Dr Tim Pearce seems to know what he’s on about:
7 THINGS WE MUST STOP SAYING ABOUT THE CORONA VIRUS
1. “This virus is being blown totally out of proportion. More people suffer and die from the flu and accidents and other medical issues nobody talks about.”
There are two dangerous flaws in this view.
As of today, there are 600 proven cases in the UK. The real number is likely to be >6000 cases due to a lack of testing. What’s worse is the rate that the number is likely to increase EXTREMELY fast- in fact, it will probably double or more every week.
If it keeps spreading at the same rate, it will reach ~100 000 cases in 4 weeks, and 1.5 million in 8 weeks! You cannot compare it to stable problems. This problem is exploding in scale at an exponential rate, not staying the same.
- The second big problem with this is that it is actually irrelevant what else kills people because this problem is just being ADDED to those other problems. Our risk is COMPOUNDED with other risks, not EQUAL to how things were before the outbreak.
Worse still, all the old issues still have to be dealt with by a healthcare system in collapse, and many people without the virus will die due to the collapsing system.
2. “It’s not that different to flu”
Wrong! This situation is so very different from flu for the following reasons…
-It’s a new virus, so 100% of us can catch it.
-there’s no vaccine and no chance of getting one soon.
-there’s no treatment proven to work.
- It’s spread WAY easier than most flu cases, each person passing it on to 2-3 other people instead of 1.2 due to the structure of the virus and how resilient it is.
- It kills 10 x the percentage of people of the average flu outbreak and in some places (Italy) doctors are reporting it is closer to 80x more lethal than average flu. I suspect these numbers are a distortion, but we do not yet know for sure.
3. “Only a low percentage of people die compared with SARS which was 10%, and we all got through that well!”
This assertion ignores the impact of the rate of spread- this illness may kill a lower percentage of people infected, but will still kill many times more people. Why?
The number of people getting infected is going to be MUCH higher. 1% of 7 billion people is 70 million people (!) who could die as it spreads. Only 8000 people caught SARS… and 800 died. We are already WAY passed this number with this outbreak and it is NOT slowing down- it’s speeding up.
4. “It’s not that lethal to the young and healthy, so we shouldn’t worry”.
I’ve seen it said as a reassuring fact that only a 0.2% chance of death in middle-aged and younger people. This is 1 in every 500 productive people. IF this disease becomes part of the new normal, we will ALL lose people we know in the prime of their lives. Once again, the hidden factor is the degree of spread that is possible- if this was easily contained we would not have to worry about 0.2% of a small number, but if everyone is going to get this, this number is extremely worrying. If it becomes widespread this is enough to make it one of the most common ways for younger people to die.
5. “Only old people die from it, so no point worrying if you are not old”
Apart from the fact that these are our parents and grandparents who also deserve our concern, 15% of people get seriously ill and this is FAR worse than a cold for many young people. It is way worse getting the WORST illness you have ever had right about when the system is collapsing as everyone else is ill.
There is also a concern that it could cause permanent lung scarring in those who survive- this could cause lifelong problems.
6. “We’re all going to get it anyway, so no point worrying.”
I have even seen doctors says this… This idea fails to appreciate the value of reducing the spike in cases of a rapidly spreading disease. This spike will cause a collapse of the healthcare system. In Italy, they are already having to choose between people based on their age who gets to go to ITU and who dies… resources matter. Delaying the spread will save lives even if you get it later.
7. “As long as ‘old’ people stay out of large public gatherings it will keep them safe and we can carry on...”
This idea really scares me because it shows a misunderstanding of how to handle the threat- it smells like a political statement designed to reassure without taking any economic risks.
Our number one enemy is the R0- the RATE of contagion. It does not matter what age the crowd is- the crowd all go home to families and grandparents and the damage is still done. Any contagion is a problem as it introduces the virus into new communities which then spread from person to person.
So what should we do?
I believe all efforts need to go on reducing the rate of contagion- it’s really our only real defence. If we could get the R0 to less than 1 we would beat it- this is unlikely, but getting it close to 1 will hugely ease the burden on healthcare and save lives.
We should:
-Keep our distance from each other, no handshakes or hugs.
-Cancel large events
-The government should proactively close schools in communities where ANYONE gets sick in that community. This is well known to be one of THE most effective ways of reducing community spread.
-Wash hands and surfaces each time they are touched by different people.
-Try not to touch your face.
-Wash your phone- they are filthy.
-Take vitamin D and Zinc to reduce risk and improve defences.
-Avoid crowded places.
-Do not soldier on if you get sick- stay at home even if it’s mild.
-Stop smoking- this is possibly a major factor in the death rate.
-Do not spread reassuring conspiracy theories or attack the media. There are only two things you need to know.
The percentage of people who get seriously ill (15%) or die (1-3%) and the rate of transmission R0 (currently about 2-3 people catching it from each infected person).
You can ignore the media when you know these numbers are low.
...Until then every individual can make a difference by taking it seriously.
I think people need to know- please share if you agree.
