what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[slartibartfast]

its about odds...probabilities...not specifically bookies

Odds and probabilities are different.

[Mr Gray]

Odds and probabilities are different.

I never said they were the same... More arguing for arguing sake.. What are the odds or probability of a post on topic

[Robittybob1]

are you arguning for arguing sake...my thread never mentioned bookies...its about probability...and the fact that all three probabilities have to add uo to one

Had you used the term "probabilities" in the OP we wouldn't have had 30 (correction 58) pages on "odds" in the thread.

[Robittybob1]

From Wikipedia on Odds:

"In statistics, the odds for or odds of some event reflect the likelihood that the event will take place, while odds against reflect the likelihood that it will not. In gambling, the odds are the ratio of payoff to stake, and do not necessarily reflect exactly the probabilities."

Well Davel how are you going to divide up the the probability of the three possible board scenarios occurring?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Had you used the term "probabilities" in the OP we wouldn't have had 30 (correction 58) pages on "odds" in the thread.

I don’t think Davel started this thread actually.  It was started on his behalf, which is a very irritating habit on this forum, imo.

[Mr Gray]

From Wikipedia on Odds:

"In statistics, the odds for or odds of some event reflect the likelihood that the event will take place, while odds against reflect the likelihood that it will not. In gambling, the odds are the ratio of payoff to stake, and do not necessarily reflect exactly the probabilities."

Well Davel how are you going to divide up the the probability of the three possible board scenarios occurring?

First...the thread has absolutely nothing to do with ganmbling so i dont understand why you continue to raise an irrelevant point...you are derailing the thread.

Its concerned with statistics and in statistics odds and probabilities are basically the same.

Ive already quoted my understanding of the three possibillities...many..many times...and they add up to 100% which they must.

Niklas has only expalined two and the point i am making is that if he expalins the third as he should...it will highlight the fallacy of his argument

[Mr Gray]

Had you used the term "probabilities" in the OP we wouldn't have had 30 (correction 58) pages on "odds" in the thread.

I didnt start the thread ...John did...with an edited version of my post. This is the problem with mods editing posts.....which words of the OP are mine and which are Johns

[Eleanor]

John sifting out and posting interesting comments is not a bad thing.  But The OP can't always be held responsible for starting A Thread.

[Vertigo Swirl]

John sifting out and posting interesting comments is not a bad thing.  But The OP can't always be held responsible for starting A Thread.

Perhaps there should be a rule that when this happens it is made clear in the opening post that that is what has happened.  Also, Eleanor, could you please let me know what offensive language I have used recently to merit a warning.  Genuinely interested as unless I know I won’t be able to learn from my mistakes.  Thanks.

[Mr Gray]

John sifting out and posting interesting comments is not a bad thing.  But The OP can't always be held responsible for starting A Thread.

its annoying when mods edit posts and completely change their meaning...it happens too often

[The General]

its annoying when mods edit posts and completely change their meaning...it happens too often

Agreed.

[Robittybob1]

First...the thread has absolutely nothing to do with ganmbling so i dont understand why you continue to raise an irrelevant point...you are derailing the thread.

Its concerned with statistics and in statistics odds and probabilities are basically the same.

Ive already quoted my understanding of the three possibillities...many..many times...and they add up to 100% which they must.

Niklas has only expalined two and the point i am making is that if he expalins the third as he should...it will highlight the fallacy of his argument

Go past criticism and start providing answers please.

"Well Davel how are you going to divide up the probability of the three possible broad scenarios occurring?"

We both know they add up to 100% but how do you split that 100% up?

[Mr Gray]

Go past criticism and start providing answers please.

"Well Davel how are you going to divide up the probability of the three possible broad scenarios occurring?"

We both know they add up to 100% but how do you split that 100% up?

Again I already have done many times and will do again later when I'm not busy

[Robittybob1]

Again I already have done many times and will do again later when I'm not busy

We will be waiting.

[Mr Gray]

We will be waiting.

As have said... I've done it many times before..
Parents not suspects... No indication if any involvement and I think most will agree it's highly unlikely they are criminally involved.  Therefore odds 1 %

Woke and wandered.... According  to the archiving despatch by the  PJ... Who have more evidence than we do... Was deemed highly unlikely.    So 5%


That leaves abduction... Or removal of a body by a stranger... at 94%