Richard Hall's film 'When Madeleine Died?' uploaded to YouTube 19th Feb

[Jean-Pierre]

oh dear ...talk about a drum roll ...

i put a link up a few pages back ...for bite size clips ..but it was the four hour one ...the one below is the one showing the bite size ones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwv_UhqoI60

I'm sure people can make there own minds up on what they believe and what they don't believe ...what we should know at the beginning of this case[a very inportant time] ....because of what was fresh and said as it was ...there was a pattern showing ....discrepancies were being found ...were they should not be

GA picked up on this and so did many others....but unfortunately got rid of one by one



British diplomat warned Foreign Office of concerns over McCanns
Last updated at 10:18 03 December 2007

The Foreign Office was alerted to fears over Gerry and Kate McCann by a British diplomat in Portugal just days after their daughter Madeleine went missing.
The diplomat was sent to the holiday resort of Praia da Luz in the days following the four-year-old's disappearance and soon became concerned over "inconsistencies" in the testimonies by her parents and their friends.
After visiting the McCanns, the unnamed diplomat sent a report to the Foreign Office in London, admitting his worries about "confused declarations" of the McCanns' movements on the night of May 3.
Scroll down for more...


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-499340/British-diplomat-warned-Foreign-Office-concerns-McCanns.html#ixzz452D5uqRP


nothing ever is ....or ever has been straight forward in this case.....the only thing shown for sure ...is there is no evidence whatsoever ...of an abduction...............even 17 million pounds cant buy that

you either buy the mccs version of events............ or you don't

This anonymous diplomat whose report was apparently leaked to a newspaper. 

The newspaper was La Derniere Heure.   

The journalists were Duarte Levy and Paolo Reis.

Do those names ring any bells?

 

[xtina]

This anonymous diplomat whose report was apparently leaked to a newspaper. 

The newspaper was La Derniere Heure.   

The journalists were Duarte Levy and Paolo Reis.

Do those names ring any bells?

 

as i said.............


nothing ever is ....or ever has been straight forward in this case.....the only thing shown for sure ...is there is no evidence whatsoever ...of an abduction...............even 17 million pounds cant buy that

you either buy the mccs version of events............ or you don't

[Jean-Pierre]

as i said.............


nothing ever is ....or ever has been straight forward in this case.....the only thing shown for sure ...is there is no evidence whatsoever ...of an abduction...............even 17 million pounds cant buy that

you either buy the mccs version of events............ or you don't

You are right that there is nothing straightforward.  But one name crops up again and again and again. 

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id71.html

[xtina]

You are right that there is nothing straightforward.  But one name crops up again and again and again. 

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id71.html

JP ............do you think there is much difference between him and ....C M

seems there is a lot wrong ....on both sides ..........but what ever either do

there is still nothing to back up ....that abduction

[Jean-Pierre]

JP ............do you think there is much difference between him and ....C M

seems there is a lot wrong ....on both sides ..........but what ever either do

there is still nothing to back up ....that abduction

Yes I do, but dont expect you to agree. 

There is nothing to back up the thesis that the McCanns were involved in Madeleine's disappearance either.     

So we are at a bit of an impasse. 

[Carana]

if you look 12 04.........into the film ...there is a indication where the weather was took from...and it is not faro

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUPm35D-X3o

could be taken on the moon you say .....there is info where it was took Lagos/Luz ....if you don't want to believe it fine ...have you anything ....to disprove it ...or to prove it not true

apart from the moon that is ....

Sorry, I can't find any independent confirmation of where that weather chart was supposed to have been located.

Here are the reasons why I'm questioning this.

1. Sagres versus Faro:

Sagres is on the (exposed) western tip of the Algarve and Faro is 2/3 to the east towards Spain. PdL is in a little cove around 10-12 km from Sagres, whereas it is around 40 km to the west of Faro.

If you look at satellite images, the Atlantic weather fronts cross broadly from west to east at this time of year at least, sometimes from a slightly more northerly direction, sometimes from a more southerly one.

2. Kate's description supposedly 'doesn't match' "last photo":

On the alleged point that Kate had said that the day was cool and wished she'd taken a cardigan for Madeleine - yes, you can sit in a sheltered spot in spring or autumn and feel warm, then walk in a shaded area and feel a cold breeze.

3. Back to that weather chart.

It has NO visible specified location or source. It could literally have come from anywhere. The snapshots are identical to those on Havern's forum, but AFAIK, there is still no source attributed to the chart itself.

OK, I'll set that aside for the moment.

4. Onto the "analysis" in that video:

Cloud cover versus temperature:

"On the Thursday there was about 50% cloud cover from dawn, rising to nearly 100% cloud cover by the early afternoon." @10:15-40 ish.

The vertical lines in that chart separate the days. The high cloud cover in that chart is towards the right-hand side of that 24-hour period, therefore it can't represent early afternoon - it's latish evening. That chart shows the maximum temperature as 19, and right above the high cloud cover. That might seem odd, but it would be consistent with cloud cover sealing in the day's progressive warmth.

Then...

"... The temperature chart shows us that the temperature on Thursday rose from a cool 13 degrees C (55 degrees Fahrenheit) in the morning, to just 17 degrees C (63 degrees Fahrenheit) around mid-day, when the photo was supposed to have been taken."

So... let's stop there for a minute. If the time of the cloud cover is meant to correspond vertically to the time of the temperature, the cloud cover was only 50% when the temperature was around 17°C "around mid-day".

I have already posted a link to a Sagres weather chart for that day showing that there were approximately 11.5 hours of sunshine that day. I'll add it here, when I find it again.


Wind direction:

Then, have a look at the wind direction on that chart. It started off as coming from the West and moves to WSW during the day, and very late evening /overnight drops to WNS, which is consistent with Faro.


Faro
2:00 PM 18.0 °C WSW 25.9 km/h / 7.2 m/s Scattered Clouds

https://www.wunderground.com/history/station/08533/2007/5/3/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1&MR=1


Sagres
1pm, temp was 17°C. Wind direction North, speed 14.4km/h.
AAXX 03121 08533 32/// /3504 10174 20115 30105 40135 52013 333 91008 91108 555 59954 60005

4pm, temp 18°C, Wind direction NNW, speed 25.2 km/h
AAXX 03151 08533 42/// /3307 10175 20118 30103 40133 57002 333 91111

https://www.wunderground.com/history/station/08533/2007/5/3/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1&MR=1

Wind speed:
Faro was indeed a Force 4 at 2pm, whereas in Sagres, it was a very mild breeze at 1pm, becoming stronger by 4pm.


Note:
Beaufort scale:
4 Moderate breeze 20–28 km/h. Small waves with breaking crests. Fairly frequent whitecaps. Dust and loose paper raised. Small branches begin to move.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale



Although there can be variations even a few kms away, the Sagres charts coincide far more closely to the weather in the "last photo" in PdL than to Faro.

Moving on...

 5. Photos depicting Algarve weather:

"One well-respected Madeleine McCann researcher, a retired former police superintendant, has collected dated photographs to show exactly how the weather changed on the Monday of that week..."


Fine, but the photos (aside from one which is apparently from "near Lagos" during the sunny previous weekend), don't state where the ones taken later in the week were taken. The one that supposedly illustrates 3 May appears to be inland... somewhere.

6: Local former RAF ex-pat diary:

Then, the narration moves on to an ... "... ex-RAF man, now an ex-pat living in Praia da Luz, kept daily weather records. His diary confirms the cloudier, windy, cooler conditions that prevailed on that Thursday, when the last photo was supposed to have been taken."  (up to @13:30 ish).

Hmm.


I can find no indication that this ex-pat was examining a PdL weather chart (as the source chart for Hall's video comes from Havern's, with no original source).

There is, however, an extract from his alleged diary (for which I can find no online source either that doesn't originate from... Havern's, yet again).


So, let's see.

The only trace that I can find is of a former UK police officer quoting the ex-pat RAF chap as saying, supposedly concerning the evening of 3 May (although as the source hasn't been provided, that's not clear either):

"I arrived at my apartment about 1145pm. It was a clear dry moonlit night and no sound of human or vehicular activity, and it was good to reflect that better weather had now set in."

Where was he during that day? Where was this apartment? In PdL or somewehere else? Did he seriously arrive back in PdL on 3 May at around 1145pm to "no sound of human or vehicular activity" just as the whole of PdL was out and about searching for a missing child ??

This also appears to have been attributed to this former RAF ex-pat:

However of much greater import - is the wind speed and cloud factor.
At 1400 on 3 May, wind speed is recorded as force 4 with a still air temperature of 17 C. Although the pool area is to some extent sheltered, with the westerly direction component the wind would be markedly chilly with a chill factor pulling the temp down to as low as 15C - definitely not suitable for scantily clad pool activity.


That description corresponds more to Faro, as opposed to Sagres.



From a different thread, the alleged former UK policeman answers, in response to a question about weather data from Faro:

"Yes, I know it is Faro airport, but that is only a few km up the road."

No, it's not, it's 40 km to the east.

[Carana]

Then... some chap on YouTube (Darren) asserts that the "last photo" wasn't photoshopped, but that the EXIF data had been tampered with. Based on what? That the weather didn't correspond to what he was told with respect to the location?

Did this chap ever check out the weather data for himself? Or did he simply accept what he was provided with as "research"?

[Carana]

Then... The fact that this chap only got back to his apartment (wherever that was) at 11.45 pm to no noise appears to have been edited out. Why?

[ShiningInLuz]

Sorry, I can't find any independent confirmation of where that weather chart was supposed to have been located.

Here are the reasons why I'm questioning this.

1. Sagres versus Faro:

Sagres is on the (exposed) western tip of the Algarve and Faro is 2/3 to the east towards Spain. PdL is in a little cove around 10-12 km from Sagres, whereas it is around 40 km to the west of Faro.

If you look at satellite images, the Atlantic weather fronts cross broadly from west to east at this time of year at least, sometimes from a slightly more northerly direction, sometimes from a more southerly one.

2. Kate's description supposedly 'doesn't match' "last photo":

On the alleged point that Kate had said that the day was cool and wished she'd taken a cardigan for Madeleine - yes, you can sit in a sheltered spot in spring or autumn and feel warm, then walk in a shaded area and feel a cold breeze.

3. Back to that weather chart.

It has NO visible specified location or source. It could literally have come from anywhere. The snapshots are identical to those on Havern's forum, but AFAIK, there is still no source attributed to the chart itself.

OK, I'll set that aside for the moment.

4. Onto the "analysis" in that video:

Cloud cover versus temperature:

"On the Thursday there was about 50% cloud cover from dawn, rising to nearly 100% cloud cover by the early afternoon." @10:15-40 ish.

The vertical lines in that chart separate the days. The high cloud cover in that chart is towards the right-hand side of that 24-hour period, therefore it can't represent early afternoon - it's latish evening. That chart shows the maximum temperature as 19, and right above the high cloud cover. That might seem odd, but it would be consistent with cloud cover sealing in the day's progressive warmth.

Then...

"... The temperature chart shows us that the temperature on Thursday rose from a cool 13 degrees C (55 degrees Fahrenheit) in the morning, to just 17 degrees C (63 degrees Fahrenheit) around mid-day, when the photo was supposed to have been taken."

So... let's stop there for a minute. If the time of the cloud cover is meant to correspond vertically to the time of the temperature, the cloud cover was only 50% when the temperature was around 17°C "around mid-day".

I have already posted a link to a Sagres weather chart for that day showing that there were approximately 11.5 hours of sunshine that day. I'll add it here, when I find it again.


Wind direction:

Then, have a look at the wind direction on that chart. It started off as coming from the West and moves to WSW during the day, and very late evening /overnight drops to WNS, which is consistent with Faro.


Faro
2:00 PM 18.0 °C WSW 25.9 km/h / 7.2 m/s Scattered Clouds

https://www.wunderground.com/history/station/08533/2007/5/3/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1&MR=1


Sagres
1pm, temp was 17°C. Wind direction North, speed 14.4km/h.
AAXX 03121 08533 32/// /3504 10174 20115 30105 40135 52013 333 91008 91108 555 59954 60005

4pm, temp 18°C, Wind direction NNW, speed 25.2 km/h
AAXX 03151 08533 42/// /3307 10175 20118 30103 40133 57002 333 91111

https://www.wunderground.com/history/station/08533/2007/5/3/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1&MR=1

Wind speed:
Faro was indeed a Force 4 at 2pm, whereas in Sagres, it was a very mild breeze at 1pm, becoming stronger by 4pm.


Note:
Beaufort scale:
4 Moderate breeze 20–28 km/h. Small waves with breaking crests. Fairly frequent whitecaps. Dust and loose paper raised. Small branches begin to move.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale



Although there can be variations even a few kms away, the Sagres charts coincide far more closely to the weather in the "last photo" in PdL than to Faro.

Moving on...

 5. Photos depicting Algarve weather:

"One well-respected Madeleine McCann researcher, a retired former police superintendant, has collected dated photographs to show exactly how the weather changed on the Monday of that week..."


Fine, but the photos (aside from one which is apparently from "near Lagos" during the sunny previous weekend), don't state where the ones taken later in the week were taken. The one that supposedly illustrates 3 May appears to be inland... somewhere.

6: Local former RAF ex-pat diary:

Then, the narration moves on to an ... "... ex-RAF man, now an ex-pat living in Praia da Luz, kept daily weather records. His diary confirms the cloudier, windy, cooler conditions that prevailed on that Thursday, when the last photo was supposed to have been taken."  (up to @13:30 ish).

Hmm.


I can find no indication that this ex-pat was examining a PdL weather chart (as the source chart for Hall's video comes from Havern's, with no original source).

There is, however, an extract from his alleged diary (for which I can find no online source either that doesn't originate from... Havern's, yet again).


So, let's see.

The only trace that I can find is of a former UK police officer quoting the ex-pat RAF chap as saying, supposedly concerning the evening of 3 May (although as the source hasn't been provided, that's not clear either):

"I arrived at my apartment about 1145pm. It was a clear dry moonlit night and no sound of human or vehicular activity, and it was good to reflect that better weather had now set in."

Where was he during that day? Where was this apartment? In PdL or somewehere else? Did he seriously arrive back in PdL on 3 May at around 1145pm to "no sound of human or vehicular activity" just as the whole of PdL was out and about searching for a missing child ??

This also appears to have been attributed to this former RAF ex-pat:

However of much greater import - is the wind speed and cloud factor.
At 1400 on 3 May, wind speed is recorded as force 4 with a still air temperature of 17 C. Although the pool area is to some extent sheltered, with the westerly direction component the wind would be markedly chilly with a chill factor pulling the temp down to as low as 15C - definitely not suitable for scantily clad pool activity.


That description corresponds more to Faro, as opposed to Sagres.



From a different thread, the alleged former UK policeman answers, in response to a question about weather data from Faro:

"Yes, I know it is Faro airport, but that is only a few km up the road."

No, it's not, it's 40 km to the east.

You appear to have built a head of steam here.  You might like to try the following when you go back to the Sagres weather chart.

If you get the data not just for the 3rd but for other days as well, I think it can be tested in some instances.

The prevailing wind direction should impact where the Luz weather was coming from, and that in turn impacts The Last Photo.

It's a bit of a long shot, but it might just match the rain that led to tennis being cancelled on Wed morning, with drier conditions in the afternoon.

Excepting statements, the best source I can think of for actual Luz weather is the video of the McCanns being taken to Portimão on the morning of the 4th.

Can I make a further request?  Have a crack at finding any source for cloud cover.  I have yet to achieve this.

The most obvious would be the Aerôdromo de Lagos, but I can't find any historical data for this.

[Carana]

You appear to have built a head of steam here.  You might like to try the following when you go back to the Sagres weather chart.

If you get the data not just for the 3rd but for other days as well, I think it can be tested in some instances.

The prevailing wind direction should impact where the Luz weather was coming from, and that in turn impacts The Last Photo.

It's a bit of a long shot, but it might just match the rain that led to tennis being cancelled on Wed morning, with drier conditions in the afternoon.

Excepting statements, the best source I can think of for actual Luz weather is the video of the McCanns being taken to Portimão on the morning of the 4th.

Can I make a further request?  Have a crack at finding any source for cloud cover.  I have yet to achieve this.

The most obvious would be the Aerôdromo de Lagos, but I can't find any historical data for this.

I did check for the Lagos airstrip, but I couldn't find anything dating back to that time. The most I'd found concerning Lagos was a tourist blog (promoting sunny Algarve), with basic data, but which only dated back to October 2007.

I've noticed that there are quite a few more weather data capture points online than there were back in 2007. Perhaps we tend to forget how much technology has moved on since then...

[Carana]

@ SIL  I had already posted sunshine for Sagres... = 11 - 11.5 hours. I'm trying to find the post in question.

That weather chart does not seem to correspond to Faro on that day. That Faro got bad weather on Thursday with the wind coming in from a westerly direction, with bad weather moving on from Sagres towards the east seems fairly logical to me.

A caveat, of course, is that local conditions even from nearby Sagres may not correspond. On the other hand, 40 km down the eastern coast appear even less likely to correspond.

[Carana]

Here's a weekly view of Sagres from that time:

https://www.wunderground.com/history/station/08533/2007/5/3/WeeklyHistory.html?&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

Windspeed did indeed hit 26km/h... but not at "lunchtime".

[Carana]

Sagres sunshine

[Carana]

And...

[Alice Purjorick]

In the UK weather stations are on a 40km grid and even with that weather interpretation even by the experts can be incorrect.
Amateurs trying to interpolate weather from two stations about 80km apart is a hiding to nothing.
We have all heard and some experienced the "p*****g with rain on one side of the street and sunny on the other".