Dog alerts indicating Cadaver Odor

[ferryman]

Ferryman, I don't understand your mocking operations that were leaded by Mark Harrison. Portugueses were just executing orders ! When you read their reports, you can't but acknowledge the respect they have for the author of the golden hour concept..

I'm not quite clear what you mean?

Can you point to something I've said and I will try to explain.

[AnneGuedes]

Sure, Carana, these experiment and analyses don't answer all questions.
It's difficult to establish what post-mortem minimum delay is required. Many factors are at work, likely. The manner of death might have some effect. Intuitively I'd say that decomposition would take more time in the case of a person who had an immediate accidental death than in the case of a very sick person. 
It could depend also on the skill of a particular cadaver dog.

[AnneGuedes]

Ferryman, I don't understand your mocking operations that were leaded by Mark Harrison. Portugueses were just executing orders ! When you read their reports, you can't but acknowledge the respect they have for the author of the golden hour concept..

I'm not quite clear what you mean?

Can you point to something I've said and I will try to explain.

...making still more of a mockery of both inspections at villa and (especially!) gym ...

[ferryman]

Ah!

I don't understand why Grime carried out either inspection.

Madeleine never lived at the villa and never went near the gym.

Mark Harrison made plain that they were looking for Madeleine's blood.

It was never going to be found in the villa because Madeleine never lived there.

It was never going to be found in the hire car because that was rented weeks after Madeleine vanished.

And it was certainly never going to be found in the gym.

[AnneGuedes]

Mark Harrison thought time had come to search for a dead Madeleine, not especially for blood.
I don't know either why they inspected the villa (the gymnasium was only a large clean space to deploy clothes). But I'm not a sleuth !

[ferryman]

Mark Harrison thought time had come to search for a dead Madeleine, not especially for blood.
I don't know either why they inspected the villa (the gymnasium was only a large clean space to deploy clothes). But I'm not a sleuth !

No.

Mark Harrison was handed a brief to consider that Madeleine had been 'murdered' and worked to it, as this comment from his report makes plain:

This report considers solely the possibility that Madeleine McCann has been murdered and her body is concealed within the areas previously searched by Police in Zone 1 around Praia Da Luz. Other scenarios or possibilities may on request be considered and be subject of a further report.

If Harrison was ever invited to consider any other scenario, and wrote another report, we don't see it on line.

It is a myth peddled in Amaral's book that Harrison changed the direction of the enquiry into one for a little girl assumed dead.

[AnneGuedes]

I don't think I said MH changed the course of the investigation. Nothing suggests that the Portugueses convinced him to advise searching for a body. Personally I find it reasonable, murder or not, after so many weeks. Anyhow MH took the initiative to send MG and the dogs to the villa. Do you have any doubt about this ?

[ferryman]

Nothing suggests that the Portugueses convinced him to advise searching for a body.

There's plenty that does.  Harrison's terms of reference for a start ...

[AnneGuedes]

Nothing suggests that the Portugueses convinced him to advise searching for a body.

There's plenty that does.  Harrison's terms of reference for a start ...

Ferryman, could you be a bit more specific, please ?

[ferryman]

Nothing suggests that the Portugueses convinced him to advise searching for a body.

There's plenty that does.  Harrison's terms of reference for a start ...

Ferryman, could you be a bit more specific, please ?

Anne, these are Mark Harrison's terms of reference, handed to him by (then) Amaral's boss (the now late) Encarnacao (RIP):

Terms of reference to provide assistance to the Portuguese Judicial Police.

1. Assist the Judicial Police and GNR in assessing new or previous areas searched and give opinion on the best methods and assets to provide assurance as to the absence or presence of M McCann's concealed remains.
2. Act as a "critical friend" to the officer in charge of search planning and management and offer immediate and enduring peer review until case resolution or search suspension.
3. Assist in the development of framework models such as scenario based searching to aid homicide disposal searching.
4. Consider further opportunities or areas for search in order to locate M McCann as applicable to the latest intelligence and inform tion provided.
5. Where appropriate, provide independent and impartial advice on the enabling and disabling factors of specialist resources available either within Portugal or elsewhere in body detection.
6. To assist in decision support where requested by testing and challenging claims made by persons offering unorthodox search methods or devices to aid locating M McCann.
7. Where appropriate and requested, assist in advising on procedures to procure any non Portuguese specialist assets that are deemed to be relevant and useful.

If you read on, you will find that Amaral's thesis that Gerry hid Madeleine's body on the beach stemmed from Harrison's work in exploring and ruling out the possibility that Madeleine's abductor (whom he never directly associated with Gerry) had buried Madeleine on the beach.

When you read Harrison's summary of searches, he excludes reference to British participation in searches he didn't recommend, but makes reference to British participation in those searches he did recommend.

In an edit, I will add Harrison's summary of searches.

Harrison's summary:

The timeline of these searches was as follows:
 
On 31-07-07 the PJ conducted canine searches with a search warrant at apartments in Praia da Luz that had been previously occupied by the McCanns and their friends.
 
On 01-08-07 the PJ and GNR assisted by a canine, conducted searches on the eastern beach and wasteland in Praia da Luz.
 
On 02-08-07 the PJ conducted a search warrant at a villa in Praia da Luz currently occupied by the McCann family.
 
Later the same day PJ officers conducted a screening procedure involving items removed from the McCann’s villa.
 
On 03-08-07 PJ and GNR officers were given instruction based on translated extracts from NPIA doctrine on search management and procedures. This focused on search procedures relating to buildings and vehicles.
 
On 04-08-07 and 05-08-07 a search warrant was executed at the villa and gardens belonging to the PJ suspect Robert Murat. This search involved both PJ and GNR personnel supported by civil defence, geophysical equipment operators and a canine handler.
 
On 06-08-07 ten vehicles were searched associated to the enquiry.
 
On 07-08-07 the western beach and remaining wasteland areas were searched using canine and GNR personnel.
 
On 08-08-07 the drains around the apartment block where Madeleine McCann disappeared from were subject to a visual inspection by PJ officers.
 

Harrison recommended: search of the holiday apartments, search of areas in and around PdL, search of the Murats' place.

In all those searches, Harrison acknowledges UK participation.

Harrison said nothing about the villa and nothing about the gym, both summarised (without description) as "PJ operations".

And while Harrison did recommend an inspection of vehicles, only two (of three) cars he recommended be inspected made the final line-up of 10.

Harrison gives no clue who took part in that inspection. 

And note those instructions to PJ personnel, issued only after both inspections at villa and gym.

If Harrison had seen it as his duty or necessary to issue such instructions, he'd have done so before any inspections.

[Gildas]

Clear evidence, from the dog video and from the files, in two cases

- around the parents' bedroom wardrobe area
- clothing

No evidence from either the dog video or the police files (at least as far as I have seen or read) that Keela the blood dog was sent into the following areas where Eddie the cadaver dog alerted

- verandah outside the parents' bedroom
- flowerbed area outside the flat
- the soft toy

And a single alert is likely to be in error 10-20% of the time.

Debunker, where did you get this figure of 10 - 20% from ?

[debunker]

Debunker, where did you get this figure of 10 - 20% from ?

Peer reviewed research into scent dog accuracy for false positive and false negative alerts in real life operation. Most suggest a maximum of 90% accuracy but some are as low as 30%.

I am happy with any researched figure less than 100%- nothing, especially dog and handler reactions is 100% accurate. All measurements have error rates.

[ferryman]

Here's something else that's always intrigued me, from the inspection in the gym, recorded by the PJ:

1. Between 23h20 and 23h30 the two dogs were allowed to reconoitre the entire area to guarantee that there were no existing odours - and none were detected by them.

2. Between 23h30 and 23h40 items from the box labelled 'common room' were inspected by the blood dog without result.
- At 23h41 the cadaver dog began its inspection and 'marked' some clothing on the edge of the area. The inspection ended at 23h52 with the clothing having been collected for later direct examination and photographic report.

An apparent acknowledgment of the possibility of pre-existing scents and a precaution against that.

Except that, there was no gap between completion of reconnoitre and commencement of search, suggesting that the clothes were already laid out before inspection. 

So what was the point of the reconnoitre? And why wasn't any, apparent, scent detected during reconnoitre?

Even more odd is that we know, in the simultaneous inspection of 10 vehicles, there was disregard for the principle or possibility of pre-existing scent.

One car did have an innocent scent (the McCanns', as it happened); any of them might have.

Or did the PJ read this literature Mark Harrison gave them on how to conduct a search and take bits from it that sounded good for their report?

[AnneGuedes]

Nothing suggests that the Portugueses convinced him to advise searching for a body.

There's plenty that does.  Harrison's terms of reference for a start ...

Ferryman, could you be a bit more specific, please ?

Anne, these are Mark Harrison's terms of reference, handed to him by (then) Amaral's boss (the now late) Encarnacao (RIP):

Terms of reference to provide assistance to the Portuguese Judicial Police.

1. Assist the Judicial Police and GNR in assessing new or previous areas searched and give opinion on the best methods and assets to provide assurance as to the absence or presence of M McCann's concealed remains.
2. Act as a "critical friend" to the officer in charge of search planning and management and offer immediate and enduring peer review until case resolution or search suspension.
3. Assist in the development of framework models such as scenario based searching to aid homicide disposal searching.
4. Consider further opportunities or areas for search in order to locate M McCann as applicable to the latest intelligence and inform tion provided.
5. Where appropriate, provide independent and impartial advice on the enabling and disabling factors of specialist resources available either within Portugal or elsewhere in body detection.
6. To assist in decision support where requested by testing and challenging claims made by persons offering unorthodox search methods or devices to aid locating M McCann.
7. Where appropriate and requested, assist in advising on procedures to procure any non Portuguese specialist assets that are deemed to be relevant and useful.

If you read on, you will find that Amaral's thesis that Gerry hid Madeleine's body on the beach stemmed from Harrison's work in exploring and ruling out the possibility that Madeleine's abductor (whom he never directly associated with Gerry) had buried Madeleine on the beach.

When you read Harrison's summary of searches, he excludes reference to British participation in searches he didn't recommend, but makes reference to British participation in those searches he did recommend.

In an edit, I will add Harrison's summary of searches.

Harrison's summary:

The timeline of these searches was as follows:
 
On 31-07-07 the PJ conducted canine searches with a search warrant at apartments in Praia da Luz that had been previously occupied by the McCanns and their friends.
 
On 01-08-07 the PJ and GNR assisted by a canine, conducted searches on the eastern beach and wasteland in Praia da Luz.
 
On 02-08-07 the PJ conducted a search warrant at a villa in Praia da Luz currently occupied by the McCann family.
 
Later the same day PJ officers conducted a screening procedure involving items removed from the McCann’s villa.
 
On 03-08-07 PJ and GNR officers were given instruction based on translated extracts from NPIA doctrine on search management and procedures. This focused on search procedures relating to buildings and vehicles.
 
On 04-08-07 and 05-08-07 a search warrant was executed at the villa and gardens belonging to the PJ suspect Robert Murat. This search involved both PJ and GNR personnel supported by civil defence, geophysical equipment operators and a canine handler.
 
On 06-08-07 ten vehicles were searched associated to the enquiry.
 
On 07-08-07 the western beach and remaining wasteland areas were searched using canine and GNR personnel.
 
On 08-08-07 the drains around the apartment block where Madeleine McCann disappeared from were subject to a visual inspection by PJ officers.
 

Harrison recommended: search of the holiday apartments, search of areas in and around PdL, search of the Murats' place.

In all those searches, Harrison acknowledges UK participation.

Harrison said nothing about the villa and nothing about the gym, both summarised (without description) as "PJ operations".

And while Harrison did recommend an inspection of vehicles, only two (of three) cars he recommended be inspected made the final line-up of 10.

Harrison gives no clue who took part in that inspection. 

And note those instructions to PJ personnel, issued only after both inspections at villa and gym.

If Harrison had seen it as his duty or necessary to issue such instructions, he'd have done so before any inspections.

I'm a bit lost, Ferryman, actually I'd appreciate to know your conceptual framework. I believed the British and the PJ well cooperated in this search which appears justified to me. You seem to suggest that the villa search was invented by the PJ to convince MH to explore the homicide scenario or to show him it was the only possible one. Am I wrong ?

[Carana]

Here's something else that's always intrigued me, from the inspection in the gym, recorded by the PJ:

1. Between 23h20 and 23h30 the two dogs were allowed to reconoitre the entire area to guarantee that there were no existing odours - and none were detected by them.

2. Between 23h30 and 23h40 items from the box labelled 'common room' were inspected by the blood dog without result.
- At 23h41 the cadaver dog began its inspection and 'marked' some clothing on the edge of the area. The inspection ended at 23h52 with the clothing having been collected for later direct examination and photographic report.

An apparent acknowledgment of the possibility of pre-existing scents and a precaution against that.

Except that, there was no gap between completion of reconnoitre and commencement of search, suggesting that the clothes were already laid out before inspection. 

So what was the point of the reconnoitre? And why wasn't any, apparent, scent detected during reconnoitre?

Even more odd is that we know, in the simultaneous inspection of 10 vehicles, there was disregard for the principle or possibility of pre-existing scent.

One car did have an innocent scent (the McCanns', as it happened); any of them might have.

Or did the PJ read this literature Mark Harrison gave them on how to conduct a search and take bits from it that sounded good for their report?

Well, I suppose the timing could have been off by a couple of minutes (although it then continues by stating 23h41, which sounds precise). I agree that it seems odd that the report doesn't mention timing for laying out the clothes, though.

I also find it interesting (a coincidence?) that the items alerted to came from that very first box.

I'm more intrigued by the fact that I still haven't worked out the system for the items supposedly alerted to.