what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Eleanor]

You said you supposed I  should I stick to head and tails. That you just worked that one out?

It's not that long if you're being honest.

Ah well, 

That isn't what I said, so don't play word games with me.

[slartibartfast]

https://stats.seandolinar.com/statistics-probability-vs-odds/

[Robittybob1]

Yes it is... At least more than 20 %

In fact 1 is 5 times more than 20%.

[Robittybob1]

And btw you forgot to add the 1, it's actually 5.  Five apartments, not four.

Who's was the 5th apartment?  Isn't the odds 3/1?  Three apartments the dogs didn't alert and in one they did.

[Mr Gray]

In fact 1 is 5 times more than 20%.

one what...your post doesnt make sense

[Robittybob1]

That's a 3/1. I thought you would have learnt for  VS's mistake. There were five apartments, only ONE of a missing child. The other four, had no children missing from them. 5 apartments = 4/1.  4+1 =5. Get it yet?

Are you including Murat's place as well?

[Robittybob1]

one what...your post doesnt make sense

1 = 100% of itself.

[Mr Gray]

1 = 100% of itself.

if I say abduction is around 20%...whats the significance of 1.....apart from they all have to add up to 100%

100% doesnt always equal 1.....it can equal many things depending on context...in an exam 100% might be 100...depending on the number of questions

[Robittybob1]

if I say abduction is around 20%...whats the significance of 1.....apart from they all have to add up to 100%

100% doesnt always equal 1.....it can equal many things depending on context...in an exam 100% might be 100...depending on the number of questions

But each question is then just 1% of the total.  Add all the percentages and you'd get 100% .
100 times 1% = 1 or 100/100.

[Robittybob1]

I don't know it just says five apartments. 'Five apartments at a complex in Praia Da Luz' that's 4/1 if it only alerted to ONE.
https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_GRIMES.htm
If you include Murat's and the McCann's villa that's 6/1. That's seven properties in total and the dog only chose ONE (excluding the McCann's soft toy). That's very bad news for those people who are solely invested in the ONE stranger abduction.  Those odds alone suggest the opposite considering it was a dead body odour detecting dog BUT there's always the one.

It would be interesting to know who's was the 5th apartment to account for this statement: "CANINE SEARCHES AT FIVE APARTMENTS AT PRIA DA LUZ.

All five apartments were searched using the EVRD. The only alert indications
were at apartment 5a, the reported scene."

Very interesting indeed.

There was one place where rotten meat was found in the fridge was that the 5th apartment?

[Mr Gray]

But each question is then just 1% of the total.  Add all the percentages and you'd get 100% .
100 times 1% = 1 or 100/100.

i think we all understand such basics...not sure what you are trying to say.....100% attendance might be 150 days...then 100% equals 150....not one

[Robittybob1]

i think we all understand such basics...not sure what you are trying to say.....100% attendance might be 150 days...then 100% equals 150....not one

"100% attendance might be 150 days"  no "100% attendance is everyday for 150 days, for the whole event is 150 days long.
I was trying to clarify what you meant by "Yes it is... At least more than 20 %",  20% of what?

[Mr Gray]

"100% attendance might be 150 days"  no "100% attendance is everyday for 150 days, for the whole event is 150 days long.
I was trying to clarify what you meant by "Yes it is... At least more than 20 %",  20% of what?

its pretty obvious.....there are 3 possibilities...each one with  a percentage possibility

[Robittybob1]

While I agree it may be interesting, just as long as there were five apartments searched, it wouldn't effect the odds. I wonder whose it was?

Gunit, or anyone, any ideas?


There was one place where rotten meat was found in the fridge was that the 5th apartment?  That's the one my money is on?

So you are basically implying the more apartments (without an alert) they searched the higher the odds of it not being an abduction whether or not the apartments checked have any relationship to the case.  Because where does the 5th apartment fit into the scenario?

[Robittybob1]

its pretty obvious.....there are 3 possibilities...each one with  a percentage possibility

Have you gone back to the discussion of the three buckets of possibilities that add up to 100%?

And you've taken at stab in the dark and declared "Yes it is... At least more than 20 %", that is you estimate the probability of an abduction is more than 20%.  Did I get it right now?