Author Topic: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?  (Read 18380 times)

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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #90 on: June 20, 2017, 08:46:33 AM »
IYO

It was taken 4 months after the event
It is non verbatim and recorded in a different  language to what it was spoken in
We do not know how good the translator was but we do know the pj we're using members of the public
Can we therefore rely on it's accuracy
No we cant
It is therefore unreliable
No imo

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #91 on: June 20, 2017, 09:31:33 AM »
IYO
Does anyone have a different opinion to mine?  Does anyone really believe 99.99% of missing children are due to the parents?  Does anyone think that the McCanns stayed out for two late nights in a row?
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Offline Innominate

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #92 on: June 20, 2017, 10:44:07 AM »
Does anyone have a different opinion to mine?  Does anyone really believe 99.99% of missing children are due to the parents?  Does anyone think that the McCanns stayed out for two late nights in a row?

Out of interest I've looked at the statistics from the US.

US Source : https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/o[Name removed]dp/196465.pdf

There is uncertainty in the numbers and the estimates are from the US

Of the 797,500 children reported missing 12,100 + 56,500 were defined as being abducted (non-family + family)

12,100 + 56,500 = 68,600

Of this total 90 are recorded as a stereotypical kidnapping, which is alleged to be the case with MBM.

90 / 68,000 is < 0.005%

Most non-family abductions are presumably very short lived. The fact that MBM had been missing overnight may have affected how YM viewed the statistics, e.g 90 / ( 90 + 56,500 ). Who knows exactly what she meant without further clarification and questioning?

*Stereotypical kidnappings are the particular type of nonfamily abduction that receives the most media attention and involves a stranger or slight acquaintance who detains the child overnight, transports the child at least 50 miles, holds the child for ransom, abducts the child with intent to keep the child permanently, or kills the child. They represent an extremely small portion of all missing children.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #93 on: June 21, 2017, 07:54:45 AM »
Certainly some large sample sizes there so the stats would be reliable.  Thanks for finding those figures.
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #94 on: June 21, 2017, 08:29:51 AM »
Out of interest I've looked at the statistics from the US.

US Source : https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/o[Name removed]dp/196465.pdf

There is uncertainty in the numbers and the estimates are from the US

Of the 797,500 children reported missing 12,100 + 56,500 were defined as being abducted (non-family + family)

12,100 + 56,500 = 68,600

Of this total 90 are recorded as a stereotypical kidnapping, which is alleged to be the case with MBM.

90 / 68,000 is < 0.005%

Most non-family abductions are presumably very short lived. The fact that MBM had been missing overnight may have affected how YM viewed the statistics, e.g 90 / ( 90 + 56,500 ). Who knows exactly what she meant without further clarification and questioning?

*Stereotypical kidnappings are the particular type of nonfamily abduction that receives the most media attention and involves a stranger or slight acquaintance who detains the child overnight, transports the child at least 50 miles, holds the child for ransom, abducts the child with intent to keep the child permanently, or kills the child. They represent an extremely small portion of all missing children.
I don't agree that the McCann case is a stereotypical ALLEGED abduction.  I think the main difference we need to consider is whether it is a family or non-family situation and they were 3 times more likely to be family as opposed to non-family.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 12:31:39 PM by stephen25000 »
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #95 on: June 21, 2017, 12:23:04 PM »
I don't agree that the McCann case is a stereotypical abduction.  I think the main difference we need to consider is whether it is a family or non-family situation and they were 3 times more likely to be family as opposed to non-family.

I'm afraid  it isnt
Very unlikely  to be family
You need to look more closely at the statisics

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #96 on: June 21, 2017, 12:44:23 PM »
I'm afraid  it isnt
Very unlikely  to be family
You need to look more closely at the statisics
Would you care to explain your view.  I read various charts but this one "Nonfamily abduction 58,200
Family abduction 203,900"
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Offline Brietta

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #97 on: June 21, 2017, 01:18:44 PM »
Would you care to explain your view.  I read various charts but this one "Nonfamily abduction 58,200
Family abduction 203,900"

Think of it in terms of the breakdown of relationships and subsequent child custody disputes ... which will probably account for the majority of such abductions.

The situation confronting Madeleine McCann in Portugal is in an entirely different category.
"All I'm going to say is that we've conducted a very serious investigation and there's no indication that Madeleine McCann's parents are connected to her disappearance. On the other hand, we have a lot of evidence pointing out that Christian killed her," Wolter told the "Friday at 9"....

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #98 on: June 21, 2017, 01:28:36 PM »
Would you care to explain your view.  I read various charts but this one "Nonfamily abduction 58,200
Family abduction 203,900"

If you look at family abductions they almost always involve custody disputes
You are applying your statistics blindly and incorrectly


Offline G-Unit

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #99 on: June 21, 2017, 01:31:13 PM »
I don't agree that the McCann case is a stereotypical ALLEGED abduction.  I think the main difference we need to consider is whether it is a family or non-family situation and they were 3 times more likely to be family as opposed to non-family.

It has yet to be proved that it was an abduction, let alone what type of abduction.
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #100 on: June 21, 2017, 01:57:31 PM »
It has yet to be proved that it was an abduction, let alone what type of abduction.
I would say it has been proved that abduction is by far the most likely

Offline G-Unit

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #101 on: June 21, 2017, 02:42:00 PM »
I would say it has been proved that abduction is by far the most likely

I know you would. I would say otherwise.
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Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #102 on: June 21, 2017, 02:53:09 PM »
I know you would. I would say otherwise.
Where's the emoticon for flame-grilling?   8)-))) 
What's up, old man?

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #103 on: June 21, 2017, 03:12:44 PM »
I know you would. I would say otherwise.
As I have said before we would need to define what prove means first and I don't think any other poster has realised this

Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Was Pamela Fenn having senior moments?
« Reply #104 on: June 21, 2017, 04:53:14 PM »
I would say it has been proved that abduction is by far the most likely

By whom?
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey