I have to admit I can see links between the events, links which point to an organised crime gang. The false alarm many miles away from Praia da Luz could very well have been created in order to take the GNR night crew away as far as possible from the scene of a robbery. Thinking outside the box for a moment, it is possible that what started out as a simple robbery ended up as a child abduction. Could it be that Madeleine awoke to find the window open and recognised the intruder?
I don't think they would have gone to all the bother of distracting the cops for a tourist robbery that might at best have secured a camera, passport or loose change.
A high value item about which a furore was going to be raised immediately it was discovered missing would have necessitated a quick, clean, unobstructed getaway ... would certainly have been worth the precaution of making sure the GNR were otherwise engaged while it was going on and while the culprits were getting clear.
I think Madeleine was the target.