Theory #1

[Innominate]

OK, we won't turn this into yet another cadaver dog thread.

Turning to Silva's expert opinion, couldn't it also be undermined because he cannot state a specific time frame during which the scent trail was laid? Furthermore, S&R dogs are trained to track generic human scent in an open environment rather than a person-specific scent in an urban area. Do those facts not fall short of the standard required to develop Theory#1 beyond that stage?

There isn't any indication that Silva did not weigh up the capabilities of the dogs before giving his opinion.

A consideration is that MBM is accepted to be bare footed; this leaves a strong trail in an urban environment, where, generally, there is no possibility of ground disturbance.

The route of the trail ending at the Tapas Bar is consistent with a route MBM may have taken if she wished to find her parents. I believe there is a door between the passageway and the pool area, which is locked at night.

Unless/until the case is solved it remains undetermined what happened to MBM, and all theories are open to being disproved.

[ShiningInLuz]

There isn't any indication that Silva did not weigh up the capabilities of the dogs before giving his opinion.

A consideration is that MBM is accepted to be bare footed; this leaves a strong trail in an urban environment, where, generally, there is no possibility of ground disturbance.

The route of the trail ending at the Tapas Bar is consistent with a route MBM may have taken if she wished to find her parents. I believe there is a door between the passageway and the pool area, which is locked at night.

Unless/until the case is solved it remains undetermined what happened to MBM, and all theories are open to being disproved.

There is no door between the passageway and the pool area.

[misty]

There isn't any indication that Silva did not weigh up the capabilities of the dogs before giving his opinion.

A consideration is that MBM is accepted to be bare footed; this leaves a strong trail in an urban environment, where, generally, there is no possibility of ground disturbance.

The route of the trail ending at the Tapas Bar is consistent with a route MBM may have taken if she wished to find her parents. I believe there is a door between the passageway and the pool area, which is locked at night.

Unless/until the case is solved it remains undetermined what happened to MBM, and all theories are open to being disproved.

In your opinion, do the latter paragraphs of this linked report addressed to Amaral somewhat water-down the results of the S&R dogs?
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/INFORMATION-SERVICE.htm

Perhaps we could then move on to the part of the theory which deals with Madeleine leaving by the front door & why it was closed behind her.

[sadie]

Thank you for taking the time to post the diagram, but for the record I was aware of this diagram.

My original points were:

There are two potential anomalies in the statements with respect to the sighting: (1) GMcC reports the JT as being 50m from the individual, which would place JT at the entrance, and (2) JT reports:

4078    “And was that, is there another pavement there, on the junction?”
Reply    “No, they were on, there’s a junction, this is sort of the road and they were walking along the side of the pavement, then I would then walk along”.
4078    “So they were on the same side that you were about to walk along?”
Reply    “Yeah”.

50m would place JT at around the entrance to Tapas bar i.e. the door where the tracker dog trail was lost.

The second point, which I did not make explicit enough, was that JT uses the word "along" as opposed to the word "across". This could be a Fredudian slip, but only in the sense that her subconscious mind leaked what she had seen, not a deliberate misleading statement or mistake.

If you take these two points, with my view that it is entirely possible JT was mistaken as to the timing of her sighting: i.e. the sighting occurred when she went to 'relieve' ROB, then the following scenario is a possibility:

1. The tracker dog trail ends around the door of the Tapas bar entrance.

2. A third party carried off MBM whilst walking up R. Francisco Gentil Martins.

3. As the third party approached the top of the road, JT exited the Tapas Bar to 'relieve' ROB.

4. JT saw the third party, at a distance of about 50m, who then crossed to the road.

I'm sure many will not agree this happened, and I cannot prove this happened, but it is not a completely unrealistic scenario.

Re. 1 :  The dogs trail actually ends at the locked door to the Tapas area.  The actual Tapas bar is a further crow flies 48 metres into the OC gardens.   Sorry to be picky but I think that detail could be very important

Re. 2  :   As pointed out earlier, the 50 metres quoted is way out and furthermore rediculous because no one could have seen the detail that Jane saw from 50 metres distant along a poorly lit road.
Elsewhere in PJ reports you will find that Jane was thought to have been only about 5 metres from the man (Tannerman) carrying the little girl   

[Innominate]

Perhaps we could then move on to the part of the theory which deals with Madeleine leaving by the front door & why it was closed behind her.

Assuming the front door was shut, and that checking the status of the front door was not overlooked in the all the confusion at the time, then the most likely option would be that it blew shut IMO. The night was breezy, according to witnesses, and the Patio door could be the source of the draft. I'm not aware of any absolute proof this scenario could not have happened.

[Innominate]

There is no door between the passageway and the pool area.

Thank you for the clarification.

[sadie]

There isn't any indication that Silva did not weigh up the capabilities of the dogs before giving his opinion.

A consideration is that MBM is accepted to be bare footed; this leaves a strong trail in an urban environment, where, generally, there is no possibility of ground disturbance.

The route of the trail ending at the Tapas Bar is consistent with a route MBM may have taken if she wished to find her parents. I believe there is a door between the passageway and the pool area, which is locked at night.

Unless/until the case is solved it remains undetermined what happened to MBM, and all theories are open to being disproved.

The GNR dogs followed a trail OUT of the passageways to a lampost by the little car park on Rua Do. Francisco G.M. and the one dog then followed the trail to the entrance to the Tapas area, which was also in the road and NOT in the passageway

[Robittybob1]

There isn't any indication that Silva did not weigh up the capabilities of the dogs before giving his opinion.

A consideration is that MBM is accepted to be bare footed; this leaves a strong trail in an urban environment, where, generally, there is no possibility of ground disturbance.

The route of the trail ending at the Tapas Bar is consistent with a route MBM may have taken if she wished to find her parents. I believe there is a door between the passageway and the pool area, which is locked at night.

Unless/until the case is solved it remains undetermined what happened to MBM, and all theories are open to being disproved.

I think you have your facts wrong here "The route of the trail ending at the Tapas Bar is consistent with a route MBM may have taken if she wished to find her parents. I believe there is a door between the passageway and the pool area, which is locked at night." 
 Please explain.

[Robittybob1]

There is no door between the passageway and the pool area.

Unless the door being spoken of is the door at secondary reception

[Innominate]

I think you have your facts wrong here "The route of the trail ending at the Tapas Bar is consistent with a route MBM may have taken if she wished to find her parents. I believe there is a door between the passageway and the pool area, which is locked at night." 
 Please explain.

In the post I was referring to the trail ending at the secondary reception that leads to the pool area and Tapas Bar. I was sloppy with the language, and I have corrected that in the post.

Unfortunately I believed I had read a comment that there was another entrance from the passageway - a short cut. Obviously this is incorrect.

There is clearly only one entrance, and that is the one I believe was referred to in the report by the dog team.

[Robittybob1]

In the post I was referring to the trail ending at the secondary reception that leads to the pool area and Tapas Bar. I was sloppy with the language, and I have corrected that in the post.

Unfortunately I believed I had read a comment that there was another entrance from the passageway - a short cut. Obviously this is incorrect.

There is clearly only one entrance, and that is the one I believe was referred to in the report by the dog team.

I wonder why that door was not opened for the dog search team.

[Innominate]

Re. 1 :  The dogs trail actually ends at the locked door to the Tapas area.  The actual Tapas bar is a further crow flies 48 metres into the OC gardens.   Sorry to be picky but I think that detail could be very important

Re. 2  :   As pointed out earlier, the 50 metres quoted is way out and furthermore rediculous because no one could have seen the detail that Jane saw from 50 metres distant along a poorly lit road.
Elsewhere in PJ reports you will find that Jane was thought to have been only about 5 metres from the man (Tannerman) carrying the little girl

Re.1 Sloppy terminology which has been corrected.

Re.2

The basic idea is that JT may not have left the table at 9:15 (e.g. see http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=9475.90). Please note I am not ascribing any motive to this - it could just be a simple mistake.

JT is accepted to have left the table to relieve ROB. The precise time of this is not absolutely certain.

She states she noticed the person step off the pavement.

If she saw this person when she went to relieve ROB, then that person could have been on the same side of the road before she noticed them.

The precise distances would not be certain because there are two moving objects. The maximum is 50m (K and GMcM report 50m), but it could be less depending on when she noticed the person.

In my view there is no reason to believe she would not have been able to see the details she reported.

The above is simply based on the theoretical possibility that she got the timing of her sighting wrong.

[misty]

Assuming the front door was shut, and that checking the status of the front door was not overlooked in the all the confusion at the time, then the most likely option would be that it blew shut IMO. The night was breezy, according to witnesses, and the Patio door could be the source of the draft. I'm not aware of any absolute proof this scenario could not have happened.

Due to direction in which the door opened, i.e. clockwise inwards, & its close proximity to the hallway wall situated on the opening side, wouldn't Madeleine have had to open it to at least 25-30° to exit? Factor in the northerly wind against the direction of the door closing, how would the airflow work with sufficient force to slam the door?

[Robittybob1]

Due to direction in which the door opened, i.e. clockwise inwards, & its close proximity to the hallway wall situated on the opening side, wouldn't Madeleine have had to open it to at least 25-30° to exit? Factor in the northerly wind against the direction of the door closing, how would the airflow work with sufficient force to slam the door?

There is a a lot of logic in what you say there Misty.  Thanks for clearing that up.

[misty]

There is a a lot of logic in what you say there Misty.  Thanks for clearing that up.

Physics isn't a strong point of mine, Rob, so if anyone can explain how the door could have slammed shut behind Madeleine I'm happy to accept a scientific explanation. (Cue Alice.......)