Theory #1

[misty]

Exactly correct Misty and this has been the focus of much of my research this year.  Was it possible to shut the door behind you without a key?  We had several threads debating this.  I had come to the conclusion the door latch had been modified so that it wouldn't slam shut,  but no one really agreed.

The point that followed was that if the door could not be shut without a key, and if the door was truly found shut by Kate, and if Madeleine left by the front door, all this could really only be resolved by someone else shutting the front door from the inside and they leaving by the patio door.

Who this someone else could be is open for debate.

If you work on the assumption the front door could be closed without a key, how difficult would that have been for Madeleine?
From the screenshot below, at what height would you estimate the door knob is above the ground (the faint blob above the lock)? There also appears to be a shallow step. As Madeleine was reportedly only around 90cm tall, would she have been able to easily reach that knob & also been able to exert sufficient pulling power to close the door?

[Robittybob1]

If you work on the assumption the front door could be closed without a key, how difficult would that have been for Madeleine?
From the screenshot below, at what height would you estimate the door knob is above the ground (the faint blob above the lock)? There also appears to be a shallow step. As Madeleine was reportedly only around 90cm tall, would she have been able to easily reach that knob & also been able to exert sufficient pulling power to close the door?

IMO if the latch allowed the door to slam shut the door could have been easily slammed shut by Madeleine or by the wind. 

[misty]

IMO if the latch allowed the door to slam shut the door could have been easily slammed shut by Madeleine or by the wind.

I'm not familiar with that particular type of sprung latch so I don't know how easily it would slam shut but I suspect it required more force than your average Yale lock.

[Robittybob1]

I'm not familiar with that particular type of sprung latch so I don't know how easily it would slam shut but I suspect it required more force than your average Yale lock.

To find out is one of the reasons I'm going to PdL and check it out for myself.

[misty]

To find out is one of the reasons I'm going to PdL and check it out for myself.

I hope you won't need to make that visit.
However, back to the theory that Madeleine could have walked the route the tracker dogs followed on the night of 3rd May 2007 at sometime during this present hour. Those who drop-kicked this idea have so far failed to come up with any plausible explanation regarding what happened next without said event being witnessed by anyone else. Evidence-wise, it appears to have the least amount of support .

IMO.

[Robittybob1]

I hope you won't need to make that visit.
However, back to the theory that Madeleine could have walked the route the tracker dogs followed on the night of 3rd May 2007 at sometime during this present hour. Those who drop-kicked this idea have so far failed to come up with any plausible explanation regarding what happened next without said event being witnessed by anyone else. Evidence-wise, it appears to have the least amount of support .

IMO.

Did anyone see Arlindo coming and going?  Did anyone see the Carpenters crossing the road?  No.  So you can presume there are sizeable chunks of time  people could go unobserved by others.
Same could have happened to Madeleine.  Interaction with someone there at the time but unobserved by a 3rd party.

[misty]

Did anyone see Arlindo coming and going?  Did anyone see the Carpenters crossing the road?  No.  So you can presume there are sizeable chunks of time  people could go unobserved by others.
Same could have happened to Madeleine.  Interaction with someone there at the time but unobserved by a 3rd party.

It would be a worthwhile exercise to list all the known people who walked or drove in Rua d Martins between 8.30 & 10pm that night, to determine how long those sizeable chunks of time were, during which a walking Madeleine would not have been seen. Her movement would not have been quick due to lack of suitable footwear.

[Brietta]

Did anyone see Arlindo coming and going?  Did anyone see the Carpenters crossing the road?  No.  So you can presume there are sizeable chunks of time  people could go unobserved by others.
Same could have happened to Madeleine.  Interaction with someone there at the time but unobserved by a 3rd party.

In my opinion we don't know the answer is "no".
Both the PJ and SY reviews found witnesses who had not been interviewed.  There may have been corroboration in the files we have not seen and interviewing those witnesses not interviewed could also have led to corroboration.
The gaps and alleged anomalies in this case which have so troubled some, could simply be as a result of the initial failure to interview witnesses and collate their information.

[John]

I hope you won't need to make that visit.
However, back to the theory that Madeleine could have walked the route the tracker dogs followed on the night of 3rd May 2007 at sometime during this present hour. Those who drop-kicked this idea have so far failed to come up with any plausible explanation regarding what happened next without said event being witnessed by anyone else. Evidence-wise, it appears to have the least amount of support .

IMO.

Why the scent trail ended in the little car park opposite mini reception will remain a mystery. We are entitled however to speculate as to the various possibilities which ultimately ended in her being carried off. Those possibilities include a simple opportunistic abduction from the street or her being run over and then carried off by someone in sheer panic.

What is beyond dispute is that the scent dogs followed Madeleine's scent. The fact that Madeleine was barefoot the night she disappeared gives even more support to this theory.  Had they been following an old scent laid down the previous morning it would not have ended abruptly at the car park.

An incident occurring in the street could have been over very quickly and might not have been witnessed by anyone.  After all, Jane Tanner supposedly walked past both Gerry McCann and Jeremy Wilkins yet neither men saw her?

[Brietta]

It would be a worthwhile exercise to list all the known people who walked or drove in Rua d Martins between 8.30 & 10pm that night, to determine how long those sizeable chunks of time were, during which a walking Madeleine would not have been seen. Her movement would not have been quick due to lack of suitable footwear.

Mr and Mrs Moyes and Jes Wilkins.  Anyone on their way home from having a meal in the tapas (the Carpenters) or elsewhere. Anyone going to or from work.  Individuals having a fly smoke or standing outside the tapas having a break etc

I think there could be a comprehensive list of potential witnesses.

[Brietta]

Why the scent trail ended in the little car park opposite mini reception will remain a mystery. We are entitled however to speculate as to the various possibilities which ultimately ended in her being carried off. Those possibilities include a simple opportunistic abduction from the street or her being run over and then carried off by someone in sheer panic.

What is beyond dispute is that the scent dogs followed Madeleine's scent. The fact that Madeleine was barefoot the night she disappeared gives even more support to this theory.  Had they been following an old scent laid down the previous morning it would not have ended abruptly at the car park.

Didn't the handlers think the dogs had been put off the scent by rubbish? They were air scenting dogs, so that is a possibility rather than Madeleine being bundled into a vehicle where the scent stopped.

[misty]

Mr and Mrs Moyes and Jes Wilkins.  Anyone on their way home from having a meal in the tapas (the Carpenters) or elsewhere. Anyone going to or from work.  Individuals having a fly smoke or standing outside the tapas having a break etc

I think there could be a comprehensive list of potential witnesses.

I agree, Brietta, in the sense that most of the witnesses were only asked if they saw Madeleine or anything unusual.
The massive fly in the ointment to any W&W theory is the man who was seen carrying a child away from the vicinity of Block 5.

[misty]

Why the scent trail ended in the little car park opposite mini reception will remain a mystery. We are entitled however to speculate as to the various possibilities which ultimately ended in her being carried off. Those possibilities include a simple opportunistic abduction from the street or her being run over and then carried off by someone in sheer panic.

What is beyond dispute is that the scent dogs followed Madeleine's scent. The fact that Madeleine was barefoot the night she disappeared gives even more support to this theory.  Had they been following an old scent laid down the previous morning it would not have ended abruptly at the car park.

An incident occurring in the street could have been over very quickly and might not have been witnessed by anyone.  After all, Jane Tanner supposedly walked past both Gerry McCann and Jeremy Wilkins yet neither men saw her?

Do you have a cite, please, for the cleaners providing 5 fresh towels for apartment 5A on 3/5/07? If not, how can you be sure the towel given to the tracker dogs was only used by Madeleine?

[Brietta]

I agree, Brietta, in the sense that most of the witnesses were only asked if they saw Madeleine or anything unusual.
The massive fly in the ointment to any W&W theory is the man who was seen carrying a child away from the vicinity of Block 5.

Logically, I think it highly probable that is the man who is the key to the whole situation.

[misty]

The S&R dogs were given a towel from 5A which was used as a scent control.

Which person in 5A could have:-

1. Used the towel
2. Left by the front door
3. Circumvented Block 5
4. Crossed the road
5. Gone to the Tapas Bar door.

IMO all those elements could be attributed to Gerry on the evening of 3/5 rather than Madeleine.