Theory #1

[misty]

If you ever obtain raw data from Praia da Luz we can analyse it by assigning the observations to bins based on the compass sectors. By that method the variability of the wind direction will be clear.

Otherwise it like saying the average person is 1.8m tall without providing a standard deviation to allow someone to assess the spread.

Moving on. I have suggested a possible reason that MBM may have left the apartment was to find her parents; it is not possible to be certain either way on this point IMO.

LOL You provide the swivel chair & the paper planes, I'll supply the bins & electric fan.

The raw data won't really help to make a definitive decision regarding  whether the wind could have caused the front door to slam. The conditions would need to be replicated to factor in the surrounding structures & the effect they have on the wind force when it reaches the openings on the windward wall of 5A.
To accommodate the requirements of theory#1, we will assume the wind did slam the door shut.

Thank you for the videos of the weather stations.

[misty]

The point of discussing possibilities is not to dismiss them like that.

The Met clearly didn't dismiss the possibility out of hand, borne out by the references to previous local burglaries in the vicinity & the re-questioning of 3 locals who presumably had criminal records for such offences. IIRC a burglary gone wrong was also suggested by the UK police officers to the PJ quite early on in the first investigation.

She can't exit both doors at once, so you have to think like as kid and understand why she would choose one door over the other.

IMO there would have been a few steps prior to Madeleine having to make that choice.
 Assuming that she was both disturbed & frightened by a noise at the window, I think she would have first called out for her parents. When they failed to respond, the next step would be to go to the lounge & their bedroom. Only after discovering that neither Kate nor Gerry were in the apartment would she have had to choose which door to exit if she was intent on seeking them out. Was her decision made with a fearful or calm mind?
The front door was the easiest for Madeleine to access as it wasn't covered by a long curtain but it also led in the direction of the disturbance & darkness.

[Robittybob1]

The Met clearly didn't dismiss the possibility out of hand, borne out by the references to previous local burglaries in the vicinity & the re-questioning of 3 locals who presumably had criminal records for such offences. IIRC a burglary gone wrong was also suggested by the UK police officers to the PJ quite early on in the first investigation.

IMO there would have been a few steps prior to Madeleine having to make that choice.
 Assuming that she was both disturbed & frightened by a noise at the window, I think she would have first called out for her parents. When they failed to respond, the next step would be to go to the lounge & their bedroom. Only after discovering that neither Kate nor Gerry were in the apartment would she have had to choose which door to exit if she was intent on seeking them out. Was her decision made with a fearful or calm mind?
The front door was the easiest for Madeleine to access as it wasn't covered by a long curtain but it also led in the direction of the disturbance & darkness.

But what if someone else came to the patio door, presumably to look out for the kids.  There had been visitors reported the night before so we can't dismiss the same couple interfering again.

[jassi]

The point of discussing possibilities is not to dismiss them like that.

ot when I consider it a waste of time.

[Alice Purjorick]

ot when I consider it a waste of time.

Like second guessing what a four year old thinks and how they will behave consequently?

[Carana]

But what if someone else came to the patio door, presumably to look out for the kids.  There had been visitors reported the night before so we can't dismiss the same couple interfering again.

I have never seen anything to substantiate that "report". I can't now remember where that originated, quite possibly from some forum or other.

[Robittybob1]

I have never seen anything to substantiate that "report". I can't now remember where that originated, quite possibly from some forum or other.

No wasn't this point raised by the McCanns themselves?

[Innominate]

The Met clearly didn't dismiss the possibility out of hand, borne out by the references to previous local burglaries in the vicinity & the re-questioning of 3 locals who presumably had criminal records for such offences. IIRC a burglary gone wrong was also suggested by the UK police officers to the PJ quite early on in the first investigation.

IMO there would have been a few steps prior to Madeleine having to make that choice.
 Assuming that she was both disturbed & frightened by a noise at the window, I think she would have first called out for her parents. When they failed to respond, the next step would be to go to the lounge & their bedroom. Only after discovering that neither Kate nor Gerry were in the apartment would she have had to choose which door to exit if she was intent on seeking them out. Was her decision made with a fearful or calm mind?
The front door was the easiest for Madeleine to access as it wasn't covered by a long curtain but it also led in the direction of the disturbance & darkness.

It is difficult to say. It may depend on whether she was woken up immediately, or there was a delay. Assuming the burglar (and as you say this is based on the OG theory) saw the cots and, presumably, the sleeping children it is plausible that they would abort the attempt to break in.

There is no certainty MBM woke immediately or, really, realsied what had happened. If there was a delay or the breeze/cold woke her then would it be obvious to 4 year old what had happened?

As Alice said it is not too easy to see into the mind of a 4 year old and understand how they may perceive events, or how they may decide to act.

Overall, I'm not sure it is certain there would have been 'flight' response - she may have simply been confused, especially if there was a delay before she woke up.

In this situation the front door seems as good a choice as any other - ultimately the choice may have been fairly arbitrary.

[misty]

It is difficult to say. It may depend on whether she was woken up immediately, or there was a delay. Assuming the burglar (and as you say this is based on the OG theory) saw the cots and, presumably, the sleeping children it is plausible that they would abort the attempt to break in.

There is no certainty MBM woke immediately or, really, realsied what had happened. If there was a delay or the breeze/cold woke her then would it be obvious to 4 year old what had happened?

As Alice said it is not too easy to see into the mind of a 4 year old and understand how they may perceive events, or how they may decide to act.

Overall, I'm not sure it is certain there would have been 'flight' response - she may have simply been confused, especially if there was a delay before she woke up.

In this situation the front door seems as good a choice as any other - ultimately the choice may have been fairly arbitrary.

This particular little girl was rewarded for not leaving her bed if she woke up. I can accept that she may have done so if frightened by a disturbance at the window. What's more difficult to accept is that she didn't seek out her comforter before making the decision to exit the apartment and/or sitting & crying for a while.
If you use the tracker dogs' route as evidence Madeleine wandered via the front door, it's necessary to believe that this scared child chose to go down 2 dark alleyways in search of her parents rather than either going to one of the other apartments or towards the light on the main road. However unpredictable young children's behaviour may be, somehow I don't buy into the idea Madeleine made a conscious decision to follow the route between Blocks 4 & 5.
However, if a hypothetical burglar knocked on the front door after attempting to open the window, there is a possibility Madeleine may have chosen to open the door if asked to do so (in English).

[Robittybob1]

This particular little girl was rewarded for not leaving her bed if she woke up. I can accept that she may have done so if frightened by a disturbance at the window. What's more difficult to accept is that she didn't seek out her comforter before making the decision to exit the apartment and/or sitting & crying for a while.
If you use the tracker dogs' route as evidence Madeleine wandered via the front door, it's necessary to believe that this scared child chose to go down 2 dark alleyways in search of her parents rather than either going to one of the other apartments or towards the light on the main road. However unpredictable young children's behaviour may be, somehow I don't buy into the idea Madeleine made a conscious decision to follow the route between Blocks 4 & 5.
However, if a hypothetical burglar knocked on the front door after attempting to open the window, there is a possibility Madeleine may have chosen to open the door if asked to do so (in English).

As a child woken in the middle of the night would you have answered the door to some voice other than your own parents?  I don't think I would have done that.

[misty]

As a child woken in the middle of the night would you have answered the door to some voice other than your own parents?  I don't think I would have done that.

That would depend very much on what the person said & whether she had already ascertained her parents were nowhere to be seen. Perhaps look up cases where young children have answered the door to intruders (I don't have time right now).

[Robittybob1]

That would depend very much on what the person said & whether she had already ascertained her parents were nowhere to be seen. Perhaps look up cases where young children have answered the door to intruders (I don't have time right now).

I'm not saying it is impossible or it never happens.  I'm asking what you would have done as a child.   

[pathfinder73]

This particular little girl was rewarded for not leaving her bed if she woke up. I can accept that she may have done so if frightened by a disturbance at the window. What's more difficult to accept is that she didn't seek out her comforter before making the decision to exit the apartment and/or sitting & crying for a while.
If you use the tracker dogs' route as evidence Madeleine wandered via the front door, it's necessary to believe that this scared child chose to go down 2 dark alleyways in search of her parents rather than either going to one of the other apartments or towards the light on the main road. However unpredictable young children's behaviour may be, somehow I don't buy into the idea Madeleine made a conscious decision to follow the route between Blocks 4 & 5.
However, if a hypothetical burglar knocked on the front door after attempting to open the window, there is a possibility Madeleine may have chosen to open the door if asked to do so (in English).

Madeleine had awoke and left her room on that holiday according to the McCanns because of crying so I would discard your first sentence. She may have done it again if she was in bed of course.

"She says that on that night, after midnight, Madeleine went to their room and said that her sister Amelie was crying, and sleep with her and Gerry in their room."

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/KATE-MCCANN_ARGUIDO.htm

[misty]

I'm not saying it is impossible or it never happens.  I'm asking what you would have done as a child.

I have no memories of the house I lived in when I was 4, Rob. Later,my bedroom was upstairs & well away from the front door so I wouldn't have heard anyone knocking.

[misty]

Madeleine had awoke and left her room on that holiday according to the McCanns because of crying so I would discard your first sentence. She may have done it again if she was in bed of course.

"She says that on that night, after midnight, Madeleine went to their room and said that her sister Amelie was crying, and sleep with her and Gerry in their room."

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/KATE-MCCANN_ARGUIDO.htm

Fair point, can't argue with that - but for this theory Madeleine was in her bed, very much alive. The disturbance on the Tuesday was from a known origin.