CMTV Gonçalo Amaral - O Enigma - with English subtitles

[Mr Gray]

Without any evidence, which is basically the situation, they can be given equal weighting.

so you are saying that abduction is as likely as an accident.....

[stephen25000]

so you are saying that abduction is as likely as an accident.....

Have you studied Stats  ?

[slartibartfast]

Without any evidence, which is basically the situation, they can be given equal weighting.

I think without evidence you would have to fall back on historical data which wouldn't give equal weighting and would probably give a high probability to woke and wandered.

[stephen25000]

I think without evidence you would have to fall back on historical data which wouldn't give equal weighting and would probably give a high probability to woke and wandered.

Fair point Slarti.

[Mr Gray]

Are you saying Dave,  that Martin Grime was doing the detecting and not the dogs ? 

to me they are a team

[Mr Gray]

so we have an agreement that all scenarios are not equal....which is the point I made and stephen disagreed with

[stephen25000]

to me they are a team

The dogs do the detecting Dave,  not Martin Grime.

[Mr Gray]

The dogs do the detecting Dave,  not Martin Grime.

i never used the word detecting...check back ...i used the word found....sorry but you are wrong again....the dog tells grime where to look ...then grime finds the evidence...

[stephen25000]

so we have an agreement that all scenarios are not equal....which is the point I made and stephen disagreed with

You have been trying to imply that 'abduction' is the most likely scenario, without anything to back it up.

I merely pointed out that there is b....r all evidence of anything.

So, it is rather difficult to give odds in such a circumstance.

Hence why I said equal weighting.

[Alice Purjorick]

I think without evidence you would have to fall back on historical data which wouldn't give equal weighting and would probably give a high probability to woke and wandered.

Forgive me for I am only a simple whatever it is I do for a living (I can't recall what that is just now) but is that the same as abduction is an odds on racing cert. ?

[stephen25000]

i never used the word detecting...check back ...i used the word found....sorry but you are wrong again....the dog tells grime where to look ...then grime finds the evidence...

The forensic team gathers the evidence Dave.

Grime is a handler, and the dogs indicate, given stimuli.

[Mr Gray]

That's not evidence.

It is  expressed opinions.

P.S. The archiving report said 'walk and wondered' was unlikely, not impossible.

Bottom line, they did not know what happened.

if its unlikely ...then we reduce the chance of woke and wandered which increases teh chance of abduction

[sadie]

Not so, the alerts were indicative of cadaver odour, not proof.

They are not even that, let alone any forensic evidence of which there was none.

All they are evidence of is that there was dessicated blood from a living person there, which is highly likely, in fact inevitable, as the apartment was built many many years before .... and there would have been minor accidents involving minor bleeds in there at times over the years.

No forensic confirmation of anything.  Poor Amaral, he is on a loser there IMO   

[G-Unit]

They are not even that, let alone any forensic evidence of which there was none.

All they are evidence of is that there was dessicated blood from a living person there, which is highly likely, in fact inevitable, as the apartment was built many many years before .... and there would have been minor accidents involving minor bleeds in there at times over the years.

No forensic confirmation of anything.  Poor Amaral, he is on a loser there IMO

If a dog alerts and no forensic evidence is found does that mean the dog is wrong? No, there are other cases where the dogs were found to be right later.

Do these dogs alert to minor accidents and bleeds? That's unlikely because they'd alert everywhere they were deployed. In this case I would have expected them to alert in Murat's house, for example.

I don't know if the dogs were right or wrong and neither does anyone else. Scepticism about the dogs seems to reside mostly in those who support the parents. Some of their attempts to discredit the dogs and their handler have been quite ridiculous.

[slartibartfast]

I was replying to Slarti's post which I had read. As a result of having read Slarti's post I asked him for clarification of his post.
So what post are you referring to and how does it's content impact on my request for clarification of Slarti's post ?

If we look at all cases of missing children, then the initial cause of the disappearance is most likely to be the child leaving the place where they were supposed to be. The number removed from that place is very small, so given no evidence of what happened in this case the most likely scenario is that Madeleine left the apartment under her own steam.