Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?

[barrier]

3 weeks lock down.
Probably more than that.

I'd just like to thank the Chinese & over 60's for ruining 2020 for everyone else.
Great job.

Its gonna extend far beyond,there's going to be a financial reckoning the like never seen before.

[Carana]

To be fair, every government has to face the dilemma of how to balance public safety versus the economy.

Literally shutting down the economy via a lockdown was unthinkable to many for quite some time, but now the consequence of dithering is likely to have an even greater impact on both.

[Robittybob1]

To be fair, every government has to face the dilemma of how to balance public safety versus the economy.

Literally shutting down the economy via a lockdown was unthinkable to many for quite some time, but now the consequence of dithering is likely to have an even greater impact on both.

We will be in a 4-week lock-down starting tomorrow night.   I get the feeling there will be some resistance to it.  On the news there were people flouting the lock-down in the UK.   Maybe the same will happen here. 

The scientists were talking about eliminating the virus from the country.  I just worry that will mean we are still going to be liable to another outbreak.  Hurry up with a vaccine.

[Mr Gray]

We will be in a 4-week lock-down starting tomorrow night.   I get the feeling there will be some resistance to it.  On the news there were people flouting the lock-down in the UK.   Maybe the same will happen here. 

The scientists were talking about eliminating the virus from the country.  I just worry that will mean we are still going to be liable to another outbreak.  Hurry up with a vaccine.

That's not the way I see it. The only way to beat the virus is to build immunity...that means some need to catch it but not at a rate that the NHS can't cope with. If we simply lock ourselves away then it will be their when we come out. I do agree with the lockdown...to slow the spread but it can't be stopped.

[Brietta]

Intense contact-tracking right at the beginning (reminds me of a Holmes2-type of approach) almost nipped it in the bud. From memory, via other reading, they were missing one "person of interest", who then went to a massive church service (over 1000 people), and that was it. It spiralled out of control.

Some Asian countries had gained quite a bit of experience via having had to deal with previous epidemeics (e.g., SARS) which gave them a head start in how to deal with it, and the public were primed to heed social distancing measures.

A documentary on how the Chinese have lived through it so far. Obviously, being cooped up at home hasn't been fun, but (to my admittedly untrained eye) they seem to have it under control now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU

Absolutely astounding the number of infections for which that one person who slipped through the net was responsible.  Only one infected person was responsible for thousands of positive contacts showing how viciously contagious this virus is.

It can also be controlled if managed properly.
China is now in the position of having the capability of sending aid to Europe including test kits as well as experts.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/20/c_138898996.htm

Russia is also providing aid ... https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/russia-sends-aid-to-italy-to-fight-virus-outbreak/1775227 and Cuba is also in the position of being able to send assistance ... https://mronline.org/2020/03/23/cuban-doctors-travel-to-italy-to-help-fight-covid-19/

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is sending aid to Iran ... https://www.msf.org/msf-responds-coronavirus-covid-19-iran so at least there is an awareness that we are all in it together and Britain is usually one of the first to respond in an international emergency.

Not this time round though.
I am angry that when the number of people infected by just one as per the Korean example posted by you, Carana hits us there will not be sufficient respirators for us all and we will die unnecessarily as a result.  I am angry there are not enough testing kits even to test the NHS medics who will be dealing with us.
We don't even have enough hand sanitiser ... https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11094509/coronavirus-buy-hand-gel-sanitiser-where/ even for medics ... https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11094509/coronavirus-buy-hand-gel-sanitiser-where/

I think government have been caught on the back foot and just have not been prepared for this as they should have been; it isn't only down to 'panic buying' that we do not have the basics to deal with a pandemic.
Now we just have to sit back and and wait to see who comes through it all and what kind of society we will be left with.

[Carana]

I've seen Twitter feeds from medics and nurses in Italy, Spain, France and elsewhere, pleading, often in tears, the UK to lockdown before they end up in the same overwhelming situation.

IMO, BoJo's advisers hadn't kept up to speed, and he was still busy drumming up enthusiasm for all the "opportunities" that Brexit would offer.

Trump didn't want to know, either: no tests = no cases = no known deaths = no problem. His main concern was to avoid spooking the stock market prior to the election.

Re ventilators, I've seen very recent tweets from several medical facilities in various countries using a Y-valve to connect several patients to the same ventilator. I'm not sure how efficient that will prove to be, but it's worth a try while they scramble to make more available.

[Carana]

I find it somewhat unlikely (according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries ) that the UK currently only has 20 patients in ICU. I don't think that the UK hospitals have had the time to update that category. I am also sceptical about official figures from some other countries (including Russia).

My heart also goes out to everyone in the poorest countries, those caught up in wars and all those stuck in IDCs or refugee camps.

[Robittybob1]

That's not the way I see it. The only way to beat the virus is to build immunity...that means some need to catch it but not at a rate that the NHS can't cope with. If we simply lock ourselves away then it will be their when we come out. I do agree with the lockdown...to slow the spread but it can't be stopped.

Is there a figure that will achieve both immunity and not overwhelm the NHS?

[Robittybob1]

I think countries will in the future pay more attention to maintaining a manufacturing base.  They will be less reliant on China for their medical supplies.

[Robittybob1]

Drastic times call for drastic measures.

I think the government needs to seriously consider a cull of people to reduce the strain on the NHS.

You don't want to take out your doctors and nurses at the same time.

[Miss Taken Identity]

That's not the way I see it. The only way to beat the virus is to build immunity...that means some need to catch it but not at a rate that the NHS can't cope with. If we simply lock ourselves away then it will be their when we come out. I do agree with the lockdown...to slow the spread but it can't be stopped.

On paper I agree with herd immunity . However, as you say the NHS couldn't cope with the rate of the virus spreading and it is the most vulnerable at risk.

 That would be way too many deaths. And it does smack a little of the Hitler and the survival of the fittest with his murderous campaign in mental hospitals and removing citizens with disabilities during his reign of terror.


I do believe lock down should have began earlier and London should have had a no leave zone. And supermarkets shuld have  been more strict about people emptying shelves!

[Mr Gray]

On paper I agree with herd immunity . However, as you say the NHS couldn't cope with the rate of the virus spreading and it is the most vulnerable at risk.

 That would be way too many deaths. And it does smack a little of the Hitler and the survival of the fittest with his murderous campaign in mental hospitals and removing citizens with disabilities during his reign of terror.


I do believe lock down should have began earlier and London should have had a no leave zone. And supermarkets shuld have  been more strict about people emptying shelves!

we can slow down the spread and build herd immunity slower. if we dont build immunity then more will die. we cannot simply isolate and hope it goes away

[Vertigo Swirl]

On paper I agree with herd immunity . However, as you say the NHS couldn't cope with the rate of the virus spreading and it is the most vulnerable at risk.

 That would be way too many deaths. And it does smack a little of the Hitler and the survival of the fittest with his murderous campaign in mental hospitals and removing citizens with disabilities during his reign of terror.


I do believe lock down should have began earlier and London should have had a no leave zone. And supermarkets shuld have  been more strict about people emptying shelves!

Please can we not have more lazy comparisons to the Nazis?   The Nazis actively wanted to get rid of the disabled, the Tories have no such ideology. 

[Miss Taken Identity]

Please can we not have more lazy comparisons to the Nazis?   The Nazis actively wanted to get rid of the disabled, the Tories have no such ideology.

I wasn't comparing  anyone to the Nazis or accusing anyone of being one- Read the bloody post properly!

My response is very clear  having herd immunity would mean difficult decisions would have to be made as far as the weak and vulnerable were concerned.

 It would be akin to the Nazis what they did  allbe it under different circumstances"
Doctors would have to chose who lives who dies if it came to the push. Although I do agree herd immunity on paper would be a good option.

[Mr Gray]

I wasn't comparing  anyone to the Nazis or accusing anyone of being one- Read the bloody post properly!

My response is very clear  having herd immunity would mean difficult decisions would have to be made as far as the weak and vulnerable were concerned.

 It would be akin to the Nazis what they did  allbe it under different circumstances"
Doctors would have to chose who lives who dies if it came to the push. Although I do agree herd immunity on paper would be a good option.

You dont seem to understand the herd immunity principle....it is in fact what is happening. Boris is allowing limited contact which will allow the disease to spread hopefully at  a rate the nhs can  deal with . This will slowly build herd immunity....some will die and there is nothing that can be done. The idea is to keep deaths to a minimum.....nothing to do with the Nazis who did not promote survival of the fittest as you seem to think.