Author Topic: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive  (Read 13566 times)

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Offline jassi

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #180 on: October 10, 2018, 09:32:53 PM »
I think it is still a 50~50% consideration whether Madeleine is alive or not and in the absence of information to the contrary it is my opinion she has to be given the benefit of the doubt.


Fat lot of good that will do - IMO
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -   Into year 13 and still no solution.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #181 on: October 10, 2018, 09:50:26 PM »
This is what stands out to me.......

Gerry said: 'We could have lost the twins too. There were three children in the room. That's the worst nightmare...



So finding maddie gone wasn't the worst nightmare.....

They left them all ...but thankfully only took one sounds like to me.......imo

something that should not have been said.....nothing could be worse than finding one gone....

no thanks to kate running out of the room window open door open yer right ....imo

sorry sunny ...it was intended for briettas postt....

Classic Gerry! He likes making massive blunders and some question why it's still going after 11 years. Can't think why  *%87

May 2007
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Miss Taken Identity

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #182 on: October 10, 2018, 09:57:33 PM »
Oh I missed  that bit...

Gerry said: 'We could have lost the twins too. There were three children in the room. That's the worst nightmare...


Well Gerry, I suppose when you put it like that  its not all bad eh?

That quote is up there with the judge asking what was worse- the book or losing their daughter...

No. No. I am going to let you work that one out for yourself.. go on give it a try! ^*&&
'Never underestimate the power of stupid people'... George Carlin

Offline Sunny

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #183 on: October 10, 2018, 10:16:37 PM »
Here is a strange comment by Kate McCann

Mrs McCann, 40, said: 'I don't feel as if Madeleine is dead. I really feel she is out there and we will find her. The chances of her being alive are as good now, if not better, than they were after the first three days of her going missing.'


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1017189/Where-night-Kate-What-grandmother-said-told-Madeleine-snatched.html
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Offline Robittybob1

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Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #184 on: October 10, 2018, 10:47:36 PM »
I thnk it depends on which theory you follow /believe.

If you believe she was snatched from bed alive by paedophiles then , the chances of her still being alive after one week would be very  slim.

If she walked an wandered and was knocked down by a passing car/found to be dead  and was then lifted by the driver...

If she had an accident in the home  and died ...

I just cannot see a theory where she would still be alive,unless she was abducted from the street after wandering- she could be a slave of sorts.

 But then, her parents and supporters do not want this wandering looking for parents theory. So  95% chance she is not alive. IMO
Thanks for your answer.  Can a parent's opinion have any bearing on the event.  That is what I find strange about this case, in that we listen to Gerry saying Madeleine didn't get out and wander.  How would he know?

I'm more of the thought that we are looking at the "residual possibilities".  I don't know if that is a term used before but since so many things have been ruled out, what is left and what are the residual probability Madeleine is alive and it becomes higher, because there are fewer explanations left to work through.
But when it comes to calculating probabilities I've always struggled so I could be very wrong.







« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 10:55:25 PM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline barrier

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #185 on: October 11, 2018, 07:03:07 AM »
Thanks for your answer.  Can a parent's opinion have any bearing on the event.  That is what I find strange about this case, in that we listen to Gerry saying Madeleine didn't get out and wander.  How would he know?

I'm more of the thought that we are looking at the "residual possibilities".  I don't know if that is a term used before but since so many things have been ruled out, what is left and what are the residual probability Madeleine is alive and it becomes higher, because there are fewer explanations left to work through.
But when it comes to calculating probabilities I've always struggled so I could be very wrong.
Using the same calculation if there is one,what is the residual probability the girl was alive when removed from 5a,remembering Redwood thoughts on it.
    Can you build an Emerald city with these grains of sand?       


Offline xtina

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #186 on: October 11, 2018, 08:10:34 AM »
Oh I missed  that bit...

Gerry said: 'We could have lost the twins too. There were three children in the room. That's the worst nightmare...


Well Gerry, I suppose when you put it like that  its not all bad eh?

That quote is up there with the judge asking what was worse- the book or losing their daughter...

No. No. I am going to let you work that one out for yourself.. go on give it a try! ^*&&


IMO....the time spent hounding him ....the money spent doing it ....

IMO the book caused them more trauma grief.....


OH and kmcc could forgive the abducter...but not GA

So without a doubt IMO ...the book
Always listen to both sides of the story before you judge.

The first storyteller you will always find has modified the story, for there benefit BE WISE.

Offline Lace

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #187 on: October 11, 2018, 09:57:23 AM »
Here is a strange comment by Kate McCann

Mrs McCann, 40, said: 'I don't feel as if Madeleine is dead. I really feel she is out there and we will find her. The chances of her being alive are as good now, if not better, than they were after the first three days of her going missing.'


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1017189/Where-night-Kate-What-grandmother-said-told-Madeleine-snatched.html

I don't think it's a strange comment.  The first three days they were just thinking the worst had happened, Madeleine had been taken by a paedophile and murdered.   After a year,  no body being found other theories of what could have happened to Madeleine they had hope.   IMO

Offline xtina

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #188 on: October 11, 2018, 10:18:24 AM »
I don't think it's a strange comment.  The first three days they were just thinking the worst had happened, Madeleine had been taken by a paedophile and murdered.   After a year,  no body being found other theories of what could have happened to Madeleine they had hope.   IMO


Oh right.....yet they started the bucket in the foyer...almost immediately...

was that just in case then......
Always listen to both sides of the story before you judge.

The first storyteller you will always find has modified the story, for there benefit BE WISE.

Offline Sunny

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #189 on: October 13, 2018, 11:23:39 AM »
I don't think it's a strange comment.  The first three days they were just thinking the worst had happened, Madeleine had been taken by a paedophile and murdered.   After a year,  no body being found other theories of what could have happened to Madeleine they had hope.   IMO

Kate's hope of Madeleine being alive may be higher after the first 3 but any chances of her being found alive would have at least remained the same or gone down.  They definitely wouldn't have gone up IMO.
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Offline Snowgirl

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #190 on: October 13, 2018, 01:21:45 PM »
How do the percentages work?  On the the 2nd May 2007 - there was 100% certainty Madeleine was alive.
On the night of the 3rd once she went missing was it 50%  ie either alive or dead.
I suppose anyone who has her each moment has the opportunity of killing her or of some other reason she can die e.g. an accident or illness.
So the possibility of her death must continually rise.
bib, can this be said with absolute certainty ?

Offline Gertrude

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #191 on: October 13, 2018, 01:43:57 PM »
Here is a strange comment by Kate McCann

Mrs McCann, 40, said: 'I don't feel as if Madeleine is dead. I really feel she is out there and we will find her. The chances of her being alive are as good now, if not better, than they were after the first three days of her going missing.'


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1017189/Where-night-Kate-What-grandmother-said-told-Madeleine-snatched.html

But they were convinced straight away a paedophile took her?  They don't generally keep children around for long. This is maybe the oddest statement I've heard from them ( and there are many).

   Added to this, they have a large amount of money in the fund and they don't commission any more up to date age progression images of the daughter they think is alive and out there?!

Offline slartibartfast

Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #192 on: October 13, 2018, 02:22:49 PM »
How do the percentages work?  On the the 2nd May 2007 - there was 100% certainty Madeleine was alive.
On the night of the 3rd once she went missing was it 50%  ie either alive or dead.
I suppose anyone who has her each moment has the opportunity of killing her or of some other reason she can die e.g. an accident or illness.
So the possibility of her death must continually rise.

The percentages are not as simple as you suggest.

On the 2nd May the chance of her being alive was high, probably high 90%s.

The percentage probabilities on the night of the 3rd would depend on which of the main likelihood’s happened and on the associated probability of death of each.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline Robittybob1

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Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #193 on: October 13, 2018, 06:08:29 PM »
Kate's hope of Madeleine being alive may be higher after the first 3 but any chances of her being found alive would have at least remained the same or gone down.  They definitely wouldn't have gone up IMO.
That said maybe true but in my heart I'm thinking it is rising again now that Madeleine is growing up.
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Offline Robittybob1

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Re: "no evidence" to support a theory missing girl Madeleine McCann is alive
« Reply #194 on: October 13, 2018, 06:10:24 PM »
bib, can this be said with absolute certainty ?
I think so (unless your name is Richard D Hall).
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