Many people are wrong interpreting statistics ...

[Heriberto Janosch]

Statistics for toddlers are not the same as for teenagers and adults.They return of their own account if tthey just ran away or escape if they didnt.

It is more probable that she is dead than alive, but obviously it is unknown which is true. The dog alerts play a part here too, however much some people want to show that they mean nothing at all vis a vis a possible death.
No one knows.
Likewise, there is no evidence whatsoever that she is alive.

How many three year olds snatched by a stranger have been found alive after years? And how many toddlers and young children have been found dead?
The reality is depressing. Abducted teenagers and young adults taken for sexual predatory reasons are a whole different kettle of fish.They tend to live.

Redblossom, you can not say, scientifically, that "It is more probable that she is dead than alive", based on statistics.

Also you can not say "there is no evidence whatsoever that she is alive", because this is incomplete.

But you can say "there is no evidence whatsoever that she is alive, and there is no evidence whatsoever that she is dead".

See my posts, for example this http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1349.msg38192#msg38192

Heri.

[Eleanor]

If Madeleine is found alive then the statistics for 2007 are going to be different from what they would be if she was found dead.  Simple really.

[Redblossom]

Heri, then you are saying the words probably, probability, likelihood, have no meaning at all? They are all true by the way, mathematically they are, but I agree they cannot apply to single cases, just like that, but then who said they ever applied to a single case 100%

[debunker]

Heri, then you are saying the words probably, probability, likelihood, have no meaning at all? They are all true by the way, mathematically they are, but I agree they cannot apply to single cases, just like that, but then who said they ever applied to a single case 100%

They are 'true' for aggregate numbers, but indecisive for single events. This is basic level statistics.

[Heriberto Janosch]

Heri, then you are saying the words probably, probability, likelihood, have no meaning at all? They are all true by the way, mathematically they are, but I agree they cannot apply to single cases, just like that, but then who said they ever applied to a single case 100%

Probability has meaning in formal sciences like maths when it is applied to random events.

It can not be used in no random events and facts like single crimes. But frequencies (of past lot of cases) can be used to estimate frequencies of future lot of cases. But never you can use a frequency (of past lot of cases) to expain a single case.

We can not do any assignation of probabilities to Madeleine case. We can bet, but it is not scientific.


I think I was clear here: http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1349.msg38192#msg38192

[Redblossom]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

[Heriberto Janosch]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

Of course!!!

All the persons, journalists, ex policemen, etc. saying "it is 90% of chance she is dead" (presented as scientific fact when it is untrue) is a great damage to the investigation.

I always think of a person who maybe saw Madeleine, and said to him/herself: "It seems Madeleine, but she is dead, so I close my mouth".

Heri.

[Redblossom]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

Of course!!! All the persons, journalists, ex policemen, etc. saying "it is 90% of chance she is dead" (presented as scientific fact when it is untrue) is a great damage to the investigation.

I always think of a person who maybe saw Madeleine, and said to him/herself: "It seems Madeleine, but she is dead, so I close my mouth".

Heri.

No, that is silly.If I saw a girl who looked like her I would report it, despite whatI read anywhere and what I personally thought before. You are giving the press bloggers mr Aamarals book, whatever else,etc too much power of influence which doesnt really exist. after all Kate Mccann says herself a few days ago  people are still looking.

[Heriberto Janosch]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

Of course!!! All the persons, journalists, ex policemen, etc. saying "it is 90% of chance she is dead" (presented as scientific fact when it is untrue) is a great damage to the investigation.

I always think of a person who maybe saw Madeleine, and said to him/herself: "It seems Madeleine, but she is dead, so I close my mouth".

Heri.

No, that is silly.If I saw a girl who looked like her I would report it, despite whatI read anywhere and what I personally thought before. You are giving the press bloggers mr Aamarals book, whatever else,etc too much power of influence which doesnt really exist. after all Kate Mccann says herself a few days ago  people are still looking.

You are a single case 

I am talking about what people say in Madrid, Andalucía and Algarve in general, they are taking Amaral unscientific theory as proven facts.

Heri.

[Redblossom]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

Of course!!! All the persons, journalists, ex policemen, etc. saying "it is 90% of chance she is dead" (presented as scientific fact when it is untrue) is a great damage to the investigation.

I always think of a person who maybe saw Madeleine, and said to him/herself: "It seems Madeleine, but she is dead, so I close my mouth".

Heri.

No, that is silly.If I saw a girl who looked like her I would report it, despite whatI read anywhere and what I personally thought before. You are giving the press bloggers mr Aamarals book, whatever else,etc too much power of influence which doesnt really exist. after all Kate Mccann says herself a few days ago  people are still looking.

You are a single case 

I am talking about what people say in Madrid and Algarve in general, they are taking Amaral unscientific theory as proven facts.

Heri.

well to be fair they havent been unproven have they? and policework is not just based on scientific theory either, and less of the mr amaral this and that, he was a coordinator of the case, many other pj officers were involved in it

[Heriberto Janosch]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

Of course!!! All the persons, journalists, ex policemen, etc. saying "it is 90% of chance she is dead" (presented as scientific fact when it is untrue) is a great damage to the investigation.

I always think of a person who maybe saw Madeleine, and said to him/herself: "It seems Madeleine, but she is dead, so I close my mouth".

Heri.

No, that is silly.If I saw a girl who looked like her I would report it, despite whatI read anywhere and what I personally thought before. You are giving the press bloggers mr Aamarals book, whatever else,etc too much power of influence which doesnt really exist. after all Kate Mccann says herself a few days ago  people are still looking.

You are a single case 

I am talking about what people say in Madrid and Algarve in general, they are taking Amaral unscientific theory as proven facts.

Heri.

well to be fair they havent been unproven have they? and policework is not just based on scientific theory either, and less of the mr amaral this and that, he was a coordinator of the case, many other pj officers were involved in it

I must go to sleep, Redblossom ... Yes, it is Amaral + Tavares de Almeida + other theory ... It does not matter ... I said people in Spain and Portugal (places where Madeleine could be alive) believed in general that Madeleine died by accident and her parents hid her corpse, although this is obviously not true.

Good night! 

[Redblossom]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

Of course!!! All the persons, journalists, ex policemen, etc. saying "it is 90% of chance she is dead" (presented as scientific fact when it is untrue) is a great damage to the investigation.

I always think of a person who maybe saw Madeleine, and said to him/herself: "It seems Madeleine, but she is dead, so I close my mouth".

Heri.

No, that is silly.If I saw a girl who looked like her I would report it, despite whatI read anywhere and what I personally thought before. You are giving the press bloggers mr Aamarals book, whatever else,etc too much power of influence which doesnt really exist. after all Kate Mccann says herself a few days ago  people are still looking.

You are a single case 

I am talking about what people say in Madrid and Algarve in general, they are taking Amaral unscientific theory as proven facts.

Heri.

well to be fair they havent been unproven have they? and policework is not just based on scientific theory either, and less of the mr amaral this and that, he was a coordinator of the case, many other pj officers were involved in it

I must go to sleep, Redblossom ... Yes, it is Amaral + Tavares de Almeida + other theory ... It does not matter ... I said people in Spain and Portugal (places where Madeleine could be alive) believed in general that Madeleine died by accident and her parents hid her corpse, although this is obviously not true.

Good night! 

Ok but you also dont KNOW this is not true do you? if any of us knew what was true or false we would not be here. And if the PT authorities knew what was true or not they would not have left the case up on the air saying
 they know nothing about what crime happened and that there was no evidence of anything at all.


Would we? Goodnight though Heri, I will follow you.

[Heriberto Janosch]

I dont know Heri, I am not a scientist or mathematician. Your point in this thread is taken, but does it really make any difference to anything?

Of course!!! All the persons, journalists, ex policemen, etc. saying "it is 90% of chance she is dead" (presented as scientific fact when it is untrue) is a great damage to the investigation.

I always think of a person who maybe saw Madeleine, and said to him/herself: "It seems Madeleine, but she is dead, so I close my mouth".

Heri.

No, that is silly.If I saw a girl who looked like her I would report it, despite whatI read anywhere and what I personally thought before. You are giving the press bloggers mr Aamarals book, whatever else,etc too much power of influence which doesnt really exist. after all Kate Mccann says herself a few days ago  people are still looking.

You are a single case 

I am talking about what people say in Madrid and Algarve in general, they are taking Amaral unscientific theory as proven facts.

Heri.

well to be fair they havent been unproven have they? and policework is not just based on scientific theory either, and less of the mr amaral this and that, he was a coordinator of the case, many other pj officers were involved in it

I must go to sleep, Redblossom ... Yes, it is Amaral + Tavares de Almeida + other theory ... It does not matter ... I said people in Spain and Portugal (places where Madeleine could be alive) believed in general that Madeleine died by accident and her parents hid her corpse, although this is obviously not true.

Good night! 

Ok but you also dont KNOW this is not true do you? if any of us knew what was true or false we would not be here. And if the PT authorities knew what was true or not they would not have left the case up on the air saying
 they know nothing about what crime happened and that there was no evidence of anything at all.


Would we? Goodnight though Heri, I will follow you.

Yes, after seriously studied the case (PJ Files, visits, etc.) I can say that neither Gerry and Kate nor Tapas 7 are involved in the crime, and that the crime was an abduction by stranger.

Heri.

[muratfan]

50/50 chance of her being found alive

[Heriberto Janosch]

50/50 chance of her being found alive

No, muratfan. You do not understand me. You can not estimate 50/50, 70/30, 30/70, 90/10, 10/90 ... You can not estimate nothing about this unknown fact ... And you can not used past (aggregate of lot of cases) statistics to a single case ... So the only way of knowing is investigating the single case searching for Madeleine ...

Please see http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1349.msg38192#msg38192

Heri