Author Topic: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.  (Read 77667 times)

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Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #105 on: January 11, 2017, 04:40:08 PM »
To put it another way: Kane was explaining the probability of error in eliminating what may or may not be an irrelevant peak of background noise in one of the 13 loci (therefore only relying on the results of 12).

As I haven't listened to the rest yet, I don't know if Kane went on to present the results if only 11 or 10 had been examined.

Lowe only had 10 loci (markers) to examine, but even so, there were was still evidence of at least 3 contributors.
If at any single locus the results showed 3 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 2 people.
If at any single locus the results showed 5 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 3 people.

So I'd expect in the results on the Renault to show at least one locus the results showed 5 alleles.   Multiple occurrences of any single loci having 3 alleles does not mean there was more than two people in the mix.

Put it this way I'm still confused by the methods of assessing the results.
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Offline Carana

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #106 on: January 11, 2017, 09:33:45 PM »
If at any single locus the results showed 3 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 2 people.
If at any single locus the results showed 5 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 3 people.

So I'd expect in the results on the Renault to show at least one locus the results showed 5 alleles.   Multiple occurrences of any single loci having 3 alleles does not mean there was more than two people in the mix.

Put it this way I'm still confused by the methods of assessing the results.

Lowe doesn't say that there were loci with 3 alleles (which could indeed be the result of just 2 contributors), but that there were at least 3 contributors.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #107 on: January 11, 2017, 10:00:16 PM »
Lowe doesn't say that there were loci with 3 alleles (which could indeed be the result of just 2 contributors), but that there were at least 3 contributors.
That must be the case though for they are looking at 10 loci and the maximum for a single person is two, and Madeleine had one where she was homozygous, so if the evidence test showed that homozygous site to have 4 alleles there that would imply at least 3 in the mix.  Maybe Gerry and Kate were homozygous on this allele too which then could bump it up to 5 in the mix.  Unless we get the additional profiles from the parents we are just guessing, but the analysts seem to allow for guesses when they are analysing DNA profiles where they talk in terms of unknown imaginary people contributing to the profile.

There were 37 alleles found so on average that is 3.7 per locus.  But you can  only have whole numbers of alleles, 3 or 4 but not 3.7, so the most even spread would be 7 loci with 4 alleles and 3 with 3 alleles, totalling 37 alleles in all.

Answering your point if there were 4 alleles at the locus where Madeleine was homozygous.  That is the one from her, and 3 others which must have come from at least 2 other people.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 10:40:23 PM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline Carana

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #108 on: January 11, 2017, 10:44:43 PM »
That must be the case though for they are looking at 10 loci and the maximum for a single person is two, and Madeleine had one where she was homozygous, so if the evidence test showed that homozygous site to have 4 alleles there that would imply at least 3 in the mix.  Maybe Gerry and Kate were homozygous on this allele too which then could bump it up to 5 in the mix.  Unless we get the additional profiles from the parents we are just guessing, but the analysts seem to allow for guesses when they are analysing DNA profiles where they talk in terms of unknown imaginary people contributing to the profile.

There were 37 alleles found so on average that is 3.7 per locus.  But you can  only have whole numbers of alleles, 3 or 4 but not 3.7, so the most even spread would be 7 loci with 4 alleles and 3 with 3 alleles, totalling 37 alleles in all.

The forensic results of the boot weren't released in the accessible files for some unknown reason. What is known is that Corte Real agreed with Lowe.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #109 on: January 11, 2017, 10:50:05 PM »
The forensic results of the boot weren't released in the accessible files for some unknown reason. What is known is that Corte Real agreed with Lowe.
Who is Corte Real?  I'm not disagreeing with Lowe, other than what I learnt from Dan Krane where he said if the reference sample has alleles that are not in the evidence sample the suspect is excluded, i.e it is not Madeleine but Lowe does not categorically rule out the sample as coming from Madeleine.
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Offline Carana

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #110 on: January 11, 2017, 11:01:17 PM »
Who is Corte Real?  I'm not disagreeing with Lowe, other than what I learnt from Dan Krane where he said if the reference sample has alleles that are not in the evidence sample the suspect is excluded, i.e it is not Madeleine but Lowe does not categorically rule out the sample as coming from Madeleine.

Corte Real was the head of the INML (the PT forensic institute).

I haven't watched the rest of Kane's video yet. Will try to do that tomorrow at some point.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #111 on: January 11, 2017, 11:04:03 PM »
Corte Real was the head of the INML (the PT forensic institute).

I haven't watched the rest of Kane's video yet. Will try to do that tomorrow at some point.
There were 8 of them all about 1 hour long.  I found an article mentioning Corte-Real
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-mccanns-in-the-clear-as-dna-evidence-proves-inconclusive-6688356.html

A Google search brought me back to this forum and a former post by you.  http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1147.msg32352#msg32352

In the same thread John brings up a matter of law that I don't know about "Could it be that the Portuguese wanted to apply their Law as relates to the number of DNA markers which constitute a match and this was unacceptable to the UK whose baseline is 20 markers for a match under the Law?"


Another post by you says "As Debunker pointed out, the initial PT police team didn't seem to understand the soup issue for some reason. Even if there had been all 19 present, the situation would still be the same. "  which is what I'm claiming is incorrect.  If there were the 19 found she could be included but since the were only 15 out of the 19 found she is excluded.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 11:19:21 PM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline Carana

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #112 on: January 11, 2017, 11:16:25 PM »
There were 8 of them all about 1 hour long.  I found an article mentioning Corte-Real
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-mccanns-in-the-clear-as-dna-evidence-proves-inconclusive-6688356.html

A Google search brought me back to this forum and a former post by you.  http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1147.msg32352#msg32352

Corte Real was interviewed in Amaral's "documentary", but his fans have a tendency to gloss over what he said.

Offline Carana

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #113 on: January 11, 2017, 11:17:37 PM »
There were 8 of them all about 1 hour long.  I found an article mentioning Corte-Real
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-mccanns-in-the-clear-as-dna-evidence-proves-inconclusive-6688356.html

A Google search brought me back to this forum and a former post by you.  http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1147.msg32352#msg32352

LOL Thanks for finding that. I knew I'd posted it before.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #114 on: January 11, 2017, 11:24:54 PM »
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/PORTUGUESE-FORENSIC.htm

Corte Real was interviewed in Amaral's "documentary", but his fans have a tendency to gloss over what he said.
Did they?


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Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #115 on: January 11, 2017, 11:38:23 PM »
This article seems to bridge both threads hot at the moment
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012
"New police blow for McCanns
Kate and Gerry McCann's hopes of being cleared over daughter Madeleine's disappearance were rocked last night.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012

BY VICTORIA WARD
00:00, 1 DEC 2007 UPDATED 00:22, 3 FEB 2012

....

"There are more and more indicators that they were involved in the disappearance of the child. But it's been been difficult to prove."

A four-man Portuguese police team arrived back in Faro yesterday after a two-day summit with British forensic experts.

They met police chief Paulo Rebelo. Significantly, they were joined by Britain's ambassador to Portugal Alex Ellis and consulate official Angela Morado.

Officers believed DNA tests by the Forensics Science Services in Birmingham would be damning enough to charge the McCanns.

Vice president of the Portuguese national pathology lab, Francisco Corte Real, could not hide his disappointment as he said: "There's nothing to say for now."

Police yesterday returned a diary and computers seized from Murat's girlfriend Michaela Walczuch, 34, admitting they found nothing linking her to the tot's disappearance."
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 12:04:23 AM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #116 on: January 11, 2017, 11:46:00 PM »
This is interesting in that the Portuguese seem real suspicious that someone hobbled the tests at the FSS.
http://netk.net.au/Madeleine/Madeleine48.asp
"On 29 November 2007 Nick Fagge of the Daily Express reported on Madeleine McCann
He said that police flew to Britain yesterday to view evidence which could condemn or clear Madeleine McCann’s parents of involvement in her disappearance. The visit – dubbed a DNA summit – is crucial to Portuguese detectives who have accused the doctors of being directly involved in the four-year-old’s death. The decision by the team, which includes the second in command of Portugal’s forensic science service, caught the McCanns and their lawyers completely by surprise. The team want to be briefed on the precise methods used by the British scientists who analysed the forensic evidence which led to the McCanns being named as arguidos, or official suspects, in September, a police source revealed yesterday. He said: “The investigators are hugely anxious. It is hoped that the tests are conclusive this time. “The meeting with UK forensic experts will enable investigators to see what’s already been analysed and find out what information is already available from the results the English scientists obtained.”
The meeting, due to start first thing this morning, was expected to analyse in fine detail the implications of the results of DNA evidence from the couple’s holiday apartment and hire car. The strength of the evidence, which has been the subject of widespread speculation, will help detectives to decide if the McCanns have a case to answer. The Portuguese prosecutor will rely on this heavily as he composes a letter to Leicestershire police, in which he may ask them to re-interview the McCanns and their friends, and explain the exact nature of the further questions he wants them to face.
The four-man team is made up of Inspector Ricardo Praia, a detective with the investigative Policia Judiciaria, two police forensic science experts and the vice-president of Portugal’s National Pathology Institute, Francisco Corte Real. They will meet senior officials from the Forensic Science Service laboratory in Birmingham at a secret location. The team want to familiarise themselves with the pioneering methods used so that they can explain them to the investigating magistrate in the Algarve who will decide whether to charge or clear the McCanns.
The source added: “They are going to England to decode the results of the tests so we are not caught by surprise.” He added: “The team that is going to the UK is going to examine everything microscopically to make sure the tests have not been manipulated by someone linked to the suspects. “We want to be sure all the information that reaches us has not previously been interfered with.” The meeting was also due to be attended by Detective Supt Stuart Prior, who is in charge of the Leicestershire police operation, working under the direction of the Portuguese force.
Last night Clarence Mitchell, the McCanns’ official spokesman, said the couple from Rothley, Leics, had nothing to fear from the visit. He said: “We have been informed by Leicestershire police that a meeting between forensic scientists from Portugal and the Forensic Science Service laboratory will be taking place. “We understand there is no intention for the McCanns to be interviewed or indeed anybody else. That such a meeting is taking place is not particularly surprising and we do not see this as a significant development.”
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 12:24:15 AM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #117 on: January 11, 2017, 11:49:27 PM »
This article seems to bridge both threads hot at the moment
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012
"New police blow for McCanns
Kate and Gerry McCann's hopes of being cleared over daughter Madeleine's disappearance were rocked last night.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012

BY VICTORIA WARD

....

"There are more and more indicators that they were involved in the disappearance of the child. But it's been been difficult to prove."

A four-man Portuguese police team arrived back in Faro yesterday after a two-day summit with British forensic experts.

They met police chief Paulo Rebelo. Significantly, they were joined by Britain's ambassador to Portugal Alex Ellis and consulate official Angela Morado.

Officers believed DNA tests by the Forensics Science Services in Birmingham would be damning enough to charge the McCanns.

Vice president of the Portuguese national pathology lab, Francisco Corte Real, could not hide his disappointment as he said: "There's nothing to say for now."

Police yesterday returned a diary and computers seized from Murat's girlfriend Michaela Walczuch, 34, admitting they found nothing linking her to the tot's disappearance."
Start sticking dates for these articles on the forum or watch them disappear.  Old news is precisely that, and I have better things to do.
What's up, old man?

Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #118 on: January 11, 2017, 11:53:07 PM »
Oops an oversight sorry - dates how silly of me.

In the article itself it says "On 29 November 2007 Nick Fagge of the Daily Express reported on Madeleine McCann...."
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 12:13:56 AM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
« Reply #119 on: January 11, 2017, 11:57:44 PM »
Corte Real was interviewed in Amaral's "documentary", but his fans have a tendency to gloss over what he said.
I found that documentary and the transcript Dated 2009?  Posted Thu Aug 20, 2009. http://themaddiecasefiles.com/topic7.html
"Dr Francisco Corte-Real
Vice President, National Forensics Institute

33.09 – When those 15 alleles are included in a mix, where beyond those 15 we can have another 30 or 40 alleles, that means that it includes biological material from several persons. And there it can be much more difficult, much more inconclusive, because we may have a mixture from several persons, including hypothetically, if that happens, we may have several persons from the same family, and that may even give us the idea, in a way, that a certain missing person may be included, and that is not conclusive."

So he uses the words "Not conclusive" but not "exclude".
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