Goncalo Amaral.

[Mr Gray]

Just that if she was the victim of child sexual abuse then statistically it is more likely that someone close to the family was the perpetrator. It's not a scenario that I've seen any evidence for aside from the Gaspar statement (which would not prove anything in a courtroom).

I would say statistically its most likely Maddie was abducted by a stranger... You are misusing the statistics

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

I would say statistically its most likely Maddie was abducted by a stranger... You are misusing the statistics

Good luck finding the statistics to back that claim up!

I'm not goading you by the way. I genuinely do not believe the statistics support your opinion.... but also remember they are just statistics. Stranger abduction does happen.

[Mr Gray]

Good luck finding the statistics to back that claim up!

I'm not goading you by the way. I genuinely do not believe the statistics support your opinion.... but also remember they are just statistics. Stranger abduction does happen.

Ill post my explanation tomorrow... No offence taken

[Venturi Swirl]

From https://www.d2l.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Statistics_2_Perpetrators.pdf

About 90% of children who are victims
of abuse know their abuser.

Only 10% of sexually abused children are abused
by a stranger.

Approximately 30% of children who are sexually
abused are abused by family members.

The younger the victim, the more likely it is that
the abuser is a family member. Of those molesting
a child under six, 50% were family members.

Family members also accounted for 23% of those
abusing children ages 12 to 17

About 60% of children who are
sexually abused are abused by the
people the family trusts.

And 50% weren’t.

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

And 50% weren’t.

And "only" 1 in 10 victims were abused by a stranger.(I don't like the use of the word "only" on that pdf. 1 in 10 is one too many imo!!)

[Venturi Swirl]

Just that if she was the victim of child sexual abuse then statistically it is more likely that someone close to the family was the perpetrator. It's not a scenario that I've seen any evidence for aside from the Gaspar statement (which would not prove anything in a courtroom).

If she was abducted by a paedophile then statistically she is far more likely to have been a victim of child abuse than had she not been.  Statistically Claudia Lawrence is far more likely to have been run over than abducted by a stranger.  2800 random people are far more likely to die of cancer than in two skyscrapers in NY that are destroyed by planes flown by terrorists. Statistics are not going to help anyone solve this mystery so quite pointless introducing them to the discussion .  IMO

[Venturi Swirl]

And "only" 1 in 10 victims were abused by a stranger.(I don't like the use of the word "only" on that pdf. 1 in 10 is one too many imo!!)

That’s a large number, if thousands are abused each year.

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

If she was abducted by a paedophile then statistically she is far more likely to have been a victim of child abuse than had she not been.  Statistically Claudia Lawrence is far more likely to have been run over than abducted by a stranger.  2800 random people are far more likely to die of cancer than in two skyscrapers in NY that are destroyed by planes flown by terrorists. Statistics are not going to help anyone solve this mystery so quite pointless introducing them to the discussion .  IMO

I agree. Evidence is the key not statistics.

[Brietta]

And in  the vast majority of those cases the abuse is carried out by a family member or someone known to the family.

Bearing in mind that this thread is about Goncalo Amaral - why do you think it is appropriate to be discussing abused children in a family setting?

[Brietta]

What on earth do you mean?

The links weren't to "perverts" but to experts in crime, criminology and forensics:

David Canter
PhD, FAcSS, Hon FBPsS, FRSM, FAPA, C.Psychol, MA (music composition)
Applied social psychologist, creator of Investigative Psychology. Emeritus Professor at The University of Liverpool,
Visiting Professor at Liverpool Hope University.
 Internationally known for introducing scientific psychology into ‘offender profiling’ and developing the field of Investigative Psychology beyond those origins,

Dave Barclay (Forensics)
I am currently an Honorary Professor at the University of Hull, and I am on the Advisory Board of the International Homicide Investigators Association, an organisation funded by the US Government.
I was a practising forensic scientist accredited by the UK Home Office as an authorised analyst from 1972, and from 1996 until I retired in 2005 was Head of Physical Evidence at the National Crime and Operations Faculty (NCOF), Bramshill. NCOF is a UK wide organisation funded by the Police Service to provide expertise and operational support in the most complex crimes of violence such as rape series, stranger murders and the murders of children or vulnerable adults. During my NCOF duties I reviewed approximately 235 undetected murders or murder series in the UK and worldwide.
I have reviewed cases at the request of the authorities in the USA, Canada, Holland, Germany, Portugal, South Africa and many in Australia including the Claremont series of murders and the proven Miscarriage of Justice known as the ‘Andrew Mallard case’ (murder of Pamela Lawrence, Perth 1994).
I have published and lectured extensively world wide on these subjects, and have given keynote lectures at over 15 investigative, scientific or education conferences. I was the scientific advisor to the 2005 UK Parliamentary Select Committee on Forensic Science.

What is the big hang up about paedophilia and paedophiles;  this thread concerns Goncalo Amaral.

[misty]

In other news, Amaral is apparently releasing a new book in October. I believe Isabelle said it's an autobiography but somehow news of the book got lost within 90 mins of pomposity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmIJQ5CzpNU&list=LL&index=1

[Brietta]

From https://www.d2l.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Statistics_2_Perpetrators.pdf

About 90% of children who are victims
of abuse know their abuser.

Only 10% of sexually abused children are abused
by a stranger.

Approximately 30% of children who are sexually
abused are abused by family members.

The younger the victim, the more likely it is that
the abuser is a family member. Of those molesting
a child under six, 50% were family members.

Family members also accounted for 23% of those
abusing children ages 12 to 17

About 60% of children who are
sexually abused are abused by the
people the family trusts.

Why do you feel the need to inform us of this - how do you think it relates to a thread which is quite clearly about Goncalo Amaral.

[Venturi Swirl]

In other news, Amaral is apparently releasing a new book in October. I believe Isabelle said it's an autobiography but somehow news of the book got lost within 90 mins of pomposity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmIJQ5CzpNU&list=LL&index=1

LOL.  I lasted 60 seconds.  Does it really go on for 90 minutes and did you actually listen to the whole thing?

[Brietta]

LOL.  I lasted 60 seconds.  Does it really go on for 90 minutes and did you actually listen to the whole thing?

I managed 1:10minutes ~ life is too short!

You deserve a medal if you managed to stick it out Misty.  But so far ~ not much mention of the next best seller?

[misty]

LOL.  I lasted 60 seconds.  Does it really go on for 90 minutes and did you actually listen to the whole thing?

It's actually 114mins but I quit after 90 & just fast forwarded, checking at 3 or 4 min gaps. I think I need my head examined.