Author Topic: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.  (Read 32539 times)

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Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #30 on: February 18, 2016, 01:45:25 PM »
There is an assumption amongst some that technology will solve everything, having spent a career in IT, it is really good at doing silly things very quickly.

Pretty much. There were a few state of the art software packages for drybolics that needed you to insert a "false reservoir" in order to make the things analyse. Of course one had to remember not to build the bloody thing because it was only needed by the computer !
They could spew out calcs at an impressive rate though. I melted several slide rules trying to keep up.
DIS SUM DAT n DIS SUM DOC
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"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #31 on: February 18, 2016, 02:03:43 PM »
Perhaps the resident HOLMES experts could debunk each of these outrageous claims from Jouranl De noticias with their evidence and reasoning:


1)Scotland Yard possesses software designed to reconstruct, in a virtual way, the facts that have been reported by the various witnesses who have intervened in the process of Maddie's disappearance.

2)The versions of those involved may be cross referenced, and after the data is processed by the software, one can understand what adds up – and what does not.

3)In this software, one can insert photos and the description of the apartment, including Maddie's bedroom, drawings or photos of the entries, routes to the restaurant – and a description thereof – where the parents and friends were dining, their table and the localization and position of each person.

4)The software will also receive the statements that everyone has made and will be making (the English will hear the McCann couple's friends again), as these people may recall facts, as small as they may be, and even add objects that may give their descriptions more veracity.

5) From there on, the investigators may reach more precise conclusions, which, very often, belies the testimonies that have been described in their statements.
In general, HOLMES would speed up the ability to do this, after the system has been very laboriously loaded up.  Most armchair detectives have probably laboured over finding out where things are, and thinking, 'hmm, there was something on that somewhere, but can I remember where it was?'.

HOLMES cuts through that, based on the system as described.

As to things like inconsistencies in timings, I suspect HOLMES does not try to reach a conclusion, but merely flags up this type of stuff as something that a human may prioritise for investigation, or may not.

One issue that has been commented on is the nightmare of the rogatories.  I'd love to know what they did to those.  Did they go in raw and in their entirety?  Or did someone clean them up somehow?

If you actually think through how the system must have been loaded up, the rogs are far from the only obstacle.

What I'm confident of is that there is no way HOLMES is going to crack this through artificial intelligence.  Should the case be cracked it will be by human (police) intelligence, with HOLMES positioned as merely an assistant office administrator.
What's up, old man?

Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #32 on: February 18, 2016, 02:13:13 PM »

If the alternative is scribbled notes on bits of paper that can be easily mislaid, which do you find more potentially efficient?

In what format does the data entry operative receive the data from the originator and what is the trail ? Or do you think the guy up the sharp end punches it into a phd as it happens?
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline jassi

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #33 on: February 18, 2016, 02:13:27 PM »
In general, HOLMES would speed up the ability to do this, after the system has been very laboriously loaded up.  Most armchair detectives have probably laboured over finding out where things are, and thinking, 'hmm, there was something on that somewhere, but can I remember where it was?'.

HOLMES cuts through that, based on the system as described.

As to things like inconsistencies in timings, I suspect HOLMES does not try to reach a conclusion, but merely flags up this type of stuff as something that a human may prioritise for investigation, or may not.

One issue that has been commented on is the nightmare of the rogatories.  I'd love to know what they did to those.  Did they go in raw and in their entirety?  Or did someone clean them up somehow?

If you actually think through how the system must have been loaded up, the rogs are far from the only obstacle.

What I'm confident of is that there is no way HOLMES is going to crack this through artificial intelligence.  Should the case be cracked it will be by human (police) intelligence, with HOLMES positioned as merely an assistant office administrator.

Is this perhaps what took so much of the time. Would data be entered by experienced detectives, or secretarial type people.  Subject to human error, whichever.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline G-Unit

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #34 on: February 18, 2016, 02:14:19 PM »
May we have a threads on SAP and Artemis as well?

I've used SAP and Oracle (HOLMES is an enhanced Oracle database). I've not used Artemis.
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Offline Carana

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #35 on: February 18, 2016, 02:16:36 PM »
I STILL don't see the issue. Obviously there is going to be human intervention to assess the state of affairs (red flags, back burner issues or resolved ones).

HOLMES2 (or any other project management system) speeds up the process. Data can be exported if needed to feed into other software.

What's the issue?

Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #36 on: February 18, 2016, 02:19:34 PM »
Is this perhaps what took so much of the time. Would data be entered by experienced detectives, or secretarial type people.  Subject to human error, whichever.

Back in the old days it was punched in on a Friday afternoon after the weekly lunch time sojourn down the battle !
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline Carana

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #37 on: February 18, 2016, 02:22:09 PM »
I've used SAP and Oracle (HOLMES is an enhanced Oracle database). I've not used Artemis.

In what capacity?

Offline Brietta

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #38 on: February 18, 2016, 02:27:47 PM »
In general, HOLMES would speed up the ability to do this, after the system has been very laboriously loaded up.  Most armchair detectives have probably laboured over finding out where things are, and thinking, 'hmm, there was something on that somewhere, but can I remember where it was?'.

HOLMES cuts through that, based on the system as described.

As to things like inconsistencies in timings, I suspect HOLMES does not try to reach a conclusion, but merely flags up this type of stuff as something that a human may prioritise for investigation, or may not.

One issue that has been commented on is the nightmare of the rogatories.  I'd love to know what they did to those.  Did they go in raw and in their entirety?  Or did someone clean them up somehow?

If you actually think through how the system must have been loaded up, the rogs are far from the only obstacle.

What I'm confident of is that there is no way HOLMES is going to crack this through artificial intelligence.  Should the case be cracked it will be by human (police) intelligence, with HOLMES positioned as merely an assistant office administrator.

Just a refined very easily accessed filing system.  Initially labour consuming but ultimately worth its weight in gold.
"All I'm going to say is that we've conducted a very serious investigation and there's no indication that Madeleine McCann's parents are connected to her disappearance. On the other hand, we have a lot of evidence pointing out that Christian killed her," Wolter told the "Friday at 9"....

Offline G-Unit

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #39 on: February 18, 2016, 02:28:50 PM »
HOLMES has been quoted as the answer to questions raised about the 'forensic examination' of the timeline. The system can examine the timeline and identify gaps which could have allowed time for an abduction.

What it cannot do is decide if the times given and entered are correct or not. If the times entered are not correct, the gaps identified are also not correct.
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Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #40 on: February 18, 2016, 02:29:29 PM »
I've used SAP and Oracle (HOLMES is an enhanced Oracle database). I've not used Artemis.

Artemis was a bit of a trail blazer in that it was I think the first system of its kind not to need a main frame to run off.
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline Carana

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #41 on: February 18, 2016, 02:35:32 PM »
Just a refined very easily accessed filing system.  Initially labour consuming but ultimately worth its weight in gold.

Certainly easier than having to find scribbles of "furto" on bits of paper, I would have thought.

I have no doubt that numerous PT police officers did their very best under the circumstances. It's not their fault if they didn't have adequate resources at the time.

However, I find that very different to the constant stream of half-baked leaks and subsequent assertions by certain people.

Offline jassi

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #42 on: February 18, 2016, 02:41:23 PM »
HOLMES has been quoted as the answer to questions raised about the 'forensic examination' of the timeline. The system can examine the timeline and identify gaps which could have allowed time for an abduction.

What it cannot do is decide if the times given and entered are correct or not. If the times entered are not correct, the gaps identified are also not correct.

As has been said before, only as good as the data entered into it.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Carana

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #43 on: February 18, 2016, 02:47:13 PM »
I didn't want to add off-topic comments to a thread, but I did ask if Blonk's "reasons" insinuating that M had disappeared prior to the alert could be the subject of a new thread.

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=2817.msg308212#msg308212

What's the situation on that? As it stands, it appears as undisputed fact.

« Last Edit: February 20, 2016, 12:29:11 PM by John »

Offline G-Unit

Re: HOLMES 2 and the search for Madeleine McCann.
« Reply #44 on: February 18, 2016, 02:53:02 PM »
In what capacity?

As accounting packages. They are very powerful databases used by (usually) very big multinational companies. They can store and process data for many different company names (the companies I worked for had many subsidiaries all over the world). The last one I used was SAP and people world-wide were entering data. Depending on your access permission you could look at the entries being made by all those people. Searches can be carried out and bespoke reports scheduled. Obviously the information extracted was only as correct as the information entered. If a human entered the wrong Vat code, for example, that transaction would be under the wrong heading on a Vat report.
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