Theory #1

[G-Unit]

The S&R dogs were given a towel from 5A which was used as a scent control.

Which person in 5A could have:-

1. Used the towel
2. Left by the front door
3. Circumvented Block 5
4. Crossed the road
5. Gone to the Tapas Bar door.

IMO all those elements could be attributed to Gerry on the evening of 3/5 rather than Madeleine.

The patrol dogs were given Madeleine's pink blanket to sniff and were the first to follow the route just after 02.30 on 4th.

They were given a pink/orange blanket that the child had been covered with in her bed.
http://mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/CARLOS-LACAO.htm

[Robittybob1]

Logically, I think it highly probable that is the man who is the key to the whole situation.

'

The problem I have with that person being the abductor would be that he had to be in the apartment at the same time as Gerry doing his check.  Just prior to Gerry going there Matt had been around the building, and prior to that the Paynes had been slow at coming down to the Tapas.  I fail to see anyone feeling confident or having enough time to enter the build.  Around 9:00 PM it was just getting dark, hardly the time anyone would be considering kidnapping a child IMO.

[Innominate]

Why the scent trail ended in the little car park opposite mini reception will remain a mystery. We are entitled however to speculate as to the various possibilities which ultimately ended in her being carried off. Those possibilities include a simple opportunistic abduction from the street or her being run over and then carried off by someone in sheer panic.

What is beyond dispute is that the scent dogs followed Madeleine's scent. The fact that Madeleine was barefoot the night she disappeared gives even more support to this theory.  Had they been following an old scent laid down the previous morning it would not have ended abruptly at the car park.

An incident occurring in the street could have been over very quickly and might not have been witnessed by anyone.  After all, Jane Tanner supposedly walked past both Gerry McCann and Jeremy Wilkins yet neither men saw her?

Agreed. Both those possibilities were in the original post.

There are sufficient gaps. The Carpenters saw no one else when they returned to their apartment without seeing anyone, or being witnessed, so logically it is possible to pass the area without seeing anyone or being seen. They also report parked cars by the side of the road; when were these moved?

JT was not seen even when there were two potential witnesses in the immediate vicinity (assuming JT's recollection is correct).

[barrier]

Mr and Mrs Moyes and Jes Wilkins.  Anyone on their way home from having a meal in the tapas (the Carpenters) or elsewhere. Anyone going to or from work.  Individuals having a fly smoke or standing outside the tapas having a break etc

I think there could be a comprehensive list of potential witnesses.

Who saw nothing of note perchance.

[Brietta]

Who saw nothing of note perchance.

Who may have seen nothing of note at the time because until Madeleine vanished and the word was put out it was just another normal day for everyone in Luz.

[Brietta]

'

The problem I have with that person being the abductor would be that he had to be in the apartment at the same time as Gerry doing his check.  Just prior to Gerry going there Matt had been around the building, and prior to that the Paynes had been slow at coming down to the Tapas.  I fail to see anyone feeling confident or having enough time to enter the build.  Around 9:00 PM it was just getting dark, hardly the time anyone would be considering kidnapping a child IMO.

Who knows what goes through the mind of a kidnapper or an individual who gets the adrenaline going by illicitly entering other peoples homes.
When Jane saw the man walking away with the child the street lights were on.
There is nothing to say he wasn't already in the apartment when Gerry returned to do his check.

[Brietta]

Agreed. Both those possibilities were in the original post.

There are sufficient gaps. The Carpenters saw no one else when they returned to their apartment without seeing anyone, or being witnessed, so logically it is possible to pass the area without seeing anyone or being seen. They also report parked cars by the side of the road; when were these moved?

JT was not seen even when there were two potential witnesses in the immediate vicinity (assuming JT's recollection is correct).

No-one that we know of saw Mr and Mrs Moyes on their walk home from the restaurant crossing the car park and entering block five ... but we know they did.

[ShiningInLuz]

No-one that we know of saw Mr and Mrs Moyes on their walk home from the restaurant crossing the car park and entering block five ... but we know they did.

Therein lies one major problem.  People were asked to report if they had seen anything suspicious or abnormal.

Consequently, we have a very limited picture of what normal activities were going on.

[barrier]

Who saw nothing of note perchance.

Who may have seen nothing of note at the time because until Madeleine vanished and the word was put out it was just another normal day for everyone in Luz.

11 yrs and multi millions the nothing of note is probably the gist of it,imo of course.

[jassi]

Therein lies one major problem. People were asked to report if they had seen anything suspicious or abnormal.

Consequently, we have a very limited picture of what normal activities were going on.

Which would suggest that most didn't see anything that they considered suspicious.

[Brietta]

Therein lies one major problem.  People were asked to report if they had seen anything suspicious or abnormal.

Consequently, we have a very limited picture of what normal activities were going on.

Who could determine what was and what was not suspicious or abnormal?  It would have been a monumental task for a police force to plough through statements in an effort to pin point areas of interest to them.
Something which the observer might have considered mundane and not worth reporting could actually have been pivotal if in the hands of the police.
Also,
a) there was the problem of a changeover in holidaymakers, many of whom returned home at the weekend
b) the police were in ignorance of the Smith sighting until a fortnight after the event

Therefore in a fairly static population any anomalies would have stood out like a sore thumb; visitors would not have known the difference.
However since there were no reports of a child wandering about on her own it is unlikely there were any innocent sightings of such.

[Alice Purjorick]

Who knows what goes through the mind of a kidnapper or an individual who gets the adrenaline going by illicitly entering other peoples homes.
When Jane saw the man walking away with the child the street lights were on.
There is nothing to say he wasn't already in the apartment when Gerry returned to do his check.

There was never anything to say the man Jane Tanner saw was carrying Madeleine McCann let alone that he had been in the apartment.

[jassi]

There was never anything to say the man Jane Tanner saw was carrying Madeleine McCann let alone that he had been in the apartment.

Which is the view that OG have decided on.

[John]

I agree, Brietta, in the sense that most of the witnesses were only asked if they saw Madeleine or anything unusual.
The massive fly in the ointment to any W&W theory is the man who was seen carrying a child away from the vicinity of Block 5.

You mean the man known as Tannerman but subsequently referred to as Innocentman given that the nice DCI Redwood all but ruled him out?

[John]

'

The problem I have with that person being the abductor would be that he had to be in the apartment at the same time as Gerry doing his check.  Just prior to Gerry going there Matt had been around the building, and prior to that the Paynes had been slow at coming down to the Tapas.  I fail to see anyone feeling confident or having enough time to enter the build.  Around 9:00 PM it was just getting dark, hardly the time anyone would be considering kidnapping a child IMO.

Another very possible explanation is that Madeleine heard her father interacting with Wilkins outside in the street and thought that she would find her way outside too.