Perhaps people would care to speculate as to how the investigation would have developed had the McCanns been obliged by work/financial commitments to return to the UK within a week or so of Madeleine's disappearance.
Do you think that the PJ would have tried to develop evidence against the parents in the same fashion 3 months down the line or would the investigation have been quietly scaled right back & quickly shelved?
A very thought-provoking question, Misty.
IMO,
- The media presence in PdL might have dropped off sooner, but Lori Campbell's splash about Murat (and the interest in Malinka at the time) would have kept the media there after the McCanns had gone. Both of them might have been hassled by the media even more than they already were without the McCanns to provide frequent photos for their media pieces.
- Unless the McCanns felt that they could be kept fully informed by the UK FLOs, they would probably still have found the means to return on occasion to request updates, so the media would have been rushing over each time as well.
- Watching police movements to cover those angles would probably still have led to the splash about long "boozy" lunches, which would still have disgruntled the police and stirred anti-UK sentiment.
- Amaral never got beyond the fact that there was no visible sign of forced entry. The family's initial assumption that the windows had been jemmied was considered as "proof" of a faked abduction. He still wouldn't have considered the possibility of a duplicate key or entry with a tool smaller than a full-sized credit card, nor even the possibility of entry/exit via the patio door.
- He would still have been convinced that there was a suspicious connection between Jane Tanner and Murat (Murat's relative had a house in Exeter and JT/Russ had just moved there, ergo they must have known each other, despite the fact that it is a city with a population of well over 100k; and because two people of the same haplotypes were found in a Burgau flat). He would still have been convinced that Jane invented the Tannerman sighting and falsely identified Murat (which she never did, but anyway).
- The Smith family would probably still have reported having seen a man carrying a child and may still have gone back over to make statements and show the PJ exactly where they saw him. However, there may well have been less of a media fuss highlighting the McCanns coming down the plane steps as they wouldn't have been arguidos, and so Martin Smith may never have had that sudden doubt.
- If the McCanns had gone home, would the UK police involvement would have been different? If it had been the same, Amaral may still have erupted. Would he have still been booted off the case? Possibly, although I'm not convinced that his rant against the UK police was the only reason. The extensive embarrassing leaks might have been a factor, and there would have been fewer half-truths to flutter out of PJ windows.
- Would the initial PJ team still have drip-fed half-baked theories and half-truths to the PT media? Quite probably, but not as many. The lurid stories about what was allegedly found as "evidence" of a dead body in the Scenic wouldn't have seen the light of day, although they may have invented others.
- If they hadn't been in the villa, there wouldn't have been bizarre suspicions about "restricted" CEOP booklets (which, if he'd checked, he might have noticed were not restricted at all and are freely available for download on the Internet), amongst other things.
- If the dogs had come over anyway, they would have still searched Murat's place, 5A and the McCanns' second apartment. The fact that Eddie barked in 5A would still have convinced him that she'd died there and that therefore the McCanns were involved. It is therefore likely that they would still have been made arguidos.
He wouldn't have been able to convince himself that she had been transported in the Scenic (as it wouldn't have been rented) and he might even have had to discard his fridge theory, although that's not certain. There would have been no strange dog inspection of clothes in the gym, nor of CuddleCat in the villa.
On the other hand, if it hadn't been such a high profile case, I wonder if the dogs would have come over at all. Possibly, if Harrison had still offered to help review the previous searches and offer a new perspective.
If the dogs hadn't come over, then there would have been no "evidence", flimsy as it was, to make the McCanns arguidos.
- As Murat would probably have been an arguido anyway, and Amaral didn't seem to have been actively investigating anyone else beyond the parents / T7, Murat would either have to have been charged within six months or the investigation shelved. As there was no evidence against him, it would have been shelved... providing he wasn't given the slippery stair treatment.
If Murat had somehow been coerced into a "confession" with a staged reconstruction, he might have ended up in jail for something he didn't do and the McCanns would never have been able to push for the case to be reviewed, let alone reopened.
- Again, with fewer half-truths for the initial PJ team to leak about the McCanns, e.g., what the dog alerts meant and the garbled understanding of forensics, Amaral may not have been booted off the case. He might have been left ruminating over seafood dinners about his latest successful investigation.
He might, in fact, have been made head of Faro...
Meanwhile, Madeleine would still be missing... with no hope of ever being found.
