Author Topic: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?  (Read 41380 times)

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Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2017, 12:53:48 PM »
Fair enough. If you think that it's possible that more than one person is involved, in what way?
In the way of abducting a child, I don't know what other conclusions you expect me to be drawing at this stage.

Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2017, 02:16:00 PM »
The door to the apartment was unlocked - known fact.
Therefore the apartment was not secure - known fact.
An abductor could gain access to the apartment without breaking and entering.
That's how it was possible.

Easy peasy lemon squeezy, and that's just using the known facts.

Sorry you have just failed.
You have failed to provide evidence of the existence of an abductor.
Also you have failed to consider the child vacating the apartment under her own steam.
The idea is to try to find out what happened not find anecdotal stuff that satisfies a preconceived idea.
You are falling into classic traps relating to "finding out what happened".
Too much linear thinking and "the five whys".


"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". .Sarah Bailey

Offline Lace

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2017, 02:18:58 PM »
In a report about the sex attacker who assaulted five British children in the Algarve this part is of interest to me -

In most cases there were no signs of forced entry to the property, nothing was taken, and the intruder appeared in the early hours of the morning between 2am and 5am.

No forced entry,  nothing taken.    So how did this man gain access to the properties?

Online G-Unit

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2017, 02:19:19 PM »
The door to the apartment was unlocked - known fact.
Therefore the apartment was not secure - known fact.
An abductor could gain access to the apartment without breaking and entering.
That's how it was possible.

Easy peasy lemon squeezy, and that's just using the known facts.

Sorry, but the correct term is 'the door to the apartment was said to be unlocked'. But not all the time by everyone;

In this way, at about 21.05 the witness came to the Club, entered the room using his respective key, the door being locked,.........At about 22.00 it was his wife Kate who went to check on the children. She entered the apartment by the door using the key
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/GERRY-MCCANN.htm
Accept nothing
Believe no-one
Confirm everything

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2017, 02:22:43 PM »
Sorry, but the correct term is 'the door to the apartment was said to be unlocked'. But not all the time by everyone;

In this way, at about 21.05 the witness came to the Club, entered the room using his respective key, the door being locked,.........At about 22.00 it was his wife Kate who went to check on the children. She entered the apartment by the door using the key
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/GERRY-MCCANN.htm
Was the patio door unlockable with a key?  If the patio door was locked with a key how do you think madeleine dragged the chair to the railings to throw herself off?

Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2017, 02:28:03 PM »
A child was taken from her bath whilst her mother was in another room. Thats how easy an abduction can be. No need for complicated a.nalyses....it is possible and very simple.

Totally irrelevant to this application.
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". .Sarah Bailey

Online G-Unit

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #21 on: January 19, 2017, 02:31:15 PM »
How about a sceptic explain why this (Slarti's Simple Solutio) is neither plausible nor logical?

"Person A is around the OC, sees the McCanns leaving the apartment by the patio, knows it is unlocked. Waits until they gone into the tapas. Drive up to back entrance of 5a, nips into apartment, picks up Madeleine (if she wakes just tell her taking to Daddy), out to the car, drive off. Job done".

The McCanns leave their apartment closely followed/at the same time as Jane Tanner, she is followed by Matthew and Rachael, then Russell. Matthew comes back up and the Paynes are coming down. Not only are all these people passing by, it was still daylight and others may have been around; Jes Wilkins was, we know. Rather implausible that none of them bumped into him. Pretty illogical for anyone to try at that point. Who was Gery gazing proudly at at 9.05 pm also?
Accept nothing
Believe no-one
Confirm everything

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #22 on: January 19, 2017, 02:32:57 PM »
The McCanns leave their apartment closely followed/at the same time as Jane Tanner, she is followed by Matthew and Rachael, then Russell. Matthew comes back up and the Paynes are coming down. Not only are all these people passing by, it was still daylight and others may have been around; Jes Wilkins was, we know. Rather implausible that none of them bumped into him. Pretty illogical for anyone to try at that point. Who was Gery gazing proudly at at 9.05 pm also?
Who said it happened before 9.05pm?

Online G-Unit

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2017, 02:37:04 PM »
Was the patio door unlockable with a key?  If the patio door was locked with a key how do you think madeleine dragged the chair to the railings to throw herself off?

It isn't possible to prove that the patio door was unlocked, therefore it can't be said to be a known fact.
Accept nothing
Believe no-one
Confirm everything

Online G-Unit

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2017, 02:55:57 PM »
Who said it happened before 9.05pm?

Your post made it sound like a continuous string of events;

"Person A is around the OC, sees the McCanns leaving the apartment by the patio, knows it is unlocked. Waits until they gone into the tapas. Drive up to back entrance of 5a, nips into apartment, picks up Madeleine (if she wakes just tell her taking to Daddy), out to the car, drive off. Job done".

How long after Person A wait after the McCanns entered the Tapas before driving up to the back entrance of 5A then? You never mentioned Gerry returning. Or Jane. When did it actually happen, Alfie?
Accept nothing
Believe no-one
Confirm everything

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #25 on: January 19, 2017, 03:04:46 PM »
It isn't possible to prove that the patio door was unlocked, therefore it can't be said to be a known fact.
Matt Oldfield rogatory

4078 'And you said when you went in you went in through the patio door''
Reply 'Yeah'
 
4078 'Or the poolside door''
Reply 'Yeah'.
 
4078 'How did you know to go through there''
Reply 'Well Kate said that that one was open'.
 
4078 'And when did she say that''
Reply 'When I offered to go and, erm, go and look'.
4078 'Okay'.
 
Reply 'Because I said do you want me to check the kids and she said yeah the patio door is open'.
 
4078 'Okay'.
Reply 'I mean, it was closed, it wasn't sort of open'.
 
4078 'And I am assuming it is a slide open door, is that correct''
Reply 'Yeah'.
 
00.33.23 4078 'So you slid the door open''
Reply 'Yeah'.
 
4078 'And you have walked through the apartment and you said there was a light on''
Reply 'Yeah'.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2017, 09:43:46 PM by John »

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #26 on: January 19, 2017, 03:06:23 PM »
Your post made it sound like a continuous string of events;

"Person A is around the OC, sees the McCanns leaving the apartment by the patio, knows it is unlocked. Waits until they gone into the tapas. Drive up to back entrance of 5a, nips into apartment, picks up Madeleine (if she wakes just tell her taking to Daddy), out to the car, drive off. Job done".

How long after Person A wait after the McCanns entered the Tapas before driving up to the back entrance of 5A then? You never mentioned Gerry returning. Or Jane. When did it actually happen, Alfie?
It's Slarti's post originally but I reckon the abduction happened at some point after 9.30pm and before 10pm

Offline jassi

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #27 on: January 19, 2017, 03:13:14 PM »
It's all pretty tight time wise, though. You've got Matt & Russell in transit after 9.30 then Matt coming back & going into 5A, Then shortly after that Jane leaps up and goes to her apartment and then Russell leaves to return to Tapas.
So time opportunity shrinks somewhat from 30 minutes for abductorman to carry out his dastardly task.

Then, of course, there might be other non-Tapas holiday makers passing by.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 03:23:57 PM by jassi »
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -   11 years and still no solution.

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #28 on: January 19, 2017, 03:21:10 PM »
It's Slarti's post originally but I reckon the abduction happened at some point after 9.30pm and before 10pm

You seemed to start the original thread and put forward the scenario???
It is a lack of contrition that makes a person who has done wrong fixate on being proven blameless.

Online Davel

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #29 on: January 19, 2017, 03:23:26 PM »
of course it was extremely tight timewise

What the sceptics dont understand is taht although it was hihgly unlikely taht Maddie WOULD be abducted it is highly likely that she WAS abducted
UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED ALL POSTS ARE MY OPINION