The Sun claims Madeleine McCann was kidnapped during a botched burglary.

[Brietta]

Assuming an abduction happened, which I cannot come close to proving, then we are left with 2 motivations.

Paedophiles or replacement for a lost child.

In a report around about 2000, the Portuguese intelligence service summarised that there were 4 centres of paedophilia in Portugal, and 3 international paedophile rings in action.  The 4 centres were Lisbon, Oporto, Madeira and the Azores.  The 3 rings were not identified, but the word that got my attention was 'international'.

Replacement?  Look at the MW arrivals sheet and it is clear.  Madeleine was 3.  She was not days off being 4, she was 3 and appears to have been petite for her age.  It is true that someone subjecting her passport to scrutiny on her arrival could have twigged she was pushing 4, but it would have required a deal of scrutiny.

Alice has mentioned Schengen, which may be pertinent.

Take a child over the border to Spain, no passport required, no check, and the PJ are stymied.  Take a child to Madeira or the Azores, no passport, no check, then away by boat, and equally the PJ are beaten.  If it was pre-planned, it was easy to leave the PJ trailing.

If it was pre-planned Madeleine was very probably well out of the reach of the PJ before the first officers stepped from their vehicle onto the cobbles of Luz on the night she vanished.

[G-Unit]

Specification.  Female, white, 3 years or under.

Not a swallow in a flock.

A controlled situation.  Read the leads I have posted, and you will see how it could be controlled, and by whom.

There were @ 11 females in much the same age range as Madeleine and at least 7 younger females. Why choose that particular 'swallow'?

[ShiningInLuz]

I have no reason whatsoever to support the idea that Madeleine was chosen, as opposed to being just the child that drew the short straw.

It could have been one of the other six, for all I know.

It could have been a child of a later visitor, for all I know.

I have no reason to believe that Madeleine was the special one rather than the unlucky one.

[Alice Purjorick]

Assuming an abduction happened, which I cannot come close to proving, then we are left with 2 motivations.

Paedophiles or replacement for a lost child.

In a report around about 2000, the Portuguese intelligence service summarised that there were 4 centres of paedophilia in Portugal, and 3 international paedophile rings in action.  The 4 centres were Lisbon, Oporto, Madeira and the Azores.  The 3 rings were not identified, but the word that got my attention was 'international'.

Replacement?  Look at the MW arrivals sheet and it is clear.  Madeleine was 3.  She was not days off being 4, she was 3 and appears to have been petite for her age.  It is true that someone subjecting her passport to scrutiny on her arrival could have twigged she was pushing 4, but it would have required a deal of scrutiny.

Alice has mentioned Schengen, which may be pertinent.

Take a child over the border to Spain, no passport required, no check, and the PJ are stymied.  Take a child to Madeira or the Azores, no passport, no check, then away by boat, and equally the PJ are beaten.  If it was pre-planned, it was easy to leave the PJ trailing.

Paedophile ring(s) operating in Portugal?  how many similar cases before MM and after?. Two separate figures required.
I can think of places in Europe where it would be a bloody sight easier to lift a child that would not be missed quite so readily if at all.
If it was a replacement child lots of money and know how on the part of the client would have been required. He ain't gonna find his squad leader in Checkatrade or Yellow Pages. So we come back to my earlier question why Luz as the site of choice if it were a "spec job" and also why seemingly the choice of grunt labour ?
Are you suggesting that all the signposts are in the files and the PJ were too dim to spot it?  and Metodo3? and Oakley International? and AIG? oh scrub that AIG think she is still in the lawless hinterland and SY?.
It smells to me like having and end result in mind and working backwards to make it fit.

[Eleanor]

The potential purchaser of the child could have been in the area at the time.

[ShiningInLuz]

Paedophile ring(s) operating in Portugal?  how many similar cases before MM and after?. Two separate figures required.
I can think of places in Europe where it would be a bloody sight easier to lift a child that would not be missed quite so readily if at all.
If it was a replacement child lots of money and know how on the part of the client would have been required. He ain't gonna find his squad leader in Checkatrade or Yellow Pages. So we come back to my earlier question why Luz as the site of choice if it were a "spec job" and also why seemingly the choice of grunt labour ?
Are you suggesting that all the signposts are in the files and the PJ were too dim to spot it?  and Metodo3? and Oakley International? and AIG? oh scrub that AIG think she is still in the lawless hinterland and SY?.
It smells to me like having and end result in mind and working backwards to make it fit.

Before MBM?  I can think of a number.  After MBM?  Not relevant.  Doing a similar operation afterwards defines stupid.

Kindly name your places in Europe where it is easier to lift a child without the incident being noticed.  I would be glad of your insight on this.

I can tell from your comments you have not looked at the files wrt this.  Kindly do so.

The PJ were not 'too dim'.  They were working with the best methods and tools they had, ala Portugal 2007 style.

As for Metodo 3, you are joking?  Ditto Oakley International?  Ditto AIG?  Do you honestly think they could tell their [forum rules prohibit me from putting this in plain an simple English]?

By the way, it smells to me of finding what the Portuguese intelligence service reported around 2000 and wondering if it is relevant.

[pegasus]

Burglar starts opening shutter from outside, child runs to beds in other bedroom ... what next?

[faithlilly]

Before MBM?  I can think of a number.  After MBM?  Not relevant.  Doing a similar operation afterwards defines stupid.

Kindly name your places in Europe where it is easier to lift a child without the incident being noticed.  I would be glad of your insight on this.

I can tell from your comments you have not looked at the files wrt this.  Kindly do so.

The PJ were not 'too dim'.  They were working with the best methods and tools they had, ala Portugal 2007 style.

As for Metodo 3, you are joking?  Ditto Oakley International?  Ditto AIG?  Do you honestly think they could tell their [forum rules prohibit me from putting this in plain an simple English]?

By the way, it smells to me of finding what the Portuguese intelligence service reported around 2000 and wondering if it is relevant.

So what is your number before Madeleine and your evidence for that number ? Further why do you think the time after Madeleine is not relevant ?

[mercury]

Has Occam not paid a visit yet?

 &%+((£

[Alice Purjorick]

Before MBM?  I can think of a number. Do tell After MBM?  Not relevant.  Doing a similar operation afterwards defines stupid. Why? according to stats only 1% of child disappearances in Europe are abduction by stranger

Kindly name your places in Europe where it is easier to lift a child without the incident being noticed. I said less readily noticed not without being noticed. Try Trieste; Bratislava;Istanbul for kickers,  but in general terms any large border town a town with large railway terminus or significant dock.You will find kids sleeping rough in all of them ( not to mention drug smugglers people smugglers etc etc) I would be glad of your insight on this.

I can tell from your comments you have not looked at the files wrt this.  Kindly do so. I have looked at some of the PJ /McCann files but life's too short to read all of it. I prefer to work from first principles "How would I go about it" see my earlier "there I wuz story"

The PJ were not 'too dim'.  They were working with the best methods and tools they had, ala Portugal 2007 style.

As for Metodo 3, you are joking?  Ditto Oakley International?  Ditto AIG?  Do you honestly think they could tell their [forum rules prohibit me from putting this in plain an simple English]?

By the way, it smells to me of finding what the Portuguese intelligence service reported around 2000 and wondering if it is relevant.
Don't keep it all a secret. I am always fascinated by how professionals of varying degrees of competence never work it out but the "gifted" amateur always does . Take a bow Miss Marple.

[mercury]

I have no reason whatsoever to support the idea that Madeleine was chosen, as opposed to being just the child that drew the short straw.

It could have been one of the other six, for all I know.

It could have been a child of a later visitor, for all I know.

I have no reason to believe that Madeleine was the special one rather than the unlucky one.

How did she come to draw the short straw? Out of dozens of girls over the months long holiday period? In a preplanned abduction

[pegasus]

... What next? Hide? Go out to balcony?

[misty]

... What next? Hide? Go out to balcony?

Maybe she never made it to the parents' bedroom because the burglar's accomplice had gained access through the patio door & was stood in her bedroom doorway.

[pegasus]

Maybe she never made it to the parents' bedroom because the burglar's accomplice had gained access through the patio door & was stood in her bedroom doorway.

But if one burglar had already entered via balcony door, what would be the point of second burglar opening the window from outside Misty?

[misty]

But if one burglar had already entered via balcony door, what would be the point of second burglar opening the window from outside Misty?

We don't know that the window was opened from outside, Pegasus. We know that the shutter could be raised but the status of the window lock is supposition.