Author Topic: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?  (Read 180765 times)

0 Members and 6 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #375 on: May 05, 2015, 07:33:06 AM »
I never said that PFinder

You are putting words in my mouth.




But one thing is certain.  Those dogs found NOTHING, ZILCH, NADA to accuse the Mccanns with, let alone convict them.

It is pointless keep going on about them.

Zero Alerts would have meant found nothing.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

OxfordBloo

  • Guest
Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #376 on: May 05, 2015, 07:40:50 AM »
Zero Alerts would have meant found nothing.

And because the dogs have a possibility of error, the existence of alerts can mean nothing there to find.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #377 on: May 05, 2015, 07:43:54 AM »
Zero Alerts would have meant found nothing.

what makes these dogs so useful is what they find...evidence...the alerts themselves are of no value

OxfordBloo

  • Guest
Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #378 on: May 05, 2015, 07:51:27 AM »
what makes these dogs so useful is what they find...evidence...the alerts themselves are of no value

They indicate where probative evidence might be found.

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #379 on: May 05, 2015, 08:58:16 AM »
Did you not read the posts previous? The dogs were sent to Portugal by the Yorkshire police on the recommendation of Mark Harrison. Mr Grime at the time worked for Yorkshire police as the dog handler. Why would HE get paid personally? He was on a salary at the time.  End of. Where is the head banging smiley? Can't find it.

Martin Grime's contract with SYP ended while he was still out there.

SYP would not have sent him out on such a basis.

Offline Carana

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #380 on: May 05, 2015, 09:06:25 AM »
The dog alerts were significant. Both dogs alerted behind the couch in the living room of G5A and to the car. Blood was found, meaning both dogs alerted correctly. Eddie alerted in other places. No blood was found by Keela. Although no hard evidence was found Eddie's alerts shouldn't be ignored because he may have been right.

NO evidence of blood was found. It is an assumption that there was, because that's all Keela was trained to detect. 

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #381 on: May 05, 2015, 09:11:46 AM »
NO evidence of blood was found. It is an assumption that there was, because that's all Keela was trained to detect.

It's perfectly true that the word blood does not feature once in John Lowe's report ...

Offline Carana

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #382 on: May 05, 2015, 09:14:03 AM »
There is an excellent book written by a psychologist who joined a millennial cult in order to do participant observation. The main point of interest was that despite repeated dates identified by the cult leader for the rapture, and such dates being regularly disappointing, the more this happened, the stronger the belief became because they had too much ego identity invested in the belief system and the cost of changing ones mind was almost equivalent to loss of life. So they kept believing beyond rationality.

This case has never had enough evidence to plump for any explanation. Amaral was wrong and the AG was right.

All we are left with is true believers with too much to lose if hey admit their error. The brightest and most moral of the McCann [ censored word ] have quietly slipped away and regained their lives while the true fanatics have gone to twitter.

Fascinating.

That sounds interesting. What's the name of the book?

Offline Carana

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #383 on: May 05, 2015, 09:28:29 AM »
Back on topic.

Copied from another thread:

Grime states that although Keela alerts very specifically to a small area where blood is found, Eddie was trained to alert to the general odour of death in a wider area. This is normal for rescue dogs as they are trained to follow an odour gradient.

The clothes were bundled together and we know that odour transfers from item to item in close proximity.

The 'couple' of alerts are to 5a and to clothes. The clothes had also been in 5a so a single source could have existed.

It is worth remembering that the scientifically determined best estimate for scent dogs is of the order of 80%. Statistically this error rate is increased for tests that require two alerts, the uncertainty increases by the multiple of each individual test, leading to a joint Eddie/Keela alert is 80% of 80%, or 64%. So each of those alerts has a two out of three possibility of being true or more importantly a one on three chance of being wrong.

So we have moved from a contention that there were multiple alerts indicating cadaver odour to the possibility that it was actually a single source detected with an chance of one in three being totally incorrect.

That is the truth value of the dogs.

Ok. So a 64% of correctly alerting to a scent within his training parameters.

Unconscious cueing?
Can unconscious bias be excluded? The inspections weren't double-blind.

Sex fluids?
Some people don't believe that decaying sex fluids are within those parameters... whereas I find the notes of the Jersey alerts to be ambiguous. If that decaying scent is within them, then that adds a different factor as to what he may have correctly alerted to.

Blood?
Grime has stated that the CSI dog (Keela) only reacts to the physical presence of blood. Grime stated that Eddie also reacted to dried blood from a living person, but he did not state that there needed to be a physical presence for him to do so. If a bloodied plaster had been left lying around and removed just before the inspection, Keela wouldn't have reacted, but it's not known whether Eddie would have noticed the airborne scent in the absence of the physical source.

Other decaying human material?
Then there's the possibility that he was reacting to the scent of other decomposing body material (e.g. the hypothetical example of a tiny lump of flesh from a sliced finger). He would be alerting correctly, but the person could still be alive.

Corpse or contaminant?
Then there is the possibility that he was correctly alerting to the residual scent of an entire corpse. That could be the result of a body having physically lain in situ, or it could be something within the scent area that had been in contact with a body at some point. That apartment had gone from residential to a holiday let. There doesn't appear to have been any eliminatory investigation as to where the furniture came from.

Madeleine?
If he had alerted to the residual scent of a dead body, could that have been Madeleine? I have read the literature on various scientific experiments, just as I have read anecdotal accounts mainly promoted by dog handlers.

I don't believe that the possibility can be totally excluded, but the number of VOCs released in the first 1-2 hours are few. And even then scientific experiments conducted in controlled conditions don't mimic everyday reality.

How likely, therefore, is it that Eddie actually did react to a residual scent of a dead Madeleine?

It certainly doesn't appear as simple as missing child + dog alert = dead child.

OxfordBloo

  • Guest
Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #384 on: May 05, 2015, 09:30:32 AM »
That sounds interesting. What's the name of the book?

I'll try to find it. I read it decades ago.

Offline G-Unit

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #385 on: May 05, 2015, 09:41:01 AM »
Martin Grime's contract with SYP ended while he was still out there.

SYP would not have sent him out on such a basis.

Gerald McCann believed he worked for SYP;

I never met nor spoken to Gerald McCann. However I do know that he addressed my head supervisor at the time, the South Yorkshire Head of Police, or Mr. Meredith Hughes.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_GRIMES_RIGATORY.htm
Read and abide by the forum rules.
Result = happy posting.
Ignore and break the rules
Result = edits, deletions and unhappiness
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?board=2.0

OxfordBloo

  • Guest
Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #386 on: May 05, 2015, 09:42:55 AM »
The book is

http://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Prophecy-Fails-Leon-Festinger-ebook/dp/B00CBDCF84/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1430815160&sr=8-2&keywords=festinger

When Prophecy Fails [Kindle Edition]   
Leon Festinger (Author), Henry W. Riecken     (Author), Stanley Schachter   


Academic Papers

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/3709905?uid=3738032&uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21106279120861

Another

   What Really Happens When Prophecy Fails: The Case of Lubavitch.
Dein, Simon (2001)
 Sociology of Religion 62:3: 383-401.
 Based on participant observation in the Stamford Hill Lubavitch community (U.K.). The failure of a messianic prophecy was followed by more proselytizing at the same pace. Members rationally explained the disconfirmation & spiritualized its meaning.
 Associated Search Terms: Participant observation; Disconfirmation; Jewish, Lubavitcher, Great Britain; Cognitive dissonance

   When Prophecy Passes Unnoticed: New Perspectives on Failed Prophecy.
Bader, Christopher D. (1999)
 Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 38:1: 119-131.
 Associated Search Terms: Participant observation; UFO cult; Cognitive dissonance; Disconfirmation

Fifteen Years of Failed Prophecy. Coping with Cognitive Dissonance in a Baha'i Sect.
Balch, Robert W., John Dohn Domitrovich, Barbara Lynn Mahnke, and Vanessa Morrison (1997)
 In Thomas Robbins and Susan J. Palmer (eds.), Millennium, Messiahs, and Mayhem. Contemporary Apocalyptic Movements. New York: Routledge, pp. 73-90.
 Based on 1980-96 participant observation, interviews, & documentary research on an offshoot from Baha'i.
 Associated Search Terms: United States, Montana, Missoula; Millennial; Participant observation; Cognitive dissonance; Baha´is Under the Provisions of the Covenant; Millenarian, U.S.A.

Prophetic Failure: A Re-Testing of the Festinger, Riecken and Schachter Study of Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Cult.
Mahnke, Barbara Lynn (1987)
 Unpublished Master's thesis, University of Montana.
 Associated Search Terms: Millennial; Cognitive dissonance; Millenarian, U.S.A.; Baha´is Under the Provisions of the Covenant


OxfordBloo

  • Guest
Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #387 on: May 05, 2015, 09:46:15 AM »
Gerald McCann believed he worked for SYP;

I never met nor spoken to Gerald McCann. However I do know that he addressed my head supervisor at the time, the South Yorkshire Head of Police, or Mr. Meredith Hughes.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_GRIMES_RIGATORY.htm

Grime's retired just before he left Portugal and before he started in Jersey. Eddie and Keela went out of authentication before he got to Jersey and he would not have been able to use them for police reasons in England, but Jersey did not require certification.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #388 on: May 05, 2015, 09:48:20 AM »
Madeleine: McCanns consult American lawyers over 'cadaver dog' evidence Daily Mail
 
Last updated at 18:07 16 September 2007
 
Kate and Gerry McCann's legal team have consulted the lawyers of an American man accused of murdering his estranged wife in a case where cadaver dog evidence was key, a source said today.
 
Two British sniffer dogs, one capable of detecting blood and human remains, were brought to Portugal in early August.
 
The cadaver dog picked up a "scent of death" on everything from Mrs McCann's clothes to missing Madeleine's favourite soft toy Cuddle Cat, according to reports.
 
During police interviews the McCanns were shown a video of the animal "going crazy" when it approached their Renault Scenic hire car, newspapers have claimed.
 
Leaked reports from the investigation have suggested Madeleine's parents could have accidentally killed her and then disposed of her body using the car.
 
Although they do not know the full details of Portuguese prosecutors' case against them, the McCanns are concerned it may rest on the dog's reaction.
 
They want to highlight the judge's dismissal of cadaver dog evidence in the high-profile Eugene Zapata murder trial in Madison, Wisconsin.
 
The couple's lawyers have already contacted Zapata's defence team, who are now sending their large file on the matter to Britain.
 
Zapata's estranged wife, flight instructor Jeanette Zapata, was 37 when she vanished on October 11 1976 after seeing her three children off to school. Her body has never been found.
 
Detectives suspected Zapata of involvement in her disappearance but did not charge him because of a lack of evidence.
 
Police decided to conduct new searches using cadaver dogs, a new investigative technique, when an old friend of Mrs Zapata contacted them about the case in 2004.
 
Zapata, 68, was charged with first-degree murder last year after the dogs indicated they sniffed human remains in a small basement "crawl space" at the former family home in Madison and other properties linked to him.
 
But Dane County Judge Patrick Fiedler ruled last month that the evidence that led to the charge could not be put before the jury.
 
He said the dogs were too unreliable in detecting the odour of remains and noted that no remains were actually found.
 
The judge agreed with an analysis of the three dogs' track record by Zapata's defence team that found they were incorrect 78 per cent, 71 per cent and 62 per cent of the time.
 
According to the Wisconsin State Journal, Mr Fiedler told the court: "The state has failed to convince me that it's any more reliable than the flip of a coin." Zapata denies murder, and the jury in the case went out on Friday to start considering its verdict.
 
A source close to the McCanns' solicitors said: "The legal team are in touch with the lawyers who represented the defendant in the case.
 
"The court papers, giving the legal submissions, are on their way to the McCann team for consideration.
 
"At the moment there are no formal charges and therefore there is no formal allegation against which the McCann team can work. We are having to work a little bit in the dark.
 
"But given that we understand the central plank of what the police are alleging involves sniffer dogs - albeit British ones which are said to be particularly good - this is important and relevant, and will be raised with the police and brought to the judge's attention."
 
ZAPATA ADMITS KILLING WIFE, GETS 5 YEARS THE FORMER MADISON MAN PLEADS GUILTY TO THE 1976 MURDER.

On Oct. 11, 1976, Eugene Zapata hit his wife on the head with a rectangular paperweight, then strangled her until his hands hurt. He wrapped her body in a tent and buried it.

For more than 30 years, he maintained that Jeanette Zapata just disappeared. He kept the secret until earlier this month, when he confessed to Madison police.

Zapata's confession came Feb. 5. He gave a detailed account, as required under a plea agreement he reached with prosecutors to avoid another trial.

On Monday, Zapata, 69, pleaded guilty to homicide by reckless conduct and was sentenced to the maximum five years in prison, though it's likely he will serve less than that. Zapata's statement to police was described in court Monday by Assistant District Attorney Robert Kaiser.

Zapata was tried in the fall for first-degree murder, but after 30 hours of deliberation, the jury could not reach a verdict and Dane County Circuit Judge Patrick Fiedler declared a mistrial. A second trial was to start next month.

One of Zapata's daughters, Linda Zapata, who testified for the prosecution during his trial, said she forgave her father and expressed relief at knowing what happened to her mother.

"Although I don't condone what you did to Mom, I do forgive you and I love you," she said. "I hope you take this time now as a chance to come clean, ask for and accept forgiveness. You deserve that too."

But her father had nothing to say.

"At this time and at this phase I would have no comment," Zapata said when given the chance to speak.

Zapata, a retired state Department of Transportation worker, was taken from the courtroom in handcuffs and will be taken to Dodge Correctional Institution for assignment to a Wisconsin prison.

STRANGLED WIFE

Kaiser said Zapata, with his lawyers present, gave a statement on Feb. 5 to Madison Police Detective Marianne Flynn Statz in which he talked about going on Oct. 11, 1976, to the home on Indian Trace on Madison's East Side where Jeanette Zapata lived with the couple's three children.

The Zapatas were getting divorced and Zapata wasn't to be at the home, except at times approved by a judge to pick up their children.

"A verbal argument ensued between the defendant and Jeanette Zapata," Kaiser said. The argument became heated but not violent. But after Jeanette Zapata went into the kitchen, Eugene Zapata told police, he picked up a rectangular draftsman's weight, an item used to hold down blueprints.

"He described himself to Detective Statz as 'snapping,'" Kaiser said. He approached Jeanette Zapata from behind and "struck her hard," Kaiser said, probably more than once on the top and back of her head.

"Jeanette Zapata did not see the attack coming," Kaiser said.

She fell to the floor and hit the dishwasher door on the way down, Kaiser said. Then Eugene Zapata strangled her "until his hands hurt," he said. Afterward, he wrapped a cord around her neck, Kaiser said, "to assure himself that she was dead."

Kaiser said Zapata wrapped Jeanette Zapata's body in a poplin tent and took it in his car to a farm field near Madison. In 1977, Zapata bought vacant land in Juneau County and moved her body there, where it stayed until 2005. Then, he and his current wife, Joan, decided to move to Nevada and sell the land.

Zapata dug up Jeanette Zapata's remains and moved them to a storage locker in Sun Prairie with some camping equipment. Later in 2005, he disposed of the remains in several Dumpsters at the Juneau County landfill. District Attorney Brian Blanchard said Monday that although police searched the landfill in 2006, no new search for remains was made after Zapata's statement to Statz.

Although the evidence was excluded from Zapata's first trial, police said corpse-sniffing dogs indicated the scent of human remains at the Indian Trace home and two other homes occupied by Zapata as well as a storage locker and a rental car. Based on Zapata's statement, the locker and car indications were correct.

CLOSURE WANTED

Stephen Hurley, one of Zapata's attorneys, said after the hearing that he couldn't disclose much about how the plea agreement was reached, citing attorney-client privilege. But he said it came about "because everyone wanted to give closure to it."

"Both sides faced a risk were the matter to be retried," Hurley said, "which is generally what occurs with kind of an all-or-nothing proposition such as a first-degree homicide trial. So it was simply, I believe, both sides wanting to give closure to it."

Those sentiments were echoed by Blanchard.

"Part of what happened after the Madison Police Department took a cold case from nowhere to today is the ability now to have the family and friends of Jeanette Zapata know exactly what happened to her," Blanchard said. "That is a huge achievement for justice and closure for the family."

Kaiser said during the hearing that if Zapata had been convicted of first-degree murder during a trial, he could have gone to the grave never telling his family what had happened to Jeanette Zapata.

'CHANCE TO GRIEVE'

Linda Zapata said during her statement in court that her father's interview with police gave herself and others "a precious gift," the chance to grieve and heal.

"Mom deserved the truth about what really happened that morning and I thank you for finally giving her that," she said to her father. "My mom didn't abandon me or my family. You told Detective Statz that mom was a good mother, that she never deserved to die and that you were very sorry. Those words hang with me and give me comfort."

But her brother, Steven, who has defended his father throughout the case, said he is still convinced his father is innocent and pleaded guilty "just for simplicity," and for the sake of his older sister, Christine.

"I guess I want to say I still think he's innocent," Steven Zapata said. "I still love him and support him."\

ZAPATA'S SENTENCE

Eugene Zapata committed his crime in 1976, before Wisconsin enacted its "truth in sentencing" law. Under the old law, Zapata must serve at least one-quarter of his five-year sentence before he is eligible for parole and must be released after serving two-thirds of his sentence. That means he will be free after serving about three years of the five-year sentence.\

ZAPATA TIMELINE

Some key dates surrounding the disappearance and murder of Jeanette Zapata: Dec. 26, 1959: Eugene Zapata and Jeanette Herrling marry. Their first child, Christine, is born in 1960. Two more children, Steven and Linda, follow.

May 12, 1976: Jeanette Zapata serves Eugene Zapata with divorce papers.

May 12-Oct. 11, 1976: Eugene Zapata maintains what prosecutors now label a "stalking diary," following his estranged wife's movements, a romantic relationship she was having, her relationship with their children and even the contents of the trash cans in her home. He also hires a private detective.

Sept. 21, 1976: Court commissioner bars Eugene Zapata from the family home on Indian Trace except for two hours of child visitation on Saturdays.

Oct. 11, 1976: Jeanette Zapata vanishes.

Feb. 27, 1977: Divorce granted with Jeanette Zapata absent. A few days later, Eugene Zapata marries his current wife, Joan.

Nov. 30, 2004: High school friend Peg Weekley, of Oklahoma City, writes to Madison police to ask if they have any news on Jeanette Zapata's disappearance.

Dec. 3, 2004: Madison police restart investigation.

Jan. 12, 2005: Madison police use cadaver dogs to check the basement of Zapata's former home on Indian Trace in Madison. Other cadaver dog searches of that property and other locations take place throughout 2005 and into 2006. The dogs alert to the scent of human remains, but none are found.

April 7-14, 2005: Zapata comes to Wisconsin from his home in Henderson, Nev., cleans out a storage locker and visits the Juneau County Landfill near Mauston.

Aug. 28, 2006: Zapata is charged with first-degree murder in Dane County and is arrested in Nevada.

Sept. 4-17, 2007: Trial is heard, ends in mistrial after jury is deadlocked.

Oct. 2, 2007: Prosecutors say they will retry Zapata.

Monday: Zapata pleads guilty to homicide by reckless conduct and is sentenced to five years in prison.

http://host.madison.com/news/zapata-admits-killing-wife-gets-years-the-former-madison-man/article_3f7a7f4f-cb83-5869-b9c6-23532bc49a4e.html
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Carana

Re: Were the dog alerts in any way significant?
« Reply #389 on: May 05, 2015, 09:52:31 AM »
The book is

http://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Prophecy-Fails-Leon-Festinger-ebook/dp/B00CBDCF84/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1430815160&sr=8-2&keywords=festinger

When Prophecy Fails [Kindle Edition]   
Leon Festinger (Author), Henry W. Riecken     (Author), Stanley Schachter   


Academic Papers

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/3709905?uid=3738032&uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21106279120861

Another

   What Really Happens When Prophecy Fails: The Case of Lubavitch.
Dein, Simon (2001)
 Sociology of Religion 62:3: 383-401.
 Based on participant observation in the Stamford Hill Lubavitch community (U.K.). The failure of a messianic prophecy was followed by more proselytizing at the same pace. Members rationally explained the disconfirmation & spiritualized its meaning.
 Associated Search Terms: Participant observation; Disconfirmation; Jewish, Lubavitcher, Great Britain; Cognitive dissonance

   When Prophecy Passes Unnoticed: New Perspectives on Failed Prophecy.
Bader, Christopher D. (1999)
 Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 38:1: 119-131.
 Associated Search Terms: Participant observation; UFO cult; Cognitive dissonance; Disconfirmation

Fifteen Years of Failed Prophecy. Coping with Cognitive Dissonance in a Baha'i Sect.
Balch, Robert W., John Dohn Domitrovich, Barbara Lynn Mahnke, and Vanessa Morrison (1997)
 In Thomas Robbins and Susan J. Palmer (eds.), Millennium, Messiahs, and Mayhem. Contemporary Apocalyptic Movements. New York: Routledge, pp. 73-90.
 Based on 1980-96 participant observation, interviews, & documentary research on an offshoot from Baha'i.
 Associated Search Terms: United States, Montana, Missoula; Millennial; Participant observation; Cognitive dissonance; Baha´is Under the Provisions of the Covenant; Millenarian, U.S.A.

Prophetic Failure: A Re-Testing of the Festinger, Riecken and Schachter Study of Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Cult.
Mahnke, Barbara Lynn (1987)
 Unpublished Master's thesis, University of Montana.
 Associated Search Terms: Millennial; Cognitive dissonance; Millenarian, U.S.A.; Baha´is Under the Provisions of the Covenant

Many thanks.