Analysis of the timeline

[Angelo222]

According to DCI Redwood a forensic analysis of the timeline for the evening of 3rd May was carried out and it showed an opportunity for Madeleine to be taken btween 9.30pm and 10pm.

Heriberto Janosch has said he conducted a system analysis of the timeline which told him that it was physically impossible for the McCanns to have been involved in Madeleine's disappearance.

I have no fancy computer system, but I thought it was worth a look at the timeline. Rather than looking at individual statements I decided to take the typed timeline produced by the group as their definitive account because Russell O'Brien said;

that was a timeline that was made purely by the nine of us
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RUSSELL-OBRIEN_ROGATORY.htm

Having had input from all those present this timeline is the best effort of all nine people.

20.35   Gerry & Kate at restaurant      
20.40   Jane Tanner at restaurant      
20.42   Matt and Rachael at restaurant      
20.45   Russell at restaurant      
20.55   Matt 1st check                                                Passes the Paynes and Dianne Webster
20.57   Matt listens      
21.00   Matt returns 1st check                                Starters ordered   
21.05   GM 1st check      
21.15   Jane sighting                                                GM & JEZ talking north of gate.   
21.20   Jane returns                                                Starters have arrived   
21.25   Matt and Russ go check      
21.30   Matt McCann apartment check      
21.35   Matt returns from  McCann apartment check        Mains have arrived   
21.40   Jane relieves Russ      
21.45   Russ returns      
21.55   Russ food served      
22.00   Kate check                                                        Searches all rooms and wardrobes then heads back   
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_3_MAY_07.htm

We can see the 15 minute gap between 21.45 and 22.00 which Redwood identified. Previously there were only 5 minute gaps.

It takes Matt 5 minutes to do a listening check of three apartments, and it takes Jane 5 minutes to do an inside check on her children only. When Matt does his second check it takes him 10 minutes because he checks two apartments and speaks to Russell also. Gerald visited the bathroom and had a moment n the bedroom, so he was likely to have spent 5 minutes in his apartment, then 5 minutes chatting. As Kate searched the apartment, the alarm was probably raised between 5 and 10 minutes after she went to check.

There are some statements by those outside the group which either contradict their timeline or cast doubt on it.
 
Stephen Carpenter thought they were all seated at approx. 21.30pm. If he's correct it's unlikely that the starters didn't arrive until 21.20pm.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/STEPHEN-CARPENTER.htm

Maria Rosa says an English tourist arrived at the Millenium at 22.00 asking if anyone had seen a child.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARIA_ROSA.htm

Emma Wilding says she heard about the disappearance at 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

Ricardo Alexandre da Luz Oliveira says the whole group had gone from the table at 21.45
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RICARDO-A-D-L-OLIVEIRA.htm

Barend Jan Jacob Weijdom says he heard the news before 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/BAREND_WEIJDOM.htm

We don't know what went on though between 5.30pm and 8.30pm, Dr Payne tells one story while Kate tells another.

[Brietta]

It has been documented in the press who the PJ have interviewed on behalf of OG. None of those in my opening post were among them. They could have interviewed Carpenter and Emma Wilding without it being in the public domain, but even so, none of their memories can be expected to have improved/changed over time.

I have cited in my opening post, why should I repeat them?

One can only suppose that your reluctance to give a specific quotation in support of your specific statement is because you are unable to do so ... or you fear your interpretation may not be supported bearing in mind Mr Capenter's statement which is in existence but to which we are not privy.

If you are unable to support your argument in the concise way we have come to expect from you, perhaps you should consider amending by removing unsupported allegations from your statements.

[stephen25000]

One can only suppose that your reluctance to give a specific quotation in support of your specific statement is because you are unable to do so ... or you fear your interpretation may not be supported bearing in mind Mr Capenter's statement which is in existence but to which we are not privy.

If you are unable to support your argument in the concise way we have come to expect from you, perhaps you should consider amending by removing unsupported allegations from your statements.

Perhaps Brietta you can explain why david paynes and late mccanns accounts of events don't tally ?

[Angelo222]

You have said that there are those who were there on the night and who disagreed with the timeline of the McCann party ... is an allegation that will require a cite.

I don't think so Brie.  There are numerous statements which conflict with the tapas' version of events to one extent or another.  I'm not saying one party was correct and the other lied, what I am saying is that there are conflicts and G-unit is correct to point this out.  One more reason why a full reconstruction should have been undertaken imo.

[G-Unit]

Having had input from all those present this timeline is the best effort of all nine people.

20.35   Gerry & Kate at restaurant     
20.40   Jane Tanner at restaurant     
20.42   Matt and Rachael at restaurant     
20.45   Russell at restaurant     
20.55   Matt 1st check                                                Passes the Paynes and Dianne Webster
20.57   Matt listens     
21.00   Matt returns 1st check                                Starters ordered   
21.05   GM 1st check     
21.15   Jane sighting                                                GM & JEZ talking north of gate.   
21.20   Jane returns                                                Starters have arrived, Gerry has returned.
21.25   Matt and Russ go check     
21.30   Matt McCann apartment check     
21.35   Matt returns from  McCann apartment check        Mains have arrived   
21.40   Jane relieves Russ     
21.45   Russ returns     
21.55   Russ food served     
22.00   Kate check                                                        Searches all rooms and wardrobes then heads back   
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_3_MAY_07.htm

To continue it's now Jane Tanner's turn.

4th May;

She went to the restaurant at 20,30.
At 21.00 Russell arrived, as did the Payne group.
At 21.10 Gerry left, followed by Jane at 21,15.
At 21.30 or 35 Matt and Russell went to check.

10th May

She went to the restaurant at 20.30.
Just before 21.00 Matt went to find the Payne group and he checked at the windows.
At 21.00 Russell arrived.
At 21.10 Gerry went to check.
At 21.15 or 21.20 Jane went to check. On her return Gerry was back at the table.
Russell and Matt left between 21,30 and 21.40 (15 to 20 minutes after Jane)

Jane's rogatory;

At restaurant around 20.30
Russell came around 20.45
Matt went to find the Payne group. who arrived ten or fifteen minutes after everyone else. 20.55 to 21.00 then.
Jane also says the food came 'a lot quicker' because they were late.
Gerry goes to check and Kate comments on him being a long time.
Jane goes 21.05 or 21.10, five or ten minutes after Gerry left. That means Gerry left between 20.55 and and 21.05, earlier than in her first statements.
Jane was half way through her main course when Matt returned.
Five minutes later she went to relieve Russell.
Five minutes later he returned to the restaurant.

I wonder why Jane said in her first two statements that Russell arrived for dinner at 21.00 (later changed to 20.45)?

If she was half way through her main when Matt returned the mains must have been served at 21.30, just ten minutes after the starters.

[G-Unit]

One can only suppose that your reluctance to give a specific quotation in support of your specific statement is because you are unable to do so ... or you fear your interpretation may not be supported bearing in mind Mr Capenter's statement which is in existence but to which we are not privy.

If you are unable to support your argument in the concise way we have come to expect from you, perhaps you should consider amending by removing unsupported allegations from your statements.

I really don't understand why you can't be bothered to read my opening post of the thread where my sources are listed but clearly you can't. I don't make 'unsupported allegations' as you put it. So, just for you;

There are some statements by those outside the group which either contradict their timeline or cast doubt on it.
 
Stephen Carpenter thought they were all seated at approx. 21.30pm. If he's correct it's unlikely that the starters didn't arrive until 21.20pm.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/STEPHEN-CARPENTER.htm

Maria Rosa says an English tourist arrived at the Millenium at 22.00 asking if anyone had seen a child.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARIA_ROSA.htm

Emma Wilding says she heard about the disappearance at 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

Ricardo Alexandre da Luz Oliveira says the whole group had gone from the table at 21.45
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RICARDO-A-D-L-OLIVEIRA.htm

Barend Jan Jacob Weijdom says he heard the news before 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/BAREND_WEIJDOM.htm

[G-Unit]

We don't know what went on though between 5.30pm and 8.30pm, Dr Payne tells one story while Kate tells another.

At the moment I'm working my way through the individual statements and comparing them to each other and to the typed timeline produced by the whole group together.

When I've finished that I'm willing to examine the time between 5.30 and 8.30 and the times after 10pm also.

[Angelo222]

At the moment I'm working my way through the individual statements and comparing them to each other and to the typed timeline produced by the whole group together.

When I've finished that I'm willing to examine the time between 5.30 and 8.30 and the times after 10pm also.

I think you will find it impossible to forensically examine the period between 5.30pm and 8.30pm for obvious reasons.

[pathfinder73]

My timeline agrees with the suspicious phone call checking times. Kate raised the alarm by 9:55. Searches were in the tapas area/gardens and women went back to check on their children when the car driving witness left block 6 at 9:58.

[Brietta]

I don't think so Brie.  There are numerous statements which conflict with the tapas' version of events to one extent or another.  I'm not saying one party was correct and the other lied, what I am saying is that there are conflicts and G-unit is correct to point this out.  One more reason why a full reconstruction should have been undertaken imo.

There are few statements in the files which categorically back up another, Angelo, Jez Wilkin's statement being one which confirmed meeting Gerry on the street returning from his visit to the loo and his check on the children.

Without it one can imagine the dire imaginings which would have been flying from one end of the internet to the other ... it has been bad enough (for the independent witness as well) as it is, without even going near what side of the street they were standing on.
The salient point being they were there.

Because people weren't timing themselves with a stopwatch ... and because without benefit of CCTV there is no definitive proof of everyone's recall including the staff ... it is risible to suppose the timeline can be anything other than approximations.

The full reconstruction should of course have taken place as early as possible when the staff were available; residents and some holidaymakers were available; witnesses were available ... but we have had quite lengthy discussions on other threads as to why that did not happen.

[Angelo222]

There are few statements in the files which categorically back up another, Angelo, Jez Wilkin's statement being one which confirmed meeting Gerry on the street returning from his visit to the loo and his check on the children.

Without it one can imagine the dire imaginings which would have been flying from one end of the internet to the other ... it has been bad enough (for the independent witness as well) as it is, without even going near what side of the street they were standing on.
The salient point being they were there.

Because people weren't timing themselves with a stopwatch ... and because without benefit of CCTV there is no definitive proof of everyone's recall including the staff ... it is risible to suppose the timeline can be anything other than approximations.

The full reconstruction should of course have taken place as early as possible when the staff were available; residents and some holidaymakers were available; witnesses were available ... but we have had quite lengthy discussions on other threads as to why that did not happen.

I agree that timings can only be approximate since with the best will in the world individuals watches could be as much as 10 minutes askew at the best of times.

As far as your last point is concerned however I will never understand how anyone involved in a missing child case can be so bloody selfish as to refuse cooperation with the proper investigative authorities placing their own interests first.  Shame on them all!!

[Brietta]

I agree that timings can only be approximate since with the best will in the world individuals watches could be as much as 10 minutes askew at the best of times.

As far as your last point is concerned however I will never understand how anyone involved in a missing child case can be so bloody selfish as to refuse cooperation with the proper investigative authorities placing their own interests first.  Shame on them all!!

Everyone from one of Mr Amarals friends (was it Sargento?) to Scotland Yard to the Porto Policia Judiciaria managed to get information from reconstructing the events of that night.
Their information must have come (as verified by DCI Redwood) from witness statements in the files and an analysis of the timelines.

After their personal experience of the Portuguese police and witnessing the friends who they knew to be innocent having been constituted arguidos in their daughter's disappearance ... they would have been remiss not to have taken legal advice about what they suspected was an investigation into them and nothing to do with helping find out what happened to Madeleine.

[G-Unit]

Having had input from all those present this timeline is the best effort of all nine people.

20.35   Gerry & Kate at restaurant     
20.40   Jane Tanner at restaurant     
20.42   Matt and Rachael at restaurant     
20.45   Russell at restaurant     
20.55   Matt 1st check                                                Passes the Paynes and Dianne Webster
20.57   Matt listens     
21.00   Matt returns 1st check                                Starters ordered   
21.05   GM 1st check     
21.15   Jane sighting                                                GM & JEZ talking north of gate.   
21.20   Jane returns                                                Starters have arrived, Gerry has returned.
21.25   Matt and Russ go check     
21.30   Matt McCann apartment check     
21.35   Matt returns from  McCann apartment check        Mains have arrived   
21.40   Jane relieves Russ     
21.45   Russ returns     
21.55   Russ food served     
22.00   Kate check                                                        Searches all rooms and wardrobes then heads back   
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_3_MAY_07.htm

Russell next.

4th May

20,30 Jane to restaurant
20.45 Russell to restaurant
20.50 The Payne group arrive.
Just after 21.00 Matt goes to check after meals ordered.
Five minutes later Gerry and Jane go to check at almost the same time.
Jane returns followed by Gerry at 21.25 or 21.30 and they ate the starters.
21.35 to 21.40 he and Matt go to check. He stays in his apartment.
Matt returns to restaurant at 21.40 or 21.45.
Jane arrives to relieve (he he) him fifteen minutes after finishing dinner.
21.55 he returns to restaurant where his fod has been waiting for five or ten minutes.
22.00 Kate goes to check.

11th May

20,35 or 20.40 Jane to restaurant.
20.45 he joins her
20.55 the Paynes arrive
21.00 Matt checks.
21.05 Gerry checks
21.10-21.15 Jane checks.
Not sure who returned first.
21.25 he and Matt check.
21.40 Jane comes to relieve him.
21.55 to restaurant. Everyone had finished their mains.
His dinner served 22.00 to 22.05.
22.00 Kate goes to check.

Rogatory interview.

20.40 Jane went to dinner.
21.00 Matt checked and looked for the Payne party.
21.05 or 21.10 Gerry checked, returning around 21.20.
Jane went and was gone a couple of minutes.
He and Matt checked
21.40 Jane came to relieve him.
21.45 he goes for his dinner.
21.55 his food arrives and Kate goes to check at around the same time.

Russell was seated next to Dianne with Matt on her other side. His first two statements have the Paynes arriving before Matt's 21.00 check.

Russell thinks Gerry was away for quite a long time.

[jassi]

HOLMES must have blown a few chips trying to deal with that lot

[G-Unit]

Everyone from one of Mr Amarals friends (was it Sargento?) to Scotland Yard to the Porto Policia Judiciaria managed to get information from reconstructing the events of that night.
Their information must have come (as verified by DCI Redwood) from witness statements in the files and an analysis of the timelines.

After their personal experience of the Portuguese police and witnessing the friends who they knew to be innocent having been constituted arguidos in their daughter's disappearance ... they would have been remiss not to have taken legal advice about what they suspected was an investigation into them and nothing to do with helping find out what happened to Madeleine.

So a reconstruction wouldn't have helped in finding out what happened to Madeleine? If the reconstruction showed no opportunity for an abduction that would have helped enormously.

A timed reconstruction of a hypothetical abduction would also have been very useful.

It would be very interesting to see how long it would take to quietly open the shutters from the outside and to see if a closed but not locked window could then be easily slid open from outside.

It would be very interesting to see if someone entering through the patio doors could be seen from the restaurant, and how long it would take them to negotiate the two cots, open the window and shutters, pick up a child and exit.

Various scenarios should have been tested and timed imo, with or without the T9 being present.