What Happened To Madeleine McCann? - by Ian Horrocks.

[G-Unit]

From memory, I would summarise his theory as having a core consisting of the following.

That there is a vantage point to the south of block 4, from which one could monitor the Tapas group, whilst being both unseen and in 100% safety.  That from that point, it would be possible to carry out an abduction, with very low risk, for the simple reason that one can monitor the Tapas group nearly 100% of the time.

It doesn't matter whether an alleged abductor used the front door with a key, or the rear through unlocked patio doors.

There is such a vantage point and it is a regular on my tours.  From that start point it was possible for a lone person to carry out an abduction, with a high degree of safety and a high chance of success.

I happen to think that key control at the OC was weak, for several reasons.  Mr Horrocks appears not to know this.

Mr Horrocks appears not to have scrutinised the time line in sufficient detail, nor has he analysed the pattern of activity of the T9 that week.  I have.  Accordingly, I am confident there was a predictable window of opportunity when starters began being served.  There was a longer window of opportunity which began when the main courses were served.

So without analysing the timeline or the group's activity he just took a punt at it anyway. The more I learn about the Met the less they impress.

[misty]

Reds under the bed !

A reason to sack the chief investigator, no less.

[G-Unit]

Reds under the bed !

I wonder who went to the trouble of digging out Mrs Smith's maiden name?

[Alice Purjorick]

A reason to sack the chief investigator, no less.

The font face is the same.
What is the law in Portugal regarding information required on electronic print outs of till receipts?
Have you checked all the reference code numbers to ensure they either tally or are hooky ?
Did the SIO?
Do you have a control print out that indicates that there is or isn't a problem with print alignment?

[misty]

The font face is the same.
What is the law in Portugal regarding information required on electronic print outs of till receipts?
Have you checked all the reference code numbers to ensure they either tally or are hooky ?
Did the SIO?
Do you have a control print out that indicates that there is or isn't a problem with print alignment?

I have no idea, Alice. It was merely an observation of something which doesn't look quite right but I doubt the SIO checked anything out as the receipt is not at odds with the Smith booking, other than an Irishman allowing a woman to settle a large bill.

[ShiningInLuz]

So without analysing the timeline or the group's activity he just took a punt at it anyway. The more I learn about the Met the less they impress.

I may be mixing Mr Horrocks up with guy allegedly told to steer clear of OG.  So I may be doing him a disservice.

However, as a retired police officer he is at certain advantages to us, in others on a par with us, and in others at a disadvantage to us.

I see Mr Horrocks has visited the scene, and has worked out with accuracy where such a scheme could be implemented, how long it would take, and one escape route that shows how quickly a perpetrator would be safe from the Tapas 9.

I know there are other escape-to-safety routes dotted around 5A.

Having worked out that an abduction could be executed in 2 minutes, with safety taking around 30 seconds, Mr Horrocks has no need to analyse the time frame further.  The published time frames have plenty of 2 minute gaps.  In this respect, Mr Horrocks is on a par with us, as neither he nor we have access to the people who might be able to refine the time line.

Mr Horrocks is at a disadvantage to us in a key respect.  Talking Heads are expected to chop and change between cases as the media requires.  The one and only case I am interested in is Madeleine.

I have yet to review the Panorama special, but there is one small segment that may, indirectly, have originated with me.  That comes with focus on this one case, plus some input from forum members who are rigorous in their cross-checks, plus a lot more knowledge of Luz than Mr Horrocks.

[ShiningInLuz]

I have no idea, Alice. It was merely an observation of something which doesn't look quite right but I doubt the SIO checked anything out as the receipt is not at odds with the Smith booking, other than an Irishman allowing a woman to settle a large bill.

And if the two Irishmen were already in Kelly's, is there any reason a woman was incapable of settling the bill?

[misty]

And if the two Irishmen were already in Kelly's, is there any reason a woman was incapable of settling the bill?

A woman is perfectly capable of settling a bill. It's just that men of a certain generation don't tend (in my experience) to let women be seen paying for anything- especially an ill, pregnant woman.

[ShiningInLuz]

A woman is perfectly capable of settling a bill. It's just that men of a certain generation don't tend (in my experience) to let women be seen paying for anything- especially an ill, pregnant woman.

Is it unusual, in your experience, for men to nip to the local to watch football on TV, leaving the women to look after the children as the kids tucked into desserts?  Hence a woman would pay the bill.

[misty]

Is it unusual, in your experience, for men to nip to the local to watch football on TV, leaving the women to look after the children as the kids tucked into desserts?  Hence a woman would pay the bill.

Not unusual, no, but rather rude given it was the last night for one couple & the lady wasn't well.
Only 2 UEFA Cup matches that night + some Finnish League fixtures. Sevilla v Osasuna kicked off at 7.45pm your time so would have been finished by 9.30pm - hardly worth bothering about.

[Alfie]

The McCanns can't sue everyone who presents a theory which opposes their own and what's the use of suing a man of straw ? The Mccanns have almost exclusively gone after organisations who would yield a decent payback.

As to theories I have presented you with a plausible one ( logic is very much more a subjective thing) many times. The fact that you dismiss it does not lessen it's plausibility.

Here's a question for you Alfie. Give me one example, just one will do, of a child who has been targeted in the way ( not for ransom) that Horrocks suggests ? Horrocks doesn't give one and I'm sure if he had one he would have included it. Therefore his 'experience' is a somewhat moot point if that 'experience' has not included his suggested scenario.

There was one case recently highlighted on this forum in the US (or was it Australia) when the abductor was seen in CCTV hanging around the victim's house on previous evening(s) to the abduction.  Targeted.  That's just from memory. 
As for your theory being plausible - no.  Just no.  Would you genuinely feel proud to present your theory to Horrocks or Sutton or anyone at the Met?  Do you think they'd reply "yes Faithlilly that really is very plausible"?  Because if you do I would say you are deluding yourself rather seriously. 

[ShiningInLuz]

Not unusual, no, but rather rude given it was the last night for one couple & the lady wasn't well.
Only 2 UEFA Cup matches that night + some Finnish League fixtures. Sevilla v Osasuna kicked off at 7.45pm your time so would have been finished by 9.30pm - hardly worth bothering about.

I know exactly when the games finished.  It's public record.

If you wish to pooh-pooh my explanation, what's yours?

Simple question.  With an early flight the next morning, a pregnant unwell lady, a bill signed by neither 'gentleman', WTF do you think they headed to Kelly's for?

Any 2 + 2 = 4 will do it for me.   

[Brietta]

Is it unusual, in your experience, for men to nip to the local to watch football on TV, leaving the women to look after the children as the kids tucked into desserts?  Hence a woman would pay the bill.

Irrespective of who lifted the tab for the meal ... there is no indication of who paid for the drinks in Kelly's.

[Alfie]

FAO: Faithlilly:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1988653/chilling-footage-of-serial-child-abductor-who-entered-victims-homes-in-early-hours-as-parents-slept/

Targeted abduction. 

[Brietta]

I know exactly when the games finished.  It's public record.

If you wish to pooh-pooh my explanation, what's yours?

Simple question.  With an early flight the next morning, a pregnant unwell lady, a bill signed by neither 'gentleman', WTF do you think they headed to Kelly's for?

Any 2 + 2 = 4 will do it for me.   

Kelly's sells cigarettes ... did the restaurant?