Could Smithman be the key to Madeleine's disappearance?

[pathfinder73]

So, Smithman was in a state of abject panic, is that what you're telling us now?  That explains the idiotic behaviour then!

This was planned Alfie but it's not something you ever do.

[Brietta]

Yes and the problem is that after SY realised that first open-carrying sighting was irrelevant, instead of saying "hang on, that is a stupid method anyway, why assume the perp is so stupid, let's look at other methods and timescales", they instead just switched to another open-carrying sighting, equally unlikely to be relevant IMO.

It is my opinion that the sighting of a child being carried in the immediate vicinity of an apartment from which it was soon to be discovered a child was missing is highly relevant.  Particularly as it was reported to the investigating authorities at the earliest opportunity after the event.

The direction being taken by the carrier would appear to have been worthy of close investigation ~ perhaps the distraction of Robert Murat's undoubtedly odd behaviour became a sticking point for investigation beyond the confines of Casa Liliana.

The investigation as a whole seems to me to have been very insular and inward looking.  What was the problem about casting the net and broadening the search for Madeleine beyond the confines of the Murat and McCann residences?

[pegasus]

You would only need a bag to conceal away from the crime scene. You would not need it after that first move away unless you wanted to incriminate yourself if a bag was found.

But you have your perp leaving the bag behind at your first location where it may be found Pathfinder.
You may be interested in these past cases in Europe and N America where a perp has switched from a bag to a visible uncovered carrying:
1.
2.
3.

[pegasus]

It is my opinion that the sighting of a child being carried in the immediate vicinity of an apartment from which it was soon to be discovered a child was missing is highly relevant.  Particularly as it was reported to the investigating authorities at the earliest opportunity after the event.

The direction being taken by the carrier would appear to have been worthy of close investigation ~ perhaps the distraction of Robert Murat's undoubtedly odd behaviour became a sticking point for investigation beyond the confines of Casa Liliana.

The investigation as a whole seems to me to have been very insular and inward looking.  What was the problem about casting the net and broadening the search for Madeleine beyond the confines of the Murat and McCann residences?

IMO close investigation was made of the direction taken by child carrier seen by JT.
That IMO is why all the scrubland areas close to the apartment selected by the NPIA for cadaver dog search on 31 May 2007 were basically northeast of the apartment - and much closer areas to the west was ignored - all to fit the direction of the man in the JT sighting IMO

[Lyall]

Lyall - you seem quite normal.  Do you think it is rational behaviour to parade undisguised through town with the undisguised corpse of a missing child in your arms?  Can you envisage yourself being so desperate as to take a similar course of action?  Where was the desperation anyway?  There was no imminent danger of the death being discovered - they had all night to dispose of a body.

If that's what happened then probably the need to have alibis came into the equation. If they weren't involved it also possibly came into the equation.

[pathfinder73]

But you have your perp leaving the bag behind at your first location where it may be found Pathfinder.
You may be interested in these past cases in Europe and N America where a perp has switched from a bag to a visible uncovered carrying:
1.
2.
3.

No the bag didn't stay at the first location. The bag would never stay with the body.

[Brietta]

No the bag didn't stay at the first location. The bag would never stay with the body.

So not one but two incriminating pieces of evidence to be disposed of in separate vortexes swirling about in Praia da Luz never to be seen again.

Your suspect didn't half give himself some problems.

[Alfred R Jones]

This was planned Alfie but it's not something you ever do.

What does that mean? 

[pegasus]

Pathfinder at the location where your theory's transport-by-bag ends and later your open-carrying begins, do you not see, your theory leaves an empty bag at that location.

[Alfred R Jones]

Easy to say that now. Not so easy if the scenario actually happens.

If that's what happened, decisions taken in panic may have very quickly been regretted.

Even in a state of panic (no evidence of any panic in "Smithman" prior to 10pm in evidence btw) self-preservation and a desperate desire not to be found out would be the overriding factor at play, and yet the suggestion is that the complete reverse took place, a bare-faced march through town for some considerable distance carrying an undisguised corpse - not the actions of an otherwise rational man in a panic, but the actions of an idiot or someone who wanted to be caught.

[Alfred R Jones]

You tell us your theory is all based on facts - so kindly tell us when Smithman was seen carrying a bag that evening please?

[Alfred R Jones]

Hang on - two bags?

[pathfinder73]

You tell us your theory is all based on facts - so kindly tell us when Smithman was seen carrying a bag that evening please?

Madeleine was not seen leaving the crime scene. No person was seen leaving the crime scene. The only people we know at the crime scene that night were Gerry who last saw Madeleine, Matt who didn't see Madeleine and Kate who raised the alarm that she was gone.

[Lyall]

Even in a state of panic (no evidence of any panic in "Smithman" prior to 10pm in evidence btw) self-preservation and a desperate desire not to be found out would be the overriding factor at play, and yet the suggestion is that the complete reverse took place, a bare-faced march through town for some considerable distance carrying an undisguised corpse - not the actions of an otherwise rational man in a panic, but the actions of an idiot or someone who wanted to be caught.

Some idiot. If that's what happened, he - abductor or person or persons Madeleine knew - got away with it.

What else could someone without transport do?

[Lyall]

It's less easy to move quickly if you're carrying a suitcase.

It's also greatly more suspicious if you're seen moving briskly with one. You'd not be intercepted at the time but the day after it would be suspicious to witnesses.

So would a man carrying a blanket.

Both are not common sights late at night.

But a man carrying a child was a common sight.