In the absence of forensics indicating entry/exit via the window, are you working on the premise that Madeleine was lured to the front door & opened it herself? If the potential burglar had a key there would have been no need for disturbance at the window & he could let himself in. What would explain the sudden change of motive, with no forethought?
I do not have time to fully reply at the moment, but I am working on the possibility of making an amendment to the theory of Heri Janosch.
From memory he put forward the possibility that MBM recognised the burglar and that formed the motive.
As you say if the potential burglar had a key there would be no need for the window.
Heri suggests that MBM was abducted through the window.
The alternative, as you suggest, is that MBM was lured to door, which may have been easy if she did recognise the individual.
At this point MBM was walked barefooted along the tracker dog route. The tracker dogs would not have detected any other individual.
I hope this is not too much of a stretch, but it is possible JT saw someone at the point she went to 'relieve' ROB, rather than earlier in the evening. Memory fallibility as discussed elsewhere on the forum could easily have impacted JT. The timings look fairly consistent with this modification, otherwise the JT sighting is probably the innocent holiday maker, suggested by SY.
