UK Justice Forum

News and current affairs => The Coronavirus and Covid-19 => Topic started by: Angelo222 on March 07, 2020, 07:47:17 PM

Title: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Angelo222 on March 07, 2020, 07:47:17 PM
According to Boris Johnson the threat from the coronavirus could in the worst scenario see 50 million people infected in the UK and up to 500,000 deaths.

Does anyone have a view on this?  Why has Johnson decided to reveal this information now?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on March 07, 2020, 10:03:37 PM
I do not believe the global scientific community have a handle on the nature of the virus.

I have just returned today to UK from a hol and have today been in big smoke and the place is dead.  If it continues like this the fall out to the economy will be huge. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 09, 2020, 05:51:00 PM
According to Boris Johnson the threat from the coronavirus could in the worst scenario see 50 million people infected in the UK and up to 500,000 deaths.

Does anyone have a view on this?  Why has Johnson decided to reveal this information now?
Most of the infections are relatively mild, and other cases asymptomatic. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Angelo222 on March 10, 2020, 10:19:35 AM
Most of the infections are relatively mild, and other cases asymptomatic.

Somehow I don't think the more than 4000 who have already died would agree with you Rob.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 10, 2020, 11:31:01 AM

Yes, it's being blown out of proportion.

More people die in traffic accidents than from this virus.

I don't have much sympathy for the Chinese, they started it by eating bats or something. More fool them IMO.

It seems the majority of fatalities are among the elderly & those in poor health.

The world is long overdue a mass extinction event if you ask me. But this isn't it. Summer is coming & I doubt the virus will survive the warmer temperatures.

But just in case,  let's all rush down to Co-Op & empty the shelves of bog roll. That'll show Corona who's boss.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 10, 2020, 11:39:35 AM
I can't say whether or not the Coronavirus threat is being "overegged". Nobody can as yet.

However, can anyone answer a question for me: why do so many people die from seasonal flu every year?  Does the vaccine not work, or are there a lot of people who choose not to have it?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Angelo222 on March 10, 2020, 12:21:14 PM
Is anyone experiencing goods shortages in their local shops already?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 10, 2020, 03:50:59 PM
 (&^&
Is anyone experiencing goods shortages in their local shops already?
yes.  On Sunday Morrisons had very little dry pasta, no loo roll, no paracetamol and absolutely no hand soaps in bottles at all of any description.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 10, 2020, 07:18:08 PM
(&^&yes.  On Sunday Morrisons had very little dry pasta, no loo roll, no paracetamol and absolutely no hand soaps in bottles at all of any description.


I have found the same today----just managed to get some loo rolls (the most expensive ones!!), no paracetamol or hand sanitiser to be seen, very little hand soap.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Admin on March 10, 2020, 08:36:32 PM
Imagine if the virus was a real killer the mess the world would be in. Greed will be the downfall of the human race.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 11, 2020, 07:49:37 AM
I can't say whether or not the Coronavirus threat is being "overegged". Nobody can as yet.

However, can anyone answer a question for me: why do so many people die from seasonal flu every year?  Does the vaccine not work, or are there a lot of people who choose not to have it?
Influenza keeps changing genetically so it is not possible to design the vaccine to match the strains going around.
In NZ only around 25% of the population gets vaccinated.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 11, 2020, 10:03:33 AM
Influenza keeps changing genetically so it is not possible to design the vaccine to match the strains going around.
In NZ only around 25% of the population gets vaccinated.

Thanks for that!  They try to design the vaccine to the strains most likely to go around here, but no idea how successful that is. I suspect quite a few over 65s don't get vaccinated.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on March 11, 2020, 08:45:39 PM
Imagine if the virus was a real killer the mess the world would be in. Greed will be the downfall of the human race.

Some one made a lot of money with the stock market crashing after its high's.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 12, 2020, 12:27:19 AM
Thanks for that!  They try to design the vaccine to the strains most likely to go around here, but no idea how successful that is. I suspect quite a few over 65s don't get vaccinated.
I haven't bothered getting the flu vaccination for 5 years now, but this year I will look into it as I don't want Covid 19 and flu season to overlap.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on March 12, 2020, 10:39:03 AM
I can't say whether or not the Coronavirus threat is being "overegged". Nobody can as yet.

However, can anyone answer a question for me: why do so many people die from seasonal flu every year?  Does the vaccine not work, or are there a lot of people who choose not to have it?
I choose not to have it because I think I'm only susceptible to one particular strain; my conclusion for that probably isn't based on sound science but I've suffered from flu only twice in my life.

Once when a child in the fifties (a seventeen year old I knew died from it) and once in the seventies.

Anecdotally work colleagues who had also taken the fifties flue (Red? or Asian? ... don't know which) had like me worked unaffected through outbreaks when people around had been dropping like flies except in the late fifties and in the more recent one.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 12, 2020, 10:48:18 AM
You only have to look at whats happened in Italy to see its not being overeggged.
 the virus is causing around 15 times more deaths than normal flu and as I undestand its also more infectious. we will know a lot more in  aweek but looking at italy can we afford to be complacent.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 12, 2020, 11:33:25 AM
You only have to look at whats happened in Italy to see its not being overeggged.
 the virus is causing around 15 times more deaths than normal flu and as I undestand its also more infectious. we will know a lot more in  aweek but looking at italy can we afford to be complacent.

Now that it's been declared a pandemic, I think Boris' meeting today will yield stronger precautions. That's my guess anyway---------.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 12, 2020, 11:35:42 AM
Thanks for that!  They try to design the vaccine to the strains most likely to go around here, but no idea how successful that is. I suspect quite a few over 65s don't get vaccinated.

Apparently, in the UK, the flu vaccine uptake for over 65s is around 70%----I've now actually bothered to look it up!

The uptake for young children is around 45%.

Thought it would be more.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on March 12, 2020, 11:42:36 AM
Apparently, in the UK, the flu vaccine uptake for over 65s is around 70%----I've now actually bothered to look it up!

The uptake for young children is around 45%.

Thought it would be more.


Here in Scotland, there are 38 confirmed cases and 2,316 negative test results.
No deaths as yet, thankfully.
I do wonder though if some folk have/had it and recovered but it has gone unrecorded.
I fluctuate between panic mode and " it will be alright " mode.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 12, 2020, 11:50:43 AM

Here in Scotland, there are 38 confirmed cases and 2,316 negative test results.
No deaths as yet, thankfully.
I do wonder though if some folk have/had it and recovered but it has gone unrecorded.
I fluctuate between panic mode and " it will be alright " mode.

I wonder exactly the same as you. Everywhere I go there are people coughing---pretty much par for the course for this time of year, but perfectly possible that some of these people unknowingly have a mild form of coronavirus.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 12, 2020, 12:06:51 PM
as I understand the death rate from normal flu is 0.1%......in italy its currently 7% for corona virus
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 12, 2020, 05:52:27 PM
What I read last night was a surprise:

1.  There is no successful vaccine against any coronavirus disease in existence.  So it would seem any vaccine is years away.  I had been hoping some sort of vaccine might nip this pandemic in the bud, but I've changed my optimism ATM.

2. If we look at the figures there are the number of coronavirus cases and the deaths but in between those two are the number of patients yet to recover,  From the large number of current cases, it seems to have the potential to be a chronic disease (possibly lung damage?).  It seems to be an expensive disease to treat in that respect.
 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Angelo222 on March 12, 2020, 09:38:51 PM
What I read last night was a surprise:

1.  There is no successful vaccine against any coronavirus disease in existence.  So it would seem any vaccine is years away.  I had been hoping some sort of vaccine might nip this pandemic in the bud, but I've changed my optimism ATM.

2. If we look at the figures there are the number of coronavirus cases and the deaths but in between those two are the number of patients yet to recover,  From the large number of current cases, it seems to have the potential to be a chronic disease (possibly lung damage?).  It seems to be an expensive disease to treat in that respect.
 

It seems that the virus was engineered in a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan Region from where it got out.  Whether this was intentional, accidental or malicious might never be known. What is known is that the Chinese hid the fact that this virus had escaped their laboratory for several months until they couldn't hide it any longer.

As you stated Rob, there is no known cure for this virus and it could take years to find one.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 12, 2020, 11:18:50 PM
It seems that the virus was engineered in a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan Region from where it got out.  Whether this was intentional, accidental or malicious might never be known. What is known is that the Chinese hid the fact that this virus had escaped their laboratory for several months until they couldn't hide it any longer.

As you stated Rob, there is no known cure for this virus and it could take years to find one.
Sounds highly improbable to me, where’s the evidence?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 13, 2020, 07:03:05 AM
Sounds highly improbable to me, where’s the evidence?
It certainly is a rumour going around.    I'm sure they knew about the condition for a long time before it was announced to the world.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 13, 2020, 07:23:22 AM
It certainly is a rumour going around.    I'm sure they knew about the condition for a long time before it was announced to the world.
Rumours are not reliable evidence.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 13, 2020, 07:43:08 AM
Rumours are not reliable evidence.
I didn't accept the rumor either.  But this is the best documentary I've seen so far https://youtu.be/TPpoJGYlW54. 

on page titled "The conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus, debunked" https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21156607/how-did-the-coronavirus-get-started-china-wuhan-lab
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 13, 2020, 02:54:13 PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8108271/Chief-scientific-adviser-wants-60-percent-entire-population-catch-coronavirus.html

That's actually quite sensible
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 13, 2020, 05:17:05 PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8108271/Chief-scientific-adviser-wants-60-percent-entire-population-catch-coronavirus.html

That's actually quite sensible
OK, how quickly does this take?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 13, 2020, 05:55:35 PM
OK, how quickly does this take?

Depends how quickly it's allowed to spread...fast enough to create herd immunity but not too fast to overwhelm the NHS
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 13, 2020, 11:43:06 PM
Depends how quickly it's allowed to spread...fast enough to create herd immunity but not too fast to overwhelm the NHS
There is an enormous number of cases that result in severe pneumonia.   So unless it is drawn out of several months NHS will be overwhelmed. 

The lingering disease recovery period will be best handled at home, but whether a person is still infectious during this recovery period isn't detailed as yet.  I have seen reports of possible reinfection.  But there is only virus detection as a way of confirming an infection, so that could be intermittent shedding rather than reinfection.
Do you use peroxide at all?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 13, 2020, 11:44:58 PM
This documentary really makes one sit up and think!  "Coronavirus: How the deadly epidemic sparked a global emergency | Four Corners"  https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 14, 2020, 07:23:30 AM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8108271/Chief-scientific-adviser-wants-60-percent-entire-population-catch-coronavirus.html

That's actually quite sensible


It sounds sensible in theory, I would agree.

Nobody really knows how bad this disease is, though, and we are being used as "guinea pigs" .  Why is it just the UK government that is taking notice of Sir Patrick Vallance, I wonder?

I suspect it won't happen, and we will be "locking down" in the near future.  Boris has to consider his votes, after all !
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 14, 2020, 07:30:59 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn


It's already starting, it seems.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on March 14, 2020, 08:47:19 AM
One thing thats a bit puzzling imo is that no one seems to look what the accelerant in Italy was for the virus to kill so many.Taken as a percentage against the deaths in China the Italy ones far out reach those in China,what is the real story?.The trouble with lock downs is how soon after do restrictions get lifted?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on March 14, 2020, 09:04:39 AM
My Asda online shop will be delivered later minus tinned fruit, paracetamol, dried pasta and toilet rolls. People must be planning on eating a lot of tinned fruit; hence the toilet rolls lol.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 14, 2020, 10:59:37 AM
One thing thats a bit puzzling imo is that no one seems to look what the accelerant in Italy was for the virus to kill so many.Taken as a percentage against the deaths in China the Italy ones far out reach those in China,what is the real story?.The trouble with lock downs is how soon after do restrictions get lifted?
I have a feeling Italy has a population with lot of older age members, who suffer from Covid 19 more than younger persons.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on March 14, 2020, 11:42:35 AM
I have a feeling Italy has a population with lot of older age members, who suffer from Covid 19 more than younger persons.

You also have to factor in Italy's previous financial problems and the strong austerity measures the people suffered as a result. These things affect basic health and weaken immune systems imo.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Admin on March 14, 2020, 12:15:26 PM
Can the UK really cope if hundreds of thousands become infected as predicted?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on March 14, 2020, 12:56:25 PM
You also have to factor in Italy's previous financial problems and the strong austerity measures the people suffered as a result. These things affect basic health and weaken immune systems imo.


Having visited Italy many times I have observed that Italians have an infinitely healthier diet than many in the UK.
The north of Italy where the virus seems to have become more prevalent, is more wealthy then the South.

Italy has the second largest elderly population in the world, which may explain the high death rate but is also indicative of a healthy lifestyle.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on March 14, 2020, 01:40:20 PM
You only have to look at whats happened in Italy to see its not being overeggged.
 the virus is causing around 15 times more deaths than normal flu and as I undestand its also more infectious. we will know a lot more in  aweek but looking at italy can we afford to be complacent.


I'm told, by a friend who has family members in Italy, one of the reasons for the numerous infections/high death toll is although they have a good Health Service, because each Italian region works independent of each other, there's no joined up thinking or acting. Another possible reason is that, unlike us, Italians tend to live in generational groups, meaning that four generations could be living under the same roof.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on March 14, 2020, 01:49:31 PM
There is an enormous number of cases that result in severe pneumonia.   So unless it is drawn out of several months NHS will be overwhelmed. 

The lingering disease recovery period will be best handled at home, but whether a person is still infectious during this recovery period isn't detailed as yet.  I have seen reports of possible reinfection.  But there is only virus detection as a way of confirming an infection, so that could be intermittent shedding rather than reinfection.
Do you use peroxide at all?

I see no reason why peroxide can't be used. If you use a high -say 6%- volume it would need to be broken down to incorporate some sort of balm and a detergent. Be warned though. Too much washing can cause the skin to break down. Broken skin is open to infection...................and the virus washing is used to prevent!!!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 14, 2020, 01:55:15 PM
Can the UK really cope if hundreds of thousands become infected as predicted?

Doesn't bear thinking about.

Most of us will be left to ride it out "in the comfort of our own homes."  Some will die there, either alone, or in front of frantic relatives/caregivers, having been unable to contact anyone for medical attention.

Well, perhaps that's a very pessimistic scenario, but I do have a vivid imagination.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on March 14, 2020, 02:01:21 PM
Doesn't bear thinking about.

Most of us will be left to ride it out "in the comfort of our own homes."  Some will die there, either alone, or in front of frantic relatives/caregivers, having been unable to contact anyone for medical attention.

Well, perhaps that's a very pessimistic scenario, but I do have a vivid imagination.


I hope NOT, but you maybe closer to the truth than you want to believe.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on March 14, 2020, 03:47:13 PM
Doesn't bear thinking about.

Most of us will be left to ride it out "in the comfort of our own homes."  Some will die there, either alone, or in front of frantic relatives/caregivers, having been unable to contact anyone for medical attention.

Well, perhaps that's a very pessimistic scenario, but I do have a vivid imagination.

I can't recall a similar level of official concern before, if that's any indication.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on March 14, 2020, 04:14:20 PM

Having visited Italy many times I have observed that Italians have an infinitely healthier diet than many in the UK.
The north of Italy where the virus seems to have become more prevalent, is more wealthy then the South.

Italy has the second largest elderly population in the world, which may explain the high death rate but is also indicative of a healthy lifestyle.

Not that healthy it seems.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on March 14, 2020, 04:16:16 PM
Can the UK really cope if hundreds of thousands become infected as predicted?

Its doubled to 20 deaths now.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on March 14, 2020, 04:39:28 PM
Not that healthy it seems.

Italy is ranked fifth in the world for life expectancy.
The UK is twenty fifth.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 14, 2020, 06:50:02 PM
Doesn't bear thinking about.

Most of us will be left to ride it out "in the comfort of our own homes."  Some will die there, either alone, or in front of frantic relatives/caregivers, having been unable to contact anyone for medical attention.

Well, perhaps that's a very pessimistic scenario, but I do have a vivid imagination.
Without treatment, death seems to come pretty quickly.  There were bodies lying in the streets of Wuhan.  Basically they looked as if they died walking to the doctors.   I've heard the sticky mucus in the lungs is the problem.  I'd think having an asthma inhaler on hand and some expectorant cough mixture is essential for the immediate first aid.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 14, 2020, 07:10:56 PM
Without treatment, death seems to come pretty quickly.  There were bodies lying in the streets of Wuhan.  Basically they looked as if they died walking to the doctors.   I've heard the sticky mucus in the lungs is the problem.  I'd think having an asthma inhaler on hand and some expectorant cough mixture is essential for the immediate first aid.

We have been talking to my husband's nephew, who is a GP in London. His practice is now not seeing any patients, but doing everything online via conference calling. Those who are very ill have to go straight to A and E. Our nephew and his colleagues have, apparently, been working flat out with the IT specialists this week, to get the software systems working properly---should have all been done ages ago, he said. 

Doesn't sound at all good.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 14, 2020, 07:51:54 PM
“Giuseppe Natalini, head of intensive care at the Fondazione Poliambulanza hospital in the northern Italian city of Brescia, one of the places hit hardest by the coronavirus, does not mince his words.

“The situation is catastrophic, unimaginable,” he said. “If someone had told me on February 21 [when the first cluster of cases was diagnosed in Italy] that today we would be in this situation, I would not have believed it.

“Two or three weeks ago I would have considered the strict measures that have been in place in Italy disproportionate and alarmist. Now, absolutely not.”
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on March 14, 2020, 08:00:17 PM
Without treatment, death seems to come pretty quickly.  There were bodies lying in the streets of Wuhan.  Basically they looked as if they died walking to the doctors.   I've heard the sticky mucus in the lungs is the problem. I'd think having an asthma inhaler on hand and some expectorant cough mixture is essential for the immediate first aid.

Only if you're an asthmatic.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 14, 2020, 10:41:08 PM
Only if you're an asthmatic.
I don't know about that.   OK don't use steroidal ones but the ones like "Ventolin" do work.  1 in 5 New Zealanders suffer from asthma type conditions so there are inhalers all over the place.  We are talking about a life or death emergency here so I wouldn't hesitate in using an inhaler, even without a prescription, if I felt my bronchi getting blocked with mucus.  It is your choice.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/pneumonia-treatments-770681
"Breathing Treatments: Your doctor may also prescribe an inhaler or a nebulizer treatment to help loosen the mucus in your lungs and help you breathe better.
 The most common medication for this is Ventolin, ProAir, or Proventil (albuterol)."
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 14, 2020, 10:49:57 PM
Boris..backed by science has got it bang on. We can't and shouldn't stop the spread of the virus but it's the elderly who need to self isolate.
It's wrong to close bars and restaurants... destroy young people's jobs
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 14, 2020, 10:53:20 PM
In NZ all visitors from overseas have to go into self-isolation for 14 days.   We have had only 6 confirmed cases and most of those have now recovered (I think, I must check).  10,000 plus people in self-isolation ATM.  No panic on the street ATM but businesses are suffering as our biggest earner is tourism.   Well, it still must be one of the safer places to visit.   
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 14, 2020, 10:55:21 PM
Boris..backed by science has got it bang on. We can't and shouldn't stop the spread of the virus but it's the elderly who need to self isolate.
It's wrong to close bars and restaurants... destroy young people's jobs
That is a rugged approach.   One that we are not adopting in NZ.

Are you not concerned about your own wellbeing?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on March 15, 2020, 06:14:45 AM
That is a rugged approach.   One that we are not adopting in NZ.

Are you not concerned about your own wellbeing?
How long is the self isolation supposed to last,this virus is an unknown entity,will it come again just when you think it's safe?.Personally I'm asthmatic so at risk,who isn't to be honest,but I'll go about my normal business,I really mix in large groups,I like to think I'm hygienic,so it's carry on regardless.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 15, 2020, 09:21:52 AM
Dr Tim Pearce seems to know what he’s on about:

7 THINGS WE MUST STOP SAYING ABOUT THE CORONA VIRUS

1. “This virus is being blown totally out of proportion. More people suffer and die from the flu and accidents and other medical issues nobody talks about.”

There are two dangerous flaws in this view.

As of today, there are 600 proven cases in the UK.   The real number is likely to be >6000 cases due to a lack of testing. What’s worse is the rate that the number is likely to increase EXTREMELY fast- in fact, it will probably double or more every week.

If it keeps spreading at the same rate, it will reach ~100 000 cases in 4 weeks, and 1.5 million in 8 weeks!   You cannot compare it to stable problems. This problem is exploding in scale at an exponential rate, not staying the same.

- The second big problem with this is that it is actually irrelevant what else kills people because this problem is just being ADDED to those other problems.   Our risk is COMPOUNDED with other risks, not EQUAL to how things were before the outbreak.

Worse still, all the old issues still have to be dealt with by a healthcare system in collapse, and many people without the virus will die due to the collapsing system. 

2. “It’s not that different to flu”

Wrong! This situation is so very different from flu for the following reasons…

-It’s a new virus, so 100% of us can catch it.
-there’s no vaccine and no chance of getting one soon.
-there’s no treatment proven to work.
- It’s spread WAY easier than most flu cases, each person passing it on to 2-3 other people instead of 1.2 due to the structure of the virus and how resilient it is.
- It kills 10 x the percentage of people of the average flu outbreak and in some places (Italy) doctors are reporting it is closer to 80x more lethal than average flu. I  suspect these numbers are a distortion, but we do not yet know for sure. 

3. “Only a low percentage of people die compared with SARS which was 10%, and we all got through that well!”

This assertion ignores the impact of the rate of spread- this illness may kill a lower percentage of people infected, but will still kill many times more people.  Why? 

The number of people getting infected is going to be MUCH higher.    1% of 7 billion people is 70 million people (!) who could die as it spreads.  Only 8000 people caught SARS… and 800 died.  We are already WAY passed this number with this outbreak and it is NOT slowing down- it’s speeding up.

4. “It’s not that lethal to the young and healthy, so we shouldn’t worry”.

I’ve seen it said as a reassuring fact that only a 0.2% chance of death in middle-aged and younger people.   This is 1 in every 500 productive people.  IF this disease becomes part of the new normal, we will ALL lose people we know in the prime of their lives.    Once again, the hidden factor is the degree of spread that is possible- if this was easily contained we would not have to worry about 0.2% of a small number, but if everyone is going to get this, this number is extremely worrying.  If it becomes widespread this is enough to make it one of the most common ways for younger people to die.

5.  “Only old people die from it, so no point worrying if you are not old”

Apart from the fact that these are our parents and grandparents who also deserve our concern, 15% of people get seriously ill and this is FAR worse than a cold for many young people.    It is way worse getting the WORST illness you have ever had right about when the system is collapsing as everyone else is ill.   

There is also a concern that it could cause permanent lung scarring in those who survive- this could cause lifelong problems.

6.  “We’re all going to get it anyway, so no point worrying.”

I have even seen doctors says this… This idea fails to appreciate the value of reducing the spike in cases of a rapidly spreading disease.  This spike will cause a collapse of the healthcare system.  In Italy, they are already having to choose between people based on their age who gets to go to ITU and who dies…  resources matter.  Delaying the spread will save lives even if you get it later.
 
7.  “As long as ‘old’ people stay out of large public gatherings it will keep them safe and we can carry on...”

This idea really scares me because it shows a misunderstanding of how to handle the threat- it smells like a political statement designed to reassure without taking any economic risks.   

Our number one enemy is the R0- the RATE of contagion.  It does not matter what age the crowd is- the crowd all go home to families and grandparents and the damage is still done.  Any contagion is a problem as it introduces the virus into new communities which then spread from person to person.

So what should we do?

I believe all efforts need to go on reducing the rate of contagion- it’s really our only real defence. If we could get the R0 to less than 1 we would beat it- this is unlikely, but getting it close to 1 will hugely ease the burden on healthcare and save lives.

We should:
-Keep our distance from each other, no handshakes or hugs.
-Cancel large events
-The government should proactively close schools in communities where ANYONE gets sick in that community.  This is well known to be one of THE most effective ways of reducing community spread.
-Wash hands and surfaces each time they are touched by different people.
-Try not to touch your face.
-Wash your phone- they are filthy.
-Take vitamin D and Zinc to reduce risk and improve defences.
-Avoid crowded places.
-Do not soldier on if you get sick- stay at home even if it’s mild.
-Stop smoking- this is possibly a major factor in the death rate.
-Do not spread reassuring conspiracy theories or attack the media.   There are only two things you need to know.

The percentage of people who get seriously ill (15%) or die (1-3%) and the rate of transmission R0 (currently about 2-3 people catching it from each infected person).

You can ignore the media when you know these numbers are low.

...Until then every individual can make a difference by taking it seriously. 

I think people need to know- please share if you agree.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 15, 2020, 11:06:56 AM
How long is the self isolation supposed to last,this virus is an unknown entity,will it come again just when you think it's safe?.Personally I'm asthmatic so at risk,who isn't to be honest,but I'll go about my normal business,I really mix in large groups,I like to think I'm hygienic,so it's carry on regardless.
We are a bit lucky in NZ as we have no land borders.   Everyone arriving will go into self-isolation (monitored).  It seems to be working except for a cruise ship in Akaroa with 2 suspected cases on board.

There won't be as many cases as fewer people will be arriving here.  If you turn up your first two weeks will be in quarantine.   At least you will survive, so I imagine we might get tourists coming here to protect themselves in a disease-free country.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 16, 2020, 01:38:33 AM
We are a bit lucky in NZ as we have no land borders.   Everyone arriving will go into self-isolation (monitored).  It seems to be working except for a cruise ship in Akaroa with 2 suspected cases on board.

There won't be as many cases as fewer people will be arriving here.  If you turn up your first two weeks will be in quarantine.   At least you will survive, so I imagine we might get tourists coming here to protect themselves in a disease-free country.
People interviewed at the airport today.  They seemed reluctant to comply with the 14-day self-quarantine.   I wonder what happens now.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 16, 2020, 03:36:48 AM

So much hype. Only 35 deaths so far in the UK.  Mostly elderly.
Not that age should matter, but Imagine the increased hysteria if children were dying?
Society values kids lives more than that of old grannies.
People fighting in the supermarket ailes over toilet roll, stock piling soap, sporting events cancelled, the global economy tanking.
Over what? A virus less deadly than crossing the road.
It's all just a load of old bollocks.
The outbreak of the T virus in Raccoon City however, now that's something we should all be concerned about.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 16, 2020, 07:54:09 AM
So much hype. Only 35 deaths so far in the UK.  Mostly elderly.
Not that age should matter, but Imagine the increased hysteria if children were dying?
Society values kids lives more than that of old grannies.
People fighting in the supermarket ailes over toilet roll, stock piling soap, sporting events cancelled, the global economy tanking.
Over what? A virus less deadly than crossing the road.
It's all just a load of old bollocks.
The outbreak of the T virus in Raccoon City however, now that's something we should all be concerned about.
There was a point in time when the Black Death had “only” killed 35 people in this country.  I expect there were grumpy gits moaning about the hysteria and the old bollocks then as well.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on March 16, 2020, 11:47:46 AM
I received this in my inbox this morning and I presume other supermarkets will be acting accordingly;  certainly I have not noticed any food shortages in my local Tesco - Asda - Morrisons - Aldi - Lidle - or Iceland stores.

The message is to get on with it as the supermarkets appear to be doing ~ to take sensible precautions ~ not to panic and I think the government should be getting that message over loud and clear.

We are in a very serious situation, potentially the worst we have ever lived through, so we just have to hope we survive it as we have done with previous pandemics and prepare for the next one no matter how far in the future that may be and to do that successfully I don't think the role model we should follow is austerity.
It doesn't work for the common good.



Message from Sainsbury's Chief Executive Mike Coupe

Dear ...  ...

You will have seen that, due to the ongoing uncertainty around the full impact of Coronavirus, supermarkets have been much busier than usual and customers are choosing to stock up.

I wanted to personally reassure you that we have more food and other essential items coming to us from manufacturers and into our warehouses and distribution centres. If we all shop just for the food that we and our families need, there will be enough for everyone.

I also wanted to let you know that at Sainsbury's, we are working really hard to ensure this remains the case. Over the past two weeks we have:

-

Ordered more stock of essential items from our suppliers

-

Put more capacity into our warehouses and

-

Set limits on a small number of items, including some cleaning products, soap and pain relief. This is a precautionary measure - if everyone shops normally, there will be enough for everyone.

There are gaps on shelves because of increased demand, but we have new stock arriving regularly and we're doing our best to keep shelves stocked. Our store colleagues are working tirelessly and doing the best job they can.

Which brings me onto a request. Please think before you buy and only buy what you and your family need. If we all do this then we can make sure we have enough for everyone. And please help elderly and vulnerable friends, family and neighbours with their shopping if you can.

I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you for your continued support and to thank our colleagues who are all working incredibly hard to ensure we can continue to serve our customers well.

Best wishes

Mike
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 16, 2020, 11:51:00 AM
There was a point in time when the Black Death had “only” killed 35 people in this country.  I expect there were grumpy gits moaning about the hysteria and the old bollocks then as well.


I wonder.   

They were probably terrified, and thought it a punishment from God.   They would have known that most of them would die.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on March 16, 2020, 12:19:35 PM

I wonder.   

They were probably terrified, and thought it a punishment from God.   They would have known that most of them would die.

The small village of Eyam self quarantined back in 1665 https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/eyam-plague-village I remember watching a documentary about it many years ago and finding it quite heartbreaking.  But what foresight!! and care for their neighbours in neighbouring villages.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 16, 2020, 01:42:52 PM
The small village of Eyam self quarantined back in 1665 https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/eyam-plague-village I remember watching a documentary about it many years ago and finding it quite heartbreaking.  But what foresight!! and care for their neighbours in neighbouring villages.

Yes, someone wrote a play based on this, and it was televised many years ago----around 1974, I think! Amazing story of brave people. Unlike us, they must have realized that they and their children would probably die.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Myster on March 16, 2020, 02:07:14 PM
You can actually travel back in time on YouTube too.  Incredible!... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j89pdCZnNTY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j89pdCZnNTY)
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 16, 2020, 02:41:24 PM
You can actually travel back in time on YouTube too.  Incredible!... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j89pdCZnNTY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j89pdCZnNTY)

Something for me to watch later!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 16, 2020, 06:12:01 PM

Are people seriously comparing this virus to the black death?

Lets keep things in perspective shall we, as I understand it the mortality rate of covid 19 amongst children is currently a whopping great zero.

I would feel safer were my hypothetical children to contract the virus than if they were to go on spring break with Kate & Gerry or take a dip in Barrymore's pool.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 16, 2020, 06:26:46 PM
Are people seriously comparing this virus to the black death?

Lets keep things in perspective shall we, as I understand it the mortality rate of covid 19 amongst children is currently a whopping great zero.

I would feel safer were my hypothetical children to contract the virus than if they were to go on spring break with Kate & Gerry or take a dip in Barrymore's pool.
How very droll.  I take it that being a troll you don’t actually have parents or grandparents? 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 16, 2020, 10:23:39 PM

Having visited Italy many times I have observed that Italians have an infinitely healthier diet than many in the UK.
The north of Italy where the virus seems to have become more prevalent, is more wealthy then the South.

Italy has the second largest elderly population in the world, which may explain the high death rate but is also indicative of a healthy lifestyle.

I agree-factor in the outdoor socialising and family gatherings they have. I do believe it is those who have underlying health problems added to this particular strain is the main cause of death.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: John on March 16, 2020, 11:56:20 PM
Are people seriously comparing this virus to the black death?

Lets keep things in perspective shall we, as I understand it the mortality rate of covid 19 amongst children is currently a whopping great zero.

I would feel safer were my hypothetical children to contract the virus than if they were to go on spring break with Kate & Gerry or take a dip in Barrymore's pool.

Wait and see what happens when it mutates which it will do in time.  Just like the common flu virus, it will come back year after year for ever.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 17, 2020, 12:35:09 AM
Wait and see what happens when it mutates which it will do in time.  Just like the common flu virus, it will come back year after year forever.
A mutation could just be to a milder form too.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 17, 2020, 07:22:55 AM
So much hype. Only 35 deaths so far in the UK.  Mostly elderly.
Not that age should matter, but Imagine the increased hysteria if children were dying?
Society values kids lives more than that of old grannies.
People fighting in the supermarket ailes over toilet roll, stock piling soap, sporting events cancelled, the global economy tanking.
Over what? A virus less deadly than crossing the road.
It's all just a load of old bollocks.
The outbreak of the T virus in Raccoon City however, now that's something we should all be concerned about.
just for you
https://youtu.be/Hks6Nq7g6P4
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 17, 2020, 09:02:14 AM
How very droll.  I take it that being a troll you don’t actually have parents or grandparents?

My grandparents are completely safe from the virus because they are already dead. My parents however are both in their sixties so yes they are at risk. But they don't leave their house much anyway & in the county where they live there are currently 0 cases of the virus. So no. I'm not that worried.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 17, 2020, 09:12:38 AM
My grandparents are completely safe from the virus because they are already dead. My parents however are both in their sixties so yes they are at risk. But they don't leave their house much anyway & in the county where they live there are currently 0 cases of the virus. So no. I'm not that worried.
Let’s hope neither of them needs urgent medical attention for something else in the next few months, like a fall or a heart attack because if things go the way they are predicted to then the NHS may struggle to treat them promptly and effectively.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 17, 2020, 11:01:05 AM
Let’s hope neither of them needs urgent medical attention for something else in the next few months, like a fall or a heart attack because if things go the way they are predicted to then the NHS may struggle to treat them promptly and effectively.
That is a worry in itself.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 17, 2020, 04:11:08 PM
That is a worry in itself.

It is. that is why China built hospitals within days to cope with the estimated demand! We will probably recall all military medics and build make shift quarantine areas.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 19, 2020, 04:41:32 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/moral-instincts-coronavirus/608305/

This article raises some great points.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on March 19, 2020, 07:42:18 PM
Wishing everyone well in this most worrying time.
All fine at the moment with us.
Complying with the rules about social distancing.
It all becomes a little more difficult with family.
Just not sure of what to do.
Schools are now closed, exams cancelled.
I do not envy anyone who has to make decisions to forward the ongoing combatting of this virus.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 04:06:45 PM
Somehow I don't think the more than 4000 who have already died would agree with you Rob.

Catching up.
For once, I agree with you, Angelo. Don't faint. ;) Numbers will have again risen today, but we're now well over the 10,000 CF (case fatality) figure, i.e., those who have died who had tested positive. In many countries, including the UK, the test rate is low, and families of people with underlying issues who then died, but weren't tested, may have to wait some time to find out whether their loved ones died of the virus, or the other condition, or a combination of both.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 04:18:32 PM
Some one made a lot of money with the stock market crashing after its high's.

That's emerging now in the US. I'd never heard of this senator, and there are 4-5 others.

Anyone familiar with Fox News host/opinion shows should sit down. Warning: even Tucker Carlson condemns this Republican senator of alleged inside knowledge. Caveats apply: it COULD just be a coincidence and / or someone who's fallen from favour.

https://twitter.com/politvidchannel/status/1240956938302578689
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 04:59:50 PM
I know I'll get whacked by everyone, but preferably with a cotton wool ball, please. ;)

And no xenophobic remarks.

Italy: hit in a big way within a few days.

Military vehicles evacuating bodies from overwhelmed morgues / cemeteries in the middle of the night.
https://twitter.com/RoBartels/status/1240592028213358593

Leaked footage of an ICU at night appears to have been taken down (probably too distressful).
This is from an emergency ward, which I presume was authorised:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1241022197948440576

The UK has had longer to get organised.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 05:35:29 PM
I can't think of anything I've agreed with Piers about, aside from gun control, until now:

Piers on Tim Martin and pubs
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1240946194177810432

Read the comments underneath.

Oh, and this. Scroll down to the video:
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/18/british-tourists-benidorm-ignore-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-12415650/

Meanwhile,
Dr. Jennifer Cassidy
@OxfordDiplomat
Spent the day in Hospital. Taken by ambulance with all symptoms. Chest X-Ray revealed large chest infection, alongside all #COVID19 symptoms. But as I wasn’t critical, despite huge difficulty breathing, a test refused. I love NHS staff but this govt needs to get a grip and test!
https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1240776914693951496

Most of mainland Europe is in various phases of lockdown. The UK is a few days behind the curve - be prepared to have to work from home, no bingo or pub nights, no visiting friends or family... Essential services (food, chemist, etc., will be fine).

Don't panic, just take it seriously.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 20, 2020, 05:59:04 PM
I can't think of anything I've agreed with Piers about, aside from gun control, until now:

Piers on Tim Martin and pubs
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1240946194177810432

Read the comments underneath.

Oh, and this. Scroll down to the video:
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/18/british-tourists-benidorm-ignore-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-12415650/

Meanwhile,
Dr. Jennifer Cassidy
@OxfordDiplomat
Spent the day in Hospital. Taken by ambulance with all symptoms. Chest X-Ray revealed large chest infection, alongside all #COVID19 symptoms. But as I wasn’t critical, despite huge difficulty breathing, a test refused. I love NHS staff but this govt needs to get a grip and test!
https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1240776914693951496

Most of mainland Europe is in various phases of lockdown. The UK is a few days behind the curve - be prepared to have to work from home, no bingo or pub nights, no visiting friends or family... Essential services (food, chemist, etc., will be fine).

Don't panic, just take it seriously.

We are going to die, or we aren't.  I am okay with this, much as I would rather stagger on for a bit yet.

But, but, what would you all do without me?

You don't have to answer that.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 06:25:37 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/moral-instincts-coronavirus/608305/

This article raises some great points.

Yes, it does. Thanks for that, Rob.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 20, 2020, 07:49:02 PM
Catching up.
For once, I agree with you, Angelo. Don't faint. ;) Numbers will have again risen today, but we're now well over the 10,000 CF (case fatality) figure, i.e., those who have died who had tested positive. In many countries, including the UK, the test rate is low, and families of people with underlying issues who then died, but weren't tested, may have to wait some time to find out whether their loved ones died of the virus, or the other condition, or a combination of both.
The figures I see are that 70% get over it quickly (recover).
2-3% die.
OK, so what is happening to the other 27% of cases.  Are they chronic cases?  Are there cases that never recover?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 20, 2020, 07:54:02 PM
The figures I see are that 70% get over it quickly (recover).
2-3% die.
OK, so what is happening to the other 27% of cases.  Are they chronic cases?  Are there cases that never recover?

That might be interesting.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 08:02:49 PM
The figures I see are that 70% get over it quickly (recover).
2-3% die.
OK, so what is happening to the other 27% of cases.  Are they chronic cases?  Are there cases that never recover?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 20, 2020, 08:04:16 PM
The figures I see are that 70% get over it quickly (recover).
2-3% die.
OK, so what is happening to the other 27% of cases.  Are they chronic cases?  Are there cases that never recover?

from what I understand the other 27% get over it...but not quickly
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 08:18:49 PM
from what I understand the other 27% get over it...but not quickly

Not that simple.

It can depend on which country, with which resources,, when preventive measures were taken (or enforced), when early detection, contact-tracing, testing, quarantine / hospitalisation took place of patients and contacts, available beds, PPE (personal protection equipment), staff, the list goes on. Plus, the vulnerability of patients, but also of their contacts.


Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 08:26:42 PM
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 20, 2020, 08:34:31 PM

Seems I can't even make a sensible suggestion like quarantining only the elderly without receiving a warning.

It's a good job I didn't post my next suggestion for averting the impending recession.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_4J4uor3JE
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 08:42:03 PM
A problem is that there is a lot of politics behind the scenes (IMO).

Some were downplaying the whole thing for their own reasons; others didn't have the resources (including tests) and were trying to buy time.... long list.

If there is vast testing, and efficient contact-tracing at an early stage, more people are likely to be confirmed positive out of the large sample, than if you test far fewer.

No tests, no sickness, no problem.

If tests are only done on those who are very seriously sick, there is likely to be a higher fatality rate than amongst the whole range.

There are also demographics and cultural factors.

Plus the fact that it's new, and it's a mad scramble to figure out how the hell to manage the medical situation as well as the economic impact. Plus egos, and elections...

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 08:45:28 PM
A Yes Minister clip...

https://twitter.com/ZoeJardiniere/status/1238146050684264449
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 20, 2020, 09:02:17 PM
A few graphs / graphics, as I think of them...


Acceleration in some countries:
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

China is flattening out, while the UK is further back in time, but accelerating.

How different preventive measures (or none) affect the peak; the red horizontal line is the level of ICU beds. Hint: critical cases need to stay within the capacity of hospitals to care for them.

https://twitter.com/rjbarfield1/status/1239818229532495872

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 21, 2020, 06:39:07 AM
as I posted on another thread:

"What I have been trying is using a 0.5% Hydrogen Peroxide solution intranasally at least 2 pumps per nostril.   There hasn't been any burning or ill effects from this strength.

0.5% is a 1/6 strength of the commonly retailed 3% solution.  I have tried hourly sprays or 4 sprays before and after going out into the community.

I can wash my hands and using this I can wash my nasal passages.   Best of luck."

Does anyone have any comments to make about this?   My son tried a 1% spray and found it slightly burning.  So please don't use full strength (3%) or if you do be careful.   
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 21, 2020, 06:56:50 AM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Thanks, Carana.  Even in Italy only 778 cases per million population.   I'd like to know what percentage of the population has antibodies to the virus.  It seems odd that only about 1/1000th of the population get the disease.

There was some talk of needing a 60% of the population to have antibodies to get sufficient herd immunity.
Does this reflect the level of subclinical cases?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 21, 2020, 10:16:36 AM

We in France are now reduced to one person per car.  This doesn't bother me as I am not going anywhere.

However, my son and my neighbour who both use what is effectively My Car are in discussions over who is going to The Food Bank for me.  I don't care about that either so long as one of them goes.

I don't kiss either of them these days.

The Food Bank is now By Appointment.  Very sensible, I thought.  I instinctively knew that they wouldn't abandon us.  And I am very impressed by their courage.

I did have to have a rather convoluted discussion with the Local Mairie by telephone in French.  My appointment is for 16.45 and I never have been able to get my head around 16 in French.  The rest of the numbers are easy.  It's just that one.  My brain freezes.
In the end she said 16.45 in English.  This was some feat as her English is virtually non existent.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 21, 2020, 11:02:46 AM
as I posted on another thread:

"What I have been trying is using a 0.5% Hydrogen Peroxide solution intranasally at least 2 pumps per nostril.   There hasn't been any burning or ill effects from this strength.

0.5% is a 1/6 strength of the commonly retailed 3% solution.  I have tried hourly sprays or 4 sprays before and after going out into the community.

I can wash my hands and using this I can wash my nasal passages.   Best of luck."

Does anyone have any comments to make about this?   My son tried a 1% spray and found it slightly burning.  So please don't use full strength (3%) or if you do be careful.

I haven't read anything reliable about nasal sprays. And burning your nose or anything else doesn't sound like a great idea.

Hydrogen peroxide doesn't act against viruses, AFAIK, but the WHO formula for hand sanitizer (intended for dispensaries in the middle of nowhere), does contain some, but to combat any spores present at the time of making the mixture.

The WHO formula:
https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf

Apparently, washing your hands with lathering soap for 20 seconds is more effective (something to do with breaking down the lipid molecules of the virus). Gel is for when you're out and can't wash your hands.

It enters the body via the eyes, nose and mouth. The issue is that we all touch our faces every few seconds (whether we realise it or not) and - aside from someone sneezing or coughing in your immediate proximity, it's our hands that contaminate the eyes, nose and mouth.

It can survive on hard surfaces for a while (opinions vary), hence the need to develop stronger hand cleaning reflexes (opening doors, taps, handrails, cash, cash machines, phones, laptops... everything you can think of).
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 21, 2020, 11:12:14 AM
Thanks, Carana.  Even in Italy only 778 cases per million population.   I'd like to know what percentage of the population has antibodies to the virus.  It seems odd that only about 1/1000th of the population get the disease.

There was some talk of needing a 60% of the population to have antibodies to get sufficient herd immunity.
Does this reflect the level of subclinical cases?

This herd immunity concept is apparently normally in the context of mass vaccination. The "take it on the chin" (and see who survives) idea is something the WHO described as "concerning". (Translate diplobabble into more colourful language, if you prefer.)

Hard to know how many cases there are that are either asymptomatic or mild, as it has escalated so fast and few countries have done large-scale tests so far.

The countries that appear to have got it under control quickly were those who immediately isolated and tested the initial cases, and who traced everyone they'd been in contact with, had them tested and isolated if necessary. That's impossible to do once you're swamped with cases, with inadequate resources.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 21, 2020, 11:19:07 AM
Thanks, Carana.  Even in Italy only 778 cases per million population.   I'd like to know what percentage of the population has antibodies to the virus.  It seems odd that only about 1/1000th of the population get the disease.

There was some talk of needing a 60% of the population to have antibodies to get sufficient herd immunity.
Does this reflect the level of subclinical cases?

Every country has different levels of resources, though. The north of Italy has good hospitals (I'm told), but even they were suddenly swamped. A large proportion of initial fatalities were the elderly (immune systems naturally diminish with age, apparently) and / or those with one or more underlying health issues. From what I'm reading, they're now getting more younger patients as well.

Very few children seem to have become seriously ill / died, but can pass it on to everyone around them.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 21, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
Something else I read, but haven't been able to verify, is that while younger people (without major other health issues) may have a greater likelihood of coming out the other end of serious cases, there's a question over long-term lung damage. Probably too early to come to any conclusions.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 21, 2020, 05:24:33 PM
Seems I can't even make a sensible suggestion like quarantining only the elderly without receiving a warning.

It's a good job I didn't post my next suggestion for averting the impending recession.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_4J4uor3JE
Did it involve Nazis and gas chambers?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 21, 2020, 05:56:38 PM
Did it involve Nazis and gas chambers?

No. It involved rounding up the old & unwell & quaranting them elsewhere so that those of us under 40 can go about our daily lives as normal.
But you raise a good point, gas chambers would be one sure way of eradicating the virus & preventing economic collapse.
Raise income tax, lower vat & start pumping gas into Lidl.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 21, 2020, 07:21:12 PM
No. It involved rounding up the old & unwell & quaranting them elsewhere so that those of us under 40 can go about our daily lives as normal.
But you raise a good point, gas chambers would be one sure way of eradicating the virus & preventing economic collapse.
Raise income tax, lower vat & start pumping gas into Lidl.
And to think I get a warning for calling you a troll.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: misty on March 22, 2020, 03:14:01 AM
Check out the 2011 film Contagion on Amazon Prime if you think the Covid 19 virus is being over-egged. It's seriously disturbing, given the similarity to the current crisis.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 22, 2020, 08:03:24 AM
Not that simple.

It can depend on which country, with which resources,, when preventive measures were taken (or enforced), when early detection, contact-tracing, testing, quarantine / hospitalisation took place of patients and contacts, available beds, PPE (personal protection equipment), staff, the list goes on. Plus, the vulnerability of patients, but also of their contacts.

You haven't answered the question as to what happens to the other 27% per cent.
Whist some die and some get over it quickly for the rest it's a debilitating and uncomfortable disease...but they recover
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 22, 2020, 09:52:42 AM
You haven't answered the question as to what happens to the other 27% per cent.
Whist some die and some get over it quickly for the rest it's a debilitating and uncomfortable disease...but they recover
Or maybe they remain chronically ill.

From the CT scans the disease reminded me of enzootic pneumonia in lambs with the severe consolidation of the lobes of the lungs.   In my experience, there was a definite weight reduction in those cases of lambs that were affected by the pneumonia.  Older animals had got over the pneumonia but there was always evidence of scarring on the lungs and possible pleuritic adhesions.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 22, 2020, 10:11:29 AM
Or maybe they remain chronically ill.

I havent seen that anywhere and think we would if that was the the case. I think what this staement refers to is the fact that for some this virus is a relatively mild disease that doesnt cause real problems whilst for some it really afffects them and may require hospitalisation and that is the problem. at the moment the NHS is coping but what happens when those who need hospitalisation find theres no beds or staff or ventilators to treat them...thats when deaths will soar. Thats why isolation is important for evryone,,,young or old.... to limit and slow the spread.

In the Uk Denatal surgeries have been ordered to close apart from seeing real emergencies...all routine dentistry is cancelled...thats quite a severe step which shows how serious this virus could be
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 22, 2020, 10:43:58 AM
Check out the 2011 film Contagion on Amazon Prime if you think the Covid 19 virus is being over-egged. It's seriously disturbing, given the similarity to the current crisis.

I've started watching Pandemic (on Netflix), but I think it's also available elsewhere... It's a documentary series, not fiction.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 22, 2020, 10:49:07 AM
I havent seen that anywhere and think we would if that was the the case. I think what this staement refers to is the fact that for some this virus is a relatively mild disease that doesnt cause real problems whilst for some it really afffects them and may require hospitalisation and that is the problem. at the moment the NHS is coping but what happens when those who need hospitalisation find theres no beds or staff or ventilators to treat them...thats when deaths will soar. Thats why isolation is important for evryone,,,young or old.... to limit and slow the spread.

In the Uk Denatal surgeries have been ordered to close apart from seeing real emergencies...all routine dentistry is cancelled...thats quite a severe step which shows how serious this virus could be

My dentist called me on a Sunday morning from home to cancel my appointment. Having saliva sprayed in your face all day puts them (and patients) at enormous risk. Even with a visor and a basic mask.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 22, 2020, 11:00:28 AM
My dentist called me on a Sunday morning from home to cancel my appointment. Having saliva sprayed in your face all day puts them (and patients) at enormous risk. Even with a visor and a basic mask.
I’ve been waiting months for my appointment tomorrow, I hope mine isn’t cancelled as it’s getting quite urgent now.  I don’t intend to spray him with saliva, honest!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 22, 2020, 11:04:08 AM
You haven't answered the question as to what happens to the other 27% per cent.
Whist some die and some get over it quickly for the rest it's a debilitating and uncomfortable disease...but they recover

I gave a link to Rob, which I find to be a partial explanation.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Some in the serious / critical make it, others don't. Those who don't make it pass over to the "death" category. In the absence of sufficient beds, in some countries they're having to make difficult decisions: if you have a finite quantity of ICU beds / respirators / specially trained medical staff) to concentrate on those most likely to survive.

In some countries, I've noticed that the "recovered / discharged" category can be low. AFAIK, that doesn't necessarily mean a higher fatality rate - it could be that they didn't require respiratory assistance and were sent home to self-isolate until they got better... or fell of the radar. In theory, I would think that to be deemed officially "recovered" would require a further test... but if there aren't enough tests / lab capacity, that may be secondary for the moment.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 22, 2020, 11:13:33 AM
I’ve been waiting months for my appointment tomorrow, I hope mine isn’t cancelled as it’s getting quite urgent now.  I don’t intend to spray him with saliva, honest!

Best check tomorrow. Not sure the UK has thought of the risks of dentists yet, with all this "take it on the chin" stuff. You presumably don't want a dentist to contaminate you, either.

Take care.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 22, 2020, 11:25:10 AM
I’ve been waiting months for my appointment tomorrow, I hope mine isn’t cancelled as it’s getting quite urgent now.  I don’t intend to spray him with saliva, honest!

If it's anything apart from a genuine emergency...severe toothache...the orders  are it should be cancelled.

I will be laying staff off but fortunately the government will cover 80% of their wage
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 22, 2020, 11:28:27 AM
Best check tomorrow. Not sure the UK has thought of the risks of dentists yet, with all this "take it on the chin" stuff. You presumably don't want a dentist to contaminate you, either.

Take care.

Scotland decided last week..UK govt has-been slow. The order is quite clear...all routine dentistry cancelled.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 22, 2020, 11:31:40 AM
Best check tomorrow. Not sure the UK has thought of the risks of dentists yet, with all this "take it on the chin" stuff. You presumably don't want a dentist to contaminate you, either.

Take care.

One major risk is the production of an aerosol by the high speed handpiece drill...this leaves the air contaminated..
Then there simply the numbers an opportunity for cross contamination..avoid other people as much asposs seems to be the message
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 22, 2020, 11:47:35 AM
One major risk is the production of an aerosol by the high speed handpiece drill...this leaves the air contaminated..
Then there simply the numbers an opportunity for cross contamination..avoid other people as much asposs seems to be the message

Agree. Though not easy for anyone with a raging toothache or even a broken arm, let alone anything else requiring hospitalisation that is non-COVID19-related.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 22, 2020, 11:48:59 AM
I have had a very long and convoluted discussion with my 53 year old son about this.

I am in lock down in France because of my age.  And thank God for that.  But both of us have decided that there is nothing much to be done.

I might be dead in six weeks time, or not.  He is less likely to be so.  I don't think I care all that much.  But I am one tough old cookie.  So far less likely to die.

Think about "Hope" because this is what it is all about.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 22, 2020, 12:50:22 PM
Scotland decided last week..UK govt has-been slow. The order is quite clear...all routine dentistry cancelled.
Damn.  Dunno why they sent me a reminder about it on Friday then, must have forgotten to switch off the automated reminders service.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 22, 2020, 12:51:28 PM
Agree. Though not easy for anyone with a raging toothache or even a broken arm, let alone anything else requiring hospitalisation that is non-COVID19-related.

Raging toothache would count as an emergency and be treated
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 22, 2020, 02:19:58 PM
I saw the following post on FB

I’m a consultant anaesthetist working in Frimley Park Hospital and this week all anaesthetists are being re-roled as intensive care doctors. We will be tasked with putting the sickest patients under anaesthetic and onto ventilators/life support machines. Each patient will require 10 days+ on a ventilator then may need a temporary tracheostomy to get them off the ventilator.

The intensive care unit is already full of COVID-19 patients on ventilators (12) with more requiring ventilation every day. My hospital usually has 4-10 patients on ventilators and is planning and EXPECTING 80 patients to require ventilation.

It seems the public health message is not getting through. Let me be clear. A lot of people are going to die. They will mainly be 70 years plus but be in no doubt, 30-40 year olds will die too.

Pubs have been busy, offices open, social events happening, kids parties etc. It all needs to stop. Infected people shed virus and it must be everywhere by now. It is your social responsibility to engage in social distancing. Actions NOW can prevent further disease transmission, ICU admissions and deaths in 10-20 days.

Two of my anaesthetic/ICU colleagues in other hospitals are off work due to being infected (doing ok). As health care workers, we are now EXPECTING to catch it despite PPE. This virus has been transmitted around the globe unchecked and will not stop until it has no where to go - social distancing/isolation Or patient death.

Here ends my public health message.

On a more personal level, my son turned three years old last week and is six weeks into a three year chemotherapy program for lymphoma. This virus is a big threat to his life and as I am going to be exposed this week doing my job, I can no longer live at home.

I have had to make the difficult choice: to do my job and save lives of people I don’t know, or to be with my son whilst he battles cancer. Alfie hopefully will survive his cancer and chemo, but many people will die from flu. My heart is broken making this decision, but I choose to save the lives of strangers and leave him in the care of my beautiful wife and family.

Later this week I’ll be moving into a motor home and will not be able to take any further part in his care for the next 6 months.

Bottom line. SOCIALLY ISOLATE or people die in two weeks.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 22, 2020, 02:28:07 PM
Or maybe they remain chronically ill.

From the CT scans the disease reminded me of enzootic pneumonia in lambs with the severe consolidation of the lobes of the lungs.   In my experience, there was a definite weight reduction in those cases of lambs that were affected by the pneumonia.  Older animals had got over the pneumonia but there was always evidence of scarring on the lungs and possible pleuritic adhesions.

I doubt that you are wrong about this.  Should we be eating this meat?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 22, 2020, 03:24:53 PM
I saw the following post on FB

I’m a consultant anaesthetist working in Frimley Park Hospital and this week all anaesthetists are being re-roled as intensive care doctors. We will be tasked with putting the sickest patients under anaesthetic and onto ventilators/life support machines. Each patient will require 10 days+ on a ventilator then may need a temporary tracheostomy to get them off the ventilator.

The intensive care unit is already full of COVID-19 patients on ventilators (12) with more requiring ventilation every day. My hospital usually has 4-10 patients on ventilators and is planning and EXPECTING 80 patients to require ventilation.

It seems the public health message is not getting through. Let me be clear. A lot of people are going to die. They will mainly be 70 years plus but be in no doubt, 30-40 year olds will die too.

Pubs have been busy, offices open, social events happening, kids parties etc. It all needs to stop. Infected people shed virus and it must be everywhere by now. It is your social responsibility to engage in social distancing. Actions NOW can prevent further disease transmission, ICU admissions and deaths in 10-20 days.

Two of my anaesthetic/ICU colleagues in other hospitals are off work due to being infected (doing ok). As health care workers, we are now EXPECTING to catch it despite PPE. This virus has been transmitted around the globe unchecked and will not stop until it has no where to go - social distancing/isolation Or patient death.

Here ends my public health message.

On a more personal level, my son turned three years old last week and is six weeks into a three year chemotherapy program for lymphoma. This virus is a big threat to his life and as I am going to be exposed this week doing my job, I can no longer live at home.

I have had to make the difficult choice: to do my job and save lives of people I don’t know, or to be with my son whilst he battles cancer. Alfie hopefully will survive his cancer and chemo, but many people will die from flu. My heart is broken making this decision, but I choose to save the lives of strangers and leave him in the care of my beautiful wife and family.

Later this week I’ll be moving into a motor home and will not be able to take any further part in his care for the next 6 months.

Bottom line. SOCIALLY ISOLATE or people die in two weeks.

Heart-breaking decision to make.

We can now keep in touch via so many more means via Skype or Whatsapp or the plain old phones. Twenty-something years ago, feeling a virtual presence would have been even harder.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 22, 2020, 04:02:09 PM
If a mod is online, could you please authorise my little anxiety-reduction thread, please? TIA.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 22, 2020, 05:01:57 PM
I doubt that you are wrong about this.  Should we be eating this meat?
They don't use the lungs.   Rest of the carcase is fine. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 23, 2020, 09:20:51 AM
How the virus spread in Korea.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on March 23, 2020, 04:40:48 PM
How the virus spread in Korea.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html

I won't have a chance to study this in depth till later tonight.  But a quick glance would seem to indicate that in Korea there was sufficient data to enable tracing the progress of the virus, probably as a result of what they had learned from outbreaks of SARS etc.

I don't think we could replicate that here - in fact I don't think we have - and I think initial adherence to the 'herd' theory will prove to be the most disastrous course of action that could have been taken.

We have been long overdue a pandemic of some sort yet already we have shortages of protective gear for our front line troops the NHS operatives.  We have a shortage of necessary life saving equipment for our population and the country is in virtual shutdown.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 23, 2020, 06:12:29 PM
How the virus spread in Korea.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html


... and hre we are in the UK still allowing people to come in. Crazy. London is the epicentre of the UK. that shuold have been locked down ASAP.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 23, 2020, 09:07:58 PM

3 weeks lock down.
Probably more than that.

I'd just like to thank the Chinese & over 60's for ruining 2020 for everyone else.
Great job.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 24, 2020, 05:58:04 AM
I won't have a chance to study this in depth till later tonight.  But a quick glance would seem to indicate that in Korea there was sufficient data to enable tracing the progress of the virus, probably as a result of what they had learned from outbreaks of SARS etc.

I don't think we could replicate that here - in fact I don't think we have - and I think initial adherence to the 'herd' theory will prove to be the most disastrous course of action that could have been taken.

We have been long overdue a pandemic of some sort yet already we have shortages of protective gear for our front line troops the NHS operatives.  We have a shortage of necessary life saving equipment for our population and the country is in virtual shutdown.

Intense contact-tracking right at the beginning (reminds me of a Holmes2-type of approach) almost nipped it in the bud. From memory, via other reading, they were missing one "person of interest", who then went to a massive church service (over 1000 people), and that was it. It spiralled out of control.

Some Asian countries had gained quite a bit of experience via having had to deal with previous epidemeics (e.g., SARS) which gave them a head start in how to deal with it, and the public were primed to heed social distancing measures.

A documentary on how the Chinese have lived through it so far. Obviously, being cooped up at home hasn't been fun, but (to my admittedly untrained eye) they seem to have it under control now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 24, 2020, 06:38:23 AM
Interesting article on the UK's "herd immunity" saga. https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/17/the-herd-instinct-and-herd-immunity-the-etiology-of-a-bad-idea/

I know that since the publication date, the Netherlands have also been entertaining the idea, and I haven't checked whether they've back-tracked on that yet or not.

The concept, promoted by BoJo's advisors, appears to have been based on standard viral pneumonia - which the woefully under-resourced NHS could have just about coped with (albeit still with a relatively high risk of fatalities).

AFAIK, the article is correct to say that the idea that "the science has changed" isn't true: it hasn't, they just didn't analyse the data that was being made available by the WHO, in particular from China and Italy. I have the Imperial College report somewhere, if I can find it again.

BoJo's blasé attitude until very recently hasn't helped. His "take it on the chin" comments, plus stating elsewhere on TV that he'd visited a hospital (which he had) in which he believed there were a few COVID-19 patients (there weren't) and that he was fine to carry on shaking hands with everyone, has been irresponsible, IMO.

I won't even get onto the topic of Trump for the moment...


Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 24, 2020, 06:41:51 AM
A Twitter feed from the UK Department of Health and Social Care is providing regular updates:

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 24, 2020, 06:57:26 AM
The FT has kindly decided to take its COVID-19 coverage out of the paywall.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1242048518908502016

Some interesting reading and graphics.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on March 24, 2020, 07:16:12 AM
3 weeks lock down.
Probably more than that.

I'd just like to thank the Chinese & over 60's for ruining 2020 for everyone else.
Great job.
Its gonna extend far beyond,there's going to be a financial reckoning the like never seen before.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 24, 2020, 07:28:37 AM
To be fair, every government has to face the dilemma of how to balance public safety versus the economy.

Literally shutting down the economy via a lockdown was unthinkable to many for quite some time, but now the consequence of dithering is likely to have an even greater impact on both.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 24, 2020, 07:46:12 AM
To be fair, every government has to face the dilemma of how to balance public safety versus the economy.

Literally shutting down the economy via a lockdown was unthinkable to many for quite some time, but now the consequence of dithering is likely to have an even greater impact on both.
We will be in a 4-week lock-down starting tomorrow night.   I get the feeling there will be some resistance to it.  On the news there were people flouting the lock-down in the UK.   Maybe the same will happen here. 

The scientists were talking about eliminating the virus from the country.  I just worry that will mean we are still going to be liable to another outbreak.  Hurry up with a vaccine.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 24, 2020, 08:03:18 AM
We will be in a 4-week lock-down starting tomorrow night.   I get the feeling there will be some resistance to it.  On the news there were people flouting the lock-down in the UK.   Maybe the same will happen here. 

The scientists were talking about eliminating the virus from the country.  I just worry that will mean we are still going to be liable to another outbreak.  Hurry up with a vaccine.

That's not the way I see it. The only way to beat the virus is to build immunity...that means some need to catch it but not at a rate that the NHS can't cope with. If we simply lock ourselves away then it will be their when we come out. I do agree with the lockdown...to slow the spread but it can't be stopped.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on March 24, 2020, 08:11:14 AM
Intense contact-tracking right at the beginning (reminds me of a Holmes2-type of approach) almost nipped it in the bud. From memory, via other reading, they were missing one "person of interest", who then went to a massive church service (over 1000 people), and that was it. It spiralled out of control.

Some Asian countries had gained quite a bit of experience via having had to deal with previous epidemeics (e.g., SARS) which gave them a head start in how to deal with it, and the public were primed to heed social distancing measures.

A documentary on how the Chinese have lived through it so far. Obviously, being cooped up at home hasn't been fun, but (to my admittedly untrained eye) they seem to have it under control now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU

Absolutely astounding the number of infections for which that one person who slipped through the net was responsible.  Only one infected person was responsible for thousands of positive contacts showing how viciously contagious this virus is.

It can also be controlled if managed properly.
China is now in the position of having the capability of sending aid to Europe including test kits as well as experts.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/20/c_138898996.htm

Russia is also providing aid ... https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/russia-sends-aid-to-italy-to-fight-virus-outbreak/1775227 and Cuba is also in the position of being able to send assistance ... https://mronline.org/2020/03/23/cuban-doctors-travel-to-italy-to-help-fight-covid-19/

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is sending aid to Iran ... https://www.msf.org/msf-responds-coronavirus-covid-19-iran so at least there is an awareness that we are all in it together and Britain is usually one of the first to respond in an international emergency.

Not this time round though.
I am angry that when the number of people infected by just one as per the Korean example posted by you, Carana hits us there will not be sufficient respirators for us all and we will die unnecessarily as a result.  I am angry there are not enough testing kits even to test the NHS medics who will be dealing with us.
We don't even have enough hand sanitiser ... https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11094509/coronavirus-buy-hand-gel-sanitiser-where/ even for medics ... https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11094509/coronavirus-buy-hand-gel-sanitiser-where/

I think government have been caught on the back foot and just have not been prepared for this as they should have been; it isn't only down to 'panic buying' that we do not have the basics to deal with a pandemic.
Now we just have to sit back and and wait to see who comes through it all and what kind of society we will be left with.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 24, 2020, 08:28:27 AM
I've seen Twitter feeds from medics and nurses in Italy, Spain, France and elsewhere, pleading, often in tears, the UK to lockdown before they end up in the same overwhelming situation.

IMO, BoJo's advisers hadn't kept up to speed, and he was still busy drumming up enthusiasm for all the "opportunities" that Brexit would offer.

Trump didn't want to know, either: no tests = no cases = no known deaths = no problem. His main concern was to avoid spooking the stock market prior to the election.

Re ventilators, I've seen very recent tweets from several medical facilities in various countries using a Y-valve to connect several patients to the same ventilator. I'm not sure how efficient that will prove to be, but it's worth a try while they scramble to make more available.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 24, 2020, 08:42:05 AM
I find it somewhat unlikely (according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries ) that the UK currently only has 20 patients in ICU. I don't think that the UK hospitals have had the time to update that category. I am also sceptical about official figures from some other countries (including Russia).

My heart also goes out to everyone in the poorest countries, those caught up in wars and all those stuck in IDCs or refugee camps.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 24, 2020, 12:55:50 PM
That's not the way I see it. The only way to beat the virus is to build immunity...that means some need to catch it but not at a rate that the NHS can't cope with. If we simply lock ourselves away then it will be their when we come out. I do agree with the lockdown...to slow the spread but it can't be stopped.
Is there a figure that will achieve both immunity and not overwhelm the NHS?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 24, 2020, 01:05:40 PM
I think countries will in the future pay more attention to maintaining a manufacturing base.  They will be less reliant on China for their medical supplies.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 24, 2020, 01:08:36 PM
Drastic times call for drastic measures.

I think the government needs to seriously consider a cull of people to reduce the strain on the NHS.
You don't want to take out your doctors and nurses at the same time.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 24, 2020, 01:53:04 PM
That's not the way I see it. The only way to beat the virus is to build immunity...that means some need to catch it but not at a rate that the NHS can't cope with. If we simply lock ourselves away then it will be their when we come out. I do agree with the lockdown...to slow the spread but it can't be stopped.

On paper I agree with herd immunity . However, as you say the NHS couldn't cope with the rate of the virus spreading and it is the most vulnerable at risk.

 That would be way too many deaths. And it does smack a little of the Hitler and the survival of the fittest with his murderous campaign in mental hospitals and removing citizens with disabilities during his reign of terror.


I do believe lock down should have began earlier and London should have had a no leave zone. And supermarkets shuld have  been more strict about people emptying shelves!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 24, 2020, 03:32:50 PM
On paper I agree with herd immunity . However, as you say the NHS couldn't cope with the rate of the virus spreading and it is the most vulnerable at risk.

 That would be way too many deaths. And it does smack a little of the Hitler and the survival of the fittest with his murderous campaign in mental hospitals and removing citizens with disabilities during his reign of terror.


I do believe lock down should have began earlier and London should have had a no leave zone. And supermarkets shuld have  been more strict about people emptying shelves!

we can slow down the spread and build herd immunity slower. if we dont build immunity then more will die. we cannot simply isolate and hope it goes away
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 24, 2020, 04:10:14 PM
On paper I agree with herd immunity . However, as you say the NHS couldn't cope with the rate of the virus spreading and it is the most vulnerable at risk.

 That would be way too many deaths. And it does smack a little of the Hitler and the survival of the fittest with his murderous campaign in mental hospitals and removing citizens with disabilities during his reign of terror.


I do believe lock down should have began earlier and London should have had a no leave zone. And supermarkets shuld have  been more strict about people emptying shelves!
Please can we not have more lazy comparisons to the Nazis?   The Nazis actively wanted to get rid of the disabled, the Tories have no such ideology. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 24, 2020, 04:37:09 PM
Please can we not have more lazy comparisons to the Nazis?   The Nazis actively wanted to get rid of the disabled, the Tories have no such ideology.



I wasn't comparing  anyone to the Nazis or accusing anyone of being one- Read the bloody post properly!

My response is very clear  having herd immunity would mean difficult decisions would have to be made as far as the weak and vulnerable were concerned.

 It would be akin to the Nazis what they did  allbe it under different circumstances"
Doctors would have to chose who lives who dies if it came to the push. Although I do agree herd immunity on paper would be a good option.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 24, 2020, 04:47:01 PM


I wasn't comparing  anyone to the Nazis or accusing anyone of being one- Read the bloody post properly!

My response is very clear  having herd immunity would mean difficult decisions would have to be made as far as the weak and vulnerable were concerned.

 It would be akin to the Nazis what they did  allbe it under different circumstances"
Doctors would have to chose who lives who dies if it came to the push. Although I do agree herd immunity on paper would be a good option.

You dont seem to understand the herd immunity principle....it is in fact what is happening. Boris is allowing limited contact which will allow the disease to spread hopefully at  a rate the nhs can  deal with . This will slowly build herd immunity....some will die and there is nothing that can be done. The idea is to keep deaths to a minimum.....nothing to do with the Nazis who did not promote survival of the fittest as you seem to think.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 24, 2020, 04:57:11 PM
You dont seem to understand the herd immunity principle....it is in fact what is happening. Boris is allowing limited contact which will allow the disease to spread hopefully at  a rate the nhs can  deal with . This will slowly build herd immunity....some will die and there is nothing that can be done. The idea is to keep deaths to a minimum.....nothing to do with the Nazis who did not promote survival of the fittest as you seem to think.

I understand more than you.

He is not allowing herd immunity by allowing people to mix- we are in lock down.

 It was asserted that too many people would die and the NHS would be overwhelmed. This was a risk too much. a change of mind after the seriousness of the speed of infection became better known!

The Nazis did promote the Ayran race as being strong fit Germans. You being ignorant to the fact doesn't make it untrue.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 24, 2020, 05:31:59 PM


I wasn't comparing  anyone to the Nazis or accusing anyone of being one- Read the bloody post properly!

My response is very clear  having herd immunity would mean difficult decisions would have to be made as far as the weak and vulnerable were concerned.

 It would be akin to the Nazis what they did  allbe it under different circumstances"
Doctors would have to chose who lives who dies if it came to the push. Although I do agree herd immunity on paper would be a good option.
If you’re not comparing anyone with the Nazis then why bloody well mention them in the first place?  It’s completely unhelpful and unnecessary IMO.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 24, 2020, 05:36:21 PM
I understand more than you.

He is not allowing herd immunity by allowing people to mix- we are in lock down.

 It was asserted that too many people would die and the NHS would be overwhelmed. This was a risk too much. a change of mind after the seriousness of the speed of infection became better known!

The Nazis did promote the Ayran race as being strong fit Germans. You being ignorant to the fact doesn't make it untrue.

first the Nazis promoted the Aryan race..note the spelling...not survival of the fittest. They didnt murder old sick Aryans....

the govt is allowing the build up of herd immunity...at a limited rate...we are not in total lockdown...the supermarkets are full of poeple who are mixing.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 24, 2020, 08:34:55 PM
first the Nazis promoted the Aryan race..note the spelling...not survival of the fittest. They didnt murder old sick Aryans....

the govt is allowing the build up of herd immunity...at a limited rate...we are not in total lockdown...the supermarkets are full of poeple who are mixing.


Never mind the spelling- check the abominable grammar or lack of it from all your posts.  Primary 5's can do better!

So no point in trying point to the wood chip in one eye of someone without removing that huge tree from yours!

Your ignorance is well documented. you can't change history. Hitler DID SLAUGHTER Germans who were deemed 'unfit' i.e mentally retarded or physically impaired. It wasn't just Jews he didn't want in his perfect Aryan society. in his German father land- even though he wasn't even a bloody German!  he was Austrian.

Now then to finish this off you probably didn't know that the swastika was a peace symbol stolen from India!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jALT8BAFCdY
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 24, 2020, 08:41:04 PM
If you’re not comparing anyone with the Nazis then why bloody well mention them in the first place?  It’s completely unhelpful and unnecessary IMO.

I mentioned them because of similarities of doctors having to chose who lives who dies as the weakest in our society are elderly and sick and more likely to need hospitalization. In the even of herd immunity  program and the NHS being overwhelmed.  I said  it could come to that.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 24, 2020, 09:00:11 PM
I mentioned them because of similarities of doctors having to chose who lives who dies as the weakest in our society are elderly and sick and more likely to need hospitalization. In the even of herd immunity  program and the NHS being overwhelmed.  I said  it could come to that.
But the Nazis never had to choose whose lives to save in dire life and death circumstances, they actively chose to terminate lives, so no comparison imo.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 24, 2020, 09:04:38 PM
But the Nazis never had to choose whose lives to save in dire life and death circumstances, they actively chose to terminate lives, so no comparison imo.

Whoosh right over your head.

The NHS doctors  MAY have to make a decision who lives or dies.(Not an enviable task I assure you) The Nazi Doctors did the same- selection process?

hello...
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 24, 2020, 09:06:13 PM
Whoosh right over your head.

The NHS doctors  MAY have to make a decision who lives or dies.(Not an enviable task I assure you) The Nazi Doctors did the same- selection process?

hello...
Why the need for rudeness?  I could say exactly the same for you.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on March 24, 2020, 09:15:51 PM
Why the need for rudeness?  I could say exactly the same for you.


You bemoan about rudeness  you? of all people? OK.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 24, 2020, 10:43:22 PM

You bemoan about rudeness  you? of all people? OK.
Well I certainly wasn’t rude to you today, it seems you wish to perpetuate the rudeness.  OK.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 25, 2020, 03:27:06 AM
Please desist with this exchange.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on March 25, 2020, 06:38:40 AM

Never mind the spelling- check the abominable grammar or lack of it from all your posts.  Primary 5's can do better!

So no point in trying point to the wood chip in one eye of someone without removing that huge tree from yours!

Your ignorance is well documented. you can't change history. Hitler DID SLAUGHTER Germans who were deemed 'unfit' i.e mentally retarded or physically impaired. It wasn't just Jews he didn't want in his perfect Aryan society. in his German father land- even though he wasn't even a bloody German!  he was Austrian.

Now then to finish this off you probably didn't know that the swastika was a peace symbol stolen from India!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jALT8BAFCdY
It's best not to assume you have superior knowledge...you don't.
I've been to India and seen the swastika on temples...I think many people are aware of it's origin

I think the only one displaying ignorance as you put it is yourself

I didn't say Hitler didn't kill Germans..the Jews were Germans...I said he didn't kill old sick Aryans
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 25, 2020, 07:17:05 AM
time to get back to the topic please.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on March 25, 2020, 04:19:10 PM
I'm wondering if this virus was with us before we were officially told it was. I certainly had a dry cough in Nov/Dec. and I know several others who had the same. My friend's son and granddaughter went skiing in Switzerland about 6 weeks ago. Both were taken ill with a serious, flu-like illness, one of them tested for pneumonia, both were confined to bed. Thankfully, both have recovered.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 25, 2020, 04:40:42 PM
I'm wondering if this virus was with us before we were officially told it was. I certainly had a dry cough in Nov/Dec. and I know several others who had the same. My friend's son and granddaughter went skiing in Switzerland about 6 weeks ago. Both were taken ill with a serious, flu-like illness, one of them tested for pneumonia, both were confined to bed. Thankfully, both have recovered.
Yeah, both me and my son had a dry cough at the beginning of the year which left me short of breath.  No fever though.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on March 25, 2020, 05:30:04 PM
Yeah, both me and my son had a dry cough at the beginning of the year which left me short of breath.  No fever though.


I'm not certain what is meant by "a fever" which probably means I've never experienced one!! I can't say for certain whether my temperature was raised, but in the past, I've had chest infections and on one occasion, bronchitis and I don't recall having a temperature then, but I suspect I may have.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 25, 2020, 07:19:48 PM

I'm not certain what is meant by "a fever" which probably means I've never experienced one!! I can't say for certain whether my temperature was raised, but in the past, I've had chest infections and on one occasion, bronchitis and I don't recall having a temperature then, but I suspect I may have.

More common as a US term, but it means a (raised) temperature.

After all, everything has a temperature, from the dark side of the moon to the sun.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on March 25, 2020, 09:30:35 PM
More common as a US term, but it means a (raised) temperature.

After all, everything has a temperature, from the dark side of the moon to the sun.


Thank-you for the clarification.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 26, 2020, 06:12:27 AM

Thank-you for the clarification.
Raised temperature or fever. 
There are cases where there is no fever.  (maybe they missed the fact that the person had the fever earlier).  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzUwEYX5gaE
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 26, 2020, 08:52:46 PM

With the UK death toll rising to 578, anyone else get the feeling this lock down will go on for longer than 3 weeks?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52056534

Expect the panic buying to continue.

Luckily I've avoided panic buying by purchasing several weeks worth of food in one visit to the shops.

I haven't recycled my newspapers recently, I'm hoping I don't have to use them.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 26, 2020, 09:32:07 PM
With the UK death toll rising to 578, anyone else get the feeling this lock down will go on for longer than 3 weeks?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52056534

Expect the panic buying to continue.

Luckily I've avoided panic buying by purchasing several weeks worth of food in one visit to the shops.

I haven't recycled my newspapers recently, I'm hoping I don't have to use them.

I'm thinking it will go on longer than three weeks.

I also suspect that the cashier in the supermarket fibbed to me when she told me that I'll get loo roll if I'm there early in the morning:  I suspect there hasn't been any for a few weeks now, although I understand some people have managed to get some from smaller shops.

Has anyone seen loo roll in big supermarkets lately, as a matter of interest?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 26, 2020, 09:52:55 PM
I'm thinking it will go on longer than three weeks.

I also suspect that the cashier in the supermarket fibbed to me when she told me that I'll get loo roll if I'm there early in the morning:  I suspect there hasn't been any for a few weeks now, although I understand some people have managed to get some from smaller shops.

Has anyone seen loo roll in big supermarkets lately, as a matter of interest?

As it happens, I got the last pack of rolls off the shelf at a big Tesco last sunday around noon.
It was the most expensive brand but my friend had none at all so I bought it for her.
I'm pretty sure the supermarkets & small shops are re-stocking every day/ night but that they just aren't staying on the shelves for long.
Where I live the small shops shelves are empty of rolls every time I have looked.
Even kitchen roll is hard to find.
I have ended up placing an order with an office supplies company online that sells the kind of huge rolls you get in public loos & such. I figure I will end up using it all in my lifetime or I can share some among friends & family if they need it.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: misty on March 26, 2020, 10:22:43 PM
I'm thinking it will go on longer than three weeks.

I also suspect that the cashier in the supermarket fibbed to me when she told me that I'll get loo roll if I'm there early in the morning:  I suspect there hasn't been any for a few weeks now, although I understand some people have managed to get some from smaller shops.

Has anyone seen loo roll in big supermarkets lately, as a matter of interest?

Our local Asda has had loo roll this week but we did have to go early morning. I don't know what the situation is later in the day. Kitchen roll, Dettol spray & bleach are still proving difficult to source.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on March 26, 2020, 10:30:33 PM

......& hand sanitiser, forget trying to find that.  I'm using washing up liquid.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: John on March 26, 2020, 10:42:13 PM
......& hand sanitiser, forget trying to find that.  I'm using washing up liquid.

I was lucky with the hand sanitiser as I usually keep plenty here on the farm anyway. Soap and warm water is just as effective though if used properly for about 20 seconds. I think regular hand washing is crucial if out and about.

Wallets, bank cards, coins, plastic money, car keys, mobile phones, tablets and computer keyboards are all things worth special attention as are taps, door handles, stair bannisters and TV remote controls.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 27, 2020, 08:31:39 PM
I was lucky with the hand sanitiser as I usually keep plenty here on the farm anyway. Soap and warm water is just as effective though if used properly for about 20 seconds. I think regular hand washing is crucial if out and about.

Wallets, bank cards, coins, plastic money, car keys, mobile phones, tablets and computer keyboards are all things worth special attention as are taps, door handles, stair bannisters and TV remote controls.

Yes, and the steering wheel.

Plus whatever surface you dump your shopping on.

Some are using soapy water to wash down food packages and even produce. I haven't bothered with that so far, but it can't hurt, I suppose.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 27, 2020, 09:50:35 PM
Yes, and the steering wheel.

Plus whatever surface you dump your shopping on.

Some are using soapy water to wash down food packages and even produce. I haven't bothered with that so far, but it can't hurt, I suppose.

And the gear stick, handbrake,  and the car door handles !!   I haven't bothered with the food packages though, I'm neurotic enough about germs as it is.

I wonder, after all this is over, whether people will have become hygiene conscious to the extent that the rates of colds, norovirus, etc will go down in the winter.

Actually managed to find loo rolls in Wilko this morning!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 27, 2020, 11:50:39 PM

 (snip)
I wonder, after all this is over, whether people will have become hygiene conscious to the extent that the rates of colds, norovirus, etc will go down in the winter.


Quite possibly, until we get complacent again...
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 27, 2020, 11:52:16 PM
Some interesting graphs from FT
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 28, 2020, 12:38:52 AM
With the UK death toll rising to 578, anyone else get the feeling this lock down will go on for longer than 3 weeks?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52056534

Expect the panic buying to continue.

Luckily I've avoided panic buying by purchasing several weeks worth of food in one visit to the shops.

I haven't recycled my newspapers recently, I'm hoping I don't have to use them.

The longer some people don't take it seriously, the longer it is is likely to carry on.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Myster on March 28, 2020, 08:39:16 AM
Is Trump passing Corona on to his unsuspecting advisors?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSGOpbyR2E (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSGOpbyR2E)
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 28, 2020, 09:38:09 AM
Is Trump passing Corona on to his unsuspecting advisors?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSGOpbyR2E (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSGOpbyR2E)


I read that he'd tested negative--------or is that fake news?

Nothing Trump says or does would surprise me.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on March 28, 2020, 03:55:53 PM
Graphic on how social distancing / duration / early or late start affected the number of deaths in various US cities during the 1918 pandemic.

Cities that ordered social distancing measures later and for shorter periods tended to have spikes in deaths and higher overall death rates.

Cities that ordered social distancing measures sooner and for longer periods usually slowed infections and lowered overall death rates.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 28, 2020, 04:28:25 PM
Graphic on how social distancing / duration / early or late start affected the number of deaths in various US cities during the 1918 pandemic.

Cities that ordered social distancing measures later and for shorter periods tended to have spikes in deaths and higher overall death rates.

Cities that ordered social distancing measures sooner and for longer periods usually slowed infections and lowered overall death rates.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/


I have taken to reading all sorts of stuff re the 1918 Spanish Flu too.  Let's hope it doesn't unnerve us too much!

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 28, 2020, 06:11:50 PM
Is Trump passing Corona on to his unsuspecting advisors?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSGOpbyR2E (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYSGOpbyR2E)

What a very silly thing to say.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 28, 2020, 06:14:51 PM

I have taken to reading all sorts of stuff re the 1918 Spanish Flu too.  Let's hope it doesn't unnerve us too much!

Try reading about the Village of Eyham and The Plague.  That was really not funny.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Myster on March 28, 2020, 06:26:53 PM
What a very silly thing to say.
Back to you!  If Trump has hushed up that he might have the virus, wouldn't you be wary of receiving one of those markers he's just handled?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 28, 2020, 06:29:50 PM
Back to you!  If Trump has hushed up that he might have the virus, wouldn't you be wary of receiving one of those markers he's just handled?

Would he do that, do you think?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Myster on March 28, 2020, 06:39:12 PM
Would he do that, do you think?
Boris didn't know he had the virus until a few days ago and no doubt either passed it on to or received it from other members of COBRA.

But if Trump is capable of faking a suntan, then...
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on March 28, 2020, 06:40:52 PM
Back to you!  If Trump has hushed up that he might have the virus, wouldn't you be wary of receiving one of those markers he's just handled?
Wash your hands with soap.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on March 28, 2020, 06:41:38 PM
Boris didn't know he had the virus until a few days ago and no doubt either passed it on to or received it from other members of COBRA.

But if Trump is capable of faking a suntan, then...

Have you got The Plague?  It looks like it by your Avatar.  Poor you.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Myster on March 28, 2020, 06:49:11 PM
Wash your hands with soap.
I use more than just soap... diluted Dettol every time I have a doorstep delivery and have to sign one of their electronic gizmos, and even after handling the daily post.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Myster on March 28, 2020, 06:54:36 PM
Have you got The Plague?  It looks like it by your Avatar.  Poor you.
Like many, I've been feeling a bit peaky blinders lately with the odd cough and sore throat, but test kits are not  available online yet, so who knows. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on March 28, 2020, 07:13:43 PM
Try reading about the Village of Eyham and The Plague.  That was really not funny.

I watched the film adapted from the play "The Roses of Eyam" many years ago. Don't remember who wrote the play. Did discover that the village is partly a National Trust site now, and hope to visit one day.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 28, 2020, 07:14:45 PM
Back to you!  If Trump has hushed up that he might have the virus, wouldn't you be wary of receiving one of those markers he's just handled?
I thought they were cigars!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on March 31, 2020, 03:07:32 PM
Meanwhile in Edinburgh

“An Edinburgh consultant working at The Western General has told the BBC, the hospital is "calm, controlled and ready" to tackle the coronavirus.

According to Professor Simon Maxwell, who is also a lecturer at Edinburgh University, the hospital is quieter than ever before, with plenty of free beds available.

Despite 208 confirmed cases of potentially deadly COVID-19 in the Lothians, the consultant told the BBC, the conditions in the Western General are far from "apocalyptic."
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/edinburghs-western-general-hospital-quiet-18011648
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 01, 2020, 03:39:47 AM
That's the case in a few other countries at the moment as well. Some hospitals overwhelmed and others with some spare capacity. The logistics of transferring critically ill patients isn't easy or quick, though.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 01, 2020, 12:36:21 PM


I'm a little sceptical that any amount of standing on a doorstep clapping every Thursday is going to kill the virus.
A bit like how running around a park dressed in pink hasn't cured cancer.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 01, 2020, 03:49:35 PM

I'm a little sceptical that any amount of standing on a doorstep clapping every Thursday is going to kill the virus.
A bit like how running around a park dressed in pink hasn't cured cancer.
Do you really think anyone believes clapping the NHS is going to kill the virus??  What strange ideas you have.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 01, 2020, 03:59:44 PM

I'm a little sceptical that any amount of standing on a doorstep clapping every Thursday is going to kill the virus.
A bit like how running around a park dressed in pink hasn't cured cancer.

perhaps you dont think the healthworkers deserve any support and appreciation when they are putting themselves and their families at risk whilst others can stay at home on 80% pay
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: misty on April 02, 2020, 12:01:32 AM
https://www.portugalresident.com/brussels-to-choose-telecoms-operator-in-portugal-to-spy-on-people-in-lockdown/

Brussels to choose telecoms operator in Portugal to spy on people in lockdown
By Natasha Donn -1st April 2020
 Facebook Twitter
The European Commission has announced that it is choosing a telecoms operator in each Member State to ‘gather citizens data anonymously through the tracking of mobile phones during the pandemic’.

The idea, says State news agency Lusa, is to “analyse mobility at a time of confinement”.

The word ‘spying’ is never used – but it is certainly the definition of ‘gathering data anonymously’.

In the hurly-burly of news reports on the daily developments of Covid-19, this appears to be one sound bite in the new Portuguese reality that somehow avoided the nation’s headlines.

SIC television news gave it space on its website late yesterday afternoon – citing answers posed by Lusa to ‘an official source’. But there appears to have been nothing actually broadcast on air.

Lusa’s information ran along the lines that “the idea is to analyse patterns of mobility, including the impact of measures of confinement on the intensity of contacts, and therefore the risks of propagation”.

According to the community source, “this type of general tracking of EU citizens would be an important and proportionate contribution for monitoring the spread of the virus, while also allowing for the evaluation of measures implemented to contain the pandemic” in each Member State.

Lusa puts the news into context. It comes a week after a video conference with telecoms bosses including Vodafone, Orange and Telefónica, called by European Commissioner Thierry Breton.

In this conference, Breton “asked companies to share anonymous metadata from users to model and predict the spread of the virus”.

The data would go to the ‘Common Centre of Investigation’ and “there would be no sharing with third parties”.

The source assures that the “data would only be kept as long as the pandemic remains active, being erased shortly thereafter”, Lusa continues. “The same source guaranteed full respect for GDPR (general data protection regulation) as well as ePrivacy legislation”.

GDPR allows for ‘exceptions’ like this to its general rules, the source explained, “in situations of public interest in the area of public health”.

Says Lusa, “it’s a flexibility that the European Commission wants to take advantage of”.

“There is no date yet for this project to move forwards, but Brussels wants it to happen as soon as possible”. The time-line is also dependent on the operators themselves.

Mobile phone tracking in terms of Covid-19 has already been introduced in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and even Singapore.

Writing only a week ago, the Independent said: “Thailand has rolled out a mobile app that anyone arriving at an airport must download to help monitor where they have been in the event that they test positive for the virus. Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, this week also launched a mobile app to help track cases, and it could be used to enforce quarantines”.

The Taiwanese system, says the paper, is so sophisticated that it alerts police and local officials if those in home-quarantine move away from their address or turn off their phones.

The international press did pick up on the enormous significance of these changes. Business Insider for example cited a industry source as warning that the world “could slide into permanently increased surveillance”.

Said the source – who has compiled an index of ramped-up security measures throughout the world – “without adequate tracking there is a danger that these new, often highly invasive measures will become the norm. Although some may appear entirely legitimate many pose a risk to citizens’ rights to privacy and freedom of expression”.

natasha.donn@algarveresident.com


I hope the UK won't be part of this. Anyone else beginning to smell more than one rat?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on April 02, 2020, 12:56:34 AM
https://www.portugalresident.com/brussels-to-choose-telecoms-operator-in-portugal-to-spy-on-people-in-lockdown/

Brussels to choose telecoms operator in Portugal to spy on people in lockdown
By Natasha Donn -1st April 2020
 Facebook Twitter
The European Commission has announced that it is choosing a telecoms operator in each Member State to ‘gather citizens data anonymously through the tracking of mobile phones during the pandemic’.

The idea, says State news agency Lusa, is to “analyse mobility at a time of confinement”.

The word ‘spying’ is never used – but it is certainly the definition of ‘gathering data anonymously’.

In the hurly-burly of news reports on the daily developments of Covid-19, this appears to be one sound bite in the new Portuguese reality that somehow avoided the nation’s headlines.

SIC television news gave it space on its website late yesterday afternoon – citing answers posed by Lusa to ‘an official source’. But there appears to have been nothing actually broadcast on air.

Lusa’s information ran along the lines that “the idea is to analyse patterns of mobility, including the impact of measures of confinement on the intensity of contacts, and therefore the risks of propagation”.

According to the community source, “this type of general tracking of EU citizens would be an important and proportionate contribution for monitoring the spread of the virus, while also allowing for the evaluation of measures implemented to contain the pandemic” in each Member State.

Lusa puts the news into context. It comes a week after a video conference with telecoms bosses including Vodafone, Orange and Telefónica, called by European Commissioner Thierry Breton.

In this conference, Breton “asked companies to share anonymous metadata from users to model and predict the spread of the virus”.

The data would go to the ‘Common Centre of Investigation’ and “there would be no sharing with third parties”.

The source assures that the “data would only be kept as long as the pandemic remains active, being erased shortly thereafter”, Lusa continues. “The same source guaranteed full respect for GDPR (general data protection regulation) as well as ePrivacy legislation”.

GDPR allows for ‘exceptions’ like this to its general rules, the source explained, “in situations of public interest in the area of public health”.

Says Lusa, “it’s a flexibility that the European Commission wants to take advantage of”.

“There is no date yet for this project to move forwards, but Brussels wants it to happen as soon as possible”. The time-line is also dependent on the operators themselves.

Mobile phone tracking in terms of Covid-19 has already been introduced in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and even Singapore.

Writing only a week ago, the Independent said: “Thailand has rolled out a mobile app that anyone arriving at an airport must download to help monitor where they have been in the event that they test positive for the virus. Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, this week also launched a mobile app to help track cases, and it could be used to enforce quarantines”.

The Taiwanese system, says the paper, is so sophisticated that it alerts police and local officials if those in home-quarantine move away from their address or turn off their phones.

The international press did pick up on the enormous significance of these changes. Business Insider for example cited a industry source as warning that the world “could slide into permanently increased surveillance”.

Said the source – who has compiled an index of ramped-up security measures throughout the world – “without adequate tracking there is a danger that these new, often highly invasive measures will become the norm. Although some may appear entirely legitimate many pose a risk to citizens’ rights to privacy and freedom of expression”.

natasha.donn@algarveresident.com


I hope the UK won't be part of this. Anyone else beginning to smell more than one rat?

A few people who I have never thought of as conspiracy theorists have voiced concerns about many aspects of the current emergency.
The thing which caused most disquiet was the proposal to suspend jury trials in Scotland; that was a bridge too far for many.  https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/01/scotland-drops-plans-to-suspend-jury-trials-during-coronavirus-crisis
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 04, 2020, 04:09:05 AM
Coronavirus: Trump to defy 'voluntary' advice for Americans to wear masks
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52161529

Makes me think of Carly Simon's "You're So Vain".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQZmCJUSC6g

Well, the first bit of the song... defo not the romantic nostalgia part. lol

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Myster on April 04, 2020, 06:06:30 AM
Physicians have advised him that an iffy spray tan is sufficient defence...

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-invokes-defense-production-act-to-mass-produce-gallons-of-spray-tan (https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-invokes-defense-production-act-to-mass-produce-gallons-of-spray-tan)
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 04, 2020, 08:05:47 PM
What are the statistical risks for those without underlying health conditions?  I think pretty low?

My understanding is that without the lock down measures the NHS would be unable to cope with those who succumb as a result of existing health conditions and/or the elderly ie 70 plus.

A few younger people, seemingly healthy, have lost their lives to the virus but in absence of a post mortem it may be that the victims had undiagnosed existing health conditions.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 04, 2020, 08:14:34 PM
perhaps you dont think the healthworkers deserve any support and appreciation when they are putting themselves and their families at risk whilst others can stay at home on 80% pay

Perhaps you're right.  Perhaps I don't care about doctors & nurses & such like.
Not having had to go to hospital recently, their work doesn't affect me in the slightest.
Besides, it was their career choice after all, which they made themselves, no one forced them to do it.
They knew full well they'd be treating the sick & injured & would be at increased risk of catching aids or cancer.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on April 04, 2020, 08:15:34 PM
What are the statistical risks for those without underlying health conditions?  I think pretty low?

My understanding is that without the lock down measures the NHS would be unable to cope with those who succumb as a result of existing health conditions and/or the elderly ie 70 plus.

A few younger people, seemingly healthy, have lost their lives to the virus but in absence of a post mortem it may be that the victims had undiagnosed existing health conditions.
Nothing that fake tan wouldn't fix.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 05, 2020, 09:05:49 AM
Nothing that fake tan wouldn't fix.

There's nothing fake about me!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on April 05, 2020, 09:34:01 AM
Physicians have advised him that an iffy spray tan is sufficient defence...

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-invokes-defense-production-act-to-mass-produce-gallons-of-spray-tan (https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-invokes-defense-production-act-to-mass-produce-gallons-of-spray-tan)


I'm waiting to see the roots of the bleached thatch as it grows out............to say nothing of the DA'd back as it grows.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 05, 2020, 03:15:08 PM
Perhaps you're right.  Perhaps I don't care about doctors & nurses & such like.
Not having had to go to hospital recently, their work doesn't affect me in the slightest.
Besides, it was their career choice after all, which they made themselves, no one forced them to do it.
They knew full well they'd be treating the sick & injured & would be at increased risk of catching aids or cancer.

Does that mean that you wouldn't seek hospital treatment if you did get a severe case of it? If so, it might spare a ventilator for someone else.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 05, 2020, 03:31:02 PM
Does that mean that you wouldn't seek hospital treatment if you did get a severe case of it? If so, it might spare a ventilator for someone else.

I haven't left the house in about 2 weeks, & I won't be until the lock down is finished, so I think the chances of me contracting Covid are pretty slim. But even if I did, I'm under 40 & healthy, so I don't think hospitalisation would be necessary.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 05, 2020, 03:39:29 PM
Perhaps you're right.  Perhaps I don't care about doctors & nurses & such like.
Not having had to go to hospital recently, their work doesn't affect me in the slightest.
Besides, it was their career choice after all, which they made themselves, no one forced them to do it.
They knew full well they'd be treating the sick & injured & would be at increased risk of catching aids or cancer.
no one catches cancer
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 05, 2020, 04:09:46 PM
no one catches cancer
Maybe Wonderfulspam will be the exception.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on April 05, 2020, 04:18:23 PM
Does that mean that you wouldn't seek hospital treatment if you did get a severe case of it? If so, it might spare a ventilator for someone else.
 
Leave it out. It is of no conseque.  Sometime it doesn't matter,
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on April 05, 2020, 06:23:27 PM
What are the statistical risks for those without underlying health conditions?  I think pretty low?

My understanding is that without the lock down measures the NHS would be unable to cope with those who succumb as a result of existing health conditions and/or the elderly ie 70 plus.

A few younger people, seemingly healthy, have lost their lives to the virus but in absence of a post mortem it may be that the victims had undiagnosed existing health conditions.


This is the NHS at its worse.  Tick boxy stats.  They put people into boxes and then if you do not fit in  the chosen box you are ignored.

My uncle who was 47 went to opticians and mentioned he thinks he may have a macula degeneration in his left eye- he was sent to hospital, after an examination, only to be told  no way -too young go away and don't worry. 4 years later. almost blind with macula degeneration. It is unheard of in someone so young BUT  he didn't sit in the correct tick boxy thing.  this is what happened with the COVID19  saying over 70's should stay indoors and only those with underlying health conditions blahblah.  When all the while the doctor in China who discovered the virus and its spread-was a young healthy doctor!!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on April 05, 2020, 07:11:37 PM
I haven't left the house in about 2 weeks, & I won't be until the lock down is finished, so I think the chances of me contracting Covid are pretty slim. But even if I did, I'm under 40 & healthy, so I don't think hospitalisation would be necessary.

The fact that you haven't left the house for two weeks, and are not intending to until the lockdown is over, suggests that you ARE a little worried !
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 05, 2020, 09:06:14 PM
The fact that you haven't left the house for two weeks, and are not intending to until the lockdown is over, suggests that you ARE a little worried !

No,  It's just I'm very [ censored word]ocial & this lockdown is the perfect excuse not to see anyone.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: misty on April 05, 2020, 09:30:26 PM
Breaking news - Boris has been taken to hospital.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 05, 2020, 10:33:23 PM
Breaking news - Boris has been taken to hospital.
Get well soon BoJo.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 06, 2020, 08:52:33 AM
Watching CNN over the past few days, my nose was twitching about understated tensions.

This might well be part of it, but there's more...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244586703475691521.html

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 06, 2020, 09:20:41 AM
Breaking news - Boris has been taken to hospital.

Yes it sort of doesn't surprise me as he looks so unwell in the recent images to my eyes.

Unlike Matt Hancock BJ appears to be overweight and I understand there's a correlation between weight and severity of symptoms.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on April 06, 2020, 07:42:14 PM
Yes it sort of doesn't surprise me as he looks so unwell in the recent images to my eyes.

Unlike Matt Hancock BJ appears to be overweight and I understand there's a correlation between weight and severity of symptoms.

All sorts of misinformation- newest one is black people are more prone? well who thought that one up?

Chinese are NOT black so...

It affects EVERYONE differently. The idea we have  a high risk group is wrong- we are all at risk we may all present various reactions from mild/moderate to fatal.

I and many of my colleagues are very concerned that all cancer screening is on hold! This is WRONG IMO.

kEEP YOUR DISTANCE STAY SAFE ...  This only applies to plebs/not very important people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8190935/Nicola-Sturgeon-defends-handling-Scotlands-chief-medical-officer-row.html
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 06, 2020, 08:21:04 PM
All sorts of misinformation- newest one is black people are more prone? well who thought that one up?

Chinese are NOT black so...

It affects EVERYONE differently. The idea we have  a high risk group is wrong- we are all at risk we may all present various reactions from mild/moderate to fatal.

I and many of my colleagues are very concerned that all cancer screening is on hold! This is WRONG IMO.

kEEP YOUR DISTANCE STAY SAFE ...  This only applies to plebs/not very important people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8190935/Nicola-Sturgeon-defends-handling-Scotlands-chief-medical-officer-row.html

you really need to read things properly...it says black and asian...BME...no one "thought it up"....its a fact

black and asian make up 33% of the deaths...but are only 13% of the population... it also says that it may not simply be the ethinicity that causes the raised figure...there may be other factors
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 06, 2020, 08:22:43 PM
Yes it sort of doesn't surprise me as he looks so unwell in the recent images to my eyes.

Unlike Matt Hancock BJ appears to be overweight and I understand there's a correlation between weight and severity of symptoms.
Boris is now in intensive care.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 06, 2020, 08:30:49 PM
All sorts of misinformation- newest one is black people are more prone? well who thought that one up?

Chinese are NOT black so...

It affects EVERYONE differently. The idea we have  a high risk group is wrong- we are all at risk we may all present various reactions from mild/moderate to fatal.

I and many of my colleagues are very concerned that all cancer screening is on hold! This is WRONG IMO.

kEEP YOUR DISTANCE STAY SAFE ...  This only applies to plebs/not very important people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8190935/Nicola-Sturgeon-defends-handling-Scotlands-chief-medical-officer-row.html

i havent checked but you will almost certainly find its routine cancer screening thats on hold....things like smear tests....that can wait a few weeks or even months...but something where cancer was suspected would be tested
 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 06, 2020, 08:54:37 PM
Boris is now in intensive care.

Could be more precautionary, possibly with an oxygen mask. It might take quite a while to get over, though.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 06, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
Could be more precautionary, possibly with an oxygen mask. It might take quite a while to get over, though.

Don't need to be in intensive care to have oxygen or CPAP.... but let's hope it's overkill and precautionary.. ICU beds, are in short supply
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 06, 2020, 09:11:26 PM
Could be more precautionary, possibly with an oxygen mask. It might take quite a while to get over, though.
The BBC have reported that his symptoms have worsened.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 07, 2020, 09:25:22 AM
I hope he makes a speedy recovery but the fact he has been unable to shake off the symptoms doesn't surprise me as he is overweight and doesn't look at all fit.

Contrast his physique with say that of Matt Hancock and Prof Whitty. 

He has probably had little time to exercise over recent months and I've no idea how these people sleep with literally the world's problems on their shoulders.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 07, 2020, 09:34:14 AM
Don't need to be in intensive care to have oxygen or CPAP.... but let's hope it's overkill and precautionary.. ICU beds, are in short supply

I don't know if anyone has been watching what's happening in the US. Even in their best model, they know they'll be short of thousands of the ICU "must-have" 's : beds, trained staff and equipment.

Even so, several states still haven't locked down, and some (largely Bible-belt) governors are making mass attendance at Easter ceremonies optional.  ?8)@)-)
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on April 07, 2020, 12:39:18 PM
I don't know if anyone has been watching what's happening in the US. Even in their best model, they know they'll be short of thousands of the ICU "must-have" 's : beds, trained staff and equipment.

Even so, several states still haven't locked down, and some (largely Bible-belt) governors are making mass attendance at Easter ceremonies optional.  ?8)@)-)

I have relatives in Atlanta, and they are firmly locked down. I expect many sensible people are, even if it's not compulsory where they live.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 07, 2020, 02:26:35 PM
Georgia just locked down a few days ago. The governor had apparently not realised that it could be carried by asymptomatic people. Not sure which planet he'd been living on for the past few months...

There are still a few that haven't locked down, and even in those that have, less-hit parts of various states don't seem to be taking it as seriously as those in the harder-hit areas.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on April 07, 2020, 04:44:08 PM
Latest on Boris: apparently he is "stable", still in the ICU, but, according to MSN news, is not on a ventilator, and hasn't been diagnosed with pneumonia.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 07, 2020, 09:18:13 PM
I hope he makes a speedy recovery but the fact he has been unable to shake off the symptoms doesn't surprise me as he is overweight and doesn't look at all fit.

Contrast his physique with say that of Matt Hancock and Prof Whitty. 

He has probably had little time to exercise over recent months and I've no idea how these people sleep with literally the world's problems on their shoulders.

According to those close to him although he doesn't look fit he actually is!  Someone gave his height as 5' 9" and weight at 16st.  If this is correct it makes him obese based on the NHS BMI.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 07, 2020, 09:32:10 PM
Themes seem to be emerging as to why some suffer mild symptons and others are hit hard or worse:

- Age
- Underlying health conditions
- Gender - males seem to fare worse but it isn't yet known if this is down to lifestyle: smoking, drinking, exposed to toxins in the workplace, not seeking medical advice or biological differences (or both I guess)
- Virus load ie amount of virus exposed to that subsequently enters the biological system
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on April 08, 2020, 11:58:12 AM
Themes seem to be emerging as to why some suffer mild symptons and others are hit hard or worse:

- Age
- Underlying health conditions
- Gender - males seem to fare worse but it isn't yet known if this is down to lifestyle: smoking, drinking, exposed to toxins in the workplace, not seeking medical advice or biological differences (or both I guess)
- Virus load ie amount of virus exposed to that subsequently enters the biological system

Some men are reluctant to admit just how ill they feel. This can lead to carers and doctors having to wait until it becomes obvious, and so it can delay treatment. I suspect Boris Johnson is one of these men.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on April 10, 2020, 11:25:24 AM
Some men are reluctant to admit just how ill they feel. This can lead to carers and doctors having to wait until it becomes obvious, and so it can delay treatment. I suspect Boris Johnson is one of these men.

Really?  Most men I know can't wait to collapse and complain.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 10, 2020, 06:44:02 PM

Getting really rather bored of Corona Virus now.
Every time I turn on the news it's all they're yapping on about. Is there nothing else happening on planet earth at the moment?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 10, 2020, 06:58:22 PM
Getting really rather bored of Corona Virus now.
Every time I turn on the news it's all they're yapping on about. Is there nothing else happening on planet earth at the moment?
No, literally nothing is happening because of coronavirus apart from thousands of people are dying worldwide, I would have thought hearing this news would gladden your heart on a daily basis.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 10, 2020, 08:02:18 PM
No, literally nothing is happening because of coronavirus apart from thousands of people are dying worldwide, I would have thought hearing this news would gladden your heart on a daily basis.

Well, it's certainly frustrating me. Having to put my life on hold just because all these selfish people are dying.


Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 10, 2020, 10:34:14 PM
Well, it's certainly frustrating me. Having to put my life on hold just because all these selfish people are dying.
But this is what you wanted - death and destruction of humanity on a massive scale, did you really think you wouldn’t be inconvenienced by it on some level?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 10, 2020, 11:17:51 PM
But this is what you wanted - death and destruction of humanity on a massive scale, did you really think you wouldn’t be inconvenienced by it on some level?

A few hundred thousand out of 7 billion is hardly a massive scale imo.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 11, 2020, 08:47:26 AM
A few hundred thousand out of 7 billion is hardly a massive scale imo.
The more who die the more inconvenience it will cause you so what exactly is it that you want?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 11, 2020, 09:42:58 AM
The more who die the more inconvenience it will cause you so what exactly is it that you want?

The pub to open.
I don't think it's too much to ask.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 11, 2020, 10:47:00 AM
The pub to open.
I don't think it's too much to ask.
What can you get in the pub that you can’t get at home?  Judging from your general hatred of humanity you can’t really be missing other people so...?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 11, 2020, 09:59:22 PM
What can you get in the pub that you can’t get at home?  Judging from your general hatred of humanity you can’t really be missing other people so...?

If the pub was open I could go there & there's a chance I could catch corona virus & die from it, which would mean I wouldn't have to hear about corona virus any more.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 12, 2020, 11:50:11 AM
The pub to open.
I don't think it's too much to ask.

I must admit the local boozer is one of the few things I miss!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 12, 2020, 12:26:10 PM
What would have happened if the world had just left the virus run unchecked? 

I think it has to be weighed against the long-term economic and social effects which will indirectly cost lives too.

In 1918 Spanish Flu run unchecked and the highest figure given equates to a death rate of 5%.  That figure could probably be reduced considerably today with modern medical care.

I think it has been said about Covid that if no measures were taken to curtail it it would probably produce a death rate of 1%.

So a moral dilema: do we save 1% at what will inevitably be a significant economic and social cost to the 99% which in itself will lead to loss of life? 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 13, 2020, 06:54:56 PM
How would the UK, let alone the world, provide adequate medical care to what might be 30% or more of the population needing care in that scenario  to end up with just a 1% mortality rate?

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: John on April 13, 2020, 10:47:02 PM
What would have happened if the world had just left the virus run unchecked? 

I think it has to be weighed against the long-term economic and social effects which will indirectly cost lives too.

In 1918 Spanish Flu run unchecked and the highest figure given equates to a death rate of 5%.  That figure could probably be reduced considerably today with modern medical care.

I think it has been said about Covid that if no measures were taken to curtail it it would probably produce a death rate of 1%.

So a moral dilema: do we save 1% at what will inevitably be a significant economic and social cost to the 99% which in itself will lead to loss of life?

I believe that would have been a catastrophe Holly, the only thing that has saved so many of us is the stay at home directive and the social distancing rule.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 13, 2020, 11:27:43 PM

Stay at home.
Protect the NHS.
Die of boredom.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 14, 2020, 01:41:20 PM
How would the UK, let alone the world, provide adequate medical care to what might be 30% or more of the population needing care in that scenario  to end up with just a 1% mortality rate?

ICL did some modelling which showed if no action was taken the death rate would be 510,000 by end Aug.  I can't see in the following whether this is based on England or UK but if England it equates to around 1% of the population.  If UK its obviously less.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 14, 2020, 01:44:51 PM
I believe that would have been a catastrophe Holly, the only thing that has saved so many of us is the stay at home directive and the social distancing rule.

Yes it would be a catastrophe in that the NHS would be unable to cope and doctors would be faced with having to make horrible choices about who would live and die but according to ICL this would result in 500,000 deaths.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 14, 2020, 04:18:35 PM

Coronavirus: 'World faces worst recession since Great Depression'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52273988


Coronavirus: UK economy 'could shrink by record 35%' by June

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52279871


I really don't think saving a few thousands lives out of the earths population of several billion was even remotely worth committing financial suicide over.
How many lives will be lost around the world, not as a result of contracting the virus, but as a direct result of poverty?
The world leaders called this one wrong imo.
Still, if we all stand on our doorsteps clapping on a thursday it will make it all worth while I'm sure.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 14, 2020, 04:38:15 PM
Coronavirus: 'World faces worst recession since Great Depression'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52273988


Coronavirus: UK economy 'could shrink by record 35%' by June

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52279871


I really don't think saving a few thousands lives out of the earths population of several billion was even remotely worth committing financial suicide over.
How many lives will be lost around the world, not as a result of contracting the virus, but as a direct result of poverty?
The world leaders called this one wrong imo.
Still, if we all stand on our doorsteps clapping on a thursday it will make it all worth while I'm sure.

Why do you suddenly care about poverty  around the world
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on April 14, 2020, 04:45:35 PM
Stay at home.
Protect the NHS.
Die of boredom.

There in lies the crux,the Government couldn't care less if you or I or any one else for that matter caught the virus,their concern is because of insufficient funding is that the NHS can't cope.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 14, 2020, 04:57:03 PM
Why do you suddenly care about poverty  around the world

I never said I cared.
I'm just pointing out the mistake world leaders have made in their handling of the virus.
The total number of deaths is ridiculously minuscule in relation to the earths total population.
The right thing to do would be to have kept business open as usual & let nature to take it's course for the unlucky ones.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 14, 2020, 05:28:14 PM

Shut down the health service. That's what they should have done. This would have protected the NHS 100%.
Then, when the public revolt, deploy the military to the streets with orders to shoot to kill anyone causing unrest.
Simple. Had they done this, the lock down would be over by now.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 14, 2020, 05:29:37 PM
I never said I cared.
I'm just pointing out the mistake world leaders have made in their handling of the virus.
The total number of deaths is ridiculously minuscule in relation to the earths total population.
The right thing to do would be to have kept business open as usual & let nature to take it's course for the unlucky ones.

And there's a very good reason you aren't making the decisions
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: sika on April 14, 2020, 05:32:40 PM
What would have happened if the world had just left the virus run unchecked? 

I think it has to be weighed against the long-term economic and social effects which will indirectly cost lives too.

In 1918 Spanish Flu run unchecked and the highest figure given equates to a death rate of 5%.  That figure could probably be reduced considerably today with modern medical care.

I think it has been said about Covid that if no measures were taken to curtail it it would probably produce a death rate of 1%.

So a moral dilema: do we save 1% at what will inevitably be a significant economic and social cost to the 99% which in itself will lead to loss of life?
I suppose the question is, if you lost a loved one to this virus because there was no care available to them, how would you feel ?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 14, 2020, 08:19:26 PM

My kind of president.


PHILIPPINES president Rodrigo Duterte has pledged to shoot anyone who breaches his nation’s coronavirus quarantine in a brutal crackdown.

The leader - known as The Punisher for his outbursts and violent war on drugs - gave police forces and the military shoot to kill orders for anyone caught causing trouble.

Mr Duterte also reminded the nation that any abuse of medical workers will not be tolerated during the coronavirus pandemic.

The Philippines has recorded 2,311 confirmed cases and 96 deaths, but infections are climbing by hundreds every day in the state.

Speaking in a televised address, Mr Duterte issued his vicious warning as he urged everyone to follow quarantine measures.

Authorities are desperately trying to slow the infection to temper impacts on the country’s fragile health system - which already risks being strained by the outbreak.

He said: “It is getting worse. So once again I'm telling you the seriousness of the problem and that you must listen.

“My orders to the police and military ... if there is trouble and there's an occasion that they fight back and your lives are in danger, shoot them dead."

"Is that understood? Dead. Instead of causing trouble, I will bury you."

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11313442/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-shoot-coronavirus-quarantine/
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 15, 2020, 12:39:41 PM
I expect many countries will have similar timelines, albeit with differing factors affecting their own national clusterf**ks, but this seems fairly accurate re the UK.

A Timeline of the UK Government’s Woeful Response
to the Coronavirus Crisis
Ian Sinclair and Rupert Read
11 April 2020

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/a-national-scandal-a-timeline-of-the-uk-governments-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 15, 2020, 02:52:43 PM
I expect many countries will have similar timelines, albeit with differing factors affecting their own national clusterf**ks, but this seems fairly accurate re the UK.

A Timeline of the UK Government’s Woeful Response
to the Coronavirus Crisis
Ian Sinclair and Rupert Read
11 April 2020

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/a-national-scandal-a-timeline-of-the-uk-governments-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

The top part of this article quotes Ricard Horton writing in the Lancet.....this is what he said on question time on 20th march..

Speaking on BBC Question Time on 26 March 2020, Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of the Lancet medical journal, described the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic as “a national scandal”. A look through the key moments in the crisis


yet this is what he wrote on twitter on 24th jan..

Richard horton explains why.
@richardhorton1
·
24 Jan
A call for caution please. Media are escalating anxiety by talking of a “killer virus” + “growing fears”. In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language


what an absolute hypocrite
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 16, 2020, 01:46:43 PM
My concern is what happens when the lockdown ends.  Its been going on for 3 weeks and the numbers, are falling... But is that due to the lockdown. When the lockdiwn ends will we, see the figures rocket
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 16, 2020, 02:07:10 PM
Someone kindly added English subtitles.

https://twitter.com/KristinaFassler/status/1250486433263034375
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 16, 2020, 08:01:37 PM

This is the fourth week running, is it now?, I've lost track, that I haven't stood on my doorstep clapping like a demented seal at 8pm. Feeling rather proud.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 16, 2020, 08:42:34 PM
This is the fourth week running, is it now?, I've lost track, that I haven't stood on my doorstep clapping like a demented seal at 8pm. Feeling rather proud.
What a hero.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 16, 2020, 08:58:30 PM
This is the fourth week running, is it now?, I've lost track, that I haven't stood on my doorstep clapping like a demented seal at 8pm. Feeling rather proud.

I havent seen anyone clapping like a demented seal so perhaps you would have been the first. I'm just glad the vast majority of the country are not like you otherwise things would probably be a lot worse than they are. i'm astonished how these nurses and doctors have carried on working when a lot of us are sitting at home doing nothing. Not only working but risking their lives for their fellow man with some actually losing their lives.  I think you just like to apppear an edgy sort of person whilst your post makes you look a complete d***
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 16, 2020, 09:08:18 PM
I havent seen anyone clapping like a demented seal so perhaps you would have been the first. I'm just glad the vast majority of the country are not like you otherwise things would probably be a lot worse than they are. i'm astonished how these nurses and doctors have carried on working when a lot of us are sitting at home doing nothing. Not only working but risking their lives for their fellow man with some actually losing their lives.  I think you just like to apppear an edgy sort of person whilst your post makes you look a complete d***

I've barely left the house in a month so I'm not responsible for spreading any virus.
If more people were like me, there wouldn't be any virus to speak of.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 16, 2020, 09:13:16 PM
My concern is what happens when the lockdown ends.  Its been going on for 3 weeks and the numbers, are falling... But is that due to the lockdown. When the lockdiwn ends will we, see the figures rocket

Probably, once international travel is permitted again & people go to visit their friends & families or visit shit hole countries like India, the virus will spread again like excrement through a fan.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 16, 2020, 09:17:16 PM
I've barely left the house in a month so I'm not responsible for spreading any virus.
If more people were like me, there wouldn't be any virus to speak of.

Some people have to leave the house...I feel sorry for the supermarket workers...bus drivers. we all cant stay at home forever...more of us will get ill and thank god for the NHS staff who will look after us....possibly save our lives whilst risking their own.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 16, 2020, 09:26:00 PM
ive no problem showing respect to a post from Faithlilly...

This morning - the government’s health secretary said that 19 NHS Staff had died from Coronavirus. I don’t know what he hopes to gain from this fib but it is wrong and inaccurate. Out of respect for their sacrifice we should at least remember their name and the number who gave their lives. 31 NHS staff have so far died of Coronavirus. I list their names below. RIP.

Abdul Chowdhury
Fayaz Ayache
Labeja Acellam
Alfa Saadu
Habib Zaidi
Amged El-Hawrani
Adil El Tayar
Jitendra Rathod
Anton Sebastianpillai
Mo Sami Shousha
Syed Haider
Alice Kit Tak Ong
Emilia Perugia
Daniel Souelto
Carol Jamabo
John Alagos
Liz Glanister
Glen Corbin
Thomas Harvey
Amor Gatinao
Lynsay Coventry
Cathy Sweeney
Janice Graham
Edmund Adedeji
Barbara Moore
Pooja Sharma
Bex Mack
Amreema Nasreen
Amiee O’Rourke

Remember.Their.Names.



let's show some respect
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on April 17, 2020, 11:24:16 AM

This is all self motivated, but nothing much wrong with that, apart from idiots who think that they are invincible.

I don't want it, but I am not so stupid as to think that the danger will end this time around.  It will run for a bit yet.

I don't know if this is Nature's way of controlling the population.  The survival of the fittest, as it were.  And we are only animals after all.  But this has got to be better than another World War.

Just not me, eh God.

You can over egg it anyway you like.  I am scared.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 18, 2020, 10:31:47 PM

I heard that my neighbours cat was killed thursday night.
It was outside at 8pm & became spooked by all the virtue signallers cheering, clapping & banging pots & pans in the street. It ran into the road & got hit by a car.
Disgusting behaviour by these people imo.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on April 19, 2020, 07:45:27 PM
Such a beautiful day here.
Normally a time for everyone to enjoy.
Take care xx
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 19, 2020, 08:14:08 PM
I heard that my neighbours cat was killed thursday night.
It was outside at 8pm & became spooked by all the virtue signallers cheering, clapping & banging pots & pans in the street. It ran into the road & got hit by a car.
Disgusting behaviour by these people imo.

for once I agree with you. Why were these disgusting poeple driving a car when they should have been applauding the NHS.....stay safe
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 21, 2020, 10:39:04 PM
Ok. worldometers now seems to refer to https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths

But for UK stats, it still says

Number of cases and deaths

As of 9am 21 April, 535,342 tests have concluded, with 18,206 tests carried out on 20 April.

397,670 people have been tested, of whom 129,044 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 20 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 17,337 have died.

---

What about those who died in hospital before being tested?
What about those who've died elsewhere? (Care homes, homes...) ?

(A caveat being that it will be difficult to ascertain who died with it or because of it for the elderly or co-morbid.)


Comparing between countries which count in different ways seems impossible for the moment.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 22, 2020, 09:01:42 PM
The military guy who presented at today's press briefing sounded far more competent and commanding than the politicians.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 22, 2020, 11:12:48 PM
The military guy who presented at today's press briefing sounded far more competent and commanding than the politicians.
Let’s hope he saves us all from the nasty bug. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 23, 2020, 02:08:32 AM
Davel,

Your list is a nice thought, but sadly there are a lot more.

NursingNotes
@NursingNotesUK
As of 09:00 on 22/4/2020, at least 111 health and social care workers are now believed to have died of COVID-19. Our team works tirelessly to ensure their names are never forgotten.

https://twitter.com/NursingNotesUK/status/1252871676414455809

That just went up. 117 again.

https://nursingnotes.co.uk/covid-19-memorial/

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 23, 2020, 10:12:58 AM

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?action=post;quote=585342;topic=11296.495

Copying Faith's article link over here.

There was a very similar article in the French (?) media a week or so ago, by a doctor.

It drove him around the bend when people came out to clap (quite an attention-grabbing headline).
The gist was that it's only now that people are starting to realise how underfunded, overworked, etc., they've been since way before COVID, but the superhuman effort they've already been making for years hadn't been acknowledged.

And that the next time the medical / carer community air their grievances, people might do well to support them a bit more than just clap.


Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 24, 2020, 10:17:48 PM

Week 5 of not clapping. But I have been supporting the NHS in other ways. Like paying tax all my working life & not being ill. I look forward to receiving my knighthood.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 27, 2020, 08:45:15 AM
Let’s hope he saves us all from the nasty bug.

No individual or group will save us all from the nasty bug.  Its going to require a massive team effort across the globe.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 27, 2020, 08:58:27 AM
I would prefer an approach similar to Swedens:

In contrast with other countries where political leaders have fronted the national response to the crisis, Dr Tegnell has led the majority of news conferences.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

His tone is typically matter of fact, with a strong focus on figures, and few mentions of the emotional impact of the crisis on victims and their families.


I would imagine those who lived through WW2 are wondering what all the fuss is about.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on April 27, 2020, 09:41:22 AM
I would prefer an approach similar to Swedens:

In contrast with other countries where political leaders have fronted the national response to the crisis, Dr Tegnell has led the majority of news conferences.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

His tone is typically matter of fact, with a strong focus on figures, and few mentions of the emotional impact of the crisis on victims and their families.


I would imagine those who lived through WW2 are wondering what all the fuss is about.

I think we're very lucky to live in the United Kingdom. Most of us have had our incomes secured and have a home to retreat to. If we do fall ill we have a good heathcare system with dedicated staff doing everything they can to help us. There are other countries where people have no secure income and no secure homes they can retreat to. If they fall ill they don't have the healthcare they need to get them well or to ease their suffering.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on April 27, 2020, 10:25:43 AM
I think we're very lucky to live in the United Kingdom. Most of us have had our incomes secured and have a home to retreat to. If we do fall ill we have a good heathcare system with dedicated staff doing everything they can to help us. There are other countries where people have no secure income and no secure homes they can retreat to. If they fall ill they don't have the healthcare they need to get them well or to ease their suffering.

Like you, I'm one of the fortunate ones, but I fear there are many people, even in the UK, who are not. There are those in high rise flats with no outdoor space, and two or three kids. There are people living with violent,  and/or alcoholic partners, or partners with health problems. There are elderly people living in their own homes, and reliant on carers who may or may not turn up. There are teenagers, not allowed to see their boyfriends/girlfriends, and having to live with their parents with whom they might not get on. And, of course, there are people at home who have coronavirus, and who are terrified and/or alone, and nobody is going to attend to them unless they become dangerously ill. 

The list could go on-----and on-------
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on April 27, 2020, 10:36:15 AM
I would prefer an approach similar to Swedens:

In contrast with other countries where political leaders have fronted the national response to the crisis, Dr Tegnell has led the majority of news conferences.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

His tone is typically matter of fact, with a strong focus on figures, and few mentions of the emotional impact of the crisis on victims and their families.


I would imagine those who lived through WW2 are wondering what all the fuss is about.

Not those of them who may be resident in care homes watching their friends dying around them.  I think they may be fussing a little about that 👵👴👨‍🦳👩‍🦳
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on April 27, 2020, 10:46:39 AM
Like you, I'm one of the fortunate ones, but I fear there are many people, even in the UK, who are not. There are those in high rise flats with no outdoor space, and two or three kids. There are people living with violent,  and/or alcoholic partners, or partners with health problems. There are elderly people living in their own homes, and reliant on carers who may or may not turn up. There are teenagers, not allowed to see their boyfriends/girlfriends, and having to live with their parents with whom they might not get on. And, of course, there are people at home who have coronavirus, and who are terrified and/or alone, and nobody is going to attend to them unless they become dangerously ill. 

The list could go on-----and on-------

A post which tells it as it is for so many people living in Great Britain today.  I think we will have to prepare for future changes to our way of life for quite some time to come.  Even those of us who think we are are getting off relatively unscathed will find change which could never have been envisaged just months ago.  Let us hope all for the good although we shall see and it is not something to be complacent about.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 27, 2020, 10:49:34 AM
Like you, I'm one of the fortunate ones, but I fear there are many people, even in the UK, who are not. There are those in high rise flats with no outdoor space, and two or three kids. There are people living with violent,  and/or alcoholic partners, or partners with health problems. There are elderly people living in their own homes, and reliant on carers who may or may not turn up. There are teenagers, not allowed to see their boyfriends/girlfriends, and having to live with their parents with whom they might not get on. And, of course, there are people at home who have coronavirus, and who are terrified and/or alone, and nobody is going to attend to them unless they become dangerously ill. 

The list could go on-----and on-------

But these sorts of problems have always existed pandemic or no pandemic.

Those in high rise flats are never going to face flooding!  If they don't like it move!  And why procreate if the accommodation is unsuitable!?

Those with violent and/or abusive partners need to find it in themselves to break free and end the relationship.

No teenager is going to come to any harm because he/she can't hook up with his/her girlfriend/boyfriend  for a few weeks or even longer. 

Of course the sick and elderly need taking care of. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 27, 2020, 10:59:51 AM
Not those of them who may be resident in care homes watching their friends dying around them.  I think they may be fussing a little about that 👵👴👨‍🦳👩‍🦳

How many residents in care homes died last year from all causes over the time period since the first covid case in UK to date? 

How many residents in care homes have died this year from all causes since the first covid case in UK to date and what % from covid? 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 27, 2020, 11:03:49 AM
A post which tells it as it is for so many people living in Great Britain today.  I think we will have to prepare for future changes to our way of life for quite some time to come.  Even those of us who think we are are getting off relatively unscathed will find change which could never have been envisaged just months ago.  Let us hope all for the good although we shall see and it is not something to be complacent about.

It was all going to fall apart at some stage as nothing about current models is sustainable.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on April 27, 2020, 12:09:40 PM
But these sorts of problems have always existed pandemic or no pandemic.

Those in high rise flats are never going to face flooding!  If they don't like it move!  And why procreate if the accommodation is unsuitable!?

Those with violent and/or abusive partners need to find it in themselves to break free and end the relationship.

No teenager is going to come to any harm because he/she can't hook up with his/her girlfriend/boyfriend  for a few weeks or even longer. 

Of course the sick and elderly need taking care of.

Yes, social problems have always existed, but they must be accentuated if one has to remain in the same home as a partner who is causing them harm. Normally, one can "escape" for a while, or stay somewhere else, or even go to work!

Teenagers can be very emotional. I would guess that being parted from someone they love (or think they love) might even lead to suicide attempts, or actual suicide in a vulnerable individual.

Many people don't choose to live in high rise flats: it is all they can afford. As for leaving an abusive relationship, people don't for a number of reasons: they can't afford to, or, despite everything, they need the "status" of having a partner, or they have children and wont leave them.

There will be a number of people who have lost their jobs and cant make ends meet. They no longer love their partners. Their kids are getting on their nerves. Throw alcohol into the mix, and all kinds of awful things can happen.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on April 27, 2020, 01:41:45 PM
Like you, I'm one of the fortunate ones, but I fear there are many people, even in the UK, who are not. There are those in high rise flats with no outdoor space, and two or three kids. There are people living with violent,  and/or alcoholic partners, or partners with health problems. There are elderly people living in their own homes, and reliant on carers who may or may not turn up. There are teenagers, not allowed to see their boyfriends/girlfriends, and having to live with their parents with whom they might not get on. And, of course, there are people at home who have coronavirus, and who are terrified and/or alone, and nobody is going to attend to them unless they become dangerously ill. 

The list could go on-----and on-------

I did say most of us....
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 27, 2020, 04:37:58 PM
But these sorts of problems have always existed pandemic or no pandemic.

Those in high rise flats are never going to face flooding!  If they don't like it move!  And why procreate if the accommodation is unsuitable!?

Those with violent and/or abusive partners need to find it in themselves to break free and end the relationship.

No teenager is going to come to any harm because he/she can't hook up with his/her girlfriend/boyfriend  for a few weeks or even longer. 

Of course the sick and elderly need taking care of.
Those in high rise flats are never going to face flooding! No but they stand an increased risk of burning to death.
  If they don't like it move! And how are they going to do that in the midst of the Covid lockdown?
And why procreate if the accommodation is unsuitable!? Did you consider the possibility that they procreated first, and ended up for reasons beyond their control in accomodation that is not ideal?
Those with violent and/or abusive partners need to find it in themselves to break free and end the relationship And where would you reccomend the go in the midst of Covid lockdown?
No teenager is going to come to any harm because he/she can't hook up with his/her girlfriend/boyfriend  for a few weeks or even longer - one teenager that I know of has already "come to harm" because he couldn't bear the prospect of not seeing his girlfriend for months.  https://www.yorkmix.com/brighton-boy-16-missing-after-trying-to-walk-280-miles-to-pocklington-to-see-his-girlfriend/
Of course the sick and elderly need taking care of. Evidence that you do have a heart after all, I guess that's something.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 27, 2020, 08:16:43 PM
Has anyone here knowingly contracted Covid?  Or personally knows of anyone directly or indirectly? 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 27, 2020, 08:18:48 PM
Anyone suffering domestic abuse is encouraged to contact the police.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on April 27, 2020, 08:58:43 PM
Has anyone here knowingly contracted Covid?  Or personally knows of anyone directly or indirectly?

Nope.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on April 27, 2020, 09:11:54 PM
Has anyone here knowingly contracted Covid?  Or personally knows of anyone directly or indirectly?

Yes.
Our nephew who has thankfully recovered .
My grand daughter's friend's mum who I  have met many times and is a nurse in Glasgow..
ETA.
He recovered at home.
She is still recovering in hospital.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on April 27, 2020, 09:42:22 PM
Has anyone here knowingly contracted Covid?  Or personally knows of anyone directly or indirectly?

Son in law's brother did (mildly), and also his wife (taken to hospital, but didn't have to stay in). Both live in London.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on April 27, 2020, 11:22:07 PM
My window cleaner died of it.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 28, 2020, 12:43:38 AM
Has anyone here knowingly contracted Covid?  Or personally knows of anyone directly or indirectly?

Our Rob, apparently. Hope he recovers.

NB: Not sure what you mean by "knowingly".
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 28, 2020, 09:39:58 AM
Thanks to those who've shared their experiences. So it is most definitely amongst us  8(8-))
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on April 28, 2020, 09:46:15 AM
Our Rob, apparently. Hope he recovers.

NB: Not sure what you mean by "knowingly".

Yes get well soon Rob.  I think he said he's NZ based.

By 'knowingly' I was referring to the fact that, as I understand it anyway, some people can contract Covid and have such mild symptons they're not even aware they have it.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: G-Unit on April 28, 2020, 02:12:33 PM
Our Rob, apparently. Hope he recovers.

NB: Not sure what you mean by "knowingly".

I think people may have had it without being diagnosed.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 28, 2020, 02:36:56 PM
Asymptomatic carriers appear to be a problem, as they (perhaps you or me) aren't aware of it, but could contaminate others.



Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: sadie on April 29, 2020, 01:39:02 AM
Our Rob, apparently. Hope he recovers.

NB: Not sure what you mean by "knowingly".

I spoke to Rob in NZ a few days ago.  Almost certainly he had Coronavirus because he had contact with a Chinese man just back from Wuhan after a Christmas break out there.

Rob was a vet, so his medical training will likely be as deep as a doctors training.   He believes that he and also his cat almost certainly had it.

He is recovering and getting on with life as well as he can, but has little energy.  I think ' fatiqued ' is the word to describe how he is feeling at the moment.


He cannot come on here because his computer is broken.  Hopefully it is being mended at the moment



If I get to speak to him again, I will pass on your kind wishes Carana.

~~~~~~~~~


ETA:

O.M.G.!

After weeks of being totally unable to post, or pm, or log out, I am suddendly allowed in.   Yahroo !

And I don't think that I did anything against the rules.   All I could do was give ' likes ' for weeks
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on April 29, 2020, 01:45:27 AM
Thanks Sadie.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on April 29, 2020, 06:03:25 AM
I spoke to Rob in NZ a few days ago.  Almost certainly he had Coronavirus because he had contact with a Chinese man just back from Wuhan after a Christmas break out there.

Rob was a vet, so his medical training will likely be as deep as a doctors training.   He believes that he and also his cat almost certainly had it.

He is recovering and getting on with life as well as he can, but has little energy.  I think ' fatiqued ' is the word to describe how he is feeling at the moment.


He cannot come on here because his computer is broken.  Hopefully it is being mended at the moment



If I get to speak to him again, I will pass on your kind wishes Carana.

~~~~~~~~~


ETA:

O.M.G.!

After weeks of being totally unable to post, or pm, or log out, I am suddendly allowed in.   Yahroo !

And I don't think that I did anything against the rules.   All I could do was give ' likes ' for weeks

I have had the same problem this last couple of days, Sadie.  Actually identical.  Cleared up now.  perhaps it took more than one Poster to see what the problem was.

Glad that you are now back.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: sadie on April 29, 2020, 12:14:39 PM
I have had the same problem this last couple of days, Sadie.  Actually identical.  Cleared up now.  perhaps it took more than one Poster to see what the problem was.

Glad that you are now back.

My permissions vanished again after my post above, but I am hoping that I have found a back way in that allows me to post.   Let's see, shall we ?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~


ETA:   Seems my back way in is working.   Too early to be sure tho'
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: sadie on April 29, 2020, 11:32:20 PM
My permissions vanished again after my post above, but I am hoping that I have found a back way in that allows me to post.   Let's see, shall we ?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~


ETA:   Seems my back way in is working.   Too early to be sure tho'

Testing again.

It works !!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on May 09, 2020, 08:41:35 PM


Lockdown rules to be relaxed from tomorrow?  Yeah right!
Maybe you'll be able to queue up at a garden centre or get 1 extra hour outside. Whoopdie f..king doo.

The government has backed itself into a corner & along with the MSM, have scared the British public into submission IMO. 

I've been reading posts on Facebook & I'm amazed by how many people have swallowed the 'Protect the NHS' BS & are supportive of the lockdown measures.

I wonder if these same virtue signalling happy clappers will still be supporting the government rules when they have no jobs to return too & are queuing up at food banks.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on May 09, 2020, 08:48:10 PM

Lockdown rules to be relaxed from tomorrow?  Yeah right!
Maybe you'll be able to queue up at a garden centre or get 1 extra hour outside. Whoopdie f....ing doo.

The government has backed itself into a corner & along with the MSM, have scared the British public into submission IMO. 

I've been reading posts on Facebook & I'm amazed by how many people have swallowed the 'Protect the NHS' BS & are supportive of the lockdown measures.

I wonder if these same virtue signalling happy clappers will still be supporting the government rules when they have no jobs to return too & are queuing up at food banks.

What?  Like me you mean with my Basic British State Pension?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on May 09, 2020, 09:56:55 PM

Lockdown rules to be relaxed from tomorrow?  Yeah right!
Maybe you'll be able to queue up at a garden centre or get 1 extra hour outside. Whoopdie f....ing doo.

The government has backed itself into a corner & along with the MSM, have scared the British public into submission IMO. 

I've been reading posts on Facebook & I'm amazed by how many people have swallowed the 'Protect the NHS' BS & are supportive of the lockdown measures.

I wonder if these same virtue signalling happy clappers will still be supporting the government rules when they have no jobs to return too & are queuing up at food banks.

I am actually quite worried about people's mental health.

I've been reading lots of  comments too, and it seems  that some people really believe that they will die if another person comes too close to them. Many say they will be too afraid to leave their homes, even when the lockdown is lifted. A number of parents are saying that , no way will they send their children back to school.  Some are prepared to self isolate until a vaccine is available, and I'm not just talking about people who have underlying health conditions, or those who are elderly.

Supporting the lockdown measures is sensible, but it disturbs me that many people are going to be terrified of leading normal lives again, even after it has been deemed safe to do so.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on May 09, 2020, 10:32:56 PM
I am actually quite worried about people's mental health.

I've been reading lots of  comments too, and it seems  that some people really believe that they will die if another person comes too close to them. Many say they will be too afraid to leave their homes, even when the lockdown is lifted. A number of parents are saying that , no way will they send their children back to school.  Some are prepared to self isolate until a vaccine is available, and I'm not just talking about people who have underlying health conditions, or those who are elderly.

Supporting the lockdown measures is sensible, but it disturbs me that many people are going to be terrified of leading normal lives again, even after it has been deemed safe to do so.

Yes, I have read people saying the same. It's pathetic. The MSM & government are to blame for this with their permanent fear mongering. As I understand it, 99% of the UK population haven't died of CV, yet the media is putting the focus firmly on the tiny minority that have.

I also have concerns about my own mental health, having been locked at home for the past two months with no certain release date, It got me thinking,  If I were in prison I could probably still have access to a gym. Go figure!

I read also that the lockdown measures could increase the chances of people being radicalized.
Which got me thinking, maybe 9/11 wasn't all that bad, & just yesterday I was watching the VE day celebrations & I couldn't help thinking, I kind of wish the Nazis had won.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on May 09, 2020, 10:50:05 PM
We will have to see what happens as the lock down is eased.... Not just in the UK but around the world... At the moment the death rate in New York is up 380% on the normal yearly average
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on May 09, 2020, 11:19:24 PM
Yes, I have read people saying the same. It's pathetic. The MSM & government are to blame for this with their permanent fear mongering. As I understand it, 99% of the UK population haven't died of CV, yet the media is putting the focus firmly on the tiny minority that have.

I also have concerns about my own mental health, having been locked at home for the past two months with no certain release date, It got me thinking,  If I were in prison I could probably still have access to a gym. Go figure!

I read also that the lockdown measures could increase the chances of people being radicalized.
Which got me thinking, maybe 9/11 wasn't all that bad, & just yesterday I was watching the VE day celebrations & I couldn't help thinking, I kind of wish the Nazis had won.
looks like you’ve got very good reason to be concerned about your own mental health if the above is anything to go by.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on May 09, 2020, 11:29:30 PM

If I become a serial killer, arsonist or Jihadist in the coming weeks, that isn't  going to protect the nhs & save lives. And there will be no one to blame but the government, & China.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on May 09, 2020, 11:55:37 PM
If I become a serial killer, arsonist or Jihadist in the coming weeks, that isn't  going to protect the nhs & save lives. And there will be no one to blame but the government, & China.
Have you converted to Islam?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: barrier on May 10, 2020, 08:46:48 AM
When Boris announced the lockdown the infection rate was doubling every three to four days,since lockdown has it reduced at that same rate?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 10, 2020, 11:37:29 AM
In the beginning, it was doubling every 2 days. Then, IIRC, hovered around doubling every 3-4 days for some time.

The acceleration rate appears to have been plateauing (I wish I could imitate Cuomo's pronunciation lol) and on a slight decline.

However, IMO, there are a few problems with assessing the rate of infection.

The UK was only testing serious/critical cases in hospital, then they expanded to other patients, and now onto hospital staff, etc.

Nearly all of those serious cases will have contaminated others, but who haven't been tested. A proportion may have been asymptomatic, but still carriers; others would have had few symptoms (not worth calling a doctor about); others a moderate level (sub-emergency), and a further proportion needing hospitalisation themselves, thereby adding another case to the count.

Where there has been effective contact tracing and testing, case rates will appear higher. In other places, until there is an adequate antibody test, there's no way of knowing what the case rate has actually been.

Even where lockdowns are in place, essential workers can still get infected and contaminate others; as can those in lockdown but who still need to go out for shopping or others reasons; plus a percentage of people who haven't followed the lockdown measures.

Then there is the issue of, e.g., a cashier getting infected. A member of a lockdown family gets infected and goes back home. Few people living together, whether in a family setting or in a flat share can, or would want to, self-isolate (quarantine is bad enough).

In the (few) countries that have imposed a more severe lockdown (in some cases literally boarded up), the case rate peaked, then dropped dramatically - but such extreme measures wouldn't be tolerated in non-authoritarian regimes.
In other places, where there has been an effective tracing, testing and isolating / quarantining strategy, the case rate will also show a rapid decline.

As PPE and testing increase, and testing result times speed up, rates will fall and it will be safer to ease off and get the economy up and running again and to have some semblance of a more normal life (albeit a "new normal" one).

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 10, 2020, 11:49:14 AM
There are bound to be new outbreaks, even after a lockdown.

South Korea deemed it safe to let night clubs reopen a week or so ago... then one infected person who apparently went off club-hopping, set off another outbreak. That's bound to happen, but when authorities are in a position to effectively get back to contact tracing, etc., then they can be more easily contained.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-2-000-bars-shut-in-seoul-as-18-new-covid-19-cases-linked-to-one-man-11985686

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 11, 2020, 03:18:31 AM
After months of fatigue, I developed acute pancreatitis, hepatitis, acute renal failure and excessively high hypertension.
Was this one of the syndromes of Covid?   There was no real cause established but studies from China had found the connection.   
It was drinking milk that seemed to heal me.   Two days in the hospital and I was sent home.   
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on May 11, 2020, 05:56:02 AM
After months of fatigue, I developed acute pancreatitis, hepatitis, acute renal failure and excessively high hypertension.
Was this one of the syndromes of Covid?   There was no real cause established but studies from China had found the connection.   
It was drinking milk that seemed to heal me.   Two days in the hospital and I was sent home.   

Thank God you are okay.  I have been really worried about you.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on May 11, 2020, 08:27:03 AM
After months of fatigue, I developed acute pancreatitis, hepatitis, acute renal failure and excessively high hypertension.
Was this one of the syndromes of Covid?   There was no real cause established but studies from China had found the connection.   
It was drinking milk that seemed to heal me.   Two days in the hospital and I was sent home.   

Glad you came through all of that.  Take care of yourself and I hope you keep well.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 11, 2020, 09:24:02 AM
Glad you came through all of that.  Take care of yourself and I hope you keep well.
I've been ill for months now, always isolated but never quite getting over it.  I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to get fully well at the moment.  I'm taking daily multivitamins and fish oils.   I might have to get some lambs fry.
Any suggestions as to how to recover?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on May 11, 2020, 10:56:50 AM
I've been ill for months now, always isolated but never quite getting over it.  I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to get fully well at the moment.  I'm taking daily multivitamins and fish oils.   I might have to get some lambs fry.
Any suggestions as to how to recover?

Good luck Rob....as a matter of interest were you tested. its ironic that none of our UK posters seem to have had any problems but you in NZ have.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on May 11, 2020, 11:02:24 AM
Welcome back Rob, and hope you are soon fully recovered.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: puglove on May 11, 2020, 01:02:40 PM
I've been ill for months now, always isolated but never quite getting over it.  I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to get fully well at the moment.  I'm taking daily multivitamins and fish oils.   I might have to get some lambs fry.
Any suggestions as to how to recover?

Blimey Rob, poor you. You've had a bad do. I'm really glad that you're gradually feeling better. But I'm not sure about lambs' fry - you might be adding toxins to your system. Maybe consider a  good quality CBD oil?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 11, 2020, 01:46:54 PM
Good luck Rob....as a matter of interest were you tested. its ironic that none of our UK posters seem to have had any problems but you in NZ have.
I have submitted to 3 tests so far.

In the early stages, the instructions were to stay at home and self-isolate which is what I did. The symptoms in February and March have always been mild, sore throat, mild cough, asthma at night, but this malaise and tiredness that made self-isolating quite easy to do. 
Mid-March my cat got sick and sneezed into my face three times in quick succession.  After that, I recall getting pinkeyes.  which lasted several weeks. (https://wgxa.tv/resources/media/e197a917-ff19-4760-a18e-250b589d282d-large16x9_pe1.PNG?1585661782718)
https://wgxa.tv/news/nation-world/pink-eye-now-linked-as-possible-symptom-of-coronavirus-03-31-2020-112244698
I also had an "orf" like skin lesion on my right-hand index finger.  That lesion had been there for months and I got my friend to check to see if there was a foreign body in it. 

(https://www.medicalimages.com/imagePreview/01AEQUTK?imageId=9257287&imageCode=01AEQUTK&contributor=Hercules+Robinson&siteName=www.medicalimages.com&title=&location=&ds=800&newStyle=1&tc=FFFFFF&tbc=333333&qv=95&icc=1&cl=1)

So after disturbing that I developed soreness in my leg (I put this down to an inflamed leg vein which I have had in the past). 
It was about a fortnight ago that I started to feel discomfort in my liver and stomach area.

Speaking to my daughter about this I decided to get a Covid test but they swab one's nose but I had been using peroxide nasal sprays for months prior to that and my nostrils were 100% OK.  No virus was recovered.

Since getting back from the hospital I developed a sore throat and a cough (last Thursday) so I was retested last Friday and got my clearance late Saturday.

I also submitted a sputum sample to my GP but I was told today they had not submitted it for testing.

I was in contact with a person who had returned from China, after being in Hubei Province (a town near Wuhan but I can't recall the name) in early Jan 2020.  He became quite sick and I might have caught it from him.

Even though UK has a lot of cases still only a small percentage of the population has been in contact with the virus at this stage.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on May 11, 2020, 02:06:57 PM
I've been ill for months now, always isolated but never quite getting over it.  I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to get fully well at the moment.  I'm taking daily multivitamins and fish oils.   I might have to get some lambs fry.
Any suggestions as to how to recover?

Just build up your immune system by living healthily and try to take your mind of it. Try blueberries and other nutrient rich food 8((()*/
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Holly Goodhead on May 11, 2020, 02:12:13 PM
Just build up your immune system by living healthily and try to take your mind of it. Try blueberries and other nutrient rich food 8((()*/

Bluberries, easy peelers (satsumas/clementines) tenderstem, sardines, mackrel, salmon, yoghurt with live cultures.

Bet you feel better in no time  8((()*/
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 11, 2020, 03:03:37 PM
After months of fatigue, I developed acute pancreatitis, hepatitis, acute renal failure and excessively high hypertension.
Was this one of the syndromes of Covid?   There was no real cause established but studies from China had found the connection.   
It was drinking milk that seemed to heal me.   Two days in the hospital and I was sent home.   

Hey! I'd wondered where you'd got to. Glad to see you back.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 11, 2020, 11:17:33 PM
Hey! I'd wondered where you'd got to. Glad to see you back.
The forum is really quiet at the moment.  Take care.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on May 12, 2020, 08:04:26 AM
The forum is really quiet at the moment.  Take care.

We are all on The Bamber Forum, which I have to say is marginally worse than this one.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on May 12, 2020, 09:32:08 AM
Glad to see you are recovering, albeit at a slow pace .
Take care Rob and everyone else too.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 12, 2020, 05:55:48 PM
I have submitted to 3 tests so far.

In the early stages, the instructions were to stay at home and self-isolate which is what I did. The symptoms in February and March have always been mild, sore throat, mild cough, asthma at night, but this malaise and tiredness that made self-isolating quite easy to do. 
Mid-March my cat got sick and sneezed into my face three times in quick succession.  After that, I recall getting pinkeyes.  which lasted several weeks. (https://wgxa.tv/resources/media/e197a917-ff19-4760-a18e-250b589d282d-large16x9_pe1.PNG?1585661782718)
https://wgxa.tv/news/nation-world/pink-eye-now-linked-as-possible-symptom-of-coronavirus-03-31-2020-112244698
I also had an "orf" like skin lesion on my right-hand index finger.  That lesion had been there for months and I got my friend to check to see if there was a foreign body in it. 

(https://www.medicalimages.com/imagePreview/01AEQUTK?imageId=9257287&imageCode=01AEQUTK&contributor=Hercules+Robinson&siteName=www.medicalimages.com&title=&location=&ds=800&newStyle=1&tc=FFFFFF&tbc=333333&qv=95&icc=1&cl=1)

So after disturbing that I developed soreness in my leg (I put this down to an inflamed leg vein which I have had in the past). 
It was about a fortnight ago that I started to feel discomfort in my liver and stomach area.

Speaking to my daughter about this I decided to get a Covid test but they swab one's nose but I had been using peroxide nasal sprays for months prior to that and my nostrils were 100% OK.  No virus was recovered.

Since getting back from the hospital I developed a sore throat and a cough (last Thursday) so I was retested last Friday and got my clearance late Saturday.

I also submitted a sputum sample to my GP but I was told today they had not submitted it for testing.

I was in contact with a person who had returned from China, after being in Hubei Province (a town near Wuhan but I can't recall the name) in early Jan 2020.  He became quite sick and I might have caught it from him.

Even though UK has a lot of cases still only a small percentage of the population has been in contact with the virus at this stage.

I'm not aware of those symptoms as being related to Covid-19, Rob. Have you checked what else it could be?

PS How's pussycat?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 13, 2020, 12:22:27 AM
Pussy cat is basically well as far as I can tell.  She has been self-isolating and resting up on my lap for the last 3 months as well.
One thing that I did notice lately though is that when she is asleep she seems to have quite severe twitching sessions.   I did read there were reports that the Coronavirus can affect human brains as well.

What I've noticed myself:
I did notice that after coming out of the hospital (just over a week ago) I couldn't follow the storylines on the movies I was watching.   That seems to have come right.
I also had fallen over several times about 7 weeks ago. 
One other symptom that I don't mention much was the anosmia (loss of sense of smell).   I had not really noticed that I had lost my sense of smell till one day I noticed the sense returned and everything seems to be really smelly.
https://www.wired.com/story/what-does-covid-19-do-to-your-brain/

Just reading that article reminded me that one of the early symptoms of Covid 19  is a headache.   I had a mild headache early on too, but nothing that a Panadol didn't fix.  So it is easy to forget the headache.

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 13, 2020, 11:51:29 PM
In acute cases the nasal swabs might be the best way to track the spread of the virus but I'm tending to think that faecal testing is required to isolate carriers.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/study-many-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases-undetected
"Questionable findings from single throat swab test
In the EID study, a 39-year-old hospital nephrologist who began having a dry cough on Jan 31 was hospitalized with fever on Feb 7 and diagnosed as having coronavirus on Feb 10. He lived with his wife, a lab physician with no patient contact; their 7-year-old twins with only family contact due to school closures; and the twins' retired 62-year-old grandfather and 64-year-old grandmother.

All family members were hospitalized on Feb 11 and remained asymptomatic throughout their 21-day stay. All tested positive for COVID-19 except one who tested negative on four consecutive throat swabs but was positive on stool specimen testing and had high liver enzyme levels but no jaundice.

Another family member had a high D-dimer level, indicating blood clots. All abnormal lab findings normalized during the hospital stay. Three family members had abnormal chest computed tomography (CT) scans.

The wife, who had 11 serial throat swabs, showed negative results on two consecutive occasions and then reverted to a positive result. She also underwent serologic testing, which showed low levels of B lymphocytes but no coronavirus antibodies. The authors said that her case illustrates the challenges of interpreting the results of quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) for COVID-19.


"Coronavirus Covid 19: NZ in pilot plan to sample sewage for virus" 

"Recent studies have shown that live Sars-Cov-2 – the virus that causes Covid-19 – can be isolated from the faeces and urine of infected people, and can sometimes survive for up to several days after leaving the body."

The virus doesn't even have to be alive to be detected.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 16, 2020, 12:10:05 AM
I heard this on the News today "New evidence in race to find France's COVID-19 'patient zero'" France had Covid 19 like cases in November 2019.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-evidence-race-find-france-s-covid-19-patient-zero-n1207871
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on May 16, 2020, 01:20:09 AM
In acute cases the nasal swabs might be the best way to track the spread of the virus but I'm tending to think that faecal testing is required to isolate carriers.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/study-many-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases-undetected
"Questionable findings from single throat swab test
In the EID study, a 39-year-old hospital nephrologist who began having a dry cough on Jan 31 was hospitalized with fever on Feb 7 and diagnosed as having coronavirus on Feb 10. He lived with his wife, a lab physician with no patient contact; their 7-year-old twins with only family contact due to school closures; and the twins' retired 62-year-old grandfather and 64-year-old grandmother.

All family members were hospitalized on Feb 11 and remained asymptomatic throughout their 21-day stay. All tested positive for COVID-19 except one who tested negative on four consecutive throat swabs but was positive on stool specimen testing and had high liver enzyme levels but no jaundice.

Another family member had a high D-dimer level, indicating blood clots. All abnormal lab findings normalized during the hospital stay. Three family members had abnormal chest computed tomography (CT) scans.

The wife, who had 11 serial throat swabs, showed negative results on two consecutive occasions and then reverted to a positive result. She also underwent serologic testing, which showed low levels of B lymphocytes but no coronavirus antibodies. The authors said that her case illustrates the challenges of interpreting the results of quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) for COVID-19.


"Coronavirus Covid 19: NZ in pilot plan to sample sewage for virus" 

"Recent studies have shown that live Sars-Cov-2 – the virus that causes Covid-19 – can be isolated from the faeces and urine of infected people, and can sometimes survive for up to several days after leaving the body."

The virus doesn't even have to be alive to be detected.

The more they find out about this virus the more worrying the situation is becoming, as if it wasn't bad enough in the first place.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 16, 2020, 07:25:38 AM
The more they find out about this virus the more worrying the situation is becoming, as if it wasn't bad enough in the first place.
Once they recognise the syndromes and learn how to specifically treat them things will be getting better.

Like additional vitamin D and zinc seem helpful.  I get my top off as often as I can to get sun exposure.   Haven't figured the extra zinc as yet other than taking Centrum A to Z tablets. 

I've actually felt nearly normal this afternoon for the first time in months.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on May 16, 2020, 10:50:34 AM
Once they recognise the syndromes and learn how to specifically treat them things will be getting better.

Like additional vitamin D and zinc seem helpful.  I get my top off as often as I can to get sun exposure.   Haven't figured the extra zinc as yet other than taking Centrum A to Z tablets. 

I've actually felt nearly normal this afternoon for the first time in months.

I am so pleased to hear that Rob.  But don't get cocky and try to do too much too soon.  Festina lente
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on May 17, 2020, 11:48:02 AM

What is this?  Don't catch it in the first place.  You might not become immune, but you don't have to.  Some people manage to have good lives without catching nasty things.  There is No Law that says you have to.  You just have to apply a bit of common sense.

But then Common Sense isn't one of the attributes of The Human Race.  Which is why some of us are expendable.  And for why Planet Earth hasn't yet collapsed under the weight.

A War or A Virus.  Take your pick.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 17, 2020, 04:53:47 PM
What is this?  Don't catch it in the first place.  You might not become immune, but you don't have to.  Some people manage to have good lives without catching nasty things.  There is No Law that says you have to.  You just have to apply a bit of common sense.

But then Common Sense isn't one of the attributes of The Human Race.  Which is why some of us are expendable.  And for why Planet Earth hasn't yet collapsed under the weight.

A War or A Virus.  Take your pick.
IMO the only positive I can take from this episode is that I'm now immune.   I can go around and I feel safe.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on May 17, 2020, 06:29:53 PM
IMO the only positive I can take from this episode is that I'm now immune.   I can go around and I feel safe.

Are you absolutely sure about this?  Have you been tested as such?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 17, 2020, 10:59:26 PM
Are you absolutely sure about this?  Have you been tested as such?
As soon as I can I'll get an antibody test to confirm it.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 18, 2020, 10:28:31 AM
As soon as I can I'll get an antibody test to confirm it.

So will I.

However, there is still some discussion as to a) whether an antibody test can confirm immunity and to what degree and b) which, if any, test could confirm immunity from all of the main current strains.

IMO, we're all going to have to adapt to a "new normal" way of life for a year or two.

I'm delighted to be out of quarantine, but I'm also conscious of the need to avoid a false sense of security which could compromise my own health and that of others.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 18, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
So will I.

However, there is still some discussion as to a) whether an antibody test can confirm immunity and to what degree and b) which, if any, test could confirm immunity from all of the main current strains.

IMO, we're all going to have to adapt to a "new normal" way of life for a year or two.

I'm delighted to be out of quarantine, but I'm also conscious of the need to avoid a false sense of security which could compromise my own health and that of others.
I know that feeling.   When did you get the first symptoms, may I ask?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Mr Gray on May 18, 2020, 02:12:37 PM
I know that feeling.   When did you get the first symptoms, may I ask?

did Carana  say she had covid
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 18, 2020, 03:51:30 PM
I know that feeling.   When did you get the first symptoms, may I ask?

I doubt that I've had it. A few days of feeling a bit unwell but then it passed.

Did I not have it at all, or did I just get a really mild / asymptomatic version? No idea.

How important is the viral load through, e.g. touching a contaminated surface then touching your face compared to having somone sneeze in your face or spending hours in their company?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Brietta on May 18, 2020, 04:51:46 PM
I doubt that I've had it. A few days of feeling a bit unwell but then it passed.

Did I not have it at all, or did I just get a really mild / asymptomatic version? No idea.

How important is the viral load through, e.g. touching a contaminated surface then touching your face compared to having somone sneeze in your face or spending hours in their company?

I think that is the problem with it.  You can have it or had it without being aware which makes me a bit uneasy for lockdown not to be lifted too soon.  Although I see that some are now questioning the validity of it in the first instance.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 18, 2020, 04:59:18 PM
I think that is the problem with it.  You can have it or had it without being aware which makes me a bit uneasy for lockdown not to be lifted too soon.  Although I see that some are now questioning the validity of it in the first instance.

I think many people think that the projected figures were OTT - but that's what projections do: estimate the potential worst, best and median outcomes.

At the same time - for the moment, I haven't been boasting about shaking hands with potential Covid patients in a hospital 2 days prior to the first UK death and ending up in a life/death situation myself a few days later.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on May 18, 2020, 05:04:47 PM
I tried to work out the projected number of potential deaths - my calculations ended up as more than the 510k, but all that was based on statistics from Asia and Italy, who were the first hit.

Projections are (or should be) dynamic and de facto change as data emerges.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on May 19, 2020, 03:14:00 AM
I doubt that I've had it. A few days of feeling a bit unwell but then it passed.

Did I not have it at all, or did I just get a really mild / asymptomatic version? No idea.

How important is the viral load through, e.g. touching a contaminated surface then touching your face compared to having someone sneeze in your face or spending hours in their company?
From what I read and heard via YouTube viral load is the most important issue.   I'd even suggest one engineer a low viral load infection and get mild symptoms rather than wait for the day someone sneezes directly into one's face.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on June 08, 2020, 11:32:51 PM
I hadn't known this before!  "Britain's Prince Charles tests positive for Covid-19 coronavirus"  https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/412612/britain-s-prince-charles-tests-positive-for-covid-19-coronavirus
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on June 09, 2020, 10:34:26 AM
I hadn't known this before!  "Britain's Prince Charles tests positive for Covid-19 coronavirus"  https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/412612/britain-s-prince-charles-tests-positive-for-covid-19-coronavirus

Around the same time as Boris, if I remember correctly.

Unlike Boris, Prince Charles recovered within a week, even though he is over 70!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on June 09, 2020, 11:04:45 AM

I am over egging it myself, if anyone wants to know.  I am getting more attention than I have ever had.  I shan't be giving that up in a hurry.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on June 09, 2020, 01:31:45 PM
After months of fatigue, I developed acute pancreatitis, hepatitis, acute renal failure and excessively high hypertension.
Was this one of the syndromes of Covid?   There was no real cause established but studies from China had found the connection.   
It was drinking milk that seemed to heal me.   Two days in the hospital and I was sent home.   


I'm so sorry to learn of how very ill you've been, and glad you're now recovered, especially so as my late partner died of chronic pancreatitis, or more specifically, the sepsis caused by it. All the symptoms you describe sound more like pancreatitis that Covid.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on June 10, 2020, 02:56:49 AM

I'm so sorry to learn of how very ill you've been, and glad you're now recovered, especially so as my late partner died of chronic pancreatitis, or more specifically, the sepsis caused by it. All the symptoms you describe sound more like pancreatitis that Covid.
In NZ they know of two factors that cause acute pancreatitis and that is gall stones, and drinking alcohol.  I don't drink and I didn't have gall stones on the ultrasound examination.  But at the re-examination, they were trying to talk me into having my gall bladder removed.   I said no way for I know this whole episode I've gone through was Covid related.   I'm 70 -80% recovered now, and my strength is improving slowly.  I'm normally pretty fit for my age, so 70 -80% recovered is probably fitter than many others.
 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: APRIL on June 10, 2020, 08:20:02 AM
In NZ they know of two factors that cause acute pancreatitis and that is gall stones, and drinking alcohol.  I don't drink and I didn't have gall stones on the ultrasound examination.  But at the re-examination, they were trying to talk me into having my gall bladder removed.   I said no way for I know this whole episode I've gone through was Covid related.   I'm 70 -80% recovered now, and my strength is improving slowly.  I'm normally pretty fit for my age, so 70 -80% recovered is probably fitter than many others.


There is a third -albeit, rare- cause. Idiopathic, in other words, unexplained. This was what I'd believed my late partner's to have been. However, it turned out to be his second bout, 60 months to the week, from the first, undiagnozed, bout. Now, we know that it's an absolute that alcohol and pancreatitis shouldn't be said in the same breath, but whilst he was only a moderate to light drinker, it was something he shouldn't have been doing, AT ALL. Undoubtedly, he'd have experienced bouts of great pain during that time, but whilst he rush to the doctor for a minor ailment, he ignored it...................and so there it sat, for 60 months -which according to American studies, is always going to be fatal- evolving into chronic, necrotizing, pancreatitis.

I'm really interested to learn that it can be Covid related, especially since hearing that some of the symptoms of Covid in the most poorly patients, are exactly those of pancreatitis. Well done on your recovery. May it continue.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on June 11, 2020, 08:46:02 AM

COVID-19 presenting as acute pancreatitis
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7207100/

OK there is a lot of variability of the symptoms presented in Covid 19, so reading this some symptoms matched mine, but the recovery from the acute pancreatitis part even surprised the doctors. 
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on June 15, 2020, 04:00:58 PM

Went shopping today for the first time in three months.  b....r that for a game of soldiers.  I'm exhausted.  And I'm not doing that again in a hurry if I can possibly avoid it.

And my glasses kept on fogging up over the mask, so I couldn't see what I was doing.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on June 16, 2020, 06:05:55 AM
What kind of mask do you have, Eleanor - the disposable ones or a cloth one?

I've tried both and prefer the disposable ones as they have a wire at the top which you need to press down over your nose and under the eyes. When glasses fog up, breath is escaping over the top (and presumably the space could let droplets in).

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Eleanor on June 16, 2020, 08:58:40 AM
What kind of mask do you have, Eleanor - the disposable ones or a cloth one?

I've tried both and prefer the disposable ones as they have a wire at the top which you need to press down over your nose and under the eyes. When glasses fog up, breath is escaping over the top (and presumably the space could let droplets in).

I've got both, but it was a cloth one.  Thanks for the tip.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on June 16, 2020, 11:35:24 PM
Put the lid down on the toilet before flushing is the latest advice.
Or so I have just read on the BBC news....must be true!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on June 17, 2020, 09:24:53 AM
"Coronavirus 'major breakthrough' - cheap drug reduces deaths among sickest"
https://youtu.be/T7cY8y5gk5M
" a common steroid called dexamethasone, that costs just £5 for an entire course of treatment, has been shown to cut the risk of death by a third for Covid patients on ventilators."  Amazing!

Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on June 17, 2020, 12:39:14 PM
Put the lid down on the toilet before flushing is the latest advice.
Or so I have just read on the BBC news....must be true!


Well----sensible advice, I would think!
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: mrswah on June 17, 2020, 12:39:37 PM
"Coronavirus 'major breakthrough' - cheap drug reduces deaths among sickest"
https://youtu.be/T7cY8y5gk5M
" a common steroid called dexamethasone, that costs just £5 for an entire course of treatment, has been shown to cut the risk of death by a third for Covid patients on ventilators."  Amazing!

Very good news.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on July 13, 2020, 02:54:40 PM

PM says face masks ‘should be worn’ in shops

The prime minister said the government would decide in the next few days if "tools of enforcement" were needed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53388444

Having spent the past 5 months not wearing a face mask in shops, & now that the infection rate & death rate is decreasing, isn't it just common sense that now is the time to start enforcing the wearing of masks when shopping??!! *%87

I'm simply not going shopping if I'll be forced to wear a muzzle, I'll do all my shopping online thankyou very much.

And what about the restaurants & pubs, surely these places should have mandatory face mask rules also?
Just keep pulling your mask up every time you take a fork full, then lower your mask whilst chewing.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Erngath on July 15, 2020, 08:54:51 PM
A good day here.
Restaurants, pubs, hairdressers, cinemas and museums now reopened.
No deaths for the past seven days.
Hopefully the good news continues here and elsewhere in the UK.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Carana on July 17, 2020, 04:20:01 PM
A good day here.
Restaurants, pubs, hairdressers, cinemas and museums now reopened.
No deaths for the past seven days.
Hopefully the good news continues here and elsewhere in the UK.

Good news. Just be aware that deaths obviously lag infections - and many can have no or only very mild symptoms.

I'm staying cautious but also getting out a bit.

My rule of thumb is to have a mask and gel handy when out.

I use the mask when going into a confined space (shop, lift, stairwell... ) or when I notice even a small crowd near me.

When I can't wash my hands, I try to remember to use the gel whenever I touch something outside that could be contaminated.

Sometimes I've forgotten, but then I chided myself to help keep up the reflex (a bit like not clicking on dubious email links).

The risk isn't zero, but I find it a common-sense compromise to what may be a new "normal" for a while.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on August 05, 2020, 09:55:23 PM
Testing positive via an intranasal test is a matter of getting a test done when the virus is in your nose.  That is only in the early stages of the disease.  At the time there was no testing being done, and they just told us to self-isolate, which I did.
In May I did submit to a intranasal test which was negative.  The virus was in my lungs, liver, pancreas, blood vessels by then.  There was no routine test for that, so for two days I was in a general ward in the hospital.

“long-haulers.”  is the term being used.  There is the number of infections, those that die, those that recover, and then there are thousands who have a chronic illness.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

Reading that article sounds just like my case, but I got to the point of just about dying of it.

"Yet support groups on Slack and Facebook host thousands of people like LeClerc, who say they have been wrestling with serious COVID-19 symptoms for at least a month, if not two or three. Some call themselves “long-termers” or “long-haulers.”"

I was aware of the "long hauler" condition even before the term was used on the internet.   I was beginning to wonder if there were people who never get over it.  I imagine there are.  Some of those that have been on these ventilators, who have had strokes, suffered damaged kidneys, pulmonary embolisms and strained hearts will be permanently damaged.

I have a feeling the chronic cases will be an additional burden on the health system.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on August 16, 2020, 12:47:20 PM
If these figures are right (and I believe they will be vindicated by hard research), the Government’s flailing panic killed two people for every three who died of coronavirus – and that is assuming the Covid death figures are not inflated.



PETER HITCHENS: My suspicion is that the wrecking of the economy and the state-sponsored panic of these times has killed more people than Covid ever did

Actually, I have had enough. So should you have had enough. The time has come for real discontent, or there will be no end to our mistreatment and humiliation by this Government.

To call these people incompetent would be to pay them an over-generous compliment. We shall see in a minute what might be a better word.

This is not personal grievance. By great good fortune, I managed a swift holiday a few weeks ago, and was not caught by any sudden Government panic measure, though the holiday itself, in places I love, was a sad shadow of what it would once have been. So my anger about the crazy quarantining of travellers to France is not self-interested.

This heartless smashing of the simple pleasures of thousands is a futile act of spite. Do you know how many people officially died of Covid-19 in France during the past week? Fewer than 80.

In April, official deaths in that country peaked at more than 1,400 in a single day.

These figures of so-called ‘cases’ mean nothing except that the authorities have been looking harder for such cases, and finding them, even though the people involved are usually not ill.

A similar panic in New Zealand concerns an outbreak in which (at the last count) one person was in hospital.

Everything about the figures we are given has been fraudulent and wrong. We will never know how many people were listed as Covid deaths in this country, whose true cause of death was something else.

The rules on classifying them were shockingly lax, and almost no post-mortems were held, so we can never check. But the London Government was last week forced to admit that for some time its official death figures have been a wild overstatement of the facts.

Somehow this colossal event was pushed on to inside pages and way down BBC bulletins, but let me tell you the UK’s total death toll has been revised down from 46,706 to 41,329, a fall of 5,377. That, as you might have noticed, is an error of more than ten per cent, a huge admission.

They were forced into this by the brilliant forensic work of Professor Carl Heneghan and his brave colleagues at Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, which showed that the previous figures were so loose that they could have included car-crash victims who once tested positive for Covid.

Even the fatuous Health Commissar Matt Hancock had to accept that for months, his department had been publishing bilge as if it was information.

I promise you here that, when sanity and respect for facts once again resume their reign in this country (if they ever do), then it will prove to be far worse than that.

My suspicion is that the wrecking of the economy and the state-sponsored panic of these times has killed more people than Covid ever did, and the research on this is piling up too, though the BBC would prefer not to mention that either.

A paper submitted to the Government’s own scientific advisory group, SAGE, estimated that 16,000 people had died up to May 1, thanks to missed medical care following the shutdown of the country. They suggested another 26,000 could die by next March for the same reason.

If these figures are right (and I believe they will be vindicated by hard research), the Government’s flailing panic killed two people for every three who died of coronavirus – and that is assuming the Covid death figures are not inflated.

The scale of this error is so great that the mind turns away from it. Add to it the slow but relentless destruction of the economy and the catastrophe in the schools, and you have even more to weep over.

Bit by bit, people are finding out what a recession actually means in terms of lost jobs, busted businesses and ravaged pensions. This is all now inevitable, and only weeks away. Meanwhile, thousands of teenagers have been robbed of an essential part of their education, which they can never get back.

Thanks to bungles piled on top of folly, they now face stupid injustice, broken hopes and the cold face of bureaucracy. Those responsible for this have a terrible load on their consciences.

Back in March, their famous SAGE committee produced a document, ‘Options for increasing adherence to social distancing measures’. It concluded that we were not yet frightened enough.

It said: ‘A substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened.’ So we needed to be scared into compliance.

It recommended: ‘The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging.’

So the hidden persuaders went to work with their doom-laden warnings, their house arrest, their claims that we are all toxic to each other, and their swollen death tolls.

Now they seek to keep up the anxiety levels by trying to make us wear loose, soggy muzzles.

And here we are, perhaps for ever, unless we begin to show a bit of spirit. Remember how we used to boast about how unflappable we were, with our ‘Keep calm and carry on’ posters.

Well, we are not unflappable. We have been well and truly flapped, and this is the price you pay for it.

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/08/peter-hitchens-my-suspicion-is-that-the-wrecking-of-the-economy-and-the-state-sponsored-panic-of-the.html
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: misty on August 21, 2020, 11:57:56 PM
Quick question here:-
If a person has had a positive Covid19 antibody blood test in the last few months, why do they have to quarantine when they return from France/Spain but not Oldham?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on August 25, 2020, 12:34:47 AM
Quick question here:-
If a person has had a positive Covid19 antibody blood test in the last few months, why do they have to quarantine when they return from France/Spain but not Oldham?
It would be a lot harder to traceback from a foreign country.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on August 25, 2020, 12:46:56 AM
My favourite Doctor.   Have a quick look at this.  https://youtu.be/I2KtnQXwrhg  "Doctor Reacts to CORONAVIRUS MEMES".
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on August 25, 2020, 10:59:59 PM
Olympic great Usain Bolt tests positive for the coronavirus  https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/25/sport/usain-bolt-covid-19-coronavirus-birthday-spt-intl/index.html

I'm sure he will get over it super fast.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: misty on August 27, 2020, 02:22:28 AM
It would be a lot harder to traceback from a foreign country.

Surely the principle of a person having antibodies to Covid19, in the same manner as being vaccinated against it, should negate the need for quarantining wherever they travel?
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on August 27, 2020, 10:20:42 AM
Surely the principle of a person having antibodies to Covid19, in the same manner as being vaccinated against it, should negate the need for quarantining wherever they travel?
Good point.   If the antibody test becomes reliable enough.  There seems to be a problem of detecting Covid 19 antibodies long term.  It seems the level of antibodies drop rapidly and may not be detectable after 4 months. 

Just last week it was shown that a person has been infected twice.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/first-case-covid-19-reinfection-reported-scientists

"A man in his thirties has tested positive again more than four months after his first infection. Source: Breakfast
Genetic tests revealed that a 33-year-old man returning to Hong Kong from a trip to Spain in mid-August had a different strain of the coronavirus than the one he’d previously been infected with in March, said Dr. Kelvin Kai-Wang To, the microbiologist who led the work."
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on August 29, 2020, 03:29:01 PM


(https://scontent-lhr8-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/118627827_1603113689838899_3325640539641398481_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=M78NQt6WciUAX-cSsPF&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-1.xx&oh=ff41c34a16a14adb39a1570d6c0310f7&oe=5F71324A)
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on September 29, 2020, 08:23:15 PM
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report?fbclid=IwAR16xxcnEvxig6MnASpDaMBMgDfm6NsAK5U4Pq44KVDksrD9NPMxOPZm5bs

"First Covid-19 case happened in November, China government records show - report
Earliest case detected on 17 November, weeks before authorities acknowledged new virus, says Chinese media

Coronavirus: live updates
Helen Davidson in Hong Kong
 @heldavidson
Fri 13 Mar 2020 06.39 GMT"
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Geordie on October 17, 2020, 08:18:31 PM
I don't think it is being overegged and I spent 19 weeks shielding as I am clinically extremely vulnerable. Also for younger people there is long covid which appears to be neurological in many cases so could be for life and treatment is not that effective.

Keep safe everyone.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 19, 2020, 10:15:03 PM
Some weird cheap treatments here https://youtu.be/_FqITndW4-U
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Robittybob1 on November 02, 2020, 02:01:54 AM
Have you considered what is happening once the body is able to break up the virus?   I'm thinking while the virus is intact the spike protein would just be interacting with one cell,  but if the virus is disrupted the thousands of spike proteins would be able to interfere with the angiotensin enzymes on thousands of sites.
https://youtu.be/uAc_S_STQRk

OVID-19 Insights: Hypercoagulability Role of the ACE2 Enzyme - Part 1  The Doctor here is very good at explaining the situation.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 22, 2022, 02:28:23 PM

In answer to the opening post.

Yes, it was totally overegged.
Title: Re: Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on February 05, 2022, 10:17:05 AM
CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo completely avoid Johns Hopkins study finding COVID lockdowns ineffective
ABC, CBS, NBC also ignored the anti-lockdown study.


There has been a full-on media blackout of the new study outlining the ineffectiveness of lockdowns to prevent COVID deaths.

According to a Johns Hopkins University meta-analysis of several studies, lockdowns during the first COVID wave in the spring of 2020 only reduced COVID mortality by .2% in the U.S. and Europe.

"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted," the researchers wrote. "In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."

However, the Johns Hopkins study received no mention on any of the five liberal networks this week. According to Grabien transcripts, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS and NBC all ignored the anti-lockdown findings after having spent much of the pandemic shaming red states with minimal restrictions and events deemed by critics as "superspreaders."

It wasn't just the networks avoiding the study. The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Associated Press, Reuters, USA Today, Axios, Politico among other outlets also turned a blind eye to the findings, according to search results.

The researchers – Johns Hopkins University economics professor Steve Hanke, Lund University economics professor Lars Jonung, and special advisor at Copenhagen's Center for Political Studies Jonas Herby – analyzed the effects of lockdown measures such as school shutdowns, business closures, and mask mandates on COVID-19 deaths.

"We find little to no evidence that mandated lockdowns in Europe and the United States had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality rates," the researchers wrote.

The researchers also examined shelter-in-place orders, finding that they reduced COVID-19 mortality by 2.9%.

Studies that looked at only shelter-in-place orders found they reduced COVID-19 mortality by 5.1%, but studies that looked at shelter-in-place orders along with other lockdown measures found that shelter-in-place orders actually increased COVID-19 mortality by 2.8%.

The researchers concluded that limiting gatherings may have actually increased COVID-19 mortality.

"[Shelter-in-place orders] may isolate an infected person at home with his/her family where he/she risks infecting family members with a higher viral load, causing more severe illness," the researchers wrote.

"But often, lockdowns have limited peoples’ access to safe (outdoor) places such as beaches, parks, and zoos, or included outdoor mask mandates or strict outdoor gathering restrictions, pushing people to meet at less safe (indoor) places."

The researchers also examined studies that focused on specific lockdown measures and found that the only intervention that reduced COVID-19 mortality was the closure of non-essential businesses, which reduced mortality by 10.6%, but this effect was likely driven by the closure of bars.

Researchers also pointed out other unintended consequences of lockdowns, such as rising unemployment, reduced schooling, an increase in domestic violence incidents, and surging drug overdoses.

From May 2020 to April 2021, the U.S. recorded 100,306 drug overdose deaths, a 28.5% increase from the 78,056 deaths that were recorded in the previous 12-month period, according to CDC data.

A study from the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice last year found that domestic violence incidents increased 8.1% in the U.S. after lockdown orders were issued.

About 97% of U.S. teachers said that their students have experienced learning loss during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Horace Mann survey last year.

The unemployment rate peaked nationwide at 14.8% in April 2020, but declined to 3.9% in December, which is still slightly higher than the 3.5% rate it was at in February 2020.


"These costs to society must be compared to the benefits of lockdowns, which our meta-analysis has shown are marginal at best," the researchers in the Johns Hopkins University study wrote. "Such a standard benefit-cost calculation leads to a strong conclusion: lockdowns should be rejected out of hand as a pandemic policy instrument."

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