The Sun claims Madeleine McCann was kidnapped during a botched burglary.

[ShiningInLuz]

Ah! so you think someone was planning the job for up to six weeks ahead which kind of presupposes it will not be a random snatch which you then seem to suggest later.
Do tell more of the perceived logistics in general terms that really would interest me. Preferably starting with how the victim was specified and identified.
The spoilt for choice bit don't really wash. Have you ever watched a hobby take a swallow from a flock?. By jingo is that hobby spoilt for choice but if it doesn't target it will go hungry.
So we have a random snatch six weeks in the planning (why?) or we have The Payne Party being targeted which is more sinister.

Specification.  Female, white, 3 years or under.

Not a swallow in a flock.

A controlled situation.  Read the leads I have posted, and you will see how it could be controlled, and by whom.

[G-Unit]

Specification.  Female, white, 3 years or under.

Not a swallow in a flock.

A controlled situation.  Read the leads I have posted, and you will see how it could be controlled, and by whom.

What if the children had been properly guarded; taken to the night creche or a baby-sitter paid?

[stephen25000]

Specification.  Female, white, 3 years or under.

Not a swallow in a flock.

A controlled situation.  Read the leads I have posted, and you will see how it could be controlled, and by whom.

Then why not take a younger female sibling ?

For the reasons I have outlined on several occasions.

[misty]

Then why not take a younger female sibling ?

For the reasons I have outlined on several occasions.

Perhaps the role the target was to play was not that of a 2 year old.

[stephen25000]

Perhaps the role the target was to play was not that of a 2 year old.

Or it never happened.......

[jassi]

What if the children had been properly guarded; taken to the night creche or a baby-sitter paid?

Everybody would be living happily ever after and nobody would ever have heard of the McCanns.

[Eleanor]

Perhaps there was already a passport to match.

[G-Unit]

Everybody would be living happily ever after and nobody would ever have heard of the McCanns.

I was actually wondering if SIL thinks it would have happened anyway, perhaps in the night.

[Alice Purjorick]

Why do you think it is not possible?    Please tell me why you think this may not have happened,   just saying it wouldn't isn't good enough.   I didn't say it was a random snatch,  they were looking for a child like Madeleine they found her and abducted her.

I did not say it was not possible.
I am pointing out that a planned targeted snatch requires a lot of planning and is not as easy as some would have us believe; more to the point not many would know how to go about it. That is why I keep rabbiting on about "even give me the first steps". I have been asking for this on this forum for over a year and have yet to hear a likely tale, belay that not even hear a tale but reasons not to give one. Mostly it is ducked or greeted with sneers. C'est la vie.
I don't usually do "there I wuz" stories but perhaps this helps explain my taking it with a pinch of salt: part of what I do involves sending groups of disparate sometimes socially dysfunctional people all over the world to perform specific tasks in specific places.

The array of people trotted out as being potentially in the frame for this job are sure dysfunctional but looking at the detail they are drawing too much attention to themselves and are too slapdash. So are they a blind while the real team gets in ? How do you link in smelly bin man or is he a diversion ? How did dead tractor man and pig farmer man fit into the picture? what about fag butt men and chuggers? to name but a few. Christ you could start a war with fewer people.
But the big question is, if this were a planned snatch by an outfit which had money (it had to have if the original analysis was correct) then why pick Luz as the site ?

[ShiningInLuz]

What if the children had been properly guarded; taken to the night creche or a baby-sitter paid?

Properly guarded - follow the evidence.  The answer is in the files.

Taken to the night crèche or baby-sitter.  This is a loaded die question.  With a loaded die I have an improved chance, but certainly not guaranteed.

So let's suppose due to crèche or baby-sitter, a snatch is not possible in the week of 28 Apr to 5 May.  On 5 May, I get another chance to roll my loaded die again.  Perhaps I will have better fortune this time.  And if not, there is 12 May ...

Bit like gardening.  You plant things, then try to control the conditions so your seed will grow.  Sometimes it is failure.  But you stack the odds in chance of success. 

[stephen25000]

I did not say it was not possible.
I am pointing out that a planned targeted snatch requires a lot of planning and is not as easy as some would have us believe; more to the point not many would know how to go about it. That is why I keep rabbiting on about "even give me the first steps". I have been asking for this on this forum for over a year and have yet to hear a likely tale, belay that not even hear a tale but reasons not to give one. Mostly it is ducked or greeted with sneers. C'est la vie.
I don't usually do "there I wuz" stories but perhaps this helps explain my taking it with a pinch of salt: part of what I do involves sending groups of disparate sometimes socially dysfunctional people all over the world to perform specific tasks in specific places.

The array of people trotted out as being potentially in the frame for this job are sure dysfunctional but looking at the detail they are drawing too much attention to themselves and are too slapdash. So are they a blind while the real team gets in ? How do you link in smelly bin man or is he a diversion ? How did dead tractor man and pig farmer man fit into the picture? what about fag butt men and chuggers? to name but a few. Christ you could start a war with fewer people.
But the big question is, if this were a planned snatch by an outfit which had money (it had to have if the original analysis was correct) then why pick Luz as the site ?

That puts things into perspective.

[pegasus]

The child would go to the parents' bedroom (snip)

Yes, initially at least. It's such an elementary deduction.
Problem is the top detectives at PJ and OG and people on every forum make the illogical assumption:
"whoever opened the shutter must have disappeared the child"
This assumption, made subconsciously by the investigator without even realising he or she is making it, is so powerful, that it completely overrides logical thought.

[ShiningInLuz]

Then why not take a younger female sibling ?

For the reasons I have outlined on several occasions.

Assuming an abduction happened, which I cannot come close to proving, then we are left with 2 motivations.

Paedophiles or replacement for a lost child.

In a report around about 2000, the Portuguese intelligence service summarised that there were 4 centres of paedophilia in Portugal, and 3 international paedophile rings in action.  The 4 centres were Lisbon, Oporto, Madeira and the Azores.  The 3 rings were not identified, but the word that got my attention was 'international'.

Replacement?  Look at the MW arrivals sheet and it is clear.  Madeleine was 3.  She was not days off being 4, she was 3 and appears to have been petite for her age.  It is true that someone subjecting her passport to scrutiny on her arrival could have twigged she was pushing 4, but it would have required a deal of scrutiny.

Alice has mentioned Schengen, which may be pertinent.

Take a child over the border to Spain, no passport required, no check, and the PJ are stymied.  Take a child to Madeira or the Azores, no passport, no check, then away by boat, and equally the PJ are beaten.  If it was pre-planned, it was easy to leave the PJ trailing.

[ShiningInLuz]

I was actually wondering if SIL thinks it would have happened anyway, perhaps in the night.

Basically, I think the security was such that the entire group of children were soft targets.  If what I have said re advance information and key access is correct, then perpetrators could afford to wait until subsequent visitors.

Then it wouldn't be the Madeleine McCann case.  It would be the (insert your choice of a female child's name here) case.

[ShiningInLuz]

I did not say it was not possible.
I am pointing out that a planned targeted snatch requires a lot of planning and is not as easy as some would have us believe; more to the point not many would know how to go about it. That is why I keep rabbiting on about "even give me the first steps". I have been asking for this on this forum for over a year and have yet to hear a likely tale, belay that not even hear a tale but reasons not to give one. Mostly it is ducked or greeted with sneers. C'est la vie.
I don't usually do "there I wuz" stories but perhaps this helps explain my taking it with a pinch of salt: part of what I do involves sending groups of disparate sometimes socially dysfunctional people all over the world to perform specific tasks in specific places.

The array of people trotted out as being potentially in the frame for this job are sure dysfunctional but looking at the detail they are drawing too much attention to themselves and are too slapdash. So are they a blind while the real team gets in ? How do you link in smelly bin man or is he a diversion ? How did dead tractor man and pig farmer man fit into the picture? what about fag butt men and chuggers? to name but a few. Christ you could start a war with fewer people.
But the big question is, if this were a planned snatch by an outfit which had money (it had to have if the original analysis was correct) then why pick Luz as the site ?

Look at the files.

Weak security.  Advance information.  Control.

If I make it any plainer, I am exposing myself to libel, but absolutely everything is in the files.