The Sun claims Madeleine McCann was kidnapped during a botched burglary.

[Heriberto Janosch]

Theories should be simple.

... We can make a theory like "A gang had a plan to abduct a child to order, but were interrupted by a burglar who opened the window before, the child fly away, wandering off and had a mortal accident, finally her parents hid the corpse and faked an abduction" ... Very complex without need.

Wandering off is simple, but discarded by facts.
McCann did it is simple. but discarded by facts.
Burgalry went wrong is simple, and there is evidence in this direction.

[stephen25000]

Theories should be simple.

... We can make a theory like "A gang had a plan to abduct a child to order, but were interrupted by a burglar who opened the window before, the child fly away, wandering off and had a mortal accident, finally her parents hid the corpse and faked an abduction" ... Very complex without need.

Wandering off is simple, but discarded by facts.
McCann did it is simple. but discarded by facts.
Burgalry went wrong is simple, and there is evidence in this direction.

Can you tell me Heriberto what evidence exists for burglary, since none has been found to show anyone was in the apartment ?

More pertinently, why would a burglar or burglars be afraid of a three year old ?

Why would burglars remove a three year old ?

Also, how do you explain the untouched flat and no forensic evidence of abduction ?

As to the mccanns 'didit' , did what exactly ?

As to accidental death or walking out, what 'facts' dismiss those exactly ?

[Mr Gray]

- Too many psychological assumptions, trying to infer, from a very limited number of teen cases, the absolute general behaviour of toddlers. We are interested here in Madeleine reaction.

- The videos posted do not try to demonstrate nothing except that other reactions are possible besides hiding or flying away.

- Wandering off was discarded by me because there is a window opened from the outside, and the man who Jane Tanner saw.

- If Madeleine began to shout, a burglar may well put his hand on her mouth, carrying her out away for nobody to hear her shouting, or because he accidentally killed her or put her uncounscious, by asphyxia.

- The vast majority of burglars are uneducated people who have not a plan other than "go out and see what you can get", see Gottfredson and Hirshi for statistics. And they like taking risks or are not aware of risks. A burglary is a high risk, a burglar may lose his life for a mobile phone ...

- If you are a couple of meters from a person you do not use the phone to communicate with him (no communicatiosn between 21:52:30 and 22:15)

Sorry if I cannot participate next days, I am beginning a complex week today.

covering a childs mouth to stop screaming sounds very probable and if excessive could easily result in death

[stephen25000]

covering a child's mouth to stop screaming sounds very probable and if excessive could easily result in death

Yet absolutely no trace of a third person in the apartment, and no disturbance of the apartment.

[Angelo222]

I think the window was opened from the inside and Madeleine passed through by an intruder who used a key to enter via the wooden door, Pegasus.

He or she left the door in the position in which it was seen.

Really and she never said a word?

[Angelo222]

I've already posted evidence, from a witness who had heard that shutter being raised 7 times in the previous week, that raising it made a lot of noise.

Only if done quickly.  It can be raised slowly and silently.

[Angelo222]

covering a childs mouth to stop screaming sounds very probable and if excessive could easily result in death

As is a bang on the head.

Seriously Heri, burglars are cowardly creatures who will run off at the slightest disturbance as noted in the Mrs Fenn episode.  No burglar will decide on the spur of the moment to kidnap a child when they could be intercepted at any second.  Nicking a few items from tourists is one thing and isn't usually investigated but lifting a three-year-old-child will bring the big boys to town.  Come on let's get real!

[jassi]

Theories should be simple.

... We can make a theory like "A gang had a plan to abduct a child to order, but were interrupted by a burglar who opened the window before, the child fly away, wandering off and had a mortal accident, finally her parents hid the corpse and faked an abduction" ... Very complex without need.

Wandering off is simple, but discarded by facts.
McCann did it is simple. but discarded by facts.
Burgalry went wrong is simple, and there is evidence in this direction.

What evidence would that be?  Can you be more explicit?

[Brietta]

Really and she never said a word?

We cannot know exactly what went on in and around the apartment or what Madeleine's reaction to it may or may not have been ... only a person who was there at the time is in a position to know that.

She could have slept through it as did the twins or she could have been frozen by fear ... we just have no idea.

[Brietta]

Only if done quickly.  It can be raised slowly and silently.

If burglars were in the habit of entering premises via the window, I am sure they would have perfected a technique for doing so very quietly indeed.
I think in the video showing PM raising the shutter it only made an appreciable noise when he started forcing it in an attempt to make it stay up ... Heri's demonstration shows that is not the way to lock it in place ... access to the inside cord is required.

[Lace]

I began considering all theories in parallel. Soon I discarded "Wandering off" and "McCanns did it". So, "Abduction by stranger" remains. But "Planned abduction" or "Burglary that went wrong"? I consider the second the most plausible.

IMO Henri,   after making such plans as to phone each other when Madeleine was collected from the crèche etc.  surely they would know that Madeleine and the twins would be in the apartment?   as they would have been watching the family and would know their movements?

[jassi]

Hypothetically, of course.

[G-Unit]

- Too many psychological assumptions, trying to infer, from a very limited number of teen cases, the absolute general behaviour of toddlers. We are interested here in Madeleine reaction.

- The videos posted do not try to demonstrate nothing except that other reactions are possible besides hiding or flying away.

- Wandering off was discarded by me because there is a window opened from the outside, and the man who Jane Tanner saw.

- If Madeleine began to shout, a burglar may well put his hand on her mouth, carrying her out away for nobody to hear her shouting, or because he accidentally killed her or put her uncounscious, by asphyxia.

- The vast majority of burglars are uneducated people who have not a plan other than "go out and see what you can get", see Gottfredson and Hirshi for statistics. And they like taking risks or are not aware of risks. A burglary is a high risk, a burglar may lose his life for a mobile phone ...

- If you are a couple of meters from a person you do not use the phone to communicate with him (no communicatiosn between 21:52:30 and 22:15)

Sorry if I cannot participate next days, I am beginning a complex week today.

Just a few thoughts;

There is no evidence from uninterested people that the window was opened from outside the premises or even that it ever was open.

You have accepted that Jane Tanner saw someone but have rejected her evidence of when she saw the person. Just an assumption on your part.

Uneducated doesn't equal unintelligent if that's what you're suggesting about burglars. An education isn't required in order to formulate a plan. In respect of being caught, burglary is not a high risk crime, not all that many get caught.

[Alice Purjorick]

Hypothetically, of course.

Just when you think it can't get worse in the flights of fancy stakes, it does.

[Carana]

We don't know much about Smellyman for the moment. I wonder how he got into the victims' flats / houses.