Author Topic: The Sun claims Madeleine McCann was kidnapped during a botched burglary.  (Read 270207 times)

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Offline G-Unit

Let's see if we can clarify a bit.  Are you working under the assumption that reception staff at the Tapas and Millennium had computer access?  Under such circumstances there was no need for them to get paper reports.  ditto the cleaning supervisors.  I'm seeing paper reports printed the evening before to control these activities.  Therefore I am assuming the OC did not have a distributed network.  I do not know if you are counting those in your 12, but I'm excluding them.

The only ones with a legitimate need to update the booking system are those making bookings, those producing control reports, and the IT bod.  I can't remember if there was a bookkeeper, who might or might not have access to reservations.

As to why allocation is important.  First, from memory, that was done the evening before.  No one who had access could know the location in advance of that, with exception of those who would do the allocation. 

Second, why is location important.  I have yet to see any evidence of those guests located 100m plus from one of the two restaurants doing a listening check.  The Carpenters in Fiji Palms took their children to Tapas, as did other guests.  Others put their children in the crèche or hired nannies.

If the T9 had been 100m plus away as the crow flies, or out of eyesight, would they have used a listening scheme?  Or would they have thought it too risky and picked any of the alternatives, including take-aways (Berry+Balu), crèche, nanny, take kids to restaurant.

Blocks 4 and 5 look visually safe, in the sense that the apartments being above the Tapas can be seen.  I am not arguing how much the McCanns could see, merely that there is a false sense of security in being able to see the rear of one's apartment.

I don't think you get a decent view of block 6 from the Tapas restaurant, but I cannot be certain.  And I know very little about the layout of the Millennium.

I don't know the working range of the Payne's baby monitor, but I suspect it to would fail at much over 100m, due to obstacles in the way.

Plonk the T9 wherever in the OC is farthest from those 2 restaurants and the T9 would have been forced to scrap the listening idea.  The myth of the visit to Chaplins fails for that reason (and others).

It's not those who make the bookings or produce reports that have control.  They have knowledge, but not control.  It is those who determine the allocation of customers to locations that are important.  They have control.

Let me repeat.  I do not have proof of this happening that would stand up in a civil or criminal court.  I am merely pointing out a major weakness in the OC system, that a major change in 2007 was the MW booking info, and that Madeleine's disappearance happened relatively shortly after this change.

Not only is there no proof, there's no clear connections between the different parts.

New MW booking system. May be significant, may not. Information on other existing systems is sparse, so we can't judge.

Access to bookings. Potentially all staff who worked in the main OC reception building; reception, bookings, and admin. people.

Allocations; I would be very surprised if they were made only the evening before arrivals. It's like a theatre allocating all the seats only on the day of the performance. I await a cite for the idea they were left so late.

Control. You seem to think allocation to Block 5 is significant, but it's only significant if the person making allocations could see some advantage in placing the group in this block rather than in another location. What do you suggest the 'controller's' purpose was?



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Offline sadie


Shining bears no responsibility for anything I may post, my opinions are my own. 

The 'botched' burglary may be a theory only because other lines of inquiry were not pursued at the time ... or were pursued asking the wrong questions.

One of those lines was the bookings trail leading from Britain to the Ocean Club.

I agree with you Brietta

I think it more likely that known burglars were commissioned to carry out an abduction. 

I think the whole abduction was planned to the finest detail before hand ... and to a certain extent probably practiced before hand.   

And my thinking, at the moment, is that it is quite likely that Madeleine was chosen for a number of reasons:

Attractive
Vivacious
Personable
Intelligent
From a Good and loving family

But the most important criteria was that she was of the right bloodline

stephen25000

  • Guest
I agree with you Brietta

I think it more likely that known burglars were commissioned to carry out an abduction. 

I think the whole abduction was planned to the finest detail before hand ... and to a certain extent probably practiced before hand.   

And my thinking, at the moment, is that it is quite likely that Madeleine was chosen for a number of reasons:

Attractive
Vivacious
Personable
Intelligent
From a Good and loving family

But the most important criteria was that she was of the right bloodline

And
A
Complete
Load
Of
Cobblers.

IMO of course.


As a reminder, yet again Sadie.

Abduction in this case is not a fact.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2016, 04:30:39 PM by Slartibartfast »

Offline Eleanor


Most of us have theories and opinions.  Some of us choose to keep them to ourselves.  This is what this Forum is all about.

stephen25000

  • Guest
Most of us have theories and opinions.  Some of us choose to keep them to ourselves.  This is what this Forum is all about.

Sadie gave her opinion.

I gave mine.

She, as you will have noted , gives her opinion of other theories.

That is how it works.

Offline Eleanor

Sadie gave her opinion.

I gave mine.

She, as you will have noted , gives her opinion of other theories.

That is how it works.

Right On, Stephen.  I'll give you a Like for this comment.

Offline Lace

Sadie gave her opinion.

I gave mine.

She, as you will have noted , gives her opinion of other theories.

That is how it works.

Good at calling others theories cobblers,  yet has no theory of your own,  oh,  hang on,  it's Amaral's theory isn't it?   didn't need to think hard did you.

stephen25000

  • Guest
Good at calling others theories cobblers,  yet has no theory of your own,  oh,  hang on,  it's Amaral's theory isn't it?   didn't need to think hard did you.

You have a penchant for getting things wrong.

There are two theories I hold with. 8)-)))

Offline Alice Purjorick

May I ask you, politely, if you read and absorb what I say?Reply: yes

If I could dot every i and cross every t, would I be putting this on the Internet?Reply: I do not know

When I say the total probability of all alternatives adds up to 40% rather than 100%, and the main deduction to be made from this is that my understanding is miles off being complete, is that unclear to you? Reply: the sum of the probabilities of all outcomes must be unity. If it isn't all outcomes have not been identified or analysed.

You are asking for speculation about 2 massive areas - paedophilia and child kidnap.  I do not have to spout about these, and I choose not to spout about these.Reply: anyone postulating paedophilia or child kidnap is speculating anyway as the ruling document for the police says the nature of the crime if any is unknown. I am however asking for an explanation how this scenario works from beginning to end. Otherwise we are in the situation of you merely saying "because I say so".

The reason I am saying you do not seem to have read the files using the information I have supplied is simple.  It gets you to names and potential motive.  You have neither.  Ergo you haven't gone back and looked.Reply: or from the documents we have both read we do not share the same conclusions. .
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline Mr Gray

You have a penchant for getting things wrong.

There are two theories I hold with. 8)-)))

accident and woke and wandered

Offline ShiningInLuz

Not only is there no proof, there's no clear connections between the different parts.

New MW booking system. May be significant, may not. Information on other existing systems is sparse, so we can't judge.

Access to bookings. Potentially all staff who worked in the main OC reception building; reception, bookings, and admin. people.

Allocations; I would be very surprised if they were made only the evening before arrivals. It's like a theatre allocating all the seats only on the day of the performance. I await a cite for the idea they were left so late.

Control. You seem to think allocation to Block 5 is significant, but it's only significant if the person making allocations could see some advantage in placing the group in this block rather than in another location. What do you suggest the 'controller's' purpose was?
You seem to be working quite hard not to drink the water placed in front of you.

I have stated repeatedly that I cannot get access to all of the information to 'prove' this, therefore you are going to have to make do with the pieces that ARE available.

New MW booking system that makes clear, for the very first time, that 8 children under 4, 7 of them girls, were in the same party.  A TC booking system that did not do the same.  If you wish to disregard this change, you need to show it was not significant e.g. the TC info would have showed Madeleine's age, which it wouldn't.

Access to bookings.  Who would care?  Let me see, the person making the booking.  And the fixer, whether that is the booker or otherwise.  There is no reason other staff would give a jot.

Allocations.  I am working on what is in the statements and what I see on the print-outs.  It is quite, quite different to a theatre allocating tickets.  In that scenario, the theatre customer tells the price he wants to pay, the theatre checks seats available, and issues a ticket.  End of story.  Ditto other scenarios like air flights.

The OC working is quite different.  The OC has a stock of properties, each with facilities that vary e.g. there are T1s, T2s, T3s and I vaguely remember a T8 (or did I get that wrong - that sounds too big).  It is not single seats being sold to individuals.  It is grouped capability, where the apartments have different properties.  It would not have been possible to squeeze the Payne group into a T1 if the OC had run out of T2s.

From memory, Textusa has used the files to come up with an occupancy rate of roughly 50%.  The actual figure is not important - there was a lot of spare capacity.

A booker therefore had a simple task, particularly with the T9.   Check there were plenty of T2s available (did any of the group have a T1) and job done.

The allocator had a somewhat harder task - to try to make the allocations fit the requests.  This seems to have been 3 step. 

First, allocate properties to owner's making owner requests, which is another likely reason allocation was done late in the day.  Imagine telling an owner he could not have his property because it had been allocated to a 3rd party some time before.

Second, try to cater for parties wishing to be co-located.  Not a big issue at 50% occupancy.

Third, try to take into account the many other requests, such as ground floor, sea view and the such like.  From memory, Balu requested ground floor and got it, Berry requested ground floor and did not get it.  Payne requested ground floor for all and the other 3 families got it while he did not.

Why is allocation to block 5 important?  From where did Madeleine disappear?  Would she have disappeared if the McCanns were allocated an apartment in Rua do Pouço, which is too far away when dining to leave the children?

IF things happened that way, and I stress again it is a very big IF, it is simply a case of incorporating a knowledge of the OC into a well-constructed plan.

After all, whatever happened . the McCanns, a botched burglary, an abduction - whoever did it has been successful in getting away with it for the last 9 years.
What's up, old man?

Offline sadie

You seem to be working quite hard not to drink the water placed in front of you.

I have stated repeatedly that I cannot get access to all of the information to 'prove' this, therefore you are going to have to make do with the pieces that ARE available.

New MW booking system that makes clear, for the very first time, that 8 children under 4, 7 of them girls, were in the same party.  A TC booking system that did not do the same.  If you wish to disregard this change, you need to show it was not significant e.g. the TC info would have showed Madeleine's age, which it wouldn't.

Access to bookings.  Who would care?  Let me see, the person making the booking.  And the fixer, whether that is the booker or otherwise.  There is no reason other staff would give a jot.

Allocations.  I am working on what is in the statements and what I see on the print-outs.  It is quite, quite different to a theatre allocating tickets.  In that scenario, the theatre customer tells the price he wants to pay, the theatre checks seats available, and issues a ticket.  End of story.  Ditto other scenarios like air flights.

The OC working is quite different.  The OC has a stock of properties, each with facilities that vary e.g. there are T1s, T2s, T3s and I vaguely remember a T8 (or did I get that wrong - that sounds too big).  It is not single seats being sold to individuals.  It is grouped capability, where the apartments have different properties.  It would not have been possible to squeeze the Payne group into a T1 if the OC had run out of T2s.

From memory, Textusa has used the files to come up with an occupancy rate of roughly 50%.  The actual figure is not important - there was a lot of spare capacity.

A booker therefore had a simple task, particularly with the T9.   Check there were plenty of T2s available (did any of the group have a T1) and job done.

The allocator had a somewhat harder task - to try to make the allocations fit the requests.  This seems to have been 3 step. 

First, allocate properties to owner's making owner requests, which is another likely reason allocation was done late in the day.  Imagine telling an owner he could not have his property because it had been allocated to a 3rd party some time before.

Second, try to cater for parties wishing to be co-located.  Not a big issue at 50% occupancy.

Third, try to take into account the many other requests, such as ground floor, sea view and the such like.  From memory, Balu requested ground floor and got it, Berry requested ground floor and did not get it.  Payne requested ground floor for all and the other 3 families got it while he did not.

Why is allocation to block 5 important?  From where did Madeleine disappear?  Would she have disappeared if the McCanns were allocated an apartment in Rua do Pouço, which is too far away when dining to leave the children?

IF things happened that way, and I stress again it is a very big IF, it is simply a case of incorporating a knowledge of the OC into a well-constructed plan.

After all, whatever happened . the McCanns, a botched burglary, an abduction - whoever did it has been successful in getting away with it for the last 9 years.

Shining, I must congratulate you on a series of very logical posts.  Well done.

Offline ShiningInLuz


May I ask you, politely, if you read and absorb what I say? Reply: yes

If I could dot every i and cross every t, would I be putting this on the Internet? Reply: I do not know

When I say the total probability of all alternatives adds up to 40% rather than 100%, and the main deduction to be made from this is that my understanding is miles off being complete, is that unclear to you? Reply: the sum of the probabilities of all outcomes must be unity. If it isn't all outcomes have not been identified or analysed.

You are asking for speculation about 2 massive areas - paedophilia and child kidnap.  I do not have to spout about these, and I choose not to spout about these. Reply: anyone postulating paedophilia or child kidnap is speculating anyway as the ruling document for the police says the nature of the crime if any is unknown. I am however asking for an explanation how this scenario works from beginning to end. Otherwise we are in the situation of you merely saying "because I say so".

The reason I am saying you do not seem to have read the files using the information I have supplied is simple.  It gets you to names and potential motive.  You have neither.  Ergo you haven't gone back and looked. Reply: or from the documents we have both read we do not share the same conclusions. .

I don't know if this will turn out correctly, but to explain, the original points made are mine, while the replies are Alice's.  Here goes.

I write.  You read and absorb.  Accepted!  Thank you!

You don't know if I had a bullet-proof theorem, I would post in on the Internet?  That surprises me.  I thought I had enough of a track record by now, whatever.  You don't know.  Fine.

I'm at 40%.  "Reply: the sum of the probabilities of all outcomes must be unity. If it isn't all outcomes have not been identified or analysed."  I have been saying this for 2 months now.  I said it again in the post you quoted.

Last bit about going back and reading the files again.  I have simple and clear reasons why I think you have not  Your response was "Reply: or from the documents we have both read we do not share the same conclusions."

I note, nothing about rereading the files, and an either/or about whether we share the same conclusions.  Hard to agre or disagree with something as vague as that.
What's up, old man?

Offline Mr Gray

I don't know if this will turn out correctly, but to explain, the original points made are mine, while the replies are Alice's.  Here goes.

I write.  You read and absorb.  Accepted!  Thank you!

You don't know if I had a bullet-proof theorem, I would post in on the Internet?  That surprises me.  I thought I had enough of a track record by now, whatever.  You don't know.  Fine.

I'm at 40%.  "Reply: the sum of the probabilities of all outcomes must be unity. If it isn't all outcomes have not been identified or analysed."  I have been saying this for 2 months now.  I said it again in the post you quoted.

Last bit about going back and reading the files again.  I have simple and clear reasons why I think you have not  Your response was "Reply: or from the documents we have both read we do not share the same conclusions."

I note, nothing about rereading the files, and an either/or about whether we share the same conclusions.  Hard to agre or disagree with something as vague as that.

If you haven't identified all outcomes you cannot calculate probability
Your maths is totally skewed
I have a bag of numbered balls ... What is the probability of drawing number 23
Without knowing the total number of balls you cannot calculate the probability


Offline G-Unit

You seem to be working quite hard not to drink the water placed in front of you.

I have stated repeatedly that I cannot get access to all of the information to 'prove' this, therefore you are going to have to make do with the pieces that ARE available.

New MW booking system that makes clear, for the very first time, that 8 children under 4, 7 of them girls, were in the same party.  A TC booking system that did not do the same.  If you wish to disregard this change, you need to show it was not significant e.g. the TC info would have showed Madeleine's age, which it wouldn't.

Access to bookings.  Who would care?  Let me see, the person making the booking.  And the fixer, whether that is the booker or otherwise.  There is no reason other staff would give a jot.

Allocations.  I am working on what is in the statements and what I see on the print-outs.  It is quite, quite different to a theatre allocating tickets.  In that scenario, the theatre customer tells the price he wants to pay, the theatre checks seats available, and issues a ticket.  End of story.  Ditto other scenarios like air flights.

The OC working is quite different.  The OC has a stock of properties, each with facilities that vary e.g. there are T1s, T2s, T3s and I vaguely remember a T8 (or did I get that wrong - that sounds too big).  It is not single seats being sold to individuals.  It is grouped capability, where the apartments have different properties.  It would not have been possible to squeeze the Payne group into a T1 if the OC had run out of T2s.

From memory, Textusa has used the files to come up with an occupancy rate of roughly 50%.  The actual figure is not important - there was a lot of spare capacity.

A booker therefore had a simple task, particularly with the T9.   Check there were plenty of T2s available (did any of the group have a T1) and job done.

The allocator had a somewhat harder task - to try to make the allocations fit the requests.  This seems to have been 3 step. 

First, allocate properties to owner's making owner requests, which is another likely reason allocation was done late in the day.  Imagine telling an owner he could not have his property because it had been allocated to a 3rd party some time before.

Second, try to cater for parties wishing to be co-located.  Not a big issue at 50% occupancy.

Third, try to take into account the many other requests, such as ground floor, sea view and the such like.  From memory, Balu requested ground floor and got it, Berry requested ground floor and did not get it.  Payne requested ground floor for all and the other 3 families got it while he did not.

Why is allocation to block 5 important?  From where did Madeleine disappear?  Would she have disappeared if the McCanns were allocated an apartment in Rua do Pouço, which is too far away when dining to leave the children?

IF things happened that way, and I stress again it is a very big IF, it is simply a case of incorporating a knowledge of the OC into a well-constructed plan.

After all, whatever happened . the McCanns, a botched burglary, an abduction - whoever did it has been successful in getting away with it for the last 9 years.

On the contrary, you seem to be working very hard to defend a theory which is not supported by what we know. No-one has to 'make do' with lack of evidence, it's the one suggesting a theory who needs to find something to underpin it, not those being asked to believe it.

Your first post on the subject mentioned weak security (keys) Advance information (booking system) and control (allocating accommodation). You suggested one person in particular had knowledge of and access to all three.

Many more than one person could have had the knowledge and access, so the 'one person' assertion falls down.

It isn't possible to know if the MW system made a difference because we haven't seen booking information from other operators, so advance information could apply to all bookings.

Without a motive for allocating clients to a certain block, the 'control' serves what purpose?

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