what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Vertigo Swirl]

The ONE child to be abducted by a stranger abroad since Ben Needham's abduction is Madeleine.

So you keep saying, yes, and...?  So what? 

[Vertigo Swirl]

It was you who was the first to ask The General about the incredible odds. At least now I hope you understand them. That's all!

I believe this was my question to the General

“Actually the chances of a child being abducted by a stranger is put at 300,000 to one.  It is extremely rare.  But the fact is, it does happen.  Just as winning the lottery happens with almost weekly regularity.  Given how rare it is, why would anyone expect their child to be taken from an unlocked apartment, or lock the door to make sure it didn’t happen?”

Sceptics lament the carelessness of the McCanns for not only leaving their kids alone but also, even worse, leaving them alone in an unlocked apartment.  These same sceptics also ridicule the idea that anyone would have entered the unlocked apartment to harm or take a child because of the huge odds against it happening.  So there is a disconnect there, do you see what I’m saying?  Nothing to do with believing in the ONE or whatever mantra you wish to keep repeating today.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Sorry, my mistake. "What incredible odds?  Have you calculated them?" Reply #4773

Yawn.

[Robittybob1]

odds and statistics are funny things...if I play roulette...black has come up 19 time in a row...the odds of black coming up 20 times in a row is about 250000 to one...so on that 20th spin...what are the odds of black coming up again... on  a perfectly true roulette wheel

Just less than 50:50
"The house average or house edge or house advantage (also called the expected value) is the amount the player loses relative for any bet made, on average. If a player bets on a single number in the American game there is a probability of ​1⁄38 that the player wins 35 times the bet, and a ​37⁄38 chance that the player loses his bet. The expected value is:

−1 × ​37⁄38 + 35 × ​1⁄38 = −0.0526 (5.26% house edge)
For European roulette, a single number wins ​1⁄37 and loses ​36⁄37:

−1 × ​36⁄37 + 35 × ​1⁄37 = −0.0270 (2.70% house edge)" 

Between 2 - 5% on average will go to the house.

[Angelo222]

perhaps it is...we dont know..or perhaps they have more vidence than we do...im happy to acceot woke and wandered but think she would have been seen by someone if she was wandering about

In normal circumstances one would have thought so but apparently Jane Tanner walked right past Gerry and Jez and neither saw her...go figure? 🤔

[Lace]

In normal circumstances one would have thought so but apparently Jane Tanner walked right past Gerry and Jez and neither saw her...go figure? 🤔

If both were facing down the road engrossed in conversation,   how would they see Jane?

[Angelo222]

In any abduction it is a known fact that it is far more likely to be a parent or a family member, stranger abduction is extremely rare and that is why it gets so much publicity when it does happen.

[slartibartfast]

its 50/50...my money is in my pocket.

Not quite.

[Mr Gray]

Not quite.

im well aware of zero and double zero...the point I was making is taht if red comes up 19 times in a row...on a perfectly true wheel ...although the odds of 20 reds in arow are around 250,000 to one ...the chances of red coming in a twentieth time on this occasion are 50/50 approx....some find that hard to beleive...and lose a lot of money

[Admin]

Strictly speaking you cannot abduct a deceased person so if a child was run over and killed and the carried off then the charge would not be abduction.

[Angelo222]

Strictly speaking you cannot abduct a deceased person so if a child was run over and killed and the carried off then the charge would not be abduction.

This has got me thinking about the evidence again and especially the Smith's sighting down beside the medical centre. IMO that was Maddie they saw being carried by an as yet unidentified man that night and most probably was on his way to that centre but unfortunately it was closed. He must have had a vehicle nearby which he most likely returned to. What happened next is anyone's guess.

[Mr Gray]

Not quite. It can never be 50/50 as long as green is on the wheel.

Take my advice, stick to head and tails for 50/50.

Catcha you out again later. 

I said 50/50 approx...i know what im talking about...someone i know won 3 million in one night at roulette...thats quite unusual

[ShiningInLuz]

Now should I believe that?  I accept people make mistakes, jokes, statements in jest, typos, I don't call them lies. 
I have a habit of forgetting to write "NOT" in a sentence, giving my sentence the wrong meaning.  I don't count that as a lie.

Like 49 factorial  - not a lie just a dumb mistake.  I know now what it is, in NZ at least they drawn 6 balls to select the winning numbers, not all the balls, but just 6.  49*48*47*46*45*44 = 10,068,347,520  even that is too high.
On your card you choose 6 numbers so there must be  a division somewhere to.

Presumably in NZ you select 6 numbers on your ticket?

If so you clearly have 6 chances of getting the first number correct.  So that's 49/6, not 49/1.

You then have 48 balls in the pot, and 5 remaining numbers on your slip.  So that's 48/5, not 48/1.

Then continue the (boring) iteration a further 4 cycles.

Do we care?  The only thing I'm learning here is which posters don't understand probabilities and statistics.

[slartibartfast]

The best way to use probability and statistics in this case IMO, are to judge innocent reasons for the anomalies and assign a probability. The probability of an innocent reason for all anomalies is the product of the individual probabilities.

[Mr Gray]

Presumably in NZ you select 6 numbers on your ticket?

If so you clearly have 6 chances of getting the first number correct.  So that's 49/6, not 49/1.

You then have 48 balls in the pot, and 5 remaining numbers on your slip.  So that's 48/5, not 48/1.

Then continue the (boring) iteration a further 4 cycles.

Do we care?  The only thing I'm learning here is which posters don't understand probabilities and statistics.

I think it's clear who understands based on the replies to the other thread