Author Topic: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?  (Read 51812 times)

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Offline Faithlilly

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #960 on: February 14, 2017, 11:34:42 AM »
Had he intended entering at night when everyone was sleeping the knowledge you propose might have been enough. Entering when the pavement was being pounded practically non-stop by checkers suggests a little more planning would be needed.

Further as the checking on the Thursday night was markedly different from previous nights it's surprising that he chose that night to strike.
#Borishasfailed

Offline Brietta

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #961 on: February 14, 2017, 12:19:47 PM »
I take it you are talking about the Mrs Fenn incident as one of these.  Her apartment wasn't part of the OC so there's no reason to assume MW was aware of this.  From memory, she didn't raise it with the police until her statement in something like September.

That leaves one other incident, which may or may not have been reported to the OC or the police, but it first surfaces in the PJ Files long after the complainants had returned to the UK.

Unless there was an original report to the police, I'm not quite sure what you expect they should have done.

Most of the staff indicated nothing unusual occurred in the run-up, though at least one did mention petty thefts in the complex, without much elaboration.

You mean Mrs Fenn didn't mention the trauma of taking on an intruder in her home to her hairdresser?

I have no idea how many occupants of apartments which had been illicitly entered reported the violation to the police.

Any who required to claim on their insurance would be required to file a police report ... had they time ... as I believe the optimum time for these home invasions to occur is the penultimate day of the holiday.  Connections and flights?

The assaults on some British children were reported ... a DNA sample retrieved from one has been mentioned ... and the British ambassador told Kate.

If the police didn't already know it ... if the police failed to make inquiries either to find out prior instances or to fill in gaps in existing knowledge ... in my opinion it illustrates monumental ineptitude in gathering real evidence.

The smoke and mirrors approach of deciding what had happened and tailoring all to fit might lead to unsafe convictions and another notch on a CV.  It is incompetent.
It does not lead to either the recovery of a missing child or discovering what had actually happened to the missing child.
The remit of Operation Grange is to investigate ...  "(as if the abduction occurred in the UK)"

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #962 on: February 14, 2017, 12:37:52 PM »
You mean Mrs Fenn didn't mention the trauma of taking on an intruder in her home to her hairdresser?

I have no idea how many occupants of apartments which had been illicitly entered reported the violation to the police.

Any who required to claim on their insurance would be required to file a police report ... had they time ... as I believe the optimum time for these home invasions to occur is the penultimate day of the holiday.  Connections and flights?

The assaults on some British children were reported ... a DNA sample retrieved from one has been mentioned ... and the British ambassador told Kate.

If the police didn't already know it ... if the police failed to make inquiries either to find out prior instances or to fill in gaps in existing knowledge ... in my opinion it illustrates monumental ineptitude in gathering real evidence.

The smoke and mirrors approach of deciding what had happened and tailoring all to fit might lead to unsafe convictions and another notch on a CV.  It is incompetent.
It does not lead to either the recovery of a missing child or discovering what had actually happened to the missing child.
May I ask what relevance Mrs Fenn talking to her hairdresser has?  That's neither the OC route nor the PJ route.  Did she say she had reported it earlier than the Files show?
What's up, old man?

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #963 on: February 14, 2017, 12:42:30 PM »
You mean Mrs Fenn didn't mention the trauma of taking on an intruder in her home to her hairdresser?

I have no idea how many occupants of apartments which had been illicitly entered reported the violation to the police.

Any who required to claim on their insurance would be required to file a police report ... had they time ... as I believe the optimum time for these home invasions to occur is the penultimate day of the holiday.  Connections and flights?

The assaults on some British children were reported ... a DNA sample retrieved from one has been mentioned ... and the British ambassador told Kate.

If the police didn't already know it ... if the police failed to make inquiries either to find out prior instances or to fill in gaps in existing knowledge ... in my opinion it illustrates monumental ineptitude in gathering real evidence.

The smoke and mirrors approach of deciding what had happened and tailoring all to fit might lead to unsafe convictions and another notch on a CV.  It is incompetent.
It does not lead to either the recovery of a missing child or discovering what had actually happened to the missing child.

Do you have a cite for the DNA?
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline carlymichelle

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #964 on: February 14, 2017, 12:46:25 PM »
why would mrs fenn talk to her hairdresser about  this case??

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #965 on: February 14, 2017, 01:01:46 PM »
Further as the checking on the Thursday night was markedly different from previous nights it's surprising that he chose that night to strike.
The timing might well have been different.

The frequency might or might not have increased.

However, that changes the probability odds only if an abductor was basing his action purely on timing.  If his action was event based, it matters not a jot about the timing/frequency.

The core events were all of the T9 assembled.  Starters and mains were ordered.

Window of opportunity for the T9 to conduct another check, as per usual.

Starters arrive.  Window of opportunity for abduction, though no bigger than the time to eat a starter.

Starters eaten.  Window of opportunity for the T9 to conduct another check, as per usual.

Mains begin to be served.  Window of opportunity for abduction, large enough whether an entry point was the patio door, the front door or even the bedroom window.

Mains over.  Window of opportunity for the T9 to conduct another check, as per usual.

Not a single person mentions interrupting starters or interrupting mains to do a check.  Jane Tanner ate hurriedly, but did not get up in the middle of her main course.

The pattern, to all intents and purposes, was the same as previous nights, thus highly predictable.
What's up, old man?

Offline jassi

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #966 on: February 14, 2017, 01:07:10 PM »
The timing might well have been different.

The frequency might or might not have increased.

However, that changes the probability odds only if an abductor was basing his action purely on timing.  If his action was event based, it matters not a jot about the timing/frequency.

The core events were all of the T9 assembled.  Starters and mains were ordered.

Window of opportunity for the T9 to conduct another check, as per usual.

Starters arrive.  Window of opportunity for abduction, though no bigger than the time to eat a starter.

Starters eaten.  Window of opportunity for the T9 to conduct another check, as per usual.

Mains begin to be served.  Window of opportunity for abduction, large enough whether an entry point was the patio door, the front door or even the bedroom window.

Mains over.  Window of opportunity for the T9 to conduct another check, as per usual.

Not a single person mentions interrupting starters or interrupting mains to do a check.  Jane Tanner ate hurriedly, but did not get up in the middle of her main course.

The pattern, to all intents and purposes, was the same as previous nights, thus highly predictable.

Yes, except that on other nights they may not have got up to check at all, so the evenings could have been one long opportunity for the phantom abductor.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 01:20:30 PM by jassi »
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -   Into year 13 and still no solution.

Offline Brietta

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #967 on: February 14, 2017, 01:15:25 PM »
Do you have a cite for the DNA?

Of course I do.

Quote

Now, after all the innuendo, Jornal de Notícias has carried a report saying that DNA evidence has ruled Euclides out.

PJ police still working on the theory that Madeleine was abducted by a sexual predator have found no evidence to link her disappearance with the dead man.

“The name Euclides Monteiro did not fall from the sky and was convenient because he was deceased”, an officer told the Guardian earlier this year.

According to JN, it was the PJ’s suspicions of Monteiro that lead them to reopen the Portuguese investigation into the toddler’s disappearance.

His mobile phone was logged as being active in the area on the night that Madeleine disappeared, he was a former employee at the Ocean Club - apparently sacked for petty thieving - and his description matched that of a suspect sought for alleged sex attacks on British children in the Algarve between 2004-2006.

A semem sample recovered from one of the attacks was tested against Euclides own DNA, but, as JN revealed last week, it has been found to be different. As there was also no DNA evidence linking Euclides with the McCann’s Ocean Club apartment, the dead man’s family’s claim that he was being used as a scapegoat would appear to hold some weight.
http://portugalresident.com/madeleine-dna-finally-clears-dead-suspect
The remit of Operation Grange is to investigate ...  "(as if the abduction occurred in the UK)"

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #968 on: February 14, 2017, 01:59:12 PM »
Of course I do.

Quote

Now, after all the innuendo, Jornal de Notícias has carried a report saying that DNA evidence has ruled Euclides out.

PJ police still working on the theory that Madeleine was abducted by a sexual predator have found no evidence to link her disappearance with the dead man.

“The name Euclides Monteiro did not fall from the sky and was convenient because he was deceased”, an officer told the Guardian earlier this year.

According to JN, it was the PJ’s suspicions of Monteiro that lead them to reopen the Portuguese investigation into the toddler’s disappearance.

His mobile phone was logged as being active in the area on the night that Madeleine disappeared, he was a former employee at the Ocean Club - apparently sacked for petty thieving - and his description matched that of a suspect sought for alleged sex attacks on British children in the Algarve between 2004-2006.

A semem sample recovered from one of the attacks was tested against Euclides own DNA, but, as JN revealed last week, it has been found to be different. As there was also no DNA evidence linking Euclides with the McCann’s Ocean Club apartment, the dead man’s family’s claim that he was being used as a scapegoat would appear to hold some weight.
http://portugalresident.com/madeleine-dna-finally-clears-dead-suspect
I could be wrong, but I think the unattributed Portugal Resident report does not understand how DNA testing works in Portugal.

From memory, I believe Sr Monteiro was interviewed re the earlier assaults, DNA tested against those, and was found not to match.

I believe that it was not possible nor legal to force Sr Monteiro to give a DNA sample, whether he was deemed a witness or an arguido.  So if this matching function was carried out, I presume he was asked to give consent for a DNA test and did so.

A DNA record is enforceable in Portugal only when the sentence is 3 years or more, and only when the judge orders it after conviction.  The DNA database was not set up until much later.  There shouldn't be a record for Sr Monteiro on the database, so where did the sample to check on 5A come from?

Portugal also prevents DNA fishing - the use of DNA obtained in one case to be used in another, until such times as the sample is in the database subsequent to a 3 year conviction.

Unless my understanding of DNA checking in Portugal is seriously flawed, running Monteiro against DNA in 5A is neither possible nor legal.

I need to locate the JdN report to see what it actually said.
What's up, old man?

Offline Brietta

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #969 on: February 14, 2017, 02:17:26 PM »
I could be wrong, but I think the unattributed Portugal Resident report does not understand how DNA testing works in Portugal.

From memory, I believe Sr Monteiro was interviewed re the earlier assaults, DNA tested against those, and was found not to match.

I believe that it was not possible nor legal to force Sr Monteiro to give a DNA sample, whether he was deemed a witness or an arguido.  So if this matching function was carried out, I presume he was asked to give consent for a DNA test and did so.

A DNA record is enforceable in Portugal only when the sentence is 3 years or more, and only when the judge orders it after conviction.  The DNA database was not set up until much later.  There shouldn't be a record for Sr Monteiro on the database, so where did the sample to check on 5A come from?

Portugal also prevents DNA fishing - the use of DNA obtained in one case to be used in another, until such times as the sample is in the database subsequent to a 3 year conviction.

Unless my understanding of DNA checking in Portugal is seriously flawed, running Monteiro against DNA in 5A is neither possible nor legal.

I need to locate the JdN report to see what it actually said.

Euclides Monteiro is probably one of the few in Portugal with fewer rights than the McCanns as a result of being dead and unable to defend himself.
The remit of Operation Grange is to investigate ...  "(as if the abduction occurred in the UK)"

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #970 on: February 14, 2017, 02:24:20 PM »
Euclides Monteiro is probably one of the few in Portugal with fewer rights than the McCanns as a result of being dead and unable to defend himself.
Dead people in Portugal are entitled to the right of a good name for 50 years after death.

If Sr Monteiro gave up his rights to a good name by breaching judicial secrecy and publishing his own version of events, things might be different.
What's up, old man?

Offline ChloeR

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #971 on: February 14, 2017, 02:25:45 PM »
I kind of flip flop on opinions in this case so I have a few 'versions' of what could have happened. Abduction? I feel it is so much more likely the child left the appartment herself and was then taken by an oppurtunistic abductor. Though we are repeatedly told this was not a possibility. Quite why, I have no idea...kids are little Houdinis and when you think they really could not do something, they can surprise you. Case in point, when my daughter was 2..I was really ill and was kinda just lying on the sofa feeling sorry for myself while she played. I must have dozed off for a few minutes and I woke up to the sound of my kitchen door. My daughter had took they keys off the bench (had to climb on a chair to get them), put them in the door and actually unlocked it, dragged chair to door to undot the deadlock thing that was half way up it. Now, I don't think she would have actually have left the house as she was really clingy at that stage, but kids...their minds work differently to ours I think and you can never really understand them or know what they are capable of.

It is of course also possible that the mystery person just took a massive risk that another check wasn't on its way (given the checks seem to be erratic, going on statements and such) and just entered via the unlocked door, took Madeleine, exited via same door and left. No fingerprints necessary, footprints may have been there but so many people trampled through that place before the police even arrived...

« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 02:40:37 PM by Brietta »

Offline Brietta

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #972 on: February 14, 2017, 02:36:09 PM »
Dead people in Portugal are entitled to the right of a good name for 50 years after death.

If Sr Monteiro gave up his rights to a good name by breaching judicial secrecy and publishing his own version of events, things might be different.

One wonders if Euclides Monteiro was the named disgruntled employee who led to Amaral's career suicidal outburst?
The remit of Operation Grange is to investigate ...  "(as if the abduction occurred in the UK)"

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #973 on: February 14, 2017, 02:47:28 PM »
Already answered. There's no way he could have 'known' the children were alone because previously adults had remained in the apartments (Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday).  Did he really watch 5A from 5.30om to 9.45 pm?
That's the only way he could deduce that no baby-sitter was in there. Did he pick Madeleine up and then squeeze between those cots to open the window, or open it first then pick her up?  8(>((
How many times did adults remain in Apartment 5a that week?  Anyone watching the apartment that night would have known for certain that there was no babysitter otherwise there would have been no checks.  As for your last question, I would think the window was opened prior to removing Madeleine from her bed, the cots did not completely restrict access to the window. 

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #974 on: February 14, 2017, 02:49:32 PM »
Had he intended entering at night when everyone was sleeping the knowledge you propose might have been enough. Entering when the pavement was being pounded practically non-stop by checkers suggests a little more planning would be needed.
"pounded practically non-stop by checkers" is cheap hyperbole on your part.  There was at least 10 minutes towards the end of the meal when 8 members remained seated.