Are there other cases of an abductor carrying a child through streets?

[pegasus]

Temp and wind . Not cold, but chilly wind in a downward direction as Pegasus said.......If coming down the chimney it  might cause the door to slam. Notice how the wind direction changed at 22hrs approx.

The air coming in the window and up the chimney slammed the door.

Back to the study of other cases, pathfinder's theory starts with a method which hypothetically fits with hundreds of past cases of the same type as pathfinder's theory, then suddenly for no logical reason switches to a method which goes against all the instincts of a perp and has never happened in those hundreds of past cases.

[lordpookles]

What is Pathfinders theory in brief? Just curious...

[sadie]

The air coming in the window and up the chimney slammed the door.

Back to the study of other cases, pathfinder's theory starts with a statistically likely method which fits with hundreds of past cases of the same type as that theory, then suddenly for no logical reason switches to a method which goes against all the instincts of a perp and has never happened in those hundreds of past cases.

Simples, pegasus

The getaway car didn't arrive.  He was forced to walk.  Loads of alleyways tho.

Simples, really it is .... IMO

[pathfinder73]

The air coming in the window and up the chimney slammed the door.

Back to the study of other cases, pathfinder's theory starts with a method which hypothetically fits with hundreds of past cases of the same type as pathfinder's theory, then suddenly for no logical reason switches to a method which goes against all the instincts of a perp and has never happened in those hundreds of past cases.

That's because they are concealed and moved to a vehicle in close proximity and away. This was two moves at different times to keep an alibi (no vehicle and it's not unusual to see kids being carried by parents re night creche) but unfortunately I can't track mobiles for locations so it's theories instead from that sighting. SY may think the child was moved inside because no trace has been found outside i.e. they had help to conceal the child. But the files don't reveal how thorough these outdoor areas were searched with the dogs e.g. the top of the hill vast area behind the cliffs etc.

[pegasus]

Simples, pegasus

The getaway car didn't arrive.  He was forced to walk.  Loads of alleyways tho.

Simples, really it is .... IMO

Let's compare your theory with another case where a getaway driver didn't arrive?
Which case do you suggest?

[pegasus]

@Pathfinder if you were to get distracted for five minutes to read just two recent UK cases, one involving an outdoor walk of just a few metres, the other an outdoor walk of over a kilometre, you might find that unconcealed carrying as seen by the Irish group is completely ruled out in your type of solution.

[pathfinder73]

@Pathfinder if you were to get distracted for five minutes to read just two recent UK cases, one involving an outdoor walk of just a few metres, the other an outdoor walk of over a kilometre, you might find that unconcealed carrying as seen by the Irish group is completely ruled out in your type of solution.

Different circumstances. Night creche so it's not unusual to see kids being carried at a kids holiday resort. He didn't have any choice unless he wanted her to be found. And she hasn't been found and Smithman hasn't been found either.

[sadie]

Let's compare your theory with another case where a getaway driver didn't arrive?
Which case do you suggest?

No need to Pegasus.  Cases gan be unique.  This one is. 

The one with the little girl being taken from her bath is unique.  Sharon Matthews was unique.  Her mother was after money and laid on a sham abduction / murder

I highly value the sleuthing you do, but you seems to get ideas stuck in your head  ... and this is one of them.  that all cases have to follow the same route.

They dont always.

[pegasus]

No need to Pegasus.  Cases gan be unique.  This one is. 

The one with the little girl being taken from her bath is unique.  Sharon Matthews was unique.  Her mother was after money and laid on a sham abduction / murder

I highly value the sleuthing you do, but you seems to get ideas stuck in your head  ... and this is one of them.  that all cases have to follow the same route.

They dont always.

Reading other cases shows that perp behaviour is very predictable.
Same problem same solution, over and over.
The solution of both types of case virtually never involves uncovered carrying along populated streets and it is literally plain to see the obvious reason why.

[pegasus]

Sadie your theory involves a getaway car disappearing forcing the perp to flee on foot?
Just to show you the huge value of reading other cases here are 3 examples of exactly that happening, from which you may learn the commonest cause of a getaway car disappearing.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2331183/Burger-King-robbery-foiled-employee-steals-getaway-car-hides-it.html
http://www.khou.com/story/news/2014/07/20/11738936/
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2004-01-16/news/0401160234_1_getaway-car-inside-the-restaurant-denny-restaurant
Back to the PDL case, if Smithman was any kind of perp why didn't he cover the child with his black jacket? Why increase risk by deliberately not covering?

[pathfinder73]

That is obvious - not to stand out. Carrying a heavy bundle is suspicious and it is easier to carry her quickly in the way that he did. He didn't want to be stopped that's for certain! Everything had to be done quickly in the two small windows of opportunity. He definitely didn't have time to open window/shutters - his partner did that. He took a quieter dark back street route in the hope of not being seen. He was also going away from the OC and other searchers so he couldn't risk using the direct main road and possibly meeting one. A group of nine saw him when they returned from Kelly's Bar.

[pegasus]

@pathfinder why did your smithman choose to use a route which risked crossing paths with employees who would recognise her?

[pathfinder73]

@pathfinder why did your smithman choose to use a route which risked crossing paths with employees who would recognise her?

Are you kidding? Work shifts don't finish at that time. Where do you think they are at 10pm on a Thursday? Either inside watching tele or at a bar. Not hanging around the dark depressing wasteland. Unfortunately Smithman hadn't mastered the art of invisibility like somebody else and chose the safest quickest route available.

[pegasus]

Are you kidding? Work shifts don't finish at that time. Where do you think they are at 10pm on a Thursday? Either inside watching tele or at a bar. Not hanging around the dark depressing wasteland. Unfortunately Smithman hadn't mastered the art of invisibility like somebody else and chose the safest quickest route available.

At around 10pm some are going out - look at the route from there to mirage it is along your smithman route in reverse direction.

[pegasus]

I don't care how windy it is, the fact is that perps conceal what they transport.
The basic idea for the perp is to prevent peeps seeing exactly what he is transporting.
Therefore the Smith sighting is irrelevant IMO