Why Were We Lied to By the BBC ?

[Erngath]

Actually, 60% to 80% isn't very sure at all.  Certainly not in a Court of Law.  I doubt that sort of percentage would even be considered.

I agree.

[Wonderfulspam]

I suppose another way of looking at it is, Mr Smith might be only 20-40% sure he saw anyone other than Gerry.

[slartibartfast]

Agreed but even if giving a percentage score, surely someone would say about sixty per cent or about eighty percent depending on their certainty. It's just such a strange way of indicating their strength of belief. Imo.

Do we care, it is an indication of certainty.

[Lace]

If Madeleine had met her death through some kind of accident while alone the police would look far differently on all the children being left alone than if it was claimed she was abducted. That could definitely cause pressures within the group, pressures that Gerry may have exploited IMO.

They all said they had left their children alone.   Being abducted and maybe murdered,  is that not worse than having an accident?   Who in their right mind would go along with a story of abduction if there wasn't one?   Madeleine could have been found and then what?

[Erngath]

Do we care, it is an indication of certainty.

Are you speaking on behalf of the forum?
It is a very wide margin of certainty.
Big difference in sixty percent and eighty percent.
I find it an unusual way of indicating how sure someone is of their belief, whether you care or not!

[Mr Gray]

Are you speaking on behalf of the forum?
It is a very wide margin of certainty.
Big difference in sixty percent and eighty percent.
I find it an unusual way of indicating how sure someone is of their belief, whether you care or not!

60 % is not much more than 50/50...80% is quite sure....
his idea of 60 to 80 % has no real benchmark.....

he simply isnt sure whether the man he saw is Gerry or not

[Mr Gray]

Do we care, it is an indication of certainty.

or uncertainty

[Wonderfulspam]

60 % is not much more than 50/50...80% is quite sure....
his idea of 60 to 80 % has no real benchmark.....

he simply isnt sure whether the man he saw is Gerry or not

....but was more sure than not.

[jassi]

Are you speaking on behalf of the forum?
It is a very wide margin of certainty.
Big difference in sixty percent and eighty percent.
I find it an unusual way of indicating how sure someone is of their belief, whether you care or not!

But certainly on the certain side when measured on the Certainometer. 

[Mr Gray]

....but was more sure than not.

was he....is he fairly sure the man he saw was gerry mccann...based simply on the way he was holding the child hes fairly sure it was Gerry Mccann.....I dont think he would make a very good witness

[Eleanor]

Do we care, it is an indication of certainty.

I would have said an indication of uncertainty.

It could be someone's Liberty at stake here.

[Erngath]

But certainly on the certain side when measured on the Certainometer. 

The point isn't whether he is more certain than uncertain and he indicated that he is more certain than not certain but rather the wide range  in percentages of his certainty.
Now you did agree that it was a strange way of indicating how certain he was.

[Erngath]

was he....is he fairly sure the man he saw was gerry mccann...based simply on the way he was holding the child hes fairly sure it was Gerry Mccann.....I dont think he would make a very good witness

Agreed but I can't imagine he would ever be used as a credible witness.

[Eleanor]

Agreed but I can't imagine he would ever be used as a credible witness.

He wouldn't be.  And I'm certain of that.

[slartibartfast]

I would have said an indication of uncertainty.

It could be someone's Liberty at stake here.

It’s the same thing.