Author Topic: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk  (Read 103299 times)

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Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #255 on: March 18, 2018, 09:58:17 PM »
I've never claimed any different... I'm highlighting the meaning of the word.. Proof... Which is, an oft used but not defined word

If you knew anything about law you would know definitions are a moveable feast.
That's why pretty well every law and standard form of contract has a section entitled "Definitions".
Which proof would you like to discuss?
Proof of fact
Proof of theory
Proof of concept
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #256 on: March 18, 2018, 10:04:13 PM »
If you knew anything about law you would know definitions are a moveable feast.
That's why pretty well every law and standard form of contract has a section entitled "Definitions".
Which proof would you like to discuss?
Proof of fact
Proof of theory
Proof of concept

You have missed, the, point... I'm talking about the meaning of the, word proof

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #257 on: March 18, 2018, 10:30:42 PM »
It speaks of being a witness in the case... So looks, you are wrong on that one too
So you say but I don't believe you.
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Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #258 on: March 18, 2018, 11:07:40 PM »
You have missed, the, point... I'm talking about the meaning of the, word proof

So am I. In the English language it can be a noun an adjective or a verb, having that many variations of meaning it may help were you a little more specific.
Edit: Deleted off topic posting.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 01:19:54 AM by Robittybob1 »
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline sadie

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #259 on: March 19, 2018, 12:19:11 AM »
So am I. In the English language it can be a noun an adjective or a verb, having that many variations of meaning it may help were you a little more specific.


YAWN

Oh dear, please pardon me, but what has this to do with the sort of proof Davel was talking about? 

In my opinion, unnecessary, and way off topic Alice.

Offline G-Unit

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #260 on: March 19, 2018, 07:02:56 AM »
As I have, said... Exactly  as it's, done in a court of law..
Im happy to talk figures....3 possibilities

first theparents...highly unlikely based on the evidence...but lets be generous...15%
wokae and wandered...highly unlikely base on the final report...but lets be generous...25%


That leaves abduction at 60 % proved on the balance of probabilities

Those percentages are all 'in your opinion' so not definitive in my opinion.
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #261 on: March 19, 2018, 07:04:41 AM »
Those percentages are all 'in your opinion' so not definitive in my opinion.

My opinion based on the evidence... A guilty. Not guilty verdict in court... Is an opinion based on the evidence..

Offline G-Unit

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #262 on: March 19, 2018, 07:15:56 AM »
My opinion based on the evidence... A guilty. Not guilty verdict in court... Is an opinion based on the evidence..

No, based on your opinion of the evidence. Looking at the same evidence the PJ and the prosecutor couldn't even identify the crime. You think you can, but it's just opinion imo.
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #263 on: March 19, 2018, 07:19:17 AM »
No, based on your opinion of the evidence. Looking at the same evidence the PJ and the prosecutor couldn't even identify the crime. You think you can, but it's just opinion imo.
My opinion based on the evidence... I haven't identified the crime so you are 100% wrong on that one... I've given three options

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #264 on: March 19, 2018, 07:27:39 AM »
So you say but I don't believe you.

I and don't accept much of what you say

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #265 on: March 19, 2018, 07:38:43 AM »
I and don't accept much of what you say
Fair enough we know where we stand.
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #266 on: March 19, 2018, 07:41:23 AM »
Fair enough we know where we stand.

You have referred to me as confused..I would say you are very confused... Particularly on the significance of the statistics

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #267 on: March 19, 2018, 08:06:04 AM »
You have given me food for thought...
If it went to court now.... Based on the evidence... The mccanns, would be found not guilty..
So based on that, we, can put their involvement  at Max 17 %...so my 15% was, pretty good

You seem to have got it back to front. Based on Alice’s 83%, if they were found not guilty it would put their involvement at 82.999% or less. Then again you appear to be getting probability of involvement mixed up with level of involvement.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #268 on: March 19, 2018, 08:11:12 AM »
You seem to have got it back to front. Based on Alice’s 83%, if they were found not guilty it would put their involvement at 82.999% or less. Then again you appear to be getting probability of involvement mixed up with level of involvement.

ive got nothing back to front...not guilty would signify a 17 % probabilty that they were involved with maddies disappearnace and an 83% probablity that they were not involved...which makes my initial estimte of 15% a pretty good estimate which contradicts your claim I wa simply aking figures up

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Latest theory lands on Portuguese AG's desk
« Reply #269 on: March 19, 2018, 08:14:52 AM »
so we have a real situation...not made up...that based on the evidence we are aware of...a figure of 15% is a realistic estmate....based on logic