Did Goncalo Amaral misrepresent Harrison's findings?

[Carana]

From Amarals book.  and apart from other misinformation contained in it  - IMO a clear attempt to convince his readers that calpol was used on the children as a sedative.

Quote
One of the police officers who went to the McCanns' home in England, reported that a medical monitoring chart for Madeleine was posted in the kitchen. This referred to her sleep problems and made clear that she was waking several times in the night. The paternal grandfather stated that Kate gave the little girl - and also the twins - Calpol, a medication designed to facilitate falling asleep. That seems to be a common practice in Great Britain; they even talk about a "Calpol generation." In recent years, the possible presence of an antihistamine with sedative effects in Calpol has aroused great controversy. Recently, the same laboratory put Calpol Night on the market, whose ingredients clearly list that it contains an antihistamine.

The mother admits having taken some to Portugal. She insists though that there is no calming effect, its being composed solely of paracetamol, and that she did not give any of it to her daughter during the holiday. At the time of her disappearance, Madeleine was sleeping in the same room as the twins. The latter, in spite of the noise, the mother's screaming and the comings and goings, did not wake up, as if they had been given sedatives. Would there not be a link between that difficulty in falling asleep and Madeleine's tragic end?

If he'd checked beyond a PT tabloid quoting a UK tabloid and found out what Calpol actually was... he'd have known that Calpol is simply paracetamol and Calpol Night wasn't even on the market at the time.


It'a a bit like those publications found in the villa that were supposdely "restricted" to government agencies. They weren't, they were freely available on line for the general public.

[Brietta]

If he'd checked beyond a PT tabloid quoting a UK tabloid and found out what Calpol actually was... he'd have known that Calpol is simply paracetamol and Calpol Night wasn't even on the market at the time.


It'a a bit like those publications found in the villa that were supposdely "restricted" to government agencies. They weren't, they were freely available on line for the general public.

I don't think it would have made very much difference whatever Harrison had said ... I think there was a very closed mindset in operation ...

**Snip
Interviewer
But when did you sum “two plus two”?

Mr Amaral
That is part of the investigation work and the logics of the investigator. He joins things throughout time. There was atypical behaviour from the witnesses right away, which then transforms into indicia.

Then one realises that people are lying. How can anyone who has the obligation to cooperate with the police, not do so?! All the person wants is to receive information and all that the person says is a lie?!

Then it was necessary to understand why they lied. Were they afraid of the police? Of its reaction? Of the exposure and abandonment of the children? But when we asked, they said no, and insisted that the little girl had been abducted. This immediately caused strangeness and suspicion.

http://madeleinemccann.org/blog/2014/04/20/goncalo-amaral-the-interviews-augsep-08/#sthash.KjIeNSSV.dpuf

Nothing about following evidence in a professional way;  I think it reeks of prejudice and opinion and a mind which was made up and obdurately closed to all but the preconceived notion of guilt.

Did Portugal not have an interviewer like Paxman, capable of challenge and in depth question?

If a child has vanished without trace ... why should a parent's conviction that she has been abducted cause argument with the investigators unless they are not looking for her or evidence as to what may have happened ... and why should it cause suspicion.

[Alice Purjorick]

That's certainly not how it reads to me.

I agree with FM on this point.

According to GA, Harrison's conclusions confirmed his team's worst fears, i.e., that she was definitely dead. All Harrison was doing was what should have happened back in mid-May 07: it was part of a ground-clearing exercise, as it can't be ruled out that she died and her body dumped somewhere nearby. That seems fairly standard to me.

 Even if we were expecting it, his conclusions confirm our worst fears. The most plausible scenario is the following: there is no doubt that Madeleine is dead, and her body is hidden somewhere in the area around Praia da Luz.

I wonder why he said "the most plausible scenario" and what he meant by it ?
Should we take it at face value meaning or look for some carefully crafted subliminal message?

[Carana]

I wonder why he said "the most plausible scenario" and what he meant by it ?
Should we take it at face value meaning or look for some carefully crafted subliminal message?

Ah.... if I'm not mistaken, there's a translation issue there. I'm sure I've pointed this out before. Will check.

ETA:

Após uma intensa semana de trabalho, Mark apresentou um relatório com as conclusões do seu estudo aos elementos da coordenação e as notícias, apesar de esperadas, não eram as melhores. Na verdade, aquele relatório plasmava uma das piores hipóteses para os investigadores: o provável cenário de Madeleine estar morta, e o seu cadáver escondido nas proximidades da Praia da Luz.

To be fair, the original isn't as categorical as the English (translated via French).

I understand the original to mean that Harrison's report gave substance to one of the worst scenarios for the investigators: the probable scenario that M was dead...

[Alice Purjorick]

Ah.... if I'm not mistaken, there's a translation issue there. I'm sure I've pointed this out before. Will check.

Why am I not surprised?

[Carana]

Why am I not surprised?

Read my ETA.

[Mr Gray]

Why am I not surprised?

you shouldn't be...experience shows there will be many translation issues

[Alice Purjorick]

Read my ETA.

Yeah done that but not being fluent in Portuguese I bunged the bit under discussion into Google Translate and :

In fact, that report plasmava one of the worst cases to investigators : the probable scenario Madeleine is dead , and his body hidden in the vicinity of Praia da Luz.
So we don't have a direct translation of "plasmava" and most plausible becomes probable which is pretty the same in intent if not grammatically.

So back to original question why do you think he said "the most plausible" or "probable" ?
Or as I might it "yeah but stands a chance". Now when I say that I mean just that. My other would be "yeah well it's an odds on racin' cert".
So cutting to the chase when Sr Amaral said "most plausible" or "probable" do you not think he meant just that? rather than anything more definitive?.

[ferryman]

Ah.... if I'm not mistaken, there's a translation issue there. I'm sure I've pointed this out before. Will check.

ETA:

Após uma intensa semana de trabalho, Mark apresentou um relatório com as conclusões do seu estudo aos elementos da coordenação e as notícias, apesar de esperadas, não eram as melhores. Na verdade, aquele relatório plasmava uma das piores hipóteses para os investigadores: o provável cenário de Madeleine estar morta, e o seu cadáver escondido nas proximidades da Praia da Luz.

To be fair, the original isn't as categorical as the English (translated via French).

I understand the original to mean that Harrison's report gave substance to one of the worst scenarios for the investigators: the probable scenario that M was dead...

Probable scenario distinct from (English translation): there is no doubt that Madeleine is dead.

How does the bit translated as saying that the perpetrator is most likely someone close to Madeleine; perhaps even her parents, stand up?

[ferryman]

I think we get a flavour of where all the Wikipedias crap came from ....

[G-Unit]

Yeah done that but not being fluent in Portuguese I bunged the bit under discussion into Google Translate and :

In fact, that report plasmava one of the worst cases to investigators : the probable scenario Madeleine is dead , and his body hidden in the vicinity of Praia da Luz.
So we don't have a direct translation of "plasmava" and most plausible becomes probable which is pretty the same in intent if not grammatically.

So back to original question why do you think he said "the most plausible" or "probable" ?
Or as I might it "yeah but stands a chance". Now when I say that I mean just that. My other would be "yeah well it's an odds on racin' cert".
So cutting to the chase when Sr Amaral said "most plausible" or "probable" do you not think he meant just that? rather than anything more definitive?.

Plasmava? Does it even exist in Portuguese? There is a Spanish word 'Plasmada' which translates as 'captured', which can be used to mean 'show'.

[Carana]

Yeah done that but not being fluent in Portuguese I bunged the bit under discussion into Google Translate and :

In fact, that report plasmava one of the worst cases to investigators : the probable scenario Madeleine is dead , and his body hidden in the vicinity of Praia da Luz.
So we don't have a direct translation of "plasmava" and most plausible becomes probable which is pretty the same in intent if not grammatically.

So back to original question why do you think he said "the most plausible" or "probable" ?
Or as I might it "yeah but stands a chance". Now when I say that I mean just that. My other would be "yeah well it's an odds on racin' cert".
So cutting to the chase when Sr Amaral said "most plausible" or "probable" do you not think he meant just that? rather than anything more definitive?.

Perhaps Montclair might help on the meaning of "plasmava" in Portuguese. My understanding is that it means "gave substance to", "gave shape to" from the idea of moulding an object from a lump of clay or wood, for example.

FM was relying on the English translation, which is inaccurate. The original doesn't say that Harrison's conclusion led Amaral's team to believe that there was no doubt that she was definitely dead.

I don't understand why, after all this time, this was never corrected in the translation.

As to the most probable / plausible scenario issue...

Harrison had apparently presented statistics of the various relationships to a child, when a child had died in suspicious circumstances and had expertise in the most likely dumping places of least effort in the surrounding area.

I don't have a problem with that, as people close to a child (by relationship or by proximity) are often responsible.

But it was a ground-clearing exercise. No trace of her was found.

[Carana]

Plasmava? Does it even exist in Portuguese? There is a Spanish word 'Plasmada' which translates as 'captured', which can be used to mean 'show'.

http://www.englishbraziliandictionary.com/en/dictionary-portuguese-english/plasmar

[ferryman]

Perhaps Montclair might help on the meaning of "plasmava" in Portuguese. My understanding is that it means "gave substance to", "gave shape to" from the idea of moulding an object from a lump of clay or wood, for example.

FM was relying on the English translation, which is inaccurate. The original doesn't say that Harrison's conclusion led Amaral's team to believe that there was no doubt that she was definitely dead.

I don't understand why, after all this time, this was never corrected in the translation.

As to the most probable / plausible scenario issue...

Harrison had apparently presented statistics of the various relationships to a child, when a child had died in suspicious circumstances and had expertise in the most likely dumping places of least effort in the surrounding area.

I don't have a problem with that, as people close to a child (by relationship or by proximity) are often responsible.

But it was a ground-clearing exercise. No trace of her was found.

That's helpful, Carana.  Thank you.

[Carana]

Probable scenario distinct from (English translation): there is no doubt that Madeleine is dead.

How does the bit translated as saying that the perpetrator is most likely someone close to Madeleine; perhaps even her parents, stand up?

It was a fairly standard possibility to explore. I have no problem with that, I doubt that the McCanns do, either. Ground-clearing is important, but should have been done right at the beginning.

I have never found what statistics Harrison presented. Whatever it was is quite possibly related to when a child was found to have died or had been murdered. There are lots of missing children out there, so I don't see how statistics can be established on who was responsible in the absence of any evidence.

In this case, no trace of Madeleine was found one way or another. Ergo, she could still be alive.

ETA: AND, whatever statistics say means nothing in terms of what happened to any specific child.