UK Justice Forum 🇬🇧
News and current affairs => The Coronavirus and Covid-19 => Topic started by: Angelo222 on May 16, 2020, 09:08:58 PM
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A horryfying extract from a piece in The Daily Telegraph. If you have the time, read it - as this condemnation of the Government comes from its biggest fans. It is truly shocking.
From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who is International Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph., Evans Pritchard is as right wing as they come, he wrote a book about Bill Clinton and when he left the USA the administration said that's another British Invasion we could have done without.
"I have been silent on Covid-19 for a while. There was little to be gained from harrying the Government once it had abandoned the misadventure of herd immunity and was at least trying to get a grip. Much of the belated media onslaught is reflexive gotcha-journalism (where were they in February when the mistakes were made?), or hides an ideological agenda.
But claims by both Downing Street and Public Health England that they “got it right” cannot be allowed to stand. Nor can the pretence that each stage of the containment policy is being fed out at just right time and at just the right calibration under the Jupiterian guidance of behavioural theorists.
There was never anything to be gained from delaying the lockdown once the brushfire had slipped control due to lack of testing/tracing. Each three days of prevarication meant a doubling of the infection case load. It was to sink deeper into the quagmire. Nor did the SAGE committee ever have a sufficient grasp of the basic facts to fine-tune the timing, let alone to play God.
The facts will out but it is hard to escape the conclusion that this secretive body – neither institutional fish nor fowl, with opaque responsibilities – gravely misjudged the speed of contagion long after the danger was obvious to virologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists across the world, and indeed to anybody paying attention.
Why does it make sense to impose a two-week quarantine on foreign arrivals at this late stage (excluding Ireland and France), rather than having done so when imported cases were first causing an explosion of infections in a virgin host community?
A Covid cardiologist at a top London hospital – friendly to Boris – has been so incensed by the daily charade of bogus omniscience that he vented his spleen in an email to me on Sunday night. It is a poignant indictment, so I pass along a few snippets.
Basically, every mistake that could have been made, was made. He likened the care home policy to the Siege of Caffa in 1346, that grim chapter of the Black Death when a Mongol army catapulted plague-ridden bodies over the walls.
“Our policy was to let the virus rip and then ‘cocoon the elderly’,” he wrote. “You don’t know whether to laugh or cry when you contrast that with what we actually did. We discharged known, suspected, and unknown cases into care homes which were unprepared, with no formal warning that the patients were infected, no testing available, and no PPE to prevent transmission. We actively seeded this into the very population that was most vulnerable.
“We let these people die without palliation. The official policy was not to visit care homes – and they didn’t (and still don’t). So, after infecting them with a disease that causes an unpleasant ending, we denied our elders access to a doctor – denied GP visits – and denied admission to hospital. Simple things like fluids, withheld. Effective palliation like syringe drivers, withheld.”
The public has yet to realise that the great quest for ventilators was worse than a red herring. The overuse of ventilators was itself killing people at a terrifying ratio and behind that lies another institutional failure.
“When the inquiry comes, it will show that many people died for lack of oxygen supply in hospitals, and this led to early intubation,” writes the doctor. “Boris survived because they gave him oxygen. High flow oxygen wasn’t available as a treatment option for all patients.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/12/governments-handling-covid-19-british-disaster/
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The hindsight experts will have field day,trouble is it's probably justified, history imo will judge Johnson has a one trick pony in getting brexit done real governance in this crisis will be seen to be lacking.
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The hindsight experts will have field day,trouble is it's probably justified, history imo will judge Johnson has a one trick pony in getting brexit done real governance in this crisis will be seen to be lacking.
Well said Barrier; but I don't think it is just a case of hindsight proving that the government got much of it wrong. One inept ministerial briefing after another was building a picture which many were picking up on from early days and giving warning about.
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There is nothing to justify. Some people live and some people die, for whatever reason. No Government can ultimately control this. So it would be extremely unfair to expect this.
Where do you want to start? Penalty Points for getting Fat? More Points for being unable to cope? And oh Yes, more points for being Unemployed or Unemployable. That is Society.
Some of us just aren't all that good at anything. This is the Human Condition. We are all everyone's Father, Mother, Sister or Brother. And some of us are better at it than others, but only by the grace of some God or another.
The Corona Virus? I have decided that I am not having it, but only because I have opted out of society. But then I did that a very long time ago, so no odds to me. Same old same old. Stay Away.
I don't like people. And I can't say that I am all that wild about the dog either. Rotten Little Swine. But at least he is nice to me. He looks as though he likes me.
None of this will make any difference to me. I will live or die. But not just yet please God.
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Has anyone found a credible reason as to why the UK and the Netherlands are the only European countries that don't have figures as to how many have recovered?
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There is nothing to justify. Some people live and some people die, for whatever reason. No Government can ultimately control this. So it would be extremely unfair to expect this.
Where do you want to start? Penalty Points for getting Fat? More Points for being unable to cope? And oh Yes, more points for being Unemployed or Unemployable. That is Society.
Some of us just aren't all that good at anything. This is the Human Condition. We are all everyone's Father, Mother, Sister or Brother. And some of us are better at it than others, but only by the grace of some God or another.
The Corona Virus? I have decided that I am not having it, but only because I have opted out of society. But then I did that a very long time ago, so no odds to me. Same old same old. Stay Away.
I don't like people. And I can't say that I am all that wild about the dog either. Rotten Little Swine. But at least he is nice to me. He looks as though he likes me.
None of this will make any difference to me. I will live or die. But not just yet please God.
Of course you're important, never forget that. ;)
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Has anyone found a credible reason as to why the UK and the Netherlands are the only European countries that don't have figures as to how many have recovered?
New Zealand's recovery rate is getting right up there. Is it 96% recovered, 1500 infections so 4% of that is around 60 cases yet to heal.
Yesterday 1433 recovered/1499 confirmed and suspect cases = .95597 or 66 cases yet to recover.
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NZ does seem to be doing well.
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/no-new-cases-covid-19-6
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The Science and Technology Committee has just produced a report on the handling so far.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ten-key-lessons-the-government-must-learn-set-out-in-new-report-11990584
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A horryfying extract from a piece in The Daily Telegraph. If you have the time, read it - as this condemnation of the Government comes from its biggest fans. It is truly shocking.
From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who is International Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph., Evans Pritchard is as right wing as they come, he wrote a book about Bill Clinton and when he left the USA the administration said that's another British Invasion we could have done without.
"I have been silent on Covid-19 for a while. There was little to be gained from harrying the Government once it had abandoned the misadventure of herd immunity and was at least trying to get a grip. Much of the belated media onslaught is reflexive gotcha-journalism (where were they in February when the mistakes were made?), or hides an ideological agenda.
But claims by both Downing Street and Public Health England that they “got it right” cannot be allowed to stand. Nor can the pretence that each stage of the containment policy is being fed out at just right time and at just the right calibration under the Jupiterian guidance of behavioural theorists.
There was never anything to be gained from delaying the lockdown once the brushfire had slipped control due to lack of testing/tracing. Each three days of prevarication meant a doubling of the infection case load. It was to sink deeper into the quagmire. Nor did the SAGE committee ever have a sufficient grasp of the basic facts to fine-tune the timing, let alone to play God.
The facts will out but it is hard to escape the conclusion that this secretive body – neither institutional fish nor fowl, with opaque responsibilities – gravely misjudged the speed of contagion long after the danger was obvious to virologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists across the world, and indeed to anybody paying attention.
Why does it make sense to impose a two-week quarantine on foreign arrivals at this late stage (excluding Ireland and France), rather than having done so when imported cases were first causing an explosion of infections in a virgin host community?
A Covid cardiologist at a top London hospital – friendly to Boris – has been so incensed by the daily charade of bogus omniscience that he vented his spleen in an email to me on Sunday night. It is a poignant indictment, so I pass along a few snippets.
Basically, every mistake that could have been made, was made. He likened the care home policy to the Siege of Caffa in 1346, that grim chapter of the Black Death when a Mongol army catapulted plague-ridden bodies over the walls.
“Our policy was to let the virus rip and then ‘cocoon the elderly’,” he wrote. “You don’t know whether to laugh or cry when you contrast that with what we actually did. We discharged known, suspected, and unknown cases into care homes which were unprepared, with no formal warning that the patients were infected, no testing available, and no PPE to prevent transmission. We actively seeded this into the very population that was most vulnerable.
“We let these people die without palliation. The official policy was not to visit care homes – and they didn’t (and still don’t). So, after infecting them with a disease that causes an unpleasant ending, we denied our elders access to a doctor – denied GP visits – and denied admission to hospital. Simple things like fluids, withheld. Effective palliation like syringe drivers, withheld.”
The public has yet to realise that the great quest for ventilators was worse than a red herring. The overuse of ventilators was itself killing people at a terrifying ratio and behind that lies another institutional failure.
“When the inquiry comes, it will show that many people died for lack of oxygen supply in hospitals, and this led to early intubation,” writes the doctor. “Boris survived because they gave him oxygen. High flow oxygen wasn’t available as a treatment option for all patients.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/12/governments-handling-covid-19-british-disaster/
I agree with all of this. The situation is a mess.
However, I will make some allowances for the government. They hadn't dealt with a pandemic before, the "experts" all say different things, they had to make a lot of decisions in a hurry, the PM became ill, the health Secretary was also ill, so they've had it tough.
Not that I imagined I'd ever feel any sympathy for a Tory government led by Boris Johnson, but these are unusual times!!
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Someone I find sensible is Dr Devi Sridhar
@devisridhar
Professor & Chair of Global Public Health, @EdinburghUni
Medical School. Director of @GlobalHealthGP
. Health governance, financing, policy, systems & security.
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Interesting study from Hong Kong university suggesting masks can have a huge effect in reducing the transmission of the covid-19 virus
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Interesting study from Hong Komng university suggesting maske can have a huge
Huge what?
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Someone I find sensible is Dr Devi Sridhar
@devisridhar
Professor & Chair of Global Public Health, @EdinburghUni
Medical School. Director of @GlobalHealthGP
. Health governance, financing, policy, systems & security.
Prof Devi Sridhar has some YouTube videos. https://youtu.be/CECwGq94dBofor example.
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Prof Devi Sridhar has some YouTube videos. https://youtu.be/CECwGq94dBofor example.
Thanks. So far, she seems very sensible.
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Huge what?
Interesting study from Hong Kong university suggesting masks can have a huge effect in reducing the transmission of the covid-19 virus
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I thought the UK tracing app was coming along, but it seems there are some hiccups along the way, fair enough.
But then...
The U.K.’s COVID-19 Contact Tracing App: Everything You Need To Know
Kate O'Flaherty
Kate O'FlahertySenior Contributor
Cybersecurity
I’m a cybersecurity journalist.
Contact-tracing-UK-privacy
The contact tracing app will track your movements and if someone you’ve come into contact with tests ... - NurPhoto via Getty Images
It’s official—COVID-19 is going to be part of our lives at least until a vaccine is found. As governments seek to find a way to exit lockdown, the U.K. has settled on a strategy of “test, track and trace.”
At the heart of this is the NHS’ contact tracing app, which is being tested on the Isle of Wight this week. If successful, the app is expected to go live across the U.K. in a few weeks. For the app to work, around 60% of the population—or 80% of smartphone users—will need to install it.
But that’s not its only problem. The contact tracing app failed clinical safety and cybersecurity tests and could be a danger to people’s privacy, according to a report published in the Health Service Journal this week.
Meanwhile, questions remain about the involvement of the shadowy Cambridge Analytica-linked analytics firm Palantir in the NHSX app. At the same time, there are fears that growing levels of surveillance will open the door to a dystopian future that no one imagined would arrive so soon.
“Only time and hindsight will tell which countries’ responses to the pandemic were right, but it is fair to say that the U.K.’s approach to automated contact tracing has flaws, both technical and legal,” says Rowenna Fielding, a privacy expert and head of individual rights and ethics at Protecture.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kateoflahertyuk/2020/05/06/the-uks-covid-19-contact-tracing-app-everything-you-need-to-know/#3bf4796dda4d
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Interesting study from Hong Kong university suggesting masks can have a huge effect in reducing the transmission of the covid-19 virus
Do you have a link?
Edinburgh Uni has also done a test using different types of masks.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-21/coronavirus-face-masks-can-reduce-spread-of-person-s-breathe-by-90-new-research-finds/
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Getting back to tracing seems to be a good step forward. The app appears to have a few hiccups, but human tracers have been recruited.
I'm not sure how this would actually work, though.
I get the idea that you get contacted by someone if you have symptoms, who will then attempt to trace who you've been in contact with.
But with an average incubation period of 5 days (up to 2 weeks in some cases, according to the WHO), how is anyone supposed to remember?
What about people who spend time in the company of strangers, e.g., on public transport or elsewhere? How will the tracers find potential "contacts"?
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Do you have a link?
Edinburgh Uni has also done a test using different types of masks.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-21/coronavirus-face-masks-can-reduce-spread-of-person-s-breathe-by-90-new-research-finds/
If you Google hamsters... Corona virus... Hong-Kong University you should find it
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Getting back to tracing seems to be a good step forward. The app appears to have a few hiccups, but human tracers have been recruited.
I'm not sure how this would actually work, though.
I get the idea that you get contacted by someone if you have symptoms, who will then attempt to trace who you've been in contact with.
But with an average incubation period of 5 days (up to 2 weeks in some cases, according to the WHO), how is anyone supposed to remember?
What about people who spend time in the company of strangers, e.g., on public transport or elsewhere? How will the tracers find potential "contacts"?
We've been asked to keep a diary of those we have been in contact with.
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If you Google hamsters... Corona virus... Hong-Kong University you should find it
Ok, will do. I'm guessing you're having problems posting links?
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Ok, will do. I'm guessing you're having problems posting links?
When posting from my phone...yes.
Hers a video worth watching with a different perspective and it looks like some other very interseting videos from the same channel.
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fm.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Ffeature%3Dyoutu.be%26v%3DDKh6kJ-RSMI%26fbclid%3DIwAR2ovMpdpEShnjfrL57NmyaNXWjn8P62QAxPyKYyXE48-eg9Bm-2omMD1hA&h=AT2kWhu560G2NqYWUp5Ec-vql3QSoWiGFJn92_Ncy3LnqNdPlgjGwfd5btrxEAhJU4mIJsnP_med4r6zuq9gzMJ4jXGAWHFPa_ZSp_0Ux785cue6p6aVlvqlfzC2sBEK_Jo
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We've been asked to keep a diary of those we have been in contact with.
Although probably most effective, I doubt that the privacy-invasive tracing would be acceptable in western societies.
A combination of using Google Maps (which I balked at for years, but eventually found useful) and a manual diary updated twice a day, could be useful. Although even then, some people may end up with some explaining to do to their spouse, or teenagers to their parents.
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Ok, will do. I'm guessing you're having problems posting links?
on PC now....masks
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-hamster-masks-coronavirus-scientists.html
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Although probably most effective, I doubt that the privacy-invasive tracing would be acceptable in western societies.
A combination of using Google Maps (which I balked at for years, but eventually found useful) and a manual diary updated twice a day, could be useful. Although even then, some people may end up with some explaining to do to their spouse, or teenagers to their parents.
I love Google maps....I hired a car in central Bangkok and drove to the coast....with the help of Google Maps
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I love Google maps....I hired a car in central Bangkok and drove to the coast....with the help of Google Maps
I used to be horrified by the Big Brother impression I got, but I'm getting used to it. I still have an ancient TomTom which I sometimes use.
An annoying feature of Google Maps is when it tells you in the middle of fast-moving traffic to head north onto xyz street. How the hell am I supposed to know where north is? And there are hardly ever any street names posted where you need them.
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Although probably most effective, I doubt that the privacy-invasive tracing would be acceptable in western societies.
A combination of using Google Maps (which I balked at for years, but eventually found useful) and a manual diary updated twice a day, could be useful. Although even then, some people may end up with some explaining to do to their spouse, or teenagers to their parents.
You could just miss those bits out.
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on PC now....masks
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-hamster-masks-coronavirus-scientists.html
Thanks, Davel. Really interesting.
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I think the TTI concept needs a bit of, erm, refining.
People who have no symptoms of coronavirus must be prepared from June 1 to “do their bit” by self-isolating for 14 days if told they could be a carrier, the Health Secretary warned today.
Writing exclusively in the Evening Standard , Matt Hancock revealed the move to “test and trace” will impose a new social responsibility on the public to stay at home for two weeks even if they feel well.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/matt-hancock-healthy-people-isolate-tracked-a4448376.html
There's no way in hell you can expect people just out of months of confinement to agree to 2 more weeks, extended according to however many more alerts crop up. And how will people get back to work?
IMO:
1. "Soft" tracking will inevitably miss some, but it's better than nothing at this stage.
- Even then, tracers MUST ask the right questions re known / potential symptoms (not always starting with fever & cough); tracking needs to cover realistic pre-symptomatic phase (not necessarily just tracking contacts from a "couple of days" prior to onset; and further quarantine needs to be based on latest info as to continued infectious state post-symptomatic phase (can be more than a few days).
- If a contact gets an alert, they could be anywhere at the time. Trackers need to trace the contacts until they can get home (commuting, picking up kids, shopping...).
2. Testing needs to be ramped up: getting tests to the potential patient when the result is most likely to show positive (seemingly testing too soon can lead to false negatives;, ramping up the lab capabilities to get test results back as soon as possible; and ditto for contacts.
That means a massive amount of tests that can be turned around as quickly as possible to reduce the number of people who may need to self-isolate and how long for.
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You could just miss those bits out.
LOL That could end up with missing rather a lot of contacts and contacts of contacts, depending on hidden lifestyles.
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Good point from Sam Coates
So a contact tracer phones you up, and tells you that someone infected they cannot name might have been near you.
And you and your household must then isolate for 14 days.
And asks for the mobile numbers of everyone you’ve met
Hmm.
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Good point from Sam Coates
So a contact tracer phones you up, and tells you that someone infected they cannot name might have been near you.
And you and your household must then isolate for 14 days.
And asks for the mobile numbers of everyone you’ve met
Hmm.
No point in me doing this at the moment, then.
I take the dog out and go to the supermarket. Oh, and occasionally, go to the chemist to collect my meds.
I pass people, say hello to them, etc, but I don't know who they are, unless thy are my neighbours.
I can't see any point in doing this, unless you go to work, or meet people you know.
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LOL That could end up with missing rather a lot of contacts and contacts of contacts, depending on hidden lifestyles.
I mean you can admit to having contacts but only in the private interview situation so that it stays out of your diary.
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Good point from Sam Coates
So a contact tracer phones you up, and tells you that someone infected they cannot name might have been near you.
And you and your household must then isolate for 14 days.
And asks for the mobile numbers of everyone you’ve met
Hmm.
I'm sure they won't do that unless you test positive.
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I think the TTI concept needs a bit of, erm, refining.
People who have no symptoms of coronavirus must be prepared from June 1 to “do their bit” by self-isolating for 14 days if told they could be a carrier, the Health Secretary warned today.
Writing exclusively in the Evening Standard , Matt Hancock revealed the move to “test and trace” will impose a new social responsibility on the public to stay at home for two weeks even if they feel well.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/matt-hancock-healthy-people-isolate-tracked-a4448376.html
There's no way in hell you can expect people just out of months of confinement to agree to 2 more weeks, extended according to however many more alerts crop up. And how will people get back to work?
IMO:
1. "Soft" tracking will inevitably miss some, but it's better than nothing at this stage.
- Even then, tracers MUST ask the right questions re known / potential symptoms (not always starting with fever & cough); tracking needs to cover realistic pre-symptomatic phase (not necessarily just tracking contacts from a "couple of days" prior to onset; and further quarantine needs to be based on latest info as to continued infectious state post-symptomatic phase (can be more than a few days).
- If a contact gets an alert, they could be anywhere at the time. Trackers need to trace the contacts until they can get home (commuting, picking up kids, shopping...).
2. Testing needs to be ramped up: getting tests to the potential patient when the result is most likely to show positive (seemingly testing too soon can lead to false negatives;, ramping up the lab capabilities to get test results back as soon as possible; and ditto for contacts.
That means a massive amount of tests that can be turned around as quickly as possible to reduce the number of people who may need to self-isolate and how long for.
I agree that , after being locked down for two months (at least), the last thing people will want is self isolation.
Mind you, it's people who have been working who are the most likely to be traced. The rest of us haven't been meeting anyone. if we have, we have just passed them in the street or in the supermarket, and we wont have their mobile phone numbers.
I can't help thinking that our government doesn't think enough about the practicalities of what they propose. It's good in theory----but are people going to do it?
Same with social distancing. If they reduced it from 2 metres to 1 metre, many more businesses would be able to open. I bet they will do that in the end!
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I'm sure they won't do that unless you test positive.
If you ring up with a hacking cough, or any other suspicious symptom, the household will have to isolate (ideally Mr /Ms cough self isolates, unless it's a small kid, and the others self-quarantine)... but if the test result takes a week to process? And if negative, everyone can go back to "normal" life... then there's another alert a few days later, and you start all over again.
That seems likely to happen, but if the turnaround time is fast, less time will be spent in pointless quarantine.
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If you ring up with a hacking cough, or any other suspicious symptom, the household will have to isolate (ideally Mr /Ms cough self isolates, unless it's a small kid, and the others self-quarantine)... but if the test result takes a week to process? And if negative, everyone can go back to "normal" life... then there's another alert a few days later, and you start all over again.
That seems likely to happen, but if the turnaround time is fast, less time will be spent in pointless quarantine.
In NZ they were saying the incidence of the seasonal flu was right down because people were isolating themselves.
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In NZ they were saying the incidence of the seasonal flu was right down because people were isolating themselves.
Where? In NZ?
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Where? In NZ?
yes
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Variation in government responses to COVID-19
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-04/BSG-WP-2020-032-v5.0.pdf
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The UK’s public health response to covid-19
BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1932 (Published 15 May 2020)
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932
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Although the UK briefly dipped behind Spain in the excess death rate, it seems to have regained ground as the worst hit in Europe.
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
Chris Giles' latest:
Update: Following today's official excess deaths figures and hospital data, a cautious estimate for the total UK excess deaths during the coronavirus pandemic up to 2 June is
64,500
Of these 61,920 have happened, the rest are estimates. 1/
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1267833182902259712
Update:
https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0
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The UK Statistics Authority doesn't seem overly impressed by Matt Hancock's "figures".
Sir David Norgrove response to Matt Hancock regarding the Government’s COVID-19 testing data
Dear Secretary of State,
Thank you for your letter of 27 May, in which you described some welcome, though limited, additions to the official data on COVID-19 tests, including a proposed note on methods (not yet published at the time of writing). I am afraid though that the figures are still far from complete and comprehensible.
Statistics on testing perhaps serve two main purposes.
The first is to help us understand the epidemic, alongside the ONS survey, showing us how many people are infected, or not, and their relevant characteristics.
The second purpose is to help manage the test programme, to ensure there are enough tests, that they are carried out or sent where they are needed and that they are being used as effectively as possible. The data should tell the public how effectively the testing programme is being managed.
The way the data are analysed and presented currently gives them limited value for the first purpose. The aim seems to be to show the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding. It is also hard to believe the statistics work to support the testing programme itself. The statistics and analysis serve neither purpose well.
To mention just a few issues in relation to the data as currently presented:
the headline total of tests adds together tests carried out with tests posted out. This distinction is too often elided during the presentation at the daily press conference, where the relevant figure may misleadingly be described simply as the number of tests carried out. There are no data on how many of the tests posted out are in fact then successfully completed. The slides used in the daily press conference do not show the date when the tests were carried out;
the notes to the daily slides rightly say that some people may be tested more than once and it has been widely reported that swabs carried out simultaneously on a single patient are counted as multiple tests. But it is not clear from the published data how often that is the case. Figures for the overall number of people being tested have previously been published but are not available in the published time series;
the top summary presents the number of positive results from diagnostic tests (pillars 1 and 2) alongside the total number of tests across all pillars. This presentation gives an artificially low impression of the proportion of tests returning a positive diagnosis;
more generally the testing figures are presented in a way that is difficult to understand. Many of the key numbers make little sense without recourse to the technical notes which are themselves sometimes hard to follow. This includes the supporting spreadsheets, which, while welcome, make it difficult to extract even basic trends.
With regard to new data that are not currently made available:
test results should include for example key types of employment (e.g. medical staff, care staff), age, sex and location (by geography and place, such as care homes). How many people in what circumstances are infected? Where do they live?
for Test and Trace it is important that a statement of the key metrics to measure its success should be developed systematically, and published, to avoid the situation that has arisen in relation to the testing programme. The statistics will need to be capable of being related to the wider testing data and readily understood by the public, through for example population adjusted maps of hotspots.
I warmly welcome of course your support for the Code of Practice for Statistics. But the testing statistics still fall well short of its expectations. It is not surprising that given their inadequacy data on testing are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.
I also welcome the Department’s willingness to work with colleagues from the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) and I know they have been in touch to discuss how the data and their presentation could be improved and gaps addressed. OSR will be happy to help further in any way they can.
It would be useful to develop a published timetable for the changes that need to be made and for the development of the metrics for the vital new programme of Test and Trace.
I do understand the pressures that those concerned have faced and still face. But I am sure you would agree that good evidence, trusted by the public, is essential to success in containing the virus.
Yours sincerely,
Sir David Norgrove
Related Links:
Sir David Norgrove to Matt Hancock (11 May 2020)
Matt Hancock to Sir David Norgrove ( 27 May 2020)
COVID-19 and the UK Statistical System
https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/sir-david-norgrove-response-to-matt-hancock-regarding-the-governments-covid-19-testing-data/
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Any info on why there hasn't been any info on testing recently?
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What are peoples' feelings about the guidance we've been given. Is it right that there have been loopholes, as in, we should apply our common sense, OR should there have been hard and fast rules with attached penalties if broken?
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What are peoples' feelings about the guidance we've been given. Is it right that there have been loopholes, as in, we should apply our common sense, OR should there have been hard and fast rules with attached penalties if broken?
Well, I would prefer to be left to use my common sense, and I think my only breach of the rules was taking the dog out more than once a day, which caused nobody any harm, since I could easily complete two dog walks without seeing anyone (it's very different now). However, a number of people cannot be trusted to behave sensibly, eg those who were caught jumping off Durdle Door a couple of weeks ago. So, as much as it pains me (I am more of a libertarian than I thought I was), I have to conclude that we probably did need hard rules and hard penalties.
I think the politicians also need to use their common sense. I'm assuming the objective was to prevent contact between people. Where I live, it is far easier to avoid that than it is in a city centre, so a "blanket rule" for every part of the country was inappropriate. Same with that ghastly proposal (fortunately, never implemented) that anyone over 70 shouldnt leave home, when some over 70s are very fit for their age, and some still go to work.
My main worry about this lockdown is that I suspect we now have a fair number of people (of all ages), who believe that , if they step outside their front door, they stand a good chance of dying.
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Well, I would prefer to be left to use my common sense, and I think my only breach of the rules was taking the dog out more than once a day, which caused nobody any harm, since I could easily complete two dog walks without seeing anyone (it's very different now). However, a number of people cannot be trusted to behave sensibly, eg those who were caught jumping off Durdle Door a couple of weeks ago. So, as much as it pains me (I am more of a libertarian than I thought I was), I have to conclude that we probably did need hard rules and hard penalties.
I think the politicians also need to use their common sense. I'm assuming the objective was to prevent contact between people. Where I live, it is far easier to avoid that than it is in a city centre, so a "blanket rule" for every part of the country was inappropriate. Same with that ghastly proposal (fortunately, never implemented) that anyone over 70 shouldnt leave home, when some over 70s are very fit for their age, and some still go to work.
My main worry about this lockdown is that I suspect we now have a fair number of people (of all ages), who believe that , if they step outside their front door, they stand a good chance of dying.
Mrswah, you've clearly thought about that response AND employed a common sense which seems to run parallel with my own. There's little more I can add.
Like you, I'm concerned that there will be those who never set foot outside their doors again. Covid grips in more ways than one and I feel certain that mental health services will be overrun, when this is over, with those who are suffering.
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Mrswah, you've clearly thought about that response AND employed a common sense which seems to run parallel with my own. There's little more I can add.
Like you, I'm concerned that there will be those who never set foot outside their doors again. Covid grips in more ways than one and I feel certain that mental health services will be overrun, when this is over, with those who are suffering.
So, how do you feel about the rules, April?
I hope some more people are going to post-----I'm interested!
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So, how do you feel about the rules, April?
I hope some more people are going to post-----I'm interested!
Mrswah, I can only speak for myself, of course. I'm not a natural rule-breaker -although I can't say that I wouldn't 'fudge' them a little- so I'd follow 99% of them. That's not to say I wouldn't grizzle, mind you, but I think I'd feel more guilty about passing it on, than worried about catching it. (that could be the subject of an interesting poll)
I can't imagine "they" didn't take on board that not everyone would stick to the rules. I'm guessing they relied on enough people like me sticking to them to redress the balance.
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An example of why I thought it mad not to ask for an extension...
The government has written to to medicine suppliers urging them to stockpile drugs for a possible no-deal in EU trade talks at the end of the year – after firms warned that this may not be possible because of the pandemic.
In a letter made public on Monday officials at the health department said the government recognises “that global supply chains are under significant pressure” because of coronavirus, but said the expensive precaution was still necessary.
In June a pharmaceutical industry memo said original stockpiles meant for no deal had been “used up entirely” and that it might not be possible to replenish them before December, when the UK is due to leave the single market.
Boris Johnson refused to extend the Brexit transition period last month despite disruption caused by coronavirus and the fact the UK is facing a cliff edge at the end of the year.
Flagging trade talks mean it is increasingly likely that Britain will leave the single market without any trade agreement at all, with disruption to trade and supply chains expected.
More here:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-no-deal-brexit-government-medicine-stockpiling-a9651991.html
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Trolling the government with a mass slow hand clap is the first form of this doorstep hand clapping ritual that I approve of.
Even though I think all nurses who danced on Tik Tok should be having their pay reduced.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/05/public-urged-to-join-slow-handclap-protest-against-1-nhs-pay-rise
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I think that any government would have struggled with this problem, so I don't think complaining is either fair, useful or constructive. Our health and safety is our responsibility, not just the government's. I find it hard to sympathise with those who moan about lockdown or about missing their holidays.
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I think that any government would have struggled with this problem, so I don't think complaining is either fair, useful or constructive. Our health and safety is our responsibility, not just the government's. I find it hard to sympathise with those who moan about lockdown or about missing their holidays.
Possibly the only post of yours I’ve ever agreed with.
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Possibly the only post of yours I’ve ever agreed with.
I'm just grateful that I have a decent home, enough money to buy food, and a health service that still managed to see me and run tests to make sure I was OK when there were questions about my heart last year. I'm sure there are places on this planet where people don't have those basic needs met. I'm sure our government is doing it's best to keep everyone safe, and the rest is up to us. We need to count our blessings, grit our teeth, and cope with the measures designed to keep us safe.
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Hello all.
Today's figures here give much hope.
543 new cases.
296 people in hospital.
26 in intensive care .
Sadly 6 new deaths.
Vaccinations progressing well....both hubby and I vaccinated six weeks ago and our two elder sons aged 50 and 49 also done.
The baby ....47 still waiting.
Wishing everyone a return to a much better and safer and less conscriptive way of life.
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I have little time for Dominic Cummings, primarily due to his role in Brexit.
However, quite a bit of his input into the Covid Parliamentary Committee sounds pretty much as I'd surmised: denial and utter chaos. A dubious accolade also no doubt shared by quite a few countries.
Streamed version (7hrs+)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBiCqtEOFfU
Twitter snippets via https://twitter.com/BethRigby
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Although Cummings' testimony seems genuine (for the moment), my nose is still twitching.
A whiff of a coup d'état in the making? He has it in for BoJo and Hancock (I've long thought that they were both useless), but had little to say about Gove or a few others that I'd also found somewhere on the scale between useless and devious.
Interesting. Having a look at his Wiki page:
From 2007 to 2014, he was a special adviser to Michael Gove, including the time that Gove served as Education Secretary, leaving when Gove was made Chief Whip in a cabinet reshuffle. From 2015 to 2016, Cummings was director of Vote Leave, an organisation which successfully executed the 2016 referendum campaign for Britain's exit from the European Union.
After Johnson was appointed prime minister in July 2019, Cummings was appointed as Chief Adviser to the Prime Minister.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings
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Mandatory public vaccines in Greece, monthly fines for over 60's who don't comply.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59474808
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Mandatory public vaccines in Greece, monthly fines for over 60's who don't comply.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59474808
Not the only country going down that route, apparently.
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Not everyone's cup of tea, but I find she has a point on this:
Let’s not pretend the anti-mask babies would have lasted a minute in the blitz
Marina Hyde
It’s funny that so many of those who bang on about the ‘war effort’ seem unable to do something minor for the public good
‘Those unable to bring themselves to wear a mask wouldn’t make the first sacrifice for their fellow humans, let alone the ultimate one.’
Tue 30 Nov 2021 13.42 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/30/anti-mask-blitz-war-public-good
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The mask mandate is total nonsense & should be opposed for that very reason.
If the disease is transmissible on public transport & in shops, then it's equally transmissible in gyms, pubs, cafes, cinemas & theatres.
Apparently masks aren't mandated in those settings, not because the virus doesn't spread there but for 'practical reasons'.
So, the only actual logical step to prevent transmission is total lockdown again.
Why don't they just do that if stopping the spread is paramount?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=750ASXEo4X8
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If I were German I'd be refusing the vaccine, not because I'm anti vax but because I'd like to see where they're going with this.
Seriously, what are they going to do?
Throw people in jail & force a needle into them? If so then they're f..king Nazis!
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The mask mandate is total nonsense & should be opposed for that very reason.
If the disease is transmissible on public transport & in shops, then it's equally transmissible in gyms, pubs, cafes, cinemas & theatres.
Apparently masks aren't mandated in those settings, not because the virus doesn't spread there but for 'practical reasons'.
So, the only actual logical step to prevent transmission is total lockdown again.
Why don't they just do that if stopping the spread is paramount?
Hmmm.
Very recently, cases and deaths have picked up again in western Europe. Possibly due to the relaxation of measures and the waning of vaccine immunity.
However, over the summer, both were way down compared to the UK, despite swarms of tourists.
What I noticed in France, which fared well:
- Masks were compulsory everywhere in public, except if sitting down to eat or drink, or e.g. on a walk without anyone else around.
- The EU Covid pass was compulsory in almost every venue (except supermarkets & pharmacies), but included sitting down at an outside café.
- There was a massive wake-up call by Macron early in the summer to get vaccinated: the message was basically, if you don't eat your veg, ok, but then you won't get dessert.
In Belgium, the mask mandate was the same, but there wasn't the same push to get vaccinated and there was no Covid pass. It fared worse than France.
- I was also in a couple of other EU countries, albeit briefly, but in which masks were also compulsory in public settings.
- In England, from what I can gather, the messaging came across as vague and masks weren't compulsory in public settings (or when they were, they weren't enforced).
While not the only country in its approach, my impression is that the UK waits until the last possible moment to enforce any measures (to avoid anything unpopular?) and is constantly playing catch-up.
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If I were German I'd be refusing the vaccine, not because I'm anti vax but because I'd like to see where they're going with this.
Seriously, what are they going to do?
Throw people in jail & force a needle into them? If so then they're f..king Nazis!
I'm not sure how mandatory vaccinations for all would work on the legal front. Some vaccinations are compulsory in quite a few countries for school and for health practioners, as well as for international travel. The difference being is a choice: get the jab or don't go to school, find a different job, don't travel to countries that have requirements.
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I'm not sure how mandatory vaccinations for all would work on the legal front. Some vaccinations are compulsory in quite a few countries for school and for health practioners, as well as for international travel. The difference being is a choice: get the jab or don't go to school, find a different job, don't travel to countries that have requirements.
It will be interesting to see what happens, If public vaccines become law then all employers will be bound by that law presumably & so couldn't actually employ the unvaccinated, since they'd be knowingly employing criminals & possibly spreading the virus risking liability presumably.
But the unvaccinated could still get the dole & buy food so they're not total b........s.
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One demonstrable benefit of the mask mandate.
University of Portsmouth study finds 9,000% increase in face mask litter
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/12F8C/production/_114280777_masks_beach.jpg)
Researchers found two million littered masks were collected across 11 counties
University researchers are urging the government to prevent an "environmental disaster" caused by face mask litter.
A study from the University of Portsmouth found mask litter increased by 9,000% in the first seven months of the pandemic and could have led to further spread of the virus.
During their study, researchers discovered two million littered masks were collected across 11 counties.
A government spokeswoman said it is "vital" waste is correctly disposed of.
Researchers from the university believe the plastic pollution caused by face mask litter could last hundreds of years.
Professor Steve Fletcher, from the University of Portsmouth, said: "Without better disposal practices, an environmental disaster is looming."
The university is now calling on the government to create new policies for enforcing waste disposal.
The study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, was based on findings from March to October 2020 using the Covid-19 Government Response Tracker database and a litter collection app called Litterati.
University researchers warn face masks can act as a 'vector' to spread coronavirus, as well as cause infrastructure problems like blocking sewers and pose a threat to animals, as they can choke on them.
Professor Fletcher added: "The majority of masks are manufactured from long-lasting plastic materials, and if discarded can persist in the environment for hundreds of years. This means they can have a number of impacts on the environment and people."
Lead researcher Dr Keiron Roberts said: "We need to avoid this pandemic litter becoming a lasting legacy.
"Government policies and legislation can have a large impact on the composition of litter. There is a clear need to ensure the use of these items is accompanied with education campaigns to limit their release into the environment."
A spokeswoman from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said: "Our priority is rightly to protect public health during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, but this does not dilute our existing commitments to tackling single-use plastics and combating litter.
"It is vital we all dispose of our waste - including face coverings and other PPE - in the correct manner. Face coverings should be disposed of in normal waste bins."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-59622307
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I'll be interested to see who the Tory backbenchers will turn out to be. My crystal ball is telling me that a large proportion will be from the Brexiteer / ERG crowd.
COVID-19: Tory backbenchers prepare to turn on Johnson over COVID restrictions as PM calls for a vaccine volunteer army
In the Commons, after a six-hour debate MPs will vote on four new regulations: on face masks, isolation rules, COVID passes and NHS compulsory vaccinations, of which the COVID passes are the most fiercely opposed by the Tory rebels.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-tory-backbenchers-prepare-to-turn-on-johnson-over-covid-restrictions-as-pm-calls-for-a-vaccine-volunteer-army-12495295
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From the above:
The latest MP to join the rebellion, "Red Waller" Jo Gideon, whose majority in Stoke on Trent Central is just 670, tweeted: "I will be voting against the introduction of vaccine passports on Tuesday. Their effectiveness is unconvincing and the impact on our hospitality industry and major events businesses, who have already had to sacrifice so much, would be unjustified."
If she'd bothered to check, she just might realise she's wrong.
COVID vaccine passports 'increase jab uptake' in countries with lower coverage, study suggests
Researchers at the University of Oxford found that COVID certification led more people to get vaccinated in France, Israel, Switzerland and Italy - but had no significant impact in Denmark and Germany, where takeup was higher than average.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-vaccine-passports-increase-jab-uptake-in-countries-with-lower-coverage-study-suggests-12495303
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'I alerted the wider world to Omicron - and I believe Britain is overreacting': Doctor Angelique Coetzee, the South African GP who knows more about its effects than anyone, calls for calm despite variant cases spiking 50 per cent in 24 hours.
The UK Government's handling of what Boris Johnson warned will be a 'tidal wave' of Omicron infections verges on hysteria.
With predictions of one million cases by the end of the month and concerns about the NHS being overwhelmed with up to 10,000 hospitalisations per day, I gather there is talk of Christmas again being cancelled and a possible New Year lockdown.
Yet you only have to look at the picture in South Africa, where the world's first known cases of Omicron were spotted, to realise this reaction is out of all proportion to the risks posed by this variant.
And I should know — because I am the doctor who first raised the alarm about Omicron back in November.
The variant appeared to have been circulating in South Africa for some time, having previously been identified in Botswana. It was my duty — both as a GP and as chair of the South African Medical Association — to report my concerns.
Symptoms
I have no regrets about doing so, but I was astonished by the extraordinary worldwide reaction in the days that followed, with Britain and some other European nations imposing heavy travel restrictions on flights from across southern Africa, as well as imposing tighter rules at home on mask-wearing, fines and extended quarantines.
I said then that we didn't know anywhere near enough about Omicron to make such judgments, or impose such policies. Now I find myself even more astonished by the UK Government's latest pronouncements, given what has become apparent about Omicron in the past four weeks.
I have been working with Omicron patients throughout that time, and I think it's safe to say that I know more than most about the effects it can have on human beings.
As a general practitioner for more than 33 years, I am one of the foot soldiers who sees patients first. We clinicians deal day-to-day with real people, not statistical projections, and I can reassure you that the symptoms presenting in those with Omicron are very, very mild compared with those we see with the far more dangerous Delta variant.
Don't just take my word for it. I have seen quite a few Omicron patients who have previously had the Delta variant and they will tell you that, while no one ever wants to get Covid, they feel almost lucky that it was only Omicron they had the second time around.
My first Omicron case, a young man who came into my surgery, initially thought he had been in the sun too long after working outside.
Patients typically present with muscle pain, body aches, a headache and a bit of fatigue. And their symptoms don't seem to get any worse than that. After about five days they clear up, and that's it.
In the part of South Africa where I work, there haven't been many patients admitted to hospital with Omicron, and most have been treated at home, using anti-inflammatories, such as ibuprofen, and low doses of cortisone.
Bear in mind, too, that most of those who contract Omicron here are unvaccinated (only 26 per cent of South Africans are fully vaccinated). While this is certainly not an argument against vaccination — I cannot stress the importance of that enough — it's reassuring to know that even unprotected bodies fight off this variant much more easily than Delta. Current data indicates that the majority of cases admitted to ICUs are unvaccinated people.
In the UK, where the levels of vaccination are much higher, there is even less reason to worry. A Pfizer/BioNTech booster, given after an initial round of either Oxford/AstraZeneca or Pfizer, raises the level of protection, offering 70-75 per cent protection against symptomatic infection.
To date, some 23.5 million Britons have had all three vaccinations, so it's completely over the top to be talking about Plan Cs or lockdowns.
Indeed, I am disappointed by such knee-jerk reactions. They bear no relation to what we're seeing in surgeries in South Africa, where people rarely even discuss Omicron. As one Twitter user commented: 'Covid's become a UK neurosis.'
Of course, your Government cannot afford to be complacent. According to the UK Health Security Agency, ten people have so far been hospitalised with the variant in England, and Omicron is expected to become the dominant coronavirus in the capital in the next 48 hours.
Milder
On a visit to a London vaccination clinic yesterday, Boris Johnson dismissed the idea that it is 'somehow a milder version of the virus', and revealed that at least one person is confirmed to have died with Omicron.
Even one death is one too many. But will there be many more? Our experience in South Africa suggests not.
While Covid-19 admissions are rising sharply in more than half of our nine provinces, deaths are not rising as dramatically and neither is the average length of time people stay in hospital.
Admittedly, our laboratories do not carry out genetic sequencing for every death, so we do not know how many Covid-related deaths can be attributed to Omicron and how many to other variants.
But yesterday there were only 11 Covid-related deaths in South Africa, far fewer than the 578 weekly average reported at Delta's peak.
If Omicron really were such a deadly variant, we would expect the numbers to have shot up, yet that simply isn't happening here.
This makes it all the more peculiar to see what's happening in the UK. This huge over-reaction is scaring people unnecessarily, and if your Government does decide go to for a hard lockdown in the New Year, that could end up doing far more harm than good.
That is because Omicron could potentially be of great help to us — which is certainly not something you could say about the Delta variant.
Panic
A hard lockdown would slow the process of Omicron making its way through the population and allowing people to develop the vital antibodies which will move your population towards 'herd immunity'.
The next variant that comes along might be slower spreading but more severe, and so we will need all the help we can get from such natural immunity.
That can only be of value to us all — unlike restrictive measures that hit the economy hard and will bring about more hardship and poverty, with no gain beyond satisfying the politicians' need to be seen to be doing something.
So my message to Boris and his ministers is this: stay calm. Take it day by day and do not panic people, because that will only end in chaos. You are already seeing problems with the NHS vaccination booking system following the Prime Minister's address to the nation of an accelerated booster plan on Sunday.
In the fight against Covid, as in life generally, it's important to pick your battles, and in over-reacting to Omicron we are in danger of missing out on the benefits of a variant which could be a friend rather than a foe.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html
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There doesn't appear to be enough data about this Omicron variant yet: it does seem to be highly contagious, but could be milder... or perhaps not. I guess we'll know more in a week or two.
However, I really don't see the big deal in the so-called Plan B restrictions (I've been living with them as a blessed alternative to months in lockdown).
Smallish restaurants have been moaning, but it's no more time-consuming to have a Covid pass ready when a waiter asks if you've booked a table.
I don't like wearing a mask any more than the next person, but I've just got used to it if I'm going into a confined space. A pain for cashiers and other shop employees, but the sooner people stop moaning about their individual freedoms and collectively make an effort to help get rid of Covid, the faster we'll be able to go back to more or less normal lives.