Why don't people believe the Mccanns story of Abduction ?

[G-Unit]

This case is to a certain extent quite simple,,,,if Kate is telling the truth Maddie was probably abducted....so I would think that SY have interviewed Kate and Gerry and made their minds up...it really is that simple

It's the 'if' that's the problem of course. Some believe, some don't.

[G-Unit]

So you think that you have the right to decide?

Not to decide, no. I can express my doubts, however.

[Alfred R Jones]

Based on what I have read about the case... Same as everyone else
The point is that the major possibilities need to add up to near 1..
If sil only gets to 0.4 ... Then she has assigned the wrong values to the major possibilities

correct!

[stephen25000]

correct!

I suggest you and the other mccann supporters 'trying' to suggest values of probability show your working or cite statistics to support your numbers, rather than say the first value which springs to your head, or is a result of your bias.

[Mr Gray]

I suggest you and the other mccann supporters 'trying' to suggest values of probability show your working or cite statistics to support your numbers, rather than say the first value which springs to your head, or is a result of your bias.

I have explained my calculations and how I have arrived at them...if you cannot understand it that is your problem.....the starting point is that all the major possibilities need to add up to 100%...the best the sceptics can do is 40%...which highlights a major flaw in their model

[slartibartfast]

I have explained my calculations and how I have arrived at them...if you cannot understand it that is your problem.....the starting point is that all the major possibilities need to add up to 100%...the best the sceptics can do is 40%...which highlights a major flaw in their model

No all possibilities.

[Mr Gray]

No all possibilities.

just popping out for breakfast...will correct you later

[stephen25000]

As it stands in real terms, 'abduction' is no better or worse than any other scenario in terms of evidence, or the lack of it.

There is clearly no forensic evidence of abduction. Mitchell stated, no evidence of a break in, and there has been no trace of Madeleine since her disappearance.


The results of the forensic examinations undertaken from the samples taken were inconclusive.

mccann claims of an open window has not been verified before 10 pm.

The only verified fingerprints on the window were mrs mccann.

Paedophile rings have been checked out with no result.

Claims of a burglary don't add up either.

'nothing of value was taken from the apartment'.

[stephen25000]

No all possibilities.

Indeed Slarti.

Anyone making a reasonable prediction, other than supposition or bias,needs a statistical model on which to base a prediction.

[Brietta]

As it stands in real terms, 'abduction' is no better or worse than any other scenario in terms of evidence, or the lack of it.

There is clearly no forensic evidence of abduction. Mitchell stated, no evidence of a break in, and there has been no trace of Madeleine since her disappearance.


The results of the forensic examinations undertaken from the samples taken were inconclusive.

mccann claims of an open window has not been verified before 10 pm.

The only verified fingerprints on the window were mrs mccann.

Paedophile rings have been checked out with no result.

Claims of a burglary don't add up either.

'nothing of value was takedn from the apartment'.

Risible that you imply there is something untoward in the occupant of the apartment leaving fingerprints commensurate with leaning out of the window ... as she said she did.
We know that at least two people interfered with the shutter but their fingerprints do not feature.

[stephen25000]

Risible that you imply there is something untoward in the occupant of the apartment leaving fingerprints commensurate with leaning out of the window ... as she said she did.
We know that at least two people interfered with the shutter but their fingerprints do not feature.

I find it risible that you believe in abduction, with not one piece of verifiable evidence to back it up.

Tell me Brietta, what is expertise do you have in  Statistics exactly ?

[Mr Gray]

I find it risible that you believe in abduction, with not one piece of verifiable evidence to back it up.

Tell me Brietta, what is expertise do you have in  Statistics exactly ?

it is your opinion there is no evidence....Redwood said..

as experienced investigators...based on the evidence...we believe Madeleine McCann was removed from the apartment by a stranger....DCI Redwood...Scotland Yard

as you can see he was not only speaking for himself

[Mr Gray]

No all possibilities.

if we consider all possibilities then some will be so unlikely as to be insignificant.......therefore if you want to be pedantic then all the major possibilities need to add up to close to 100%....no significant difference

[Mr Gray]

As it stands in real terms, 'abduction' is no better or worse than any other scenario in terms of evidence, or the lack of it.

There is clearly no forensic evidence of abduction. Mitchell stated, no evidence of a break in, and there has been no trace of Madeleine since her disappearance.


The results of the forensic examinations undertaken from the samples taken were inconclusive.

mccann claims of an open window has not been verified before 10 pm.

The only verified fingerprints on the window were mrs mccann.

Paedophile rings have been checked out with no result.

Claims of a burglary don't add up either.

'nothing of value was taken from the apartment'.

There is plenty of evidence if you understand what evidence means.....based on this evidence we can rule out some scenarios which increases the probablity of the others

[stephen25000]

I see mccann supporters still rely on Redwood, despite the fact he achieved nothing at all.

Again, a question asked before.

What was Redwood's expertise in missing child cases ?

and there is no  sufficient evidence that has been found to charge anyone with abduction.

If there was, it would have happened. Claiming otherwise to say the least is rather foolish, if not ridiculous.

I also suggest, that some mccann supporters should actually read up on probability and statistical models. It would help.