice Purjorick]

Carana said
“However, I find it unlikely that the mere fact of having to go back due to work / financial commitments would have stopped their determination to mount their awareness campaign, or to find the means to fly out to try to get updates, all of which would still have kept the media going.”

That is because you have looked at everything concerning the case with an open mind; you have not been taken in by the propaganda and you have understood the meaning of the complete results from forensics … and have made your conclusion that they are innocent of involvement in Madeleine’s disappearance.

Carana said
“If the McCanns had gone home early and had just waited quietly for any news, then the media frenzy would probably have died down.”
 
I believe that is how they would have reacted if they had been guilty in any way. 

They would have kept their heads down; made their excuses and got on with life. 
They could have forestalled media investigation by using the necessity to get on with life for the twins and asking for the privacy to do so.


As far as Leicestershire police are concerned … I think the liaison officers sent out did a remarkable job … but I think those at the top of the tree could have done a lot more in the situation and I think their handling of the media left a lot of hostages to fortune and let the McCanns down badly … I base this opinion on the Baggott and Lawton testimony given at the Leveson Inquiry.

You mean in your opinion it was not acceptable to straight bat it, saying the case was a Portuguese investigation and they
[the Leicestershire Police] could divulge nothing?.

[Brietta]

I think, possibly, the dogs might still have gone out to inspect the holiday apartments and Murat's place ...

With the parents out of the equation … if there was a person who lived close by and in the direction being taken by a man seen walking while carrying a child; whose home had a convenient crawl space; who had allegedly been seen after the event by many witnesses on the night in question; who was getting first hand information from witnesses; whose computer had been seized and leaks to the press had mentioned ‘inappropriate’ material; if his demeanour excited enough suspicion for it to be reported … and if the police firmly believed he was the perpetrator … I think it feasible to suppose that the dogs and Hans, whether clever or dumb might very well have ‘alerted’ in a place associated with the suspect.

[Brietta]

You mean in your opinion it was not acceptable to straight bat it, saying the case was a Portuguese investigation and they
[the Leicestershire Police] could divulge nothing?.

Allowing mistaken or incomplete forensics to be stated as fact ... 100% MADELEINE'S DNA ... found in hire car, complete with blood and body fluids ... was absolutely shameful, in my opinion.

It should also be remembered that there was no need for judicial secrecy in Madeleine's case ... a missing person investigation being one of the exemptions.

[Alice Purjorick]

Allowing mistaken or incomplete forensics to be stated as fact ... 100% MADELEINE'S DNA ... found in hire car, complete with blood and body fluids ... was absolutely shameful, in my opinion.

It should also be remembered that there was no need for judicial secrecy in Madeleine's case ... a missing person investigation being one of the exemptions.

I don't follow.
Do you think the LP stance of "nothing to do with us pal we can't comment" was unreasonable or do believe LP should have shot a line to the UK press ?
Frankly in their position of not knowing the full SP I would have done the same as them.

[Brietta]

A very thought-provoking question, Misty. 

IMO,

- The media presence in PdL might have dropped off sooner, but Lori Campbell's splash about Murat (and the interest in Malinka at the time) would have kept the media there after the McCanns had gone. Both of them might have been hassled by the media even more than they already were without the McCanns to provide frequent photos for their media pieces.

- Unless the McCanns felt that they could be kept fully informed by the UK FLOs, they would probably still have found the means to return on occasion to request updates, so the media would have been rushing over each time as well.

- Watching police movements to cover those angles would probably still have led to the splash about long "boozy" lunches, which would still have disgruntled the police and stirred anti-UK sentiment.

- Amaral never got beyond the fact that there was no visible sign of forced entry. The family's initial assumption that the windows had been jemmied was considered as "proof" of a faked abduction. He still wouldn't have considered the possibility of a duplicate key or entry with a tool smaller than a full-sized credit card, nor even the possibility of entry/exit via the patio door.

- He would still have been convinced that there was a suspicious connection between Jane Tanner and Murat (Murat's relative had a house in Exeter and JT/Russ had just moved there, ergo they must have known each other, despite the fact that it is a city with a population of well over 100k; and because two people of the same haplotypes were found in a Burgau flat). He would still have been convinced that Jane invented the Tannerman sighting and falsely identified Murat (which she never did, but anyway).

- The Smith family would probably still have reported having seen a man carrying a child and may still have gone back over to make statements and show the PJ exactly where they saw him. However, there may well have been less of a media fuss highlighting the McCanns coming down the plane steps as they wouldn't have been arguidos, and so Martin Smith may never have had that sudden doubt.

- If the McCanns had gone home, would the UK police involvement would have been different? If it had been the same, Amaral may still have erupted. Would he have still been booted off the case? Possibly, although I'm not convinced that his rant against the UK police was the only reason. The extensive embarrassing leaks might have been a factor, and there would have been fewer half-truths to flutter out of PJ windows.

- Would the initial PJ team still have drip-fed half-baked theories and half-truths to the PT media? Quite probably, but not as many. The lurid stories about what was allegedly found as "evidence" of a dead body in the Scenic wouldn't have seen the light of day, although they may have invented others.

- If they hadn't been in the villa, there wouldn't have been bizarre suspicions about "restricted" CEOP booklets (which, if he'd checked, he might have noticed were not restricted at all and are freely available for download on the Internet), amongst other things.

- If the dogs had come over anyway, they would have still searched Murat's place, 5A and the McCanns' second apartment. The fact that Eddie barked in 5A would still have convinced him that she'd died there and that therefore the McCanns were involved. It is therefore likely that they would still have been made arguidos.

He wouldn't have been able to convince himself that she had been transported in the Scenic (as it wouldn't have been rented) and he might even have had to discard his fridge theory, although that's not certain. There would have been no strange dog inspection of clothes in the gym, nor of CuddleCat in the villa.

On the other hand, if it hadn't been such a high profile case, I wonder if the dogs would have come over at all. Possibly, if Harrison had still offered to help review the previous searches and offer a new perspective.

If the dogs hadn't come over, then there would have been no "evidence", flimsy as it was, to make the McCanns arguidos.

- As Murat would probably have been an arguido anyway, and Amaral didn't seem to have been actively investigating anyone else beyond the parents / T7, Murat would either have to have been charged within six months or the investigation shelved. As there was no evidence against him, it would have been shelved... providing he wasn't given the slippery stair treatment.

If Murat had somehow been coerced into a "confession" with a staged reconstruction, he might have ended up in jail for something he didn't do and the McCanns would never have been able to push for the case to be reviewed, let alone reopened.

- Again, with fewer half-truths for the initial PJ team to leak about the McCanns, e.g., what the dog alerts meant and the garbled understanding of forensics, Amaral may not have been booted off the case. He might have been left ruminating over seafood dinners about his latest successful investigation.

He might, in fact, have been made head of Faro...

Meanwhile, Madeleine would still be missing... with no hope of ever being found.

I don’t think the allegations of police bungling would have gone away and the criticism would have made the PJ more anxious to have a conclusion. 

I think that despite his very powerful local contacts and the place of the family in society, Robert Murat would have had a very tough time of it when trying to prove his innocence.

As the only arguido, with the full spotlight of the Portuguese and British press on him and the PJ investigation concentrating solely on him … I think the best he could have hoped for would be that the investigation would have been ‘timed out’ because there was no evidence against him but he would then have had to live under a cloud of suspicion forever.

As you say ... no-one would have been trying to find out what happened to Madeleine.

[pathfinder73]

edited - see strange witness statements thread.

[Brietta]

I don't follow.
Do you think the LP stance of "nothing to do with us pal we can't comment" was unreasonable or do believe LP should have shot a line to the UK press ?
Frankly in their position of not knowing the full SP I would have done the same as them.

The chief constable of Leicestershire police testified that he knew the forensic results leaked to the Portuguese press … were wrong.  If you agree with his stance on not immediately rectifying this … that is a matter for you.

[Alice Purjorick]

The chief constable of Leicestershire police testified that he knew the forensic results leaked to the Portuguese press … were wrong.  If you agree with his stance on not immediately rectifying this … that is a matter for you.

Indeed it is. What I would have done is phone the geezer in charge of the investigation in order to have quiet word in his shell like.
Neither you nor I know whether or not the LP ACC did so.
But informing the press under those circumstances is a definite "no no".
It strikes me that the "supporters"  frequently like to have their cake and eat it wrt the police and press.