How likely is it that Jane Tanner and the Smiths saw the 'same' man ?

[Sherlock Holmes]

what if Tanner was wrong about  the direction he was going?

Jane's description  - in what it contained and did not contain - is consistent with someone walking in the direction she reports. She is on the left hand side of the street, coming from the reception, and her man is walking across the road from left to right. His back is towards her for most of the time he is in her sight, and this is reflected in her physical description of him, which concentrates on his long hair, and leaves out the face, despite the fact that objectively the face would have been illuminated by the street lamp he was walking towards.

[AnneGuedes]

How do we know this is the reason Redwood says they're not 100% sure that Tannerman is being ruled out, Anne? They have not made their reasoning open to the public.

It would however be very interesting to know exactly on what grounds SY feel (almost) able to rule him out. Knowing their reasons would clear up most of the questions we have here.

SY are of course under no obligation to reveal their reasoning, but I wonder if it is reasonable to imagine that at some point they may choose to do so. Or it might come out some other way.

In the Barry George case, for example, there was a great deal of information in the public domain as to the reasons why certain things were being ruled in and ruled out.

Perhaps we can hope for this here.

That's why I said "imo", SH.
SY is under no obligation, if it's the interest of the investigation, but has not the right to fool the public. Showing a rotten orange pyjama saying it was very similar to Tannerman child's one is taking the public for idiots.
I suppose that, before this, I would have believed their saying they were almost sure, thinking the "almost" was leaving a margin for error, but now I'm really perplex.

[Sherlock Holmes]

That's why I said "imo", SH.
SY is under no obligation, if it's the interest of the investigation, but has not the right to fool the public. Showing a rotten orange pyjama saying it was very similar to Tannerman child's one is taking the public for idiots.
I suppose that, before this, I would have believed their saying they were almost sure, thinking the "almost" was leaving a margin for error, but now I'm really perplex.

SY MUST have taken into consideration the fact that 'Tannerman' was walking in the 'wrong' direction at this point - so there must be a plausible explanation for why he was doing that.

We are simply lacking information.

[sadie]

That's why I said "imo", SH.
SY is under no obligation, if it's the interest of the investigation, but has not the right to fool the public. Showing a rotten orange pyjama saying it was very similar to Tannerman child's one is taking the public for idiots.
I suppose that, before this, I would have believed their saying they were almost sure, thinking the "almost" was leaving a margin for error, but now I'm really perplex.

Now I dont know the answer to this so I am thinking aloud

The lamps were I believe sodium lamps, which I think give out an orange light IIRC.

THe pyjamas were orange.

What happens to the perceived colour when orange light hits orange fabric.   Does the orange fabric look off white in sodium light ... or does it go deeper orange?

Anyone know?

[AnneGuedes]

SY MUST have taken into consideration the fact that 'Tannerman' was walking in the 'wrong' direction at this point - so there must be a plausible explanation for why he was doing that.

We are simply lacking information.

DCI RW said too much or not enough and discredited SY with a ridiculous comparison.

[jassi]

Now I dont know the answer to this so I am thinking aloud

The lamps were I believe sodium lamps, which I think give out an orange light IIRC.

THe pyjamas were orange.

What happens to the perceived colour when orange light hits orange fabric.   Does the orange fabric look off white in sodium light ... or does it go deeper orange?

Anyone know?

Difficult to know without testing.
All genuine colours other than orange will appear as shades of grey.
 A genuinely orange  dye will still appear orange, but if the dye is made from a combination of colours, then it would appear as shades of grey. The same would be so for garment that was dyed white.

[pathfinder73]

I think Madeleine left the apartment at either around 8.30pm or just after 9pm (a few minutes after the last members of the group/tapas 9 had arrived at the tapas bar).

[Sherlock Holmes]

That's why I said "imo", SH.
SY is under no obligation, if it's the interest of the investigation, but has not the right to fool the public. Showing a rotten orange pyjama saying it was very similar to Tannerman child's one is taking the public for idiots.
I suppose that, before this, I would have believed their saying they were almost sure, thinking the "almost" was leaving any margin for error, but now I'm really perplex.

Is it?

[pegasus]

There are 3 items in that crimewatch photo, all relevant. I think the very light pink blanket was covering the pyjama top (but not covering the lower legs) when JT saw this child.

[AnneGuedes]

Is it?

Yes, it is, unless DCI RW is colour blind and nobody dares suggest it...

[AnneGuedes]

There are 3 items in that crimewatch photo, all relevant. I think the very light pink blanket was covering the pyjama top (but not covering the lower legs) when JT saw this child.

She said she only saw the legs, white with perhaps little printed flowers and, she was sure, a frill, matching the description stated by Mr and Mrs McCann on the 4th of May. Curiously, on the 10th, Mr McCann didn't remember which type of pyjama Madeleine had on,  though he saw her on the cover (Mrs McCann said she was "under").

[Angelo222]

How could that be when the bed didn't even appear to have been slept in??

Parents go on holiday abroad.
Lose sense of reality.
Put children to bed alone.
Leave apartment door unlocked.
Leave apartment for a night out.
One child wakes and wanders.
Child is lifted by a stranger and abducted.
Parent returns to find child gone.
Parents overwhelming sense of guilt.
Concoct intruder via window story.
Rest is history.

[AnneGuedes]

How could that be when the bed didn't even appear to have been slept in??

Parents go on holiday abroad.
Lose sense of reality.
Put children to bed alone.
Leave apartment door unlocked.
Leave apartment for a night out.
One child wakes and wanders.
Child is lifted by a stranger and abducted.
Parent returns to find child gone.
Parents overwhelming sense of guilt.
Concoct intruder via window story.
Rest is history.

The bed doesn't look slept in because either she was in another bed (her parents' one) or she already didn't need a bed.
If they had concocted an intrusion via window to conceal a wandering off, would they have mentioned to the police the crying episode, which was first told to the group at dinner and presented as a reason why they left the door-window open ? Or would they have kept quiet, hoping none of the group would remember it (Mrs Payne mentioned it only in her rog interview) ?

[Angelo222]

The bed doesn't look slept in because either she was in another bed (her parents' one) or she already didn't need a bed.
If they had concocted an intrusion via window to conceal a wandering off, would they have mentioned to the police the crying episode, which was first told to the group at dinner and presented as a reason why they left the door-window open ? Or would they have kept quiet, hoping none of the group would remember it (Mrs Payne mentioned it only in her rog interview) ?

She had to since she had already confided in another member of the tapas group.  To not have mentioned it would have caused even more suspicion.

Back on topic however, I still believe that both sightings of a man carrying a child were pure coincidence.  Whoever lifted Maddie put her in a motor vehicle and cleared off pronto.

[AnneGuedes]

She had to since she had already confided in another member of the tapas group.  To not have mentioned it would have caused even more suspicion.

Back on topic however, I still believe that both sightings of a man carrying a child were pure coincidence.  Whoever lifted Maddie put her in a motor vehicle and cleared off pronto.

Both Tannerman and Smithman were Innocentmen then ?