Author Topic: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?  (Read 49697 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline ChloeR

Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« on: February 14, 2017, 03:33:56 PM »
My opinions on abduction are this

Of course it is a possibility. I feel though, it is more likely with the checking timeframes that Madeleine left the apartment on her own and was then picked up by an opportunistic criminal. I feel if someone had been  watching the family, they would be extremely unlikely to enter the apartment given the checking regime was so erratic and there were so many checks and pretty much at any given time there would be a member of the group passing apartment 5A. I also feel DNA evidence of an abductor is not really needed. Someone could have been in there for seconds, taken Madeleine and left, entering and leaving via the open door. Footprints may well have existed however there were a huge amount of people trampling through the apartment before the police even arrived, so any footprints or whatever would have been long gone, so in that respect, if there was an abductor..they were very lucky that the police weren't called immediately and that so many people were allowed into the crime scene. I think leaving/entering via the window is ridiculously unlikely.

Now onto the part of my post that really does open up the possibility of someone who had been watching the families specifically targeting them rather than it being someone opportunistic. I also feel this possibility clears up a lot of the discrepancies in statements, the crying incident 2 days prior where a child was crying for over an hour, the unlikely theory of someone watching then taking when checks were so regular...also makes a possibility that the abductor was long gone before the alarm was even raised and opens up a much larger timeframe than the few minutes that currently exists.

I think there is a large possibility that the checks did not happen as some have claimed. That the children were left and checked on maybe once or twice throughout the night. IF this happened then someone watching the families would know they could most definitely get in and out without being caught. All they would need to do is wait for one check to be done, or go in right after the parents left for the Tapas. It would definitely explain the oddity of the Tapas group sitting down writing timelines of checks rather than going out to actually search. i always thought that was such a weird thing to do...a child is missing and your primary concern is writing down what you were doing at that time?

This theory does (IMO) make so much sense given the circumstances. It gives both reason for the changes in timeline, the weirdness of writing out the timeline in the first place, Mrs Fenns statement about a long period of crying..

I am in no way suggesting the parents had a hand in the actual disappearance, nor accusing the rest of the group of anything.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 12:52:34 AM by John »

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2017, 04:05:47 PM »
It would certainly make abduction more feasible and less risky.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline misty

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2017, 12:22:33 AM »
My opinions on abduction are this

Of course it is a possibility. I feel though, it is more likely with the checking timeframes that Madeleine left the apartment on her own and was then picked up by an opportunistic criminal. I feel if someone had been  watching the family, they would be extremely unlikely to enter the apartment given the checking regime was so erratic and there were so many checks and pretty much at any given time there would be a member of the group passing apartment 5A. I also feel DNA evidence of an abductor is not really needed. Someone could have been in there for seconds, taken Madeleine and left, entering and leaving via the open door. Footprints may well have existed however there were a huge amount of people trampling through the apartment before the police even arrived, so any footprints or whatever would have been long gone, so in that respect, if there was an abductor..they were very lucky that the police weren't called immediately and that so many people were allowed into the crime scene. I think leaving/entering via the window is ridiculously unlikely.

Now onto the part of my post that really does open up the possibility of someone who had been watching the families specifically targeting them rather than it being someone opportunistic. I also feel this possibility clears up a lot of the discrepancies in statements, the crying incident 2 days prior where a child was crying for over an hour, the unlikely theory of someone watching then taking when checks were so regular...also makes a possibility that the abductor was long gone before the alarm was even raised and opens up a much larger timeframe than the few minutes that currently exists.

I think there is a large possibility that the checks did not happen as some have claimed. That the children were left and checked on maybe once or twice throughout the night. IF this happened then someone watching the families would know they could most definitely get in and out without being caught. All they would need to do is wait for one check to be done, or go in right after the parents left for the Tapas. It would definitely explain the oddity of the Tapas group sitting down writing timelines of checks rather than going out to actually search. i always thought that was such a weird thing to do...a child is missing and your primary concern is writing down what you were doing at that time?

This theory does (IMO) make so much sense given the circumstances. It gives both reason for the changes in timeline, the weirdness of writing out the timeline in the first place, Mrs Fenns statement about a long period of crying..

I am in no way suggesting the parents had a hand in the actual disappearance, nor accusing the rest of the group of anything.

I suggest that the timeline would have been the logical suggestion of one of the Tapas group other than the McCanns, possibly recalling what the police told Kevin Wells to do in the Soham murders case. It was quite sensible to work out early on when Madeleine was last seen, who had been to the apartment, who had walked past the apartment etc to look for the window of opportunity. Had the McCanns been isolated, i.e, not surrounded by intelligent friends, then the preparation of a timeline would have been very questionable given their state of panic.
IMO the group were watched but possibly for only one or two nights max. There was always a chance the routine could change, which we were told it did on the Thursday. IMO the abductor was nearly caught in the act.
I'm afraid I take Mrs Fenn's statement about the crying with a pinch of salt. She spoke with her niece, Carole Tranmer, a few days after the disappearance & mentioned nothing about the crying episode as far as I can see in Carole's statement.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 12:53:26 AM by John »

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2017, 05:58:24 AM »
I think if we take the Tapas Group at their word, there was a window of opportunity of approximately 10 minutes between 9.45 and 9.55 pm, ample time in which to remove a sleeping child from an unlocked ground floor apartment with easy access to the road.

Offline barrier

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2017, 07:10:14 AM »
Yet with an investigation running into millions of pounds getting on towards six years Britain's supposed finest the MET just can't make it that simple.
This is my own private domicile and I shall not be harassed, biatch:Jesse Pinkman Character.

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2017, 07:38:33 AM »
Yet with an investigation running into millions of pounds getting on towards six years Britain's supposed finest the MET just can't make it that simple.
the Met already identified a window of opportunity, now they just need to find out who seized that opportunity which is obviously easier said than done.

Offline jassi

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2017, 09:12:51 AM »
This window of opportunity was identified several years ago and since then SY have presumably been deploying competent officers to identify a culprit - so far to no avail.
Unless they are given more money to continue, they will wind up with no abductor. Even with additional funding, they may still  fail.

An opportunity to do something does not mean that something was done.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2017, 09:28:09 AM »
This window of opportunity was identified several years ago and since then SY have presumably been deploying competent officers to identify a culprit - so far to no avail.
Unless they are given more money to continue, they will wind up with no abductor. Even with additional funding, they may still  fail.

An opportunity to do something does not mean that something was done.
Something happened so it seems like something was done.
Moderation
John has instructed all moderators to take a very strong line with posters who constantly breach the rules of this forum.  This sniping, goading, name calling and other various forms of disruption will cease.

Offline jassi

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2017, 09:29:46 AM »
Something happened so it seems like something was done.

Yes, but not necessarily during that time window. It is a possibility but not a certainty.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2017, 09:48:35 AM »
Yes, but not necessarily during that time window. It is a possibility but not a certainty.
True.  Only one knows.  If Smithman was carrying Madeleine you would think the event was close to 10:00 for where he was seen is only minutes from the Ocean Club.  I wonder if SIL could tell us how long it would take to get there from Apartment 5A.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 04:04:37 PM by Robittybob1 »
Moderation
John has instructed all moderators to take a very strong line with posters who constantly breach the rules of this forum.  This sniping, goading, name calling and other various forms of disruption will cease.

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2017, 10:09:00 AM »
True.  Only one knows.  If Smithman was carrying Madeleine you would think the even was close to 10:00 for where he was seen is only minutes from the Ocean Club.  I wonder if SIL could tell us how long it would take to get there from Apartment 5A.
Measure it on Google Earth, or similar.

Calculate the time at Smithman's reported normal walking pace.  That's 4mph or about 100m per minute.

The last time I was asked to do this I was requested to factor in carrying a 30lb sack of spuds.

Just do the distance check.  Smithman was, allegedly, much younger than me.
What's up, old man?

Offline Eleanor

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2017, 10:12:57 AM »

Smithman could have hidden somewhere while waiting for a pickup, possibly at the beach.

Offline Benice

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2017, 11:34:14 AM »
Smithman could have hidden somewhere while waiting for a pickup, possibly at the beach.

He could have been parked up in a car somewhere - waiting for instructions, especially if it was planned to remove her by sea.

The notion that innocence prevails over guilt – when there is no evidence to the contrary – is what separates civilization from barbarism.    Unfortunately, there are remains of barbarism among us.    Until very recently, it headed the PJ in Portimão. I hope he was the last one.
                                               Henrique Monteiro, chief editor, Expresso, Portugal

Offline Eleanor

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2017, 11:39:38 AM »
He could have been parked up in a car somewhere - waiting for instructions, especially if it was planned to remove her by sea.

What I think.

Offline jassi

Re: Was stranger abduction unlikely due to the checking regime?
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2017, 11:42:48 AM »
Of course Smithman may have nothing to do with the drama at all. OG haven't publicly ruled him in or out.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future