Author Topic: The Sun claims Madeleine McCann was kidnapped during a botched burglary.  (Read 288190 times)

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Offline ShiningInLuz

You need to start with the alternatives...parental involvement....abduction from apartment... woke and wandered


those have to add up to 100 unless you can think of other alternatives
Sorry, I read Darryl Huffs 'How to lie with statistics'.  You appear to be adrift of early 1970s thoughts on simple maths.  I had to apply the maths for 4 years.  You?
What's up, old man?

Offline Mr Gray

Sorry, I read Darryl Huffs 'How to lie with statistics'.  You appear to be adrift of early 1970s thoughts on simple maths.  I had to apply the maths for 4 years.  You?

happy to discuss but your post doesn't make any sense...what does "I had to apply the maths for four years mean"
this is quite simple maths...the sum of all possibilities has to add up to 1 or 100%.

Daryll Huffs book was written in 1954 and was an introduction to statistics for the general reader. Huff was a journalist not a statitician....is reading his book supposed to make you something of an expert..it doesn't
« Last Edit: May 12, 2016, 07:22:46 PM by davel »

stephen25000

  • Guest
So Dave, what type of statistical model would be appropriate to this case ?



Offline Mr Gray

So Dave, what type of statistical model would be appropriate to this case ?
I've just explained...don't you understand.....the sum of all possibilities is 1 or 100%...do you disagree

Offline ShiningInLuz

happy to discuss but your post doesn't make any sense...what does "I had to apply the maths for four years mean"
this is quite simple maths...the sum of all possibilities has to add up to 1 or 100%.

Daryll Huffs book was written in 1954 and was an introduction to statistics for the general reader. Huff was a journalist not a statitician....is reading his book supposed to make you something of an expert..it doesn't
I note that again, you seem to avoid the simplest of simplest of simple questions.  I did applied maths for 4 years.  You should be aware where applied maths is required.  But it seems you don't.

Are you going to answer the question?  How long did you study maths?  I cannot make it easier.
What's up, old man?

stephen25000

  • Guest
I've just explained...don't you understand.....the sum of all possibilities is 1 or 100%...do you disagree

Oh Dave, that's amazing.

I never knew that.

Wow. 8)--))

Offline Mr Gray

I note that again, you seem to avoid the simplest of simplest of simple questions.  I did applied maths for 4 years.  You should be aware where applied maths is required.  But it seems you don't.

Are you going to answer the question?  How long did you study maths?  I cannot make it easier.

At A and S level ...2 yr course.....this has no relevance...it is a very simple proposition...the sum of all probabilities is 1 or 100%

Offline Mr Gray

Oh Dave, that's amazing.

I never knew that.

Wow. 8)--))

which means you reluctantly agree  @)(++(*

stephen25000

  • Guest
I note that again, you seem to avoid the simplest of simplest of simple questions.  I did applied maths for 4 years.  You should be aware where applied maths is required.  But it seems you don't.

Are you going to answer the question?  How long did you study maths?  I cannot make it easier.

Indeed Shining.

Dave has claimed that Maths  is his specialised subject, up to the former 'S'  level  standard.

stephen25000

  • Guest
which means you reluctantly agree  @)(++(*

No Dave, I wasn't asking for the sum of all probabilities.

I was asking what statistical model you used, when not so long ago you said abduction had a probability of 0.99, or 99% .

Offline Mr Gray

Indeed Shining.

Dave has claimed that Maths  is his specialised subject, up to the former 'S'  level  standard.

Maths is not my specialist subject...you have not paid attention...it is not what I studied at university or post grad level

Offline G-Unit

I may be mixing up Thomas Cook with Thompsons, and if that is the case, mea culpa.  Just compare and contrast the two major tour operators at the time, and make up your own mind about what level of information appears on the MW arrivals list that does not appear on the other.

The reason as to why the individual might have been involved at this level of activity is documented in the files.  Note I have stressed 'might', as I definitely cannot prove 'was'.

Said individual could determine where the T9 were to be accommodated, had access to the keys and is on file as saying the T9 would probably choose Tapas over Millennium, due to the distances involved.

Said individual had no control over 1) whether the T9 all had decent baby monitors 2) whether the T9 used the crèche or had a nanny sit in 3) whether the T9 took their children to the Tapas a la Stephen Carpenter 4) whether the T9 conducted checks every 5 minutes or not.

Point 4) is predictable and provides the major window of opportunity in both a botched burglary and a pre-planned abduction.  While the T9 stated the checks were time driven (i.e. look at watch, 30mins has gone by, must go and check) nothing supports this and various statements suggest otherwise.  The visits appear to be largely event driven.  I can find no evidence whatsoever of any of the checkers looking at their watches, during either starters or mains, deciding the time had come for a check, and getting up and leaving the meal half-eaten to conduct a check.

Everything supports that when starters began to be served, the checkers stayed at the table until they had eaten, then did any check between starters and mains.  Seeing starters come out would give a perpetrator a quite limited window of opportunity to act.  I can't remember off hand if Gerry's check was before or after starters, because it is not particularly significant.  At the time of Gerry's check, it was still too light to conduct a burglary/abduction/body disposal with any degree of safety.

That moves us to around 9.30, when it WAS dark enough to carry out the deed under the cover of darkness.  Two checkers go, one stays behind re a sick child (also an event a burglar/abductor could not possibly control) and Matthew pops into 5A to do his check, which does not involve actually checking Madeleine.

Matthew returns to the table.  We are now back into event-driven checking.  Mains start to be served.  As per usual, none of the checkers gets up with a meal half-eaten.  One checker eats her meal hurriedly, then goes to take over from her partner, but no-one leaves until his/her mains have been consumed.  This switch between one partner and another is out of pattern, but I don't see that as being important either.

A burglar or an abductor who had any inkling of the T9 routine should have been into 5A as soon as the mains started to be served.  It is the longest, most predictable window of opportunity for that night.  Neither burglary nor abduction requires more than one perpetrator.

That perpetrator does not have to be the person making the T9 arrangements.  I have no evidence to support it was, or was not.  It just has to be a perpetrator willing to take a risk.  With the knowledge I have detailed that risk gets minimised, but of course it might have been lightning-strike random instead.

I have already pointed, as clearly as I am going to, to the small group of people with access to the knowledge, with access to the keys, and wit. h ability to control.  I can only make it clearer by naming names, and I'm not prepared to do that, even if everything is covered in the files.

These are my deductions, based on the PJ Files. I have probably underestimated the amount of people with access to the areas named;

The people who could see the computer systems were; All OC office and reception staff, possibly some MW staff. At least twelve people.

The people who could access the apartment keys held at reception were; all OC reception staff, possibly some MW staff. At least eight people.


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Offline Mr Gray

What is the sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in a sample space?

The answer is 1.

For example, a coin has two possible outcomes: heads or tails.

Probability of heads is 1/2 and probability of tails is 1/2 for one toss. 1/2+1/2=1.

i can post a link to the site but it is so simple it isn't really needed

Offline Alice Purjorick

The event did not take place anywhere in the world, though.  It took place in Luz.  So why Luz? The options are that the event was totally random, therefore Luz was unlucky, and Madeleine was unlucky.  Or Luz was in some way special.  Whilst Madeleine was unlucky (random) or else fitted some criteria.

I have made it clear that there is insufficient evidence in the public domain to 'solve' the case.

That is blindingly obvious.  If it could be solved with information in the public domain, OG would hardly have been necessary, let alone racked £12 million.

I have also made it clear there is more in the files to support the line I have proposed, down to named individuals, but as I cannot prove this theorem, to name such individuals would be libel.

These are all simple concepts.  You appear to be unwilling to consult the files to get to the people who could make this happen.  That is your choice.

But to state no one has given you a start point is both a factual error and nonsense.

1. I asked that about three days ago when the idea of a planned job was being bandied about.
2. I can identify the who but the sticking point is going to be the why.
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline ShiningInLuz

1. I asked that about three days ago when the idea of a planned job was being bandied about.
2. I can identify the who but the sticking point is going to be the why.
I can't give the why, other than narrowing it to two obvious alternatives.

Paedophilia v replacement/surrogate child.

I do not have any evidence to be more precise.
What's up, old man?