what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[ShiningInLuz]

My post above says to six places... You have made the massive error that the probabilities in this case don't add up to 100%...you can keep making your pathetic little sniping remarks but if the mods want to keep the thread on topic I would suggest anymore of your sniping remarks are removed

Oh dear.

Here is a clue for you.  Think about it.

Your knowledge of statistics is woeful.  Whereas I had to use statistics at university for years.

In fact, the very first book on a long list of books I was obliged to read before entry was on statistics.  It was most engrossing.

I suspect, but cannot prove, that I know more about statistics than any moderator on this forum.

Perhaps that is why my posts are allowed to stand?

There is a big difference between sniping and the truth.

[slartibartfast]

I've never heard that expression before.

Permutations and Combinations.

[Robittybob1]

Oh dear.

Here is a clue for you.  Think about it.

Your knowledge of statistics is woeful.  Whereas I had to use statistics at university for years.

In fact, the very first book on a long list of books I was obliged to read before entry was on statistics.  It was most engrossing.

I suspect, but cannot prove, that I know more about statistics than any moderator on this forum.

Perhaps that is why my posts are allowed to stand?

There is a big difference between sniping and the truth.

Without a doubt I can tell you do know a lot about statistics.    I think what Davel has described is the odds of picking the 6 Lotto numbers in the right order.

[Robittybob1]

certainly rob...it really is the most basic statistics taht many children would understand.
Picking the first ball from 49 means you have a one in 49 chance of being correct....that leaves 48 balls so the odds are 1 in 48 of choosing the right one...now thers 47...so its a one in 47...then 46..45 and 44


so the odds of chosing 6 from 49 is
49x48x47x46x45x44...or 49 factorial to 6 places

... snip ....

I think you are about 50% correct.

[Mr Gray]

Without a doubt I can tell you do know a lot about statistics.    I think what Davel has described is the odds of picking the 6 Lotto numbers in the right order.

sorry rob you are wrong..ive described picking 6 from 49...in any order...you dont need to know alot about statistics to understand that

[Mr Gray]

I think you are about 50% correct.

im 100% correct...i can provide  acite if you wish

[Robittybob1]

im 100% correct...i can provide  acite if you wish

well do it.

[Mr Gray]

well do it.

you are absolutely correct rob...my formula is for the correct order

[ShiningInLuz]

as you dont realise that the sum of the probabilities deed to add up to 100% it would appear you dont know as much as you think.  I think you over estimate your abilities in many areas

Don't worry.

As a scientist I had to have a razor-sharp understanding of how probabilities add up.

Hitch Hikers Guide to the Universe.  Douglas Adams.  Rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty.

As per the MBM case.

[Vertigo Swirl]

IMO Five years before SY released the e-fits for him. He didn't seem too interested in all those golden hours.

Can you be a bit more specific?  Did he know about Smithman and his location on the night of Madeleine’s abduction?  Because if he didn’t then what use is going looking for a man carrying a child in Pdl, days, weeks , months or years later?   

[Robittybob1]

sorry rob you are wrong..ive described picking 6 from 49...in any order...you dont need to know alot about statistics to understand that

Well look, tell me how you would calculate the odds of selecting the six numbers in the right order then?  49 balls to choose from.  And each ball is not used again.

you are absolutely correct rob...my formula is for the correct order

I thought so.  You have to divide that number by 6 factorial as I understand.

[Mr Gray]

Don't worry.

As a scientist I had to have a razor-sharp understanding of how probabilities add up.

Hitch Hikers Guide to the Universe.  Douglas Adams.  Rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty.

As per the MBM case.

you think you do....but you dont understand that all probabilities have to add up to one.....you think humans have as good a sense of smell as dogs....and other points wher eyou have been totally wrong...so imo...you are not as smart as you think you are.

In my experience there are some intelligent posters on here,,...but I wouldnt put you in the top 6. If you wish to crow about your mind...expext some criticism

[Vertigo Swirl]

Don't worry.

As a scientist I had to have a razor-sharp understanding of how probabilities add up.

Hitch Hikers Guide to the Universe.  Douglas Adams.  Rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty.

As per the MBM case.

Can you please explain to those of us who are not statistical genii like yourself what part of what Davel wrote is wrong and why?

[Mr Gray]

Well look, tell me how you would calculate the odds of selecting the six numbers in the right order then?  49 balls to choose from.  And each ball is not used again.
I thought so.  You have to divide that number by 6 factorial as I understand.

perhaps I should have googled it first like i suspect someone else did

[Robittybob1]

Don't worry.

As a scientist I had to have a razor-sharp understanding of how probabilities add up.

Hitch Hikers Guide to the Universe.  Douglas Adams.  Rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty.

As per the MBM case.

Well do you agree that the sum of all the probabilities of the possible events (expressed as a percentage) must add up to 100%. 

Can you please explain to those of us who are not statistical genii like yourself what part of what Davel wrote is wrong and why?

Could you quote the bit in concern?