Discussion of points raised in Danny Collins' book Vanished ...

[stephen25000]

As to Victims of crime.

That has get to be determined, assuming there was one.

[Brietta]

Mr. Sutton has been discussed extensively.

He was offered the post..

He refused because the Mccanns would be off limits

Detective Colin Sutton has drawn on his 30 years of policing to compile a list of the five most likely situations

By Paul Jollands
23:00, 21 APR 2017
Updated23:03, 21 APR 2017

There are five possible scenarios that could explain Madeleine McCann’s disappearance.

Colin Sutton has drawn on his 30 years of policing to compile the list.

He says: “Detectives like to put all the scenarios down in a flow chart system.

They then methodically go down each scenario and all the forks and branches that come off them.

“You go down the most likely scenario – the one likely to bring you success more quickly – and may come to a stage where you realise it’s the wrong scenario.

"Then you go back to the beginning and choose the next scenario.

“It’s like a game of snakes and ladders which carries on until you have exhausted all the options.”

The scenarios he came up with include one that she wandered out of apartment 5A by herself and had a fatal accident.

Another possibility is that a paedophile was watching the McCann family and deliberately targeted the youngster.

Here, Colin looks in detail at the five scenarios – and comes up with the most likely explanation for Madeleine’s disappearance.

1 The McCanns or the Tapas Seven

I can understand why the Portuguese police asked questions about the McCanns and the Tapas Seven.
As uncomfortable as it is, the first place I would have started looking is their group.

Without any other information to go on, the most likely scenario when a three-year-old girl disappears into thin air is that someone close to her knows what happened.

However, the police do appear to have decided quite quickly that was the only line of investigation they were going to take.

By concentrating just on that scenario they may have missed tips or other lines that meant going down a completely different investigation route.

2 Targeted kidnap by a trafficking gang
This is the most likely scenario once those closely linked to Madeleine have been ruled out.

This was not the first night that Madeleine and the twins had been left alone.

Crucially there was a routine.

If you were watching you would know there were three children in that apartment and the parents were in the tapas restaurant.
It would make it easier for abductors to pull it off.

Not only that, but if the Tapas group’s timings are accurate, it gave the abductor a 30-minute slot where they knew they would not be disturbed. Given all the facts we know, it’s the most likely and credible scenario.

A trafficking ring is more likely than a lone paedophile or paedophile ring.
Yes there are paedophiles, yes she is a little blonde girl.
But I think six and seven-year-old girls are much more at risk from paedophiles or child abuse rings.

Looking at the trafficking angle, unless the order was specifically for a young blonde girl, why her and not one of the twins?

Babies have less memories than a three-year-old.
If Madeleine is alive she will probably remember she had another mother and father and used to live in another house.
No risks of that if you take a baby.
More importantly, babies have far less physical identity. They have not developed as a three or four-year-old has.

If you were stealing on spec you would have taken one of the twins.

Not both, just one.

So it goes back to a specific order for a young blonde girl.

Has a young blonde girl died and their parents want to replace her? Or is there another reason for stealing to order? When you pick it all apart it’s the most likely scenario.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/madeleine-mccann-stolen-order-just-10272346


Logically, can you envisage why Colin Sutton might have had any qualms about following a remit which mirrored a similar idea to his own?

[stephen25000]

Detective Colin Sutton has drawn on his 30 years of policing to compile a list of the five most likely situations

By Paul Jollands
23:00, 21 APR 2017
Updated23:03, 21 APR 2017

There are five possible scenarios that could explain Madeleine McCann’s disappearance.

Colin Sutton has drawn on his 30 years of policing to compile the list.

He says: “Detectives like to put all the scenarios down in a flow chart system.

They then methodically go down each scenario and all the forks and branches that come off them.

“You go down the most likely scenario – the one likely to bring you success more quickly – and may come to a stage where you realise it’s the wrong scenario.

"Then you go back to the beginning and choose the next scenario.

“It’s like a game of snakes and ladders which carries on until you have exhausted all the options.”

The scenarios he came up with include one that she wandered out of apartment 5A by herself and had a fatal accident.

Another possibility is that a paedophile was watching the McCann family and deliberately targeted the youngster.

Here, Colin looks in detail at the five scenarios – and comes up with the most likely explanation for Madeleine’s disappearance.

1 The McCanns or the Tapas Seven

I can understand why the Portuguese police asked questions about the McCanns and the Tapas Seven.
As uncomfortable as it is, the first place I would have started looking is their group.

Without any other information to go on, the most likely scenario when a three-year-old girl disappears into thin air is that someone close to her knows what happened.

However, the police do appear to have decided quite quickly that was the only line of investigation they were going to take.

By concentrating just on that scenario they may have missed tips or other lines that meant going down a completely different investigation route.

2 Targeted kidnap by a trafficking gang
This is the most likely scenario once those closely linked to Madeleine have been ruled out.

This was not the first night that Madeleine and the twins had been left alone.

Crucially there was a routine.

If you were watching you would know there were three children in that apartment and the parents were in the tapas restaurant.
It would make it easier for abductors to pull it off.

Not only that, but if the Tapas group’s timings are accurate, it gave the abductor a 30-minute slot where they knew they would not be disturbed. Given all the facts we know, it’s the most likely and credible scenario.

A trafficking ring is more likely than a lone paedophile or paedophile ring.
Yes there are paedophiles, yes she is a little blonde girl.
But I think six and seven-year-old girls are much more at risk from paedophiles or child abuse rings.

Looking at the trafficking angle, unless the order was specifically for a young blonde girl, why her and not one of the twins?

Babies have less memories than a three-year-old.
If Madeleine is alive she will probably remember she had another mother and father and used to live in another house.
No risks of that if you take a baby.
More importantly, babies have far less physical identity. They have not developed as a three or four-year-old has.

If you were stealing on spec you would have taken one of the twins.

Not both, just one.

So it goes back to a specific order for a young blonde girl.

Has a young blonde girl died and their parents want to replace her? Or is there another reason for stealing to order? When you pick it all apart it’s the most likely scenario.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/madeleine-mccann-stolen-order-just-10272346


Logically, can you envisage why Colin Sutton might have had any qualms about following a remit which mirrored a similar idea to his own?

You do realize I have read all this before.

He wanted an open investigation and look at all aspects of the case.

That hasn't happened and we know that already.

[Benice]

Mr. Sutton has been discussed extensively.

He was offered the post..


He refused because the Mccanns would be off limits

That's news to me.   When was he offered the post?

[Brietta]

As to Victims of crime.

That has get to be determined, assuming there was one.

There is no evidence that Madeleine McCann wandered and met with a fatal accident and vanished as a result.

A crime has occurred.

Madeleine's absence is the evidence.

In 2007 the Policia Judiciaria 'assumed' a crime had been committed ... they just hit on the wrong perps.

[stephen25000]

That's news to me.   When was he offered the post?

Really ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4467832/Met-interested-proving-McCann-parents-innocent.html

[Brietta]

You do realize I have read all this before.

He wanted an open investigation and look at all aspects of the case.

That hasn't happened and we know that already.

Then you read it with a closed mind.

You have missed entirely the description of how an investigation is properly conducted by a person who knows.

Quote
He says: “Detectives like to put all the scenarios down in a flow chart system.

They then methodically go down each scenario and all the forks and branches that come off them.

“You go down the most likely scenario – the one likely to bring you success more quickly – and may come to a stage where you realise it’s the wrong scenario.

"Then you go back to the beginning and choose the next scenario.

“It’s like a game of snakes and ladders which carries on until you have exhausted all the options.”
End quote

The suggestion this procedure was not carried out by detectives trained as was Mr Sutton prior to the decision to reopen Madeleine's case is risible.

[stephen25000]

Then you read it with a closed mind.

You have missed entirely the description of how an investigation is properly conducted by a person who knows.

Quote
He says: “Detectives like to put all the scenarios down in a flow chart system.

They then methodically go down each scenario and all the forks and branches that come off them.

“You go down the most likely scenario – the one likely to bring you success more quickly – and may come to a stage where you realise it’s the wrong scenario.

"Then you go back to the beginning and choose the next scenario.

“It’s like a game of snakes and ladders which carries on until you have exhausted all the options.”
End quote

The suggestion this procedure was not carried out by detectives trained as was Mr Sutton prior to the decision to reopen Madeleine's case is risible.

Hardly.

The closed mind as you call it , was in the instructions given to SY.

I don't blame the police for that.

I blame the person or persons who gave the instructions , not to have a thorough and complete investigation.

[Benice]

On the other hand they needed a reason for having their dibs on the window.

If by 'dibs' you mean fingerprints, then I think you will find that it would not be considered unusual for the fingerprints of people who have just spent 5 days living in an apartment to be subsequently found in any part of it.

[Benice]

Really ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4467832/Met-interested-proving-McCann-parents-innocent.html

Nowhere in that article does he say he had been offered the post and that he had turned it down.

The only conversation he had about the case appears to be with another police officer who commented that he didn't think this case would be his cup of tea.   Apparently Sutton didn't seek any clarification of that remark during that phone call.   Would he have done that if he had been offered the job and was mulling it over?   I don't think so.

If Sutton had actually been offered the post and subsequently turned it down  - then I am sure he would have wanted to make that crystal clear. 

Unless and until he does confirm that - I will continue to believe that even if he -  along with others  - was being considered for the post, no firm offer ever transpired.
AIMHO

[stephen25000]

Nowhere in that article does he say he had been offered the post and that he had turned it down.

The only conversation he had about the case appears to be with another police officer who commented that he didn't think this case would be his cup of tea.   Apparently Sutton didn't seek any clarification of that remark during that phone call.   Would he have done that if he had been offered the job and was mulling it over?   I don't think so.

If Sutton had actually been offered the post and subsequently turned it down  - then I am sure he would have wanted to make that crystal clear. 

Unless and until he does confirm that - I will continue to believe that even if he -  along with others  - was being considered for the post, no firm offer ever transpired.
AIMHO

You can believe what you want to.

..and that includes the tooth fairy.

Sutton was no mug.

He knew the lay of the land as an experienced copper.

He wouldn't touch a case with tied hands or a barge pole

Again I blame the person or persons who gave the orders, NOT TO INVESTIGATE THE McCann's.

[Benice]

You can believe what you want to.

..and that includes the tooth fairy.

Sutton was no mug.

He knew the lay of the land as an experienced copper.

He wouldn't touch a case with tied hands or a barge pole

Again I blame the person or persons who gave the orders, NOT TO INVESTIGATE THE McCann's.

You still haven't proved your claim that he had been offered the job but had turned it down.    Until you can then imo you should edit your post to show that it is only your opinion and not the fact you claim it to be.    Posting opinion as fact is against the rules.

[Brietta]

Hardly.

The closed mind as you call it , was in the instructions given to SY.

I don't blame the police for that.

I blame the person or persons who gave the instructions , not to have a thorough and complete investigation.

Before Operation Grange there was a scoping exercise and a review;  the officers involved would carry out exactly the investigative policing procedures Colin Sutton advised his training, and theirs, dictated.

Quite frankly it is beyond my comprehension that there are those who are in denial about that.

[stephen25000]

You still haven't proved your claim that he had been offered the job but had turned it down.    Until you can then imo you should edit your post to show that it is only your opinion and not the fact you claim it to be.    Posting opinion as fact is against the rules.

The situation is very clear cut.

Your denials are no surprise.

[Brietta]

You can believe what you want to.

..and that includes the tooth fairy.

Sutton was no mug.

He knew the lay of the land as an experienced copper.

He wouldn't touch a case with tied hands or a barge pole

Again I blame the person or persons who gave the orders, NOT TO INVESTIGATE THE McCann's.

In my opinion the answer lies yet again in Colin Sutton's description of proper police procedure.

He indicates that his first port of call would have been the child's parents and any others in close proximity:  once that investigation either panned out as the one to be followed or was eliminated ~ time to progress to the next possible scenario and whatever evidence there might be ... and so on down the line.

Quote
I can understand why the Portuguese police asked questions about the McCanns and the Tapas Seven.
As uncomfortable as it is, the first place I would have started looking is their group.

Without any other information to go on, the most likely scenario when a three-year-old girl disappears into thin air is that someone close to her knows what happened.

However, the police do appear to have decided quite quickly that was the only line of investigation they were going to take.

By concentrating just on that scenario they may have missed tips or other lines that meant going down a completely different investigation route.
End quote

The procedure in a cold case review is similarly to go back to the beginning and evaluate all the evidence:  that of course means investigating all the evidence to hand including what is known about those closest to Madeleine when she vanished and when that is done to move on.

How do you think creche man suddenly made his appearance?