Was Gerry's visit to 5a and the sighting of a man carrying a child related?

[Brietta]

No one has said possibilities are evidence.  I can't believe I have to write it again.  The disappearance is the evidence, it's evidence of one of two or three scenarios.  In the same way that missing valuables from an apartment is evidence that someone may have entered your flat illegally.

Caller:  I think someone's entered my house while I was out
Police: What evidence do you have of a break-in?
Caller: Well I left the door unlocked but when I entered the flat I noticed the window was open and my valuables taken.

The police will treat this as evidence that a crime may have been committed and may attend.  If you phone up the police and say "I think someone has entered my house while I was out" and can offer no evidence such as missing goods or open window, they're unlikely to take your call that seriously.

In my opinion your report certainly wouldn't be for a fraudulent insurance claim ... the unlocked door would nullify any claim.

You would have the interest of the police particularly if there was evidence of other burglaries in the vicinity.

[slartibartfast]

Does a theory have a conclusion?

Usually

[G-Unit]

If Amaral's theory had any merit why was he sacked and why didn't subsequent investigations invoke the rule of law guided by his theory?

'His' theory was one of those mentioned in the archiving dispatch, so was never abandoned.

[Brietta]

'His' theory was one of those mentioned in the archiving dispatch, so was never abandoned.

Funny you should mention the archiving dispatch ... that is the document in which the Policia Judiciria intimated that when the Smith family were witnessing the man carrying a child ...
"It was established that at the time that was being mentioned, GERALD McCANN was sitting at
the table, in the Tapas Restaurant."
By the time of which the Amaral theory had in my opinion all but had been airbrushed out of the equation ... although he kept it embellished with additions such as the shared coffin 'solution'.

[Robittybob1]

Funny you should mention the archiving dispatch ... that is the document in which the Policia Judiciria intimated that when the Smith family were witnessing the man carrying a child ...
"It was established that at the time that was being mentioned, GERALD McCANN was sitting at
the table, in the Tapas Restaurant."
By the time of which the Amaral theory had in my opinion all but had been airbrushed out of the equation ... although he kept it embellished with additions such as the shared coffin 'solution'.

I can't get past thinking that means Amaral discounted Gerry being Smithman, in which case if the PJ were to seriously look for Smithman they would need to consider an abduction  by a non-family member.

[jassi]

I can't get past thinking that means Amaral discounted Gerry being Smithman, in which case if the PJ were to seriously look for Smithman they would need to consider an abduction  by a non-family member.

Or an innocent minding his own business and declining to get involved in the subsequent circus.

[Robittybob1]

Or an innocent minding his own business and declining to get involved in the subsequent circus.

A man carrying a child in the right time frame within 500 meters from the apartments surely deserved more attention!  OK it could have been as you say but was it ever investigated?

[G-Unit]

Funny you should mention the archiving dispatch ... that is the document in which the Policia Judiciria intimated that when the Smith family were witnessing the man carrying a child ...
"It was established that at the time that was being mentioned, GERALD McCANN was sitting at
the table, in the Tapas Restaurant."
By the time of which the Amaral theory had in my opinion all but had been airbrushed out of the equation ... although he kept it embellished with additions such as the shared coffin 'solution'.

By 'archiving dispatch' I meant the legal summary by the prosecutor in which he orders the archiving of the case. Those words don't appear in that document afaik.

[Brietta]

I can't get past thinking that means Amaral discounted Gerry being Smithman, in which case if the PJ were to seriously look for Smithman they would need to consider an abduction  by a non-family member.

In my opinion Amaral's interest in Smithman was somewhat neglected until he thought Martin Smith could identify Gerry.

Snip
I have watched a good deal of news coverage about the McCanns over the past week or so. Another thing which has played on my mind is the coverage of Mr McCann walking off the aeroplane holding one of his young children. The way he was holding the child over his left shoulder reminded me of the man carrying the child from the white van in Portugal.

Although I could not describe the male I'd seen in Portugal because he had his back to me, it was the particular way Mr. McCann held the child that made me think. He held the child over his left shoulder with his left arm supporting the child?s weight.  Richard McCluskey
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RI_Mc.htm

Two flies in the ointment perhaps.  The first being almost exactly the same statement as that made by Mr Smith had already been given by Mr McCluskey in good faith some time before, had been checked and found him to be mistaken.

The second being the number of witnesses who attested to the fact that Gerry was seated at the dining table in the tapas restaurant when a man carrying a child was witnessed by the Smiths.

[Brietta]

By 'archiving dispatch' I meant the legal summary by the prosecutor in which he orders the archiving of the case. Those words don't appear in that document afaik.

Then why don't you as per forum protocol provide the cite to which you refer.

[faithlilly]

In my opinion Amaral's interest in Smithman was somewhat neglected until he thought Martin Smith could identify Gerry.

Snip
I have watched a good deal of news coverage about the McCanns over the past week or so. Another thing which has played on my mind is the coverage of Mr McCann walking off the aeroplane holding one of his young children. The way he was holding the child over his left shoulder reminded me of the man carrying the child from the white van in Portugal.

Although I could not describe the male I'd seen in Portugal because he had his back to me, it was the particular way Mr. McCann held the child that made me think. He held the child over his left shoulder with his left arm supporting the child?s weight.  Richard McCluskey
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RI_Mc.htm

Two flies in the ointment perhaps.  The first being almost exactly the same statement as that made by Mr Smith had already been given by Mr McCluskey in good faith some time before, had been checked and found him to be mistaken.

The second being the number of witnesses who attested to the fact that Gerry was seated at the dining table in the tapas restaurant when a man carrying a child was witnessed by the Smiths.

Not one independent witness puts Gerry at the tapas table at the time of the Smith sighting

The problem Rebelo, and Amaral before him, had was that seven witnesses gave Gerry an alibi for the time of the sighting and that alibi would have been almost impossible to break without further eye witness evidence.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Not one independent witness puts Gerry at the tapas table at the time of the Smith sighting

The problem Rebelo, and Amaral before him, had was that seven witnesses gave Gerry an alibi for the time of the sighting and that alibi would have been almost impossible to break without further eye witness evidence.

How many further sightings would be required to break the alibi do you think and are you of the opinion it's likely that one or more additional witnesses have come out of the woodwork in the last 5 years to confirm with 100% certainty that they saw Gerry carrying a corpse through PdL?  And even if further people did after all these years, wouldn't that raise some serious questions about a) their own reliability b) their own motivations? 

[faithlilly]

How many further sightings would be required to break the alibi do you think and are you of the opinion it's likely that one or more additional witnesses have come out of the woodwork in the last 5 years to confirm with 100% certainty that they saw Gerry carrying a corpse through PdL?  And even if further people did after all these years, wouldn't that raise some serious questions about a) their own reliability b) their own motivations?

A few independent witnesses would be required to break the alibi imo. Unfortunately, as far as we know, there are none.

As to additional witnesses, no idea but OG must have thought that there may witnesses who had not come forward previously or why publicise Smithman ?

[Vertigo Swirl]

A few independent witnesses would be required to break the alibi imo. Unfortunately, as far as we know, there are none.

As to additional witnesses, no idea but OG must have thought that there may witnesses who had not come forward previously or why publicise Smithman ?

Because Smithman's appearance was previously unknown to the general public, and few (apart from die-hard case followers) knew of his existence anyway, whereas Gerry McCann has been in the public eye for nigh on 11 years, so....  I'm just curious to know what evidences you think the Met are actually collecting that means the net is closing in on the McCanns, because short of a signed confession from one of the Tapas group I can't imagine what that might be.

[Robittybob1]

Because Smithman's appearance was previously unknown to the general public, and few (apart from die-hard case followers) knew of his existence anyway, whereas Gerry McCann has been in the public eye for nigh on 11 years, so....  I'm just curious to know what evidences you think the Met are actually collecting that means the net is closing in on the McCanns, because short of a signed confession from one of the Tapas group I can't imagine what that might be.

What about a signed confession from one of the Tapas group as to what they did?   I think this is the most possible event, and we are hinting toward it with Heriberto's post where he thinks Jane saw the abductor at 9:50.  That is a possibility in real life but can't be supported by the file, so it would require new information.
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=9418.msg459298#msg459298