Analysis of the timeline

[G-Unit]

According to DCI Redwood a forensic analysis of the timeline for the evening of 3rd May was carried out and it showed an opportunity for Madeleine to be taken btween 9.30pm and 10pm.

Heriberto Janosch has said he conducted a system analysis of the timeline which told him that it was physically impossible for the McCanns to have been involved in Madeleine's disappearance.

I have no fancy computer system, but I thought it was worth a look at the timeline. Rather than looking at individual statements I decided to take the typed timeline produced by the group as their definitive account because Russell O'Brien said;

that was a timeline that was made purely by the nine of us
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RUSSELL-OBRIEN_ROGATORY.htm

Having had input from all those present this timeline is the best effort of all nine people.

20.35   Gerry & Kate at restaurant      
20.40   Jane Tanner at restaurant      
20.42   Matt and Rachael at restaurant      
20.45   Russell at restaurant      
20.55   Matt 1st check                                                Passes the Paynes and Dianne Webster
20.57   Matt listens      
21.00   Matt returns 1st check                                Starters ordered   
21.05   GM 1st check      
21.15   Jane sighting                                                GM & JEZ talking north of gate.   
21.20   Jane returns                                                Starters have arrived   
21.25   Matt and Russ go check      
21.30   Matt McCann apartment check      
21.35   Matt returns from  McCann apartment check        Mains have arrived   
21.40   Jane relieves Russ      
21.45   Russ returns      
21.55   Russ food served      
22.00   Kate check                                                        Searches all rooms and wardrobes then heads back   
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_3_MAY_07.htm

We can see the 15 minute gap between 21.45 and 22.00 which Redwood identified. Previously there were only 5 minute gaps.

It takes Matt 5 minutes to do a listening check of three apartments, and it takes Jane 5 minutes to do an inside check on her children only. When Matt does his second check it takes him 10 minutes because he checks two apartments and speaks to Russell also. Gerald visited the bathroom and had a moment n the bedroom, so he was likely to have spent 5 minutes in his apartment, then 5 minutes chatting. As Kate searched the apartment, the alarm was probably raised between 5 and 10 minutes after she went to check.

There are some statements by those outside the group which either contradict their timeline or cast doubt on it.
 
Stephen Carpenter thought they were all seated at approx. 21.30pm. If he's correct it's unlikely that the starters didn't arrive until 21.20pm.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/STEPHEN-CARPENTER.htm

Maria Rosa says an English tourist arrived at the Millenium at 22.00 asking if anyone had seen a child.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARIA_ROSA.htm

Emma Wilding says she heard about the disappearance at 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

Ricardo Alexandre da Luz Oliveira says the whole group had gone from the table at 21.45
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RICARDO-A-D-L-OLIVEIRA.htm

Barend Jan Jacob Weijdom says he heard the news before 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/BAREND_WEIJDOM.htm

[jassi]

According to DCI Redwood a forensic analysis of the timeline for the evening of 3rd May was carried out and it showed an opportunity for Madeleine to be taken btween 9.30pm and 10pm.

Heriberto Janosch has said he conducted a system analysis of the timeline which told him that it was physically impossible for the McCanns to have been involved in Madeleine's disappearance.

I have no fancy computer system, but I thought it was worth a look at the timeline. Rather than looking at individual statements I decided to take the typed timeline produced by the group as their definitive account because Russell O'Brien said;

that was a timeline that was made purely by the nine of us
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RUSSELL-OBRIEN_ROGATORY.htm

Having had input from all those present this timeline is the best effort of all nine people.

20.35   Gerry & Kate at restaurant      
20.40   Jane Tanner at restaurant      
20.42   Matt and Rachael at restaurant      
20.45   Russell at restaurant      
20.55   Matt 1st check                                                Passes the Paynes and Dianne Webster
20.57   Matt listens      
21.00   Matt returns 1st check                                Starters ordered   
21.05   GM 1st check      
21.15   Jane sighting                                                GM & JEZ talking north of gate.   
21.20   Jane returns                                                Starters have arrived   
21.25   Matt and Russ go check      
21.30   Matt McCann apartment check      
21.35   Matt returns from  McCann apartment check       Mains have arrived   
21.40   Jane relieves Russ      
21.45   Russ returns      
21.55   Russ food served      
22.00   Kate check                                                        Searches all rooms and wardrobes then heads back   
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_3_MAY_07.htm

We can see the 15 minute gap between 21.45 and 22.00 which Redwood identified. Previously there were only 5 minute gaps.

It takes Matt 5 minutes to do a listening check of three apartments, and it takes Jane 5 minutes to do an inside check on her children only. When Matt does his second check it takes him 10 minutes because he checks two apartments and speaks to Russell also. Gerald visited the bathroom and had a moment n the bedroom, so he was likely to have spent 5 minutes in his apartment, then 5 minutes chatting. As Kate searched the apartment, the alarm was probably raised between 5 and 10 minutes after she went to check.

There are some statements by those outside the group which either contradict their timeline or cast doubt on it.
 
Stephen Carpenter thought they were all seated at approx. 21.30pm. If he's correct it's unlikely that the starters didn't arrive until 21.20pm.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/STEPHEN-CARPENTER.htm

Maria Rosa says an English tourist arrived at the Millenium at 22.00 asking if anyone had seen a child.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARIA_ROSA.htm

Emma Wilding says she heard about the disappearance at 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

Ricardo Alexandre da Luz Oliveira says the whole group had gone from the table at 21.45
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RICARDO-A-D-L-OLIVEIRA.htm

Barend Jan Jacob Weijdom says he heard the news before 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/BAREND_WEIJDOM.htm

Jane certainly wolfed her main course down if she was able to leave by that time.

[G-Unit]

Jane certainly wolfed her main course down if she was able to leave by that time.

The actual quote is;

by which time main courses are arriving or being eaten. MO tells JT that Evie unwell.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_3_MAY_07.htm

Russell and Matt seemed to eat their starters in around five minutes.

[pathfinder73]

Matt left at 8:55 to go fetch the Payne's because they were late arriving again. When he met and passed them he did a listening check just before 9.

When he got back to the table at around 9 he said Gerry left to check which he thought to be odd as he'd just checked.

Jane said she left at 9:10.

Matt and Russ said they left at 9:25 after finishing their starters.

Main meals arriving from 9:30. Jane ate her's quickly and left around 9:38.

Russell was in the apartment with Jane for about 5 minutes when he returned to the table at 9:45.

Matt said Kate left the table much earlier than 10 to check. He gave the time as 9:50. In this same interview he was accused by the PJ of removing Madeleine. Seems that was a good incentive to tell the truth about the timeline.

Conclusion: 10pm is assumed as the last checking time because of the every 30 minutes schedule the McCanns say happened i.e. 9, 9:30 so the next one is presumed to be 10. As I've shown before nobody on that table knew the actual time but Matt gave a clear time which corresponds with the waiter who served Russell his thin steak as he described it (earlier than 10). Russell only had a few bites of his steak according to Dianne when Kate came running back raising the alarm. Then we have Gerry's statement and an exact time of 10:03 when Kate left the table to check which totally contradicts the earlier time of Matt and the waiter. 10:03 is a very important time in this case.

[G-Unit]

The problem with the times isn't just that they don't agree with each other, they don't agree with the jointly produced timelines either.

David Payne helped to produce the timelines written by Russell on the book covers. Both said they were all at the restaurant at 20.45. By the afternoon of 4th David stated that he arrived there at 20.55.

[pathfinder73]

The problem with the times isn't just that they don't agree with each other, they don't agree with the jointly produced timelines either.

David Payne helped to produce the timelines written by Russell on the book covers. Both said they were all at the restaurant at 20.45. By the afternoon of 4th David stated that he arrived there at 20.55.

They all seemed to agree in their rog interviews that they were the last to arrive all the time at the tapas bar i.e. always late. Those first timelines are nothing like in the rogs i.e Jane leaving at 9:20 is ridiculous if her partner Russ left at 9:25. They would be meeting each other 

[Gadfly1.3]

Russell O'Brien claims this 'collective' timeline was put together at David Payne's suggestion. 

[pathfinder73]

4078 'Okay. So take me through from there then, what happened after that''

Reply 'So, erm, back to the table, erm, we have, oh, back to the table, Gerry got up to go and, to go and check on his kids, I mean, and I'd come back and said, you know, I didn't hear any noise when I listened outside your room, so I thought it was a little bit odd that, you know, not kind of a wounded pride that he sort of didn't trust me, but, erm, I just thought, oh, you know, I've just checked you don't really need to check and sort of, you know, sort of go back, but, erm, he sort of got up and went back to check on, erm, on his kids. But, you know, you don't, you know, we're all sort of responsible for our own children and you wouldn't sort of say, you know, you don't need to do that, I just sort of felt, oh I've listened, you don't need to do that because I've kind of just done it, but I hadn't gone into the apartment, so, erm'.
 
4078 'Did you actually say that or you just thought that to yourself''

Reply 'Yeah, I thought that, you know, I'd said that everything was sort of quiet, I listened outside the shutters, but, you know, they went back up, erm, and said he was going to check.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MATTHEW-OLDFIELD-ROGATORY.htm

[pathfinder73]

Russell O'Brien claims this 'collective' timeline was put together at David Payne's suggestion. 

Mr Payne who arranged the holiday. Told YM to go away. Got two new Samsung PAYG mobiles on the 4 May. The timeline should include 6:30.

1485 "Can you think of anybody who went, who left the table that night to other than look after the children''

 Reply "No, I can't, I can't think of any other reason.'

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/DAVID-PAYNE-ROGATORY.htm

No err (there's 1,360). Interesting.

[Eleanor]

Sorry, can't cope with this.  Does it have any purpose?  And if so, what.

[carlymichelle]

Sorry, can't cope with this.  Does it have any purpose?  And if so, what.

why cant  you  cope with it?? a  forum is to discuss things

[G-Unit]

Sorry, can't cope with this.  Does it have any purpose?  And if so, what.

The purpose is to look at the most important couple of hours of the holiday. Everything rests on the timeline. Whether, how and when the children were checked; the time available for any abduction to take place and the time that the alarm was raised.

There are statements in the files which cast doubt on the timeline given by the group. The PJ seem to have ignored them.

The Met also seem to have accepted the group timeline and ignored statements which disagreed with it. They may have statements which are not available to the public but there's no evidence that they re-interviewed those who remembered things differently at the time, so those statements still need explanation.

Heriberto Janosch has spent a lot of time researching this case and has said his analysis of the timeline led him to the belief that stranger abduction is the only possible explanation. Unfortunately his description of his analysis is very vague, so it can't be independently assessed. Until it can, it amounts to opinion only IMO.

[ferryman]

The purpose is to look at the most important couple of hours of the holiday. Everything rests on the timeline. Whether, how and when the children were checked; the time available for any abduction to take place and the time that the alarm was raised.

There are statements in the files which cast doubt on the timeline given by the group. The PJ seem to have ignored them.

The Met also seem to have accepted the group timeline and ignored statements which disagreed with it. They may have statements which are not available to the public but there's no evidence that they re-interviewed those who remembered things differently at the time, so those statements still need explanation.

Heriberto Janosch has spent a lot of time researching this case and has said his analysis of the timeline led him to the belief that stranger abduction is the only possible explanation. Unfortunately his description of his analysis is very vague, so it can't be independently assessed. Until it can, it amounts to opinion only IMO.

Why?

Scotland Yard and the PJ have already done all that and are pursuing lines of enquiry not remotely connected with the McCanns or any of their friends.

Why do we suppose amateur sleuths on the net might do any better?

[jassi]

Sorry, can't cope with this. Does it have any purpose? And if so, what.

Is that for you to decide? Thread has obviously been approved by Admin.

[G-Unit]

Why?

Scotland Yard and the PJ have already done all that and are pursuing lines of enquiry not remotely connected with the McCanns or any of their friends.

Why do we suppose amateur sleuths on the net might do any better?

I have explained why. I and others have highlighted problems with the group's timeline which are not explained. I would be grateful for cites as to what lines of inquiry the two police forces are following at the present time, because I have no idea.