Personally, I am in limbo at the moment, Vertigo! My mind just isn't pointing me in any definitive direction at the moment.
No worries, though I am surprised if you?re still entertaining the possibility that Gerry was Smithman. There is a branch of McCann scepticism which has made peace with the idea of that Smithman was not Gerry, however this has led them down another ludicrous path of convoluted conspiracy. The simplest solutions to a mystery such as this are usually the correct ones imo, ones that don?t involve highly improbable actions, don?t involve ignoring all but the most unreliable of witnesses, don?t involve complicated plots between friends and acquaintances.
IMO, abducted by a stranger fits that brief. There were a couple of clear windows of opportunity for one to strike - after Gerry?s check, or after Matt?s check. The apartment was unlocked by the patio door, however an opportunist thief with a lock kit (CB had one, it was found amongst his possessions) may not have known that at the time and could also have entered by the front door. He may have been disturbed on first attempt (perhaps shortly after the McCanns left for dinner) which might explain the moving door. Perhaps he hid outside in the bushes waiting until Gerry had left before returning inside, opened the window for a quicker getaway in case needed or to hear approaching passersby. He then removed Madeleine from her bed sometime after 9.10pm and left via the front door, and probably left the area by car or van.
It?s one plausible scenario which fits the known facts. I?m not dogmatically wedded to it however. The abduction could possibly have happened half an hour later, following more or less the same sequence. Moving internal door earlier could have been caused by a child getting out of bed and wandering into the living area, air movement in the apartment caused by opening the patio door, or maybe Gerry misremembering how the door was left in the first place.
All the above obviously ripe for sneering ridicule from some quarters I know, but I believe the above scenarios are more plausible than the others we are constantly and aggressively being told occurred.
