How likely is it that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man ?

[AnneGuedes]

Am I right in thinking that the later it was, the less likely it would be to be an abductor?

It's a good idea to keep calling him neutrally Smithman. A carrier or an abductor ? I don't think they crossed much after 10.

[AnneGuedes]

If you are planning on setting up an abduction then the abductee can't be in the apartment - "she's gone, an abductor must have taken her". Some place else is a possibility but I believe outside due to the first searches going on outside at 10pm and Smithman taking the risk i.e. having to move her through streets (he did use quiet back streets (route was quickly planned prior) but didn't count on a big family group of 9 coming past)  a second time further away from the apartment to a better hiding place.
I think the Smith family would have passed Smithman 10 to10:05pm estimate time.

I don't think that Smithman stored in a bag nor planned anything more than disposing rapidly, definitively and not too close by.

[pathfinder73]

At what time do you think Madeleine left the apartment?

[AnneGuedes]

I would say five-three to ten.

[pathfinder73]

Thanks. Carried out and not concealed?

[jassi]

I would say five-three to ten.

You discount the possibility of her being stored outside earlier  - say in the flower bed area ?

[AnneGuedes]

Not concealed. I can't figure out Smithman acting after having meditated. Had he, he wouldn't have done it.

[AnneGuedes]

You discount the possibility of her being stored outside earlier  - say in the flower bed area ?

I think she left the flat through the main, north door.

[pathfinder73]

That makes sense but I don't agree as the tapas group were around the apartment outside at that time. One was at the back of the apartment in the car park area and others were going back to their apartments that way to check on the kids. I'm not saying it's not possible but I still think the bag concealment theory. Is there any information on what luggage they arrived with in the files? Thanks again.

[AnneGuedes]

That makes sense but I don't agree as the tapas group were around the apartment outside at that time. One was at the back of the apartment in the car park area and others were going back to their apartments that way to check on the kids. I'm not saying it's not possible but I still think the bag concealment theory. Is there any information on what luggage they arrived with in the files? Thanks again.

I see what you mean, but I think their tendency would be to search on the south side of the building, none of them says s/he searched the car park.
It isn't impossible that Madeleine left the flat through the door-window however. The distance between the gate and the alley way is only a few meters and visibility was good.
The alley path had the advantage to be very dark and to lead to the upper car park, the one that belongs to G4.
I don't think there's any indication of their luggages in the PJ Files.

[pegasus]

They had two main luggage items (plus the usual small carry-on stuff).
Processos Vol I Page 6.

[AnneGuedes]

They had two main luggage items (plus the usual small carry-on stuff).
Processos Vol I Page 6.

What are those small seals for ?

[pegasus]

(On page 6) They are copies of the two luggage labels. The PJ got these copies from the airline.

[AnneGuedes]

They are copies of the two luggage labels. The PJ got these copies from the airline.

What are these 4 "ema" with different numbers ?

[pegasus]

Plane tickets. EMA is the airline.