Theory #1

[Robittybob1]

The website itself states:

"Statistics based on observations taken between 06/2013 - 02/2017 daily from 7am to 7pm local time."

and

"Dominant wind direction"

and

"The wind statistics are based on real observations from the weather station at Praia da Luz."

===

Is the screenshot the raw data? It does not look like raw data - I would like see the actual raw observation data that was used to generate the statistics, before drawing any firm conclusions.

If the raw data shows that there are sufficient observations to be reasonably accurate, and the weather station is reliable (a lot of these statistics appear to come from amateur locations) then that would be a question mark over whether the door slammed.

It does not take much of a breeze to slam a door. Once the door starts accelerating under the application of a force it is building up speed, which increases momentum.

Air pressure would be a major contribution.  I couldn't find any YouTube site that discussed the physics of a slamming door.

[Innominate]

Air pressure would be a major contribution.

Perhaps.

Wind shadow effects are another factor, and cross ventilation effects within the apartment 5A could also have been a factor, given the open window.

[Brietta]

Perhaps.

Wind shadow effects are another factor, and cross ventilation effects within the apartment 5A could also have been a factor, given the open window.

Which may be seen in the night time photograph showing the curtains billowing outward at the patio door from a landward direction.

[kizzy]

Any one who's interested in research of the weather, maybe the below link will help interesting read.



http://whatreallyhappenedtomadeleinemccann.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/the-pool-photo-refuses-to-go-away.html

[Innominate]

Which may be seen in the night time photograph showing the curtains billowing outward at the patio door from a landward direction.

Agreed. That is likely showing a through draft at the instant in time the photograph is taken, when the patio doors are visibly, and therefore provably, open.

Cross ventilation effects are not universally straight through, they can double back on themselves.

Wind shadow effects in urban areas could also impact the situation at a micro level.

On a breezy night, with sources of ventilation, I do not see how the front door slamming can be definitively ruled out as a possibility.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Any one who's interested in research of the weather, maybe the below link will help interesting read.



http://whatreallyhappenedtomadeleinemccann.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/the-pool-photo-refuses-to-go-away.html

Wow.  Some people clearly have too much time on their hands.

[Brietta]

Agreed. That is likely showing a through draft at the instant in time the photograph is taken, when the patio doors are visibly, and therefore provably, open.

Cross ventilation effects are not universally straight through, they can double back on themselves.

Wind shadow effects in urban areas could also impact the situation at a micro level.

On a breezy night, with sources of ventilation, I do not see how the front door slamming can be definitively ruled out as a possibility.

The apartment block is in an elevated position above the sea, and night time breeze blowing down towards the sea would in my opinion be capable of causing the effect witnessed and described by Kate at the bedroom window.

Like the blowing door curtain in the crime scene photograph it may have been momentary either due to a sudden gust or as you detailed earlier due to a particular circumstance or set of circumstances within.

The bedroom door slammed shut in the breeze but I don't think the front door would as it is hung to close in the opposite direction from that indicated by the action of the curtains.

In my opinion to slam the front door would require a gust coming from the sea with the effect on the curtains being ... billowing out of the window ... and billowing into the room from the patio door.

[kizzy]

Wow.  Some people clearly have too much time on their hands.

They certainly have, a lot of discussion - on wind temp etc etc.

At a glance seem the link - just about covers everything.

From someone who has done his research, with not only the time but also the knowledge.

[Vertigo Swirl]

They certainly have, a lot of discussion - on wind temp etc etc.

At a glance seem the link - just about covers everything.

From someone who has done his research, with not only the time but also the knowledge.

yes but isn't one of the conclusions based on cloud formations or some such that the Last Photo proves Madeleine died on 29th April?  Pardon me if I don't treat this as a serious body of research.

[kizzy]

yes but isn't one of the conclusions based on cloud formations or some such that the Last Photo proves Madeleine died on 29th April?  Pardon me if I don't treat this as a serious body of research.

No problem - otherers may

[Innominate]

The apartment block is in an elevated position above the sea, and night time breeze blowing down towards the sea would in my opinion be capable of causing the effect witnessed and described by Kate at the bedroom window.

Like the blowing door curtain in the crime scene photograph it may have been momentary either due to a sudden gust or as you detailed earlier due to a particular circumstance or set of circumstances within.

The bedroom door slammed shut in the breeze but I don't think the front door would as it is hung to close in the opposite direction from that indicated by the action of the curtains.

In my opinion to slam the front door would require a gust coming from the sea with the effect on the curtains being ... billowing out of the window ... and billowing into the room from the patio door.

A perfectly valid opinion, but I don't really agree with the last paragraph.

Obviously it is necessary to overcome the static friction to get the door moving, but once the door is moving then it can slam pretty easily, IMO, especially with a source of airflow.

Is it completely impossible that MBM left via the front door, pulled it behind her and thereby overcame the static friction, then air flow and pressure differential finished the job? (rhetorical question)

[misty]

A perfectly valid opinion, but I don't really agree with the last paragraph.

Obviously it is necessary to overcome the static friction to get the door moving, but once the door is moving then it can slam pretty easily, IMO, especially with a source of airflow.

Is it completely impossible that MBM left via the front door, pulled it behind her and thereby overcame the static friction, then air flow and pressure differential finished the job? (rhetorical question)

Not as impossible as pushing a large boulder up an icy mountain!
Moving on from that, in your theory of an interrupted burglary, what would Madeleine's reasons have possibly been to exit via the front door, without her shoes which were pictured in the hall area, towards the source of the disturbance?

[Robittybob1]

A perfectly valid opinion, but I don't really agree with the last paragraph.

Obviously it is necessary to overcome the static friction to get the door moving, but once the door is moving then it can slam pretty easily, IMO, especially with a source of airflow.

Is it completely impossible that MBM left via the front door, pulled it behind her and thereby overcame the static friction, then air flow and pressure differential finished the job? (rhetorical question)

IMO no, because I believe you needed a key to close the door from the outside.

[ShiningInLuz]

Prevailing wind May in Luz NNW 337°
https://www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/praia_da_luz

Screenshot of weather conditions recorded from nearest weather station below.

Taking into consideration
 a) the front door is on the easterly of the north-facing side of the block & set in a recess at the end of a potential wind tunnel
b) the patio door is on the south-facing side, protected in a recess on the patio by an adjacent wall & a balcony overhead
c) the bedroom window beside the front door was open (for the purpose of this theory)

are any of my learned friends/adversaries able to state the probability of the front door slamming shut behind Madeleine?
b) the patio door is on the south

Re the screenshot.  If anyone can produce a link to similar data for 4 May 2007, that could be cross-checked against the various photos and video we have for that date. We would then have some test of its accuracy.

And does the CMoMM data extend to lunchtime on 3 May 2007, a la the Last Photo debate?

[Innominate]

Not as impossible as pushing a large boulder up an icy mountain!
Moving on from that, in your theory of an interrupted burglary, what would Madeleine's reasons have possibly been to exit via the front door, without her shoes which were pictured in the hall area, towards the source of the disturbance?

A key uncertainty is whether the window was unlocked - if it was not then any kind of aborted burglary theory would face a difficulty.

There is no guarantee the disturbance woke her - she could have been woken by the cold and found the window open. Is it impossible that she went outside to take a look, or decided to go and find her parents? Do children diligently put on their shoes?

There is a tracker dog trail - that trail could be relevant to what ultimately happened.

But there are no certainties  - it is a theory.